ASSERTION, China wants to control the world, as in, “To exercise authoritative or dominative influence over.” One might even alter this official definition by substituting “and” for “or”.
PART TWO OF TWO
U.S. MILITARY DETERRENCE:
Deterrence is a mind-set outside the U.S. Simply stated, our allies trust us to have their back in international affairs and our enemies fear our military capabilities and willingness to take them on.
Here is a summary of an unclassified on-line U.S. military operation that definitively illustrates deterrence on today’s battlefields and the connection between small unit operations to the military’s most senior leaders.
June, 2014: U.S. Launched Operation Inherent Resolve to destroy the Islamic State Group in Iraq and Syria, ISIS. Russia had committed military forces to Syria. The U.S. was allied with Kurdish and Syrian Democratic Forces against ISIS. Russia and the U.S. had opened a communications hotline to avoid direct conflict with each other.
February, 2018: During one afternoon a small group of 30 U.S. Special Operations Forces plus their local forces watched surveillance drone feed as an enemy force of about 500 troops, 27 vehicles and Russian tanks and armored personnel carriers, about 20 miles away, positioned itself to attack the small U.S. outpost. The Russian element consisted of Wagner Group personnel. Wagner Group is a private military company of mercenaries that operates beyond the law under the control of President Putin. The U.S. higher headquarters in Qatar was alerted and air support was placed on strip-alert. At 8:30 p.m. the enemy force moved out and a near-by U.S. ground quick reaction force launched in support with anti-tank missiles. The enemy opened fire at 10:30. By then, former General Jim Mattis, then Secretary of Defense, was on the hotline with his Russian counterpart who declared the attackers were not Russians. Mattis, later testified before Congress, saying he immediately called the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs and told him to take out the enemy force.
Waves of F-22 fighters, F-15E strike fighters, AH-64 Apache attack helicopters, AC-130 gunships, B-52 bombers, MQ-9 Reaper drones and Marine artillery relentlessly attacked the enemy force. An enemy Russian mercenary survivor later said, “We should never have been there; our leadership messed up. The Americans knew exactly where we were.” About 1:00 a.m. the surviving enemy force fled the area leaving behind 200-300 KIA. One Syrian soldier at the outpost was wounded. There were no U.S. casualties.
A month later, a group of Syrian fighters and Russian mercenaries began a similar buildup, also near an American outpost. This time when the Sec Def called his Russian counterpart the enemy force immediately dispersed. That is deterrence in action on today’s battlefields in today’s ugly world where enemy countries, led by thugs, only understand power or the lack thereof.
January 2021- April 2023: Within the last two years, the Biden administration has dictated that the U.S. military, as an organization, sign up to diversity, inclusion and equity, DEI. This flies in the face of everything a capable military force must be and do. “Equity” is pure poison to any military organization. A new generation of leaders is being DEI indoctrinated. The force can no longer recruit America’s best and brightest. Across the board, military standards are being lowered. Meritocracy, the foundation of every military organization from squad to Army-level commands, is dying or already dead; mediocracy rules the day and the future is bleak.
August, 2021: U.S. deterrence died when our Commander in Chief directed the cut-and-run operation from Afghanistan. Our in-country allies were left dumb-founded and in harm’s way from the immediate Taliban takeover. U.S. citizens were left stranded in Afghanistan. Our long-time loyal individual Afghan supporters on the ground were abandoned and left to be hunted down and killed by the Taliban. All of this unfolded on the world stage within a few days.
6 April, 2023: The White House released a 12-page after action review of the Afghanistan withdrawal. A National Security Council spokesperson took questions as the President shuffled off to his helicopter for a long weekend at Camp David. The bottom line is that the Biden Administration, true to form, blamed the whole thing on President Trump. The report actually named Trump 14 times and uses the word “accountability” once. A fact-checked review of key actions tells a very different story. This was, pure and simple, Biden’s withdrawal; here’s why:
February, 2020: The U.S. negotiated a withdrawal agreement with the Taliban that included many requirements and concessions from both sides. The date set for final withdrawal was 1 May, 2021.
2020: Negotiations continued throughout the year with the Taliban continuously failing to meet their end of the agreement.
15 January, 2021: U.S. force levels reached 2500 as required by the agreement.
19 February, 2021: Biden, “My administration strongly supports the diplomatic process that’s underway and to bring an end to this war that is closing out 20 years.” AT THAT POINT, BIDEN OWNED IT, PERIOD.
7 March, 2021: Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he is “concerned that the security situation will worsen and the Taliban could make rapid territorial gains.” BIDEN IS AWARE OF THE TENUOUS SITUATION.
25 March, 2021: Gen. Richard Clarke, commander of the U.S. Special Operations Command, testifies before the Senate Armed Services Committee that “it is clear that the Taliban have not upheld what they said they would do and reduce the violence.” MORE INPUT TO BIDEN.
14 April, 2021: Biden announces that all troops will be removed by 11 September, 2021.
18 May, 2021 The Defense Department IG reports that during the first three months of 2021, “The Taliban initiated 37% more attacks than during the same period in 2020,” MORE INPUT TO THE PRESIDENT.
6 July, 2021: The U.S. military has pulled out of Bagram Airfield. Why? Because the command could not simultaneously secure/operate Bagram Airbase and the U.S Embassy (Biden’s first priority for security) in Kabul with only 2,500 troops.
8 July, 2021 Biden moves up the timeline for full troop withdrawal to Aug. 31, saying, “the likelihood there’s going to be the Taliban overrunning everything and owning the whole country is highly unlikely.”
6 August, 2021: The Taliban takes control of its first province despite the agreement it signed with the U.S.
15 August, 2021: Taliban fighters enter the capital; Afghan president flees the country; U.S. evacuates the embassy by helicopter.
Note: during the critical days of the collapse, Biden was at Camp David instead of in the White House situation room with his National Security team.
16 August, 2021: In a speech to the nation, Biden said, “I do not regret my decision to end America’s warfighting in Afghanistan,” and deflected blame for the government’s swift collapse.
26 August. 2021: 13 U.S. service members were killed by a suicide bomber at the Kabul airport. Why? Because the Bagram Airbase had been closed prematurely to meet troop constraint numbers. All air operation could have/should have been conducted out of a secure Bagram, not the unsecured Kabul airport. At any time during the chaotic early hours of the withdrawal, additional U.S./NATO troops could have/should have been brought in to renew Bagram operations.
31 August.2021: In a speech to the nation, Biden calls the Afghan withdrawal an, “extraordinary success.”
6 April, 2023: Following the release of the withdrawal after action review, the White House spokesperson said the administration is “proud” of the Afghanistan withdrawal. Tell that to the families of the 13 dead service members, Mr. President. But the president did not hear that statement because he snuck out of the White House, avoided reporters by not using the South Lawn helipad, motored to Fort McNair and took his helicopter to Camp David for an extended Easter vacation. Pathetic leadership/accountability.
U.S. VULNERABILITIES:
Given that our deterrent posture has been shattered, that a New World Order led by China is rapidly emerging, that our reliance on decades-old alliances is suspect or nonexistent and, given the status of current U.S. leadership, where does the U.S. stand on the issue of vulnerability? let’s take a look at some of what our enemies may be capable of doing to us.
6 May, 2021, CYBER-ATTACK: A cyber-attack, believed to have been initiated in Russia, shut down one of the US’ largest (5,500 miles) pipelines, highlighting heightened concerns over the vulnerability of the nation’s critical infrastructure. The attack shut down the flow of gasoline and jet fuel across the South and up to New York for about a week. This is an example of our vulnerability to cyber-attacks. It was only an inconvenience but was certainly proof-of-concept success for Russia.
Biden’s response: Biden and Putin met a month later at a scheduled international conference where Biden told reporters, “I gave him a list of 16 specific entities defined a critical infrastructure under U.S. policy from the energy sector to our water systems.” This ridiculous response simply raised the question, is everything that is not on the list fair game for attack? A different response might have been a phone call; something like this:
“Vlad, this is Joe. I just shut down your gas and oil pipeline to China. I’m sure you will soon be hearing from our friend Xi. My people tell me that no matter what your techies do, we can keep it down for at least a month. I see three alternatives. One, you do nothing. Two, you retaliate with another cyberattack on the U.S. Keep in mind that we have all of your other pipelines queued up to also be immediately shut down. Or three, you and I can agree, today, that neither of us will ever again initiate a cyberattack on each other. I need your answer by this afternoon. Have a nice day, goodbye.”
China, Russia, North Korea and Iran all have sophisticated cyber-attack capabilities. Imagine if they ganged up under guidance from China and shut down all of the major gasoline pipelines for a month? We would likely see massive lawlessness and the beginnings of anarchy throughout the nation.
3 December, 2022, POWER GRID: I was home in North Carolina when the lights went out. We were soon informed by Duke Energy that shooters had taken out two nearby electrical distribution substations leaving about 40,000 residents without electrical power for several days.
How vulnerable is our power grid? At least 6 such attacks occurred across the nation in 2021 and 20 in 2022.
Power Grid Facts: The power grid is a distribution system of power plants, substations, transformers, and power lines with about 55,000 substations like the one near my home in NC. The systems are increasingly decrepit, poorly maintained and frightfully vulnerable to accidents, disasters and enemy action including cyber warfare. Most of the system is unguarded. Low-tech in nature, these attacks can be highly organized and professionally executed.
Because the entire grid is so complex, any failure in the system has the possibility of creating a, “cascading failure effect”. When that happens, shutdowns can cascade like dominoes and it is possible for the entire grid to be subject to shutting down.
How vulnerable are we? Of the 55,000 substations there are 30 that are most critical for interconnection of the entire grid. Furthermore, by initiating a coordinated attack and destroying only 9 of those 30 interconnected substations, studies estimate the entire U.S. grid could be down for, “at least 18 months, probably longer.”
Instantly it would not be 2023, it would be like 1823 or perhaps 1723 and we are not prepared for that. Consider this short list of what would no longer be available: water supply, telecommunications, food production and delivery, fuel extraction, refining, and distribution, law enforcement, emergency services, hospitals, and the reality that you may never hear from family and loved ones again; ever.
Immediate anarchy would prevail and tens of millions of Americans would be dead in the first month.
Could this happen? Yes, consider just this one scenario: Iran is the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism with access to and some control over most terrorist organizations. Iran’s leadership is morally corrupt and would like nothing more than to achieve their long-term and frequently stated goal of “Death to America.”
The above information leads one to believe that a dozen 3-4-person terrorist teams of marksmen could simultaneously take down the 9 critical substations out of the existing 55,000 and thereby take America into darkness. Where would the terrorist teams come from? They may already be here after coming across our open border. Were the 20 attacks last year simply a series of proof-of-concept operations?
2023, UNPREPARED FOR WAR:
Results from recent war-game simulations with U.S. vs China in the South China Sea, conclude the U.S. would run out of some types of critical guided missiles within a week. This is all unclassified information available to anyone including China.
Military equipment and munitions to Ukraine has reduced war reserves to such dangerously low levels that, under current production capabilities, some will not be renewed for 5-8 years. For example, there is one U.S. production facility for 155mm howitzer shells and The U.S. is capable of producing about 14,000 per month. On average Ukraine is firing 7,700 each day. You do the math.
Recent testimony in a Congressional committee revealed that the U.S. is currently dependent on imports of certain rare metals from China and Russia for the production of bullets, explosives, nuclear weapons and an array of military equipment. For example, there is no domestic mine for antimony, a rare metal required in the production of ammunition. The U.S. currently relies almost entirely on China for antimony in order to be able to produce a single bullet.
ENERGY DEPENDENCE:
3 April, 2023: Saudi-led oil producers announced they will cut oil production by one million barrels a day beginning in May. Since Biden’s assault on the U.S. fossil-fuel production we are continuously vulnerable to oil production abroad. This is a serious national security issue that the president will not even address.
STRATEGIC OIL RESERVES:
Strategic reserves are dangerously low. One year ago, we had 577 million barrels and today it is 371 million; down 36% in one year. Why? Biden sold off reserves to reduce U.S. gas prices prior to the 2022 election. The U.S. consumption rate is about 20 million barrels per day. Another serious national security issue.
ONE OF MANY EXAMPLES OF OUR OVER-DEPENDENCE ON CHINA:
Medicine: Chinese firms supply more than 90% of U.S. antibiotics, 70% of Tylenol and recent studies found that about 80% of the basic ingredients in U.S.-produced drugs come from China. Imagine a call from Xi Jinping to Biden: “ I have just ordered the cancelation of all shipments of pharmaceuticals to the U.S. unless you do (or don’t do) “X”. I need to know your decision this afternoon.” You get the picture, that’s leverage that would impact the life of every American. Leverage we do not have.
LEADERSHIP WEAKNESS:
28 January, 2023: The Chinese spy balloon entered Alaska air space, collected data for seven days and was shot down. What did Biden do? Nothing.
14 March, 2023: A Russian fighter jet shot down a U.S. drone over the Black Sea. What did Biden do? Nothing.
SOUTH CHINA SEA:
1988: I was the deputy plans officer for the Pacific and Indian Ocean regions at U.S. Pacific Command Headquarters in Hawaii. I recall discussions about and seeing photos of habitable shacks on stilts being placed on reefs in the South China Sea by the Chinese. They would raise a flag, somehow provide provisions to the inhabitants and declare it was Chinese sovereign territory. Today structures at three of the man-made islands have been fully militarized with anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile systems, laser and jamming equipment and long runways for fighter jets in order to be capable of controlling any nation utilizing those shipping lanes. It’s important to note that one-third of all global shipping transits the South China Sea lanes. Additionally, Japan and South Korea together import about 5 million barrels of oil per day on that sea lane which can now be controlled by China. Without massive oil imports our two principal allies in that region, Japan and Korea, would be powerless within a few weeks. Another example of control resulting from brilliant long-range strategic planning and execution by China.
CHINA’S NAVAL FORCES:
2023: To control the world, China needs a world-class navy. In the past few years China has concentrated on building modern surface combatants, submarines, aircraft carriers, fighter jets, amphibious assault ships, ballistic nuclear missile submarines, large coast guard cutters and polar icebreakers. Its Navy has more than tripled in size in only two decades and has become the world’s largest naval force; and there is no end in sight.
ELECCTROMAGNETIC PULSE, EMP:
An EMP occurs naturally in space but can also be a burst of electromagnetic energy produced by a nuclear explosion in the atmosphere. It is the ultimate weapon capable of completely destroying America in seconds. The size of the nuclear weapon and the altitude at which it is detonated determines the size of the destruction area. We will not see any damage but the electronic pulse will simply take out the electric grid and every object that has an electric component. For example, every vehicle would die in place and never move again. Every gadget in our homes would be worthless. No communications, water pumps, transportation, production, emergency services, nothing would work. U.S. nuclear retaliation would not be possible. Lawlessness would prevail; ammunition would become the operative currency. We would be a nation of hunter-gatherers and within weeks die by the tens of millions. Only a few would survive.
China and Russia have this capability. North Korea may have it. Iran wants it.
CONCLUSIONS:
Organizations that are great long range strategic planners, like China, also tend towards agility and are capable of capitalizing on an unforeseen occurrence and accelerating their time line to achieve their end-state. That unforeseen occurrence was the self-inflicted wound suffered by the U.S.’ despicable cut-and-run from Afghanistan in August 2021. Look at China’s aggressive global activities towards control over the past 18 months; it’s staggering. The Afghanistan withdrawal instantly created a circumstance that could lead to a rapid change towards a New World Order. U.S. leadership took a nose-dive in the minds of our enemies and allies. It created a vacuum that would/could be filled and China was ready, willing and able to do so.
We are moving towards an increasingly polarized world.
We have forfeited our decades-old military deterrent status.
What has commonly been known as the “West” for decades is without a leader.
While NATO continues to grow in numbers, it does not appear to be a force to be reckoned with to any adversary beyond Russia.
The do-nothing United Nations will remain powerless because of the one-veto power of China and Russia in the UN Security Council.
The U.S. must take immediate steps to regain our energy independence or risk being leveraged by a China-led Middle East.
This president and this Congress need to take immediate steps to energize our military industrial complex that can more rapidly refill depleted war reserves.
China is executing a plan to control the world and this administration has either chosen to not acknowledge it or we are aware but are clueless as to what to do about it.
“Woke warrior” is a contradiction. A woke military is a national security liability.
Global summary: Asian nations are generally aligned economically with China. Latin America dominoes are falling fast and aligning with China. Russia has an energy strangle-hold on Europe. Africa’s strategic value is its minerals; China has massive control. Irrational Iran will very soon join the nuclear club. The Middle East is a mess and China now has greater influence than the U.S. Right now, India is a wild-card on alignment with the U.S or China. U.S. strength in Asia is our alliance with Japan and South Korea; can we protect their sea lanes? North Korea is a very scary situation; rapidly advancing missile capability to deliver nuclear strikes and their leader, Kim Jong Un is an unpredictable nut-case. The depth and breadth of the alliances among China, Russia and Iran do not bode well for the free world.
Just wondering; what are the chances that Xi Jinping has a thick file in his lower right-hand desk drawer entitled, Hunter Biden?
President of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, tweeted: “Sadly, it’ll be very hard for US Foreign Policy to use arguments such as ‘democracy’ and ‘free and fair elections’ or try to condemn ‘political prosecution’ in other countries, from now on.”
In my decades of watching change, deterrence and vulnerability I have never seen anything as scary as what the United States of America is experiencing right now. I take no pleasure in depicting President Biden as a poor leader with questionable judgment and abilities. But don’t just take it from me: Robert Gates, Secretary of Defense for Obama/Biden administration, “Biden has been wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades.”
BOTTOM LINE:
A couple weeks age a current video appeared on TV news showing a small child alone on a very small raft drifting down the center of the Rio Grande River on our open southern border with a border patrol agent running along the Texas river bank seeking to somehow rescue the child from an impending disastrous conclusion. The child was, rudderless, leaderless, fearful, vulnerable and completely without control of his/her environment. What struck me as I watched that video was that I was watching an analogy of the United States of America at this moment in our history; rudderless, leaderless, fearful, vulnerable and completely without control of the world we live in. The difference being, we do not, figuratively speaking, have a border patrol agent watching over us.
While the United States of America is the only nation that can counter China’s relentless march towards control of the world, we are rapidly degenerating into an uneducated, lawless, tribal, woke nation mired in mediocracy.
Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO EXECUTION, a book for leaders, and a new book May 2022, FIX THE SYSTEMS, TRANSFORM AMERICA as well as the author of a blog WeThePeopleSpeaking.com.