UNITED STATES vs THE MEXICAN CARTELS

HEADLINES TODAY, 15 OCTOBER 2025:

Cartels issuing bounties up to $50,000 for hits on ICE and Customs and Border protection (CBP) officers.”

Cartels currently have operators in all 50 states.  Those operators have contact and probably some degree of control over foreign gangs active in our cities today; MS-13 for example.  This cartel bounty initiative can simple be a money-making mission for the gangs. They can begin tonight. 

Mr. President, it is time to act. Here is some background information and a concept of military operations for your review.

THE REAL STORY

Former President Biden tried to make us believe, “White supremacists are the most lethal threat to America.” That was just another diversional lie to the American people while Cartel drug kings were killing, on average, 294 mostly young Americans EVERY DAY in 2023 with drugs crossing the open southern border.

Fentanyl is the nation’s greatest and most urgent drug threat. Two milligrams (mg) of fentanyl are considered a potentially fatal dose. In 2023 the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) seized 29,048 pounds of fentanyl.  Let’s do the math.

There are 453,592 milligrams in one pound. Two, just 2, milligrams are considered a potentially lethal dose. That’s 227,000 lethal doses in EACH of the 29,048 pounds seized. The unknown number is how many thousands of pounds were not seized.  

Add to those horrific numbers the fact that in 2023 DEA also seized 79 million fentanyl pills and each pill tested in DEA laboratories averaged 2.4 mg of fentanyl, a potentially lethal dose.

The rest of the world also has a fentanyl problem but the Council on Foreign Relation reported that the U.S. had more fentanyl deaths in 2021 than the remainder of the world combined.

According to the DEA Administrator, Anne Milgram (2021-2025), the 2024 National Drug Threat Assessment tells us that “The shift from plant-based drugs, like heroin and cocaine, to synthetic, chemical-based drugs, like fentanyl and methamphetamine, has resulted in the most dangerous and deadly drug crisis the United States has ever faced.”

In four years, did you ever hear Biden discuss the dangers of Cartel exported drugs into the United States?  Neither did I.

CARTEL BACKGROUND:

Mexican Cartels are a narco-terrorist organizations operating inside the U.S. and they are gaining ground every day.

The primary actors are the Sinaloa Cartel, for many years the most dominant drug trafficking organization in Mexico. Cartel Jalisco is the emerging power; engaged in drug trafficking, kidnapping, extortion, oil pipeline tapping and general criminal activity.

Additionally in the mix are the Los Zetas Cartel, Gulf Cartel and Juarez Cartel. All are engaged in holding their current territory and/or expanding their territory thus creating one of the most violent areas in the world today with an enormous impact on the Mexican economy and society as a whole.    

A footnote to all of this is that fentanyl has changed everything. It is so profitable and can be moved in such small quantities thereby making the Cartels ever more empowered and enriched.

On 20 January after being sworn in as president, Trump named Tren de Aragua in Venezuela, MS-13 in El Salvador and six Mexican Carels as Foreign Terrorists Organizations.

By comparison, ISIS is a terrorist organization that took up lodging in Syria and Iraq and created a separate state from 2014 through 2017. The U.S. was instrumental in eliminating ISIS leaders and collapsing their caliphate. Could we, should we do the same to the Mexican terrorists Cartels? 

RECENT U.S. AND MEXICAN LEADERSHIP

President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, in office from 2018 to 2024 executed a non-confrontational security strategy against some of the most violent organizations in the world. During his morning briefing on 28 February, 2023, he referred to his strategy as “hugs not guns. Here we do not produce fentanyl, and we do not have consumption of fentanyl.” 

President Biden’s response to the narco-terrorists was, “the border is secure.” Let’s call it the head-in-the-sand security strategy.  Both leaders were pathetic, disappointing, an insult to our intelligence and clearly in violation of their oaths of office.

On 7 March, 2023 Senator Lindsey Graham said he was prepared to introduce a bill in Congress to set the stage for the U.S. to use military force in Mexico. Two days later Lopez Obrador called any plan for U.S. military action against the Cartels, “irresponsible.”

On 13 March Lopez Obrador additionally commented, “Mexico is safer than the United States; there is no problem traveling safely in Mexico.”  By the way, Mexico’s nationwide homicide rate at the time was 28 per 100,000 inhabitants while the U.S. was about one fourth that number.

The Biden administration never missed an opportunity to show off a confiscated shipment of drugs from Mexico. One event included more than 4.5 million fentanyl pills, 140 pounds of fentanyl powder, 3,000 pounds of methamphetamine and 135 kilograms of cocaine totaling a street value of roughly $13 million. That’s the good news. But the take-away from this comes from Anthony Coulson, a retired DEA special agent, who pointed out that. “A $13 million loss won’t stop the Sinaloa Cartel, first because it’s a drop in the bucket, and second, because this is to be expected. An insignificant loss such as this is just a normal part of their operation.”

What the Biden Administration did not do was speculate on the estimated quantity of drugs that actually got released illegally into the U.S.

CARTELS, HOW THEY OPERATE

The Cartels are violent organizations engaged almost continuously in turf battles with rival Cartels.  Additionally, Cartels are known to use a portion of their vast profits to pay off judges, police, military and politicians. Should the individuals reject the bribe their families will likely be at risk of torture, kidnapping or worse.

U.S. gangs have an important role in Cartel operations. In 2024 the FBI reported there are at least 33,000 violent street gangs, motorcycle gangs, and prison gangs criminally active in the U.S. with about 1.4 million members. Many gangs are sophisticated and well organized; all use violence to control neighborhoods and boost their illegal money-making activities, which include robbery, drug and gun trafficking, prostitution and human trafficking.

The relationship between U.S. gangs and the Cartels is that the gangs represent an in-place nation-wide resource of foot soldiers for drug distribution and street sales.

Cartels excel at getting drugs over the border; then, for the most part, they cede operations in the U.S. to local or regional groups. The Drug Enforcement Agency’s 2024 Drug Threat Assessment reports that Mexican Cartels have operations in all 50 states.   

Most of the illicit drugs entering the U.S. that are seized by authorities are discovered at the 300-plus official ports of entry. More than 90% of the Meth, fentanyl and heroin seized is at ports of entry.

THE FENTANYL TRIP

Fentanyl, which often gets mixed with heroin or cocaine is 50 times stronger than heroin and 100 times more powerful than morphine. It’s also cheaper to produce than either of those drugs.

Here’s how fentanyl gets from China to America’s streets; data taken from an article in the NEW YORK POST, February 18, 2023 by Michael Kaplan.

  • STEP 1: China to the west coast of Mexico.

Chinese chemists produce powdered chemicals known as “precursors” that are fentanyl’s building blocks. It is not unusual for the precursors to be packages looking like dog food.

Approximate value of the precursor, $200 per kilogram. One kilogram is 2.2 pounds.  It is interesting to watch the price grow as the journey continues so they will be in bold type.

  • STEP 2: Mexico.

There is so much corruption at the ports that a couple hundred bucks will make authorities look the other way as chemicals are unloaded from China.

Laboratory” is a glorified word for the Mexican fentanyl production facilities. Much of the fentanyl is brewed outdoors in pots over open flames where the “cook” tries to stay up-wind in order to live through the process The drugs get diluted, mixed with other chemicals and the final product is either powder or fentanyl pressed into pills that resemble pharmaceuticals or candy.

Approximate value per kilogram: $3,000 to $5,000 (depending on purity).

  • STEP 3: Crossing the border.

Drug dealers routinely stash the fentanyl in trucks, usually mixed in with other shipping products. With 200,000 vehicles crossing the Mexico/US border each day, it’s not difficult for the deadly cargo to slip through.

Approximate value per kilogram: $20,000

  • STEP 4: Urban hubs.

Once over the border, the idea is to quickly reach a drop-off spot. For example, before drugs enter New York City, there is often a distribution point where the trucker will rendezvous with smaller vehicles.

Approximate value per kilogram: $35,000

  • STEP 5: Drug mills.

Inside apartments, houses, garages, wherever it is convenient, fentanyl is cut with adulterants and sealed in glassine (smooth and glossy paper that is air, water and grease resistant) envelopes that contain single-sized doses.  A crew of 12 can package 100,000 glassines in 24 hours. On the street a glassine packet becomes a $10 sale.

One glassine usually contains less than two milligrams of fentanyl. Keep in mind that there are about 28,000 milligrams in one ounce. Properly divided, one ounce of fentanyl can equate to about 14,000 lethal doses.

Approximate value per kilogram: $300,000

  • STEP 6: From the streets to the user.

This is where U.S. gangs become an important part of the Cartels’ distribution plan. Wholesalers’ pick-up glassine-enveloped goods from the drug mill and then meet up with their street dealers. Street dealers make approximately $2 for each $10 bag of fentanyl that they sell to their customers.

Approximate value per kilogram: $1 million; from $200 per kilogram leaving China to $1 million on U.S. streets killing about 300 Americans per day.

AUTHORITY TO USE THE U.S. MILITARY IN MEXICO

Can the U.S. use military force inside Mexico to defeat the Cartels? Former Attorney General William Barr, I assume after extensive research by his Justice Department staff, believes so.  In 2020 he wrote;

What will it take to defeat the Mexican Cartels?

First, a far more aggressive American effort inside Mexico than ever before, including a significant U.S. law-enforcement and intelligence presence, as well as select military capabilities. Optimally, the Mexican government will support and participate in this effort, and it is likely to do so once they understand that the U.S. is committed to do whatever is necessary to cripple the Cartels, whether or not the Mexican government participates.

Second, the danger Cartels pose to the U.S. requires that we confront them primarily as national-security threats, not a law-enforcement matter. These narco-terrorist groups are more like ISIS than like the American mafia. The only way to defeat them is to use every tool at our disposal inside Mexico.”

Constitutional War Powers (PPG), Article II, Section 2 grants the President the power to direct the military after a declaration of war by Congress.

Presidential Policy Guidance (PPG) on Procedures for Approving Direct Action Against Terrorist Targets Located Outside the United States and Areas of Active Hostilities. Put into place under the Obama administration, the PPG established standard operating procedures for circumstances when the U.S. takes direct action against terrorist targets outside of the US and outside of areas of active hostilities.

Article 51 of the United Nations Charter specifies that, “Nothing in this Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs.”  The U.S. interpretation of the Charter recognizes three circumstances under which the use of force is permitted: 1) the use of force authorized by the UN Security Council under Chapter VII of the Charter; 2) the use of force in self-defense, including against imminent attacks; and 3) the use of force in an otherwise lawful manner with the consent of the territorial state.

SOME EXAMPLES OF THE U.S. ENGAGING TERRORISTS IN FOREIGN NATIONS IN THE PAST

Somalia: Over the past 10 years U. S. military operations against al-Shabaab terrorists with the consent of the government of Somalia in furtherance of U.S. national self-defense.

Libya: Operations against Daesh terrorists were conducted 2015-2019 with the consent of the Government of National Accord in furtherance of U.S. national self-defense.

Yemen: Operations against al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula have been conducted since 2015.

Given the above, one could argue that the Cartels have become a clear and present danger to the United States and that Congress has acknowledged inherent executive power in accordance with the Joint Resolution passed by Congress on September 14, 2001 which states the President may deploy military force preemptively against terrorist organizations in the states that harbor or support them, whether or not they can be linked to the specific terrorist incidents of September 1

January, 2025, President Trump declared the cartels terrorist organizations.

During the campaign Trump said, “When I am president, it will be the policy of the United States to take down the cartels, just as we took down ISIS and the ISIS caliphate

CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS FOR THE USE OF U.S. MILITARY IN MEXICO

During his State of the Union address on 4 March President Trump did not mince words about the threat drug cartels pose, saying “The cartels are waging war on America, and it’s time for America to wage war on the cartels.”

Begin by defining the overarching Rules of Engagement, ROE. 

  • Trust no one.  Too many Mexican politicians, law enforcement and military at all levels are on the Cartels’ payroll, accepting bribes and/or living under threat of violence for themselves and their families. 

Case in point: A former Mexican cabinet member, Garcia Luna, was convicted February 2023 in the U.S. for taking bribes to protect the violent drug Cartels. He has been sentenced to 20 years in prison.  Note he was convicted in the U.S., not in Mexico.

  • The second ROE is to secretly develop detailed strategic and tactical plans before any U.S. forces are introduced into Mexico.
  • Conduct Mexico-wide operations without a visible military foot-print inside Mexico. This may be very difficult. 
  • Do all of this with, at least, tacit approval by Mexico’s new President Sheinbaum. This may be a difficult process.  On 5 February,2025, the U.S. Attorney General published a memo for all Department of Justice employees announcing that President Donald Trump had issued a directive urging the federal government, “To revise existing national security and counter-narcotics strategies.” When apprised of this, Mexico’s President Sheinbaum responded during a news conference stating, “They (the U.S.) should start with their own country; of course, we are going to coordinate and collaborate, never subordination or interference; it is coordination.”
  • All of the planning and on into execution must be Close Hold in order to preserve and protect military operational security; Need-to-Know only. There will be no media briefs.
  • Presidents Trump and Sheinbaum should meet secretly and agree to this concept of operations for the benefit of both countries. The point of the meeting is for President Trump to assert to his Mexican counterpart President Sheinbaum, that her country is in serious trouble, her government has lost control of large sections of territory, it is getting worse, it is negatively impacting the U.S. and we have no intentions of having a narco-terrorists nation, the likes of ISIS, on our southern border. We are not asking for permission but very much want President Sheinbaum’s blessing and cooperation.
  • The internal U.S. Trump team should consist of the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) Commander, CIA Director and the Director of National Intelligence.

Of course, there could be a very long list of senior government officials (Sec Def, Joint Chiefs, Secretary Homeland Security, Secretary of State, etc. etc.) who believe they should be included. But therein lies a big problem. Each would have subordinates working on remarks, power point slides, fact sheets, position papers, etc. Questions would be asked down the chains of command and within a few days thousands would be on the Close Hold, Need-to-Know list followed by headlines in the Washington Post, NY Times, CNN, etc. The Cartels would be ready and negative world opinion (China, Russia, etc.) would flood back to President Trump. . 

  • President Trump then turns the meeting over to the JSOC Commander who will explain that tanks will not be rolling south, the 82nd Airborne Division will not be parachuting into Sinaloa State, and we have no intention to subsume control of any Mexican territory.
  • Commander JSOC will go on to explain that the military footprint inside Mexico will be almost invisible. This will be a war fought at night by special operations forces; namely, Navy Seals, Marine Force Recon, Army Rangers, Army Special Forces and Army Delta Force. Mexicans will not see U.S. military vehicles patrolling their countryside, road blocks, checkpoints, or military formations attacking Cartel militias. 
  • President Trump interjects to explain that what President Sheinbaum will see and hear is that Cartel leaders are missing, their chains of command are being killed and captured, incoming supplies and outgoing products are not on schedule, production facilities are disappearing and Cartels are blaming other Cartels for a takeover of their territory. This will allow Mexican military and law enforcement to go on the offensive and regain control of territory and generally reduce the violence.  
  • The meeting will then be turned over to the Director of National Intelligence who will explain that every operational collection element of the U.S. intelligence inventory will be focused on Mexico. These intel capabilities will be temporarily placed under the operational control of a special intel task force for Operation Cartel. Of particular importance will be Humint, Human intelligence. Because of the decentralized, mom-and-pop production of fentanyl powder and tablets, we need a nation-wide Humint collection effort. Find a production facility today, take it out tonight. Find a collection point today, take it out tonight. Locate cartel leaders, at every level, today take them out tonight. 

The Director of National Intelligence will go on to explain that every intel organization in the U.S. will be tasked to provide all of their individuals of Latin American heritage to be temporarily assigned to a CIA-led Operation Cartel task force for human intel collection. They will be given credentials for in-country personal security, inserted into communities all over Mexico, begin building local cells and reporting findings.

  • Drones of every size and capability will fill the sky; surveillance drones with real-time downlinks to Special Operations forces on the ground; drones armed with Hellfire missiles in the air and on station for immediate use by ground forces against high-value targets and targets of opportunity.
  • Tell President Sheinbaum that nothing that has been discussed during the meeting will be disclosed down her chain of command because of the likelihood that many of them have been compromised by violent threats from the Cartel leaders. The first ROE will be immediately applicable; trust no one.
  • The applicable elements of the U.S. government will begin immediately to transform the concept into a phased plan for execution of actionable intelligence.  Every element will be placed under the operational control of the JSOC Commander for phase 1, planning (about six weeks) and throughout the execution phases. The intent is to begin operations with a Mexico-wide shock-and-awe attack on Cartel headquarters, production facilities, collection/distribution points and supply chains to immediately put the Cartels on their heels and in a defensive posture. Then increase the operational tempo to the maximum extent possible.

CONCLUSIONS

 Mexico is in deep trouble. Cartels are gaining ground every day and there does not appear to be any aggressive counter-Cartel actions by President Sheinbaum.  

Currently the U.S. has no counter-cartel plan.  The U.S. and Mexico must help each other. We must take the initiative away from the Cartels and give Mexico’s law enforcement and military the confidence to wade in and finish the job.

While taking out the Cartels, the U.S. must completely rethink its operations at the 300-plus U.S. ports of entry. Over 90% of all the hard drugs confiscated is accomplished at the ports of entry. While that is good news, it also implies that there is such an enormous volume that gets through and on to the streets.

Going back to a previous note, the FBI reports there are about 33,000 violent street gangs, motorcycle gangs, and prison gangs criminally active in the U.S. today with about 1.4 million members. President Trump, the Justice Department, ICE and nation-wide law enforcement must become fully engaged to convince Mexico that we are fully committed to simultaneously clean up our own house.

We should continue President Trump’s initiatives to physically close our borders.

BOTTOM LINE

“Where there is a will, there is a way.”  If the United States does not take positive overwhelming action to take out the Cartels, they will not only find a way to get their drugs into the U.S. and thereby continue their billion-dollar operations, but they will continue to expand their operational control throughout the United States.

With the post-Biden initiatives for change, for greater national security and for law and order, this concept of operations is now within the art of the possible.

Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of two books, Vision to Execution and Fix the Systems, Transform America as well as the author of a blog, WeThePeopleSpeaking.com.

PRESIDENT TRUMP, MOVE FORWARD WITH A “PHASE TWO” IN THE MIDDLE EAST

WHAT DOES “PHASE TWO” MEAN?

For the sake of simplicity let’s just call the entire Trump initiative to end the war between Israel and Hammas and the release of all prisoners, Phase 1.  What that amazing initiative has also accomplished is to open the door a crack to the possibility of what President Trump has referred to as, “Strong, Durable and Everlasting peace in the Middle East.”

President Trump must lead Campaign Phase Two because the world now recognizes that he is capable and also realize that, as usual, the United Nations is incapable of doing anything.

THE MIDDLE EAST IS STILL A POTENTIAL TINDERBOX. BACKGROUND AND FACTS BEARING ON THE PROBLEM.

  • 1979: Since the Iranian Revolution in 1979, the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran has created a “proxy army” of more than a dozen militias and terror groups across the Middle East with outposts around the world to help foment instability, carry out attacks, and expand the scope of the Islamic Revolution. The most prominent are Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen and other Palestinian groups such as the Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. 

Generally, these terrorists’ organizations answer to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Cor3ps. Its special operations unit, the elite Quads Force, provides arms, training, and financial support to militias and political movements across the Middle East.

  • 1984: Since 1984 Iran has been designated “the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism.” For four decades the Iranian leader has consistently articulated his twofold objectives; “destruction of Israel and “death to America”.
  • 2017: The first Trump administration renewed UN sanctions on Iran and enforced them.  Iran’s foreign currency reserves fell from $128 billion in 2015 to $15 billion in 2019.  Iran’s capabilities and options were reduced and the U.S. was gaining ground in Middle East countries’ acceptance of Israel’s right to exist and prosper as a friendly neighbor. When Trump took office, he put the Houthi organization on the world terrorist list.
  • 2021:  Biden, immediately took the Houthis off the terrorist list for no reason other than to undo a Trump initiative For the Biden administration it was four years of appeasement towards Iran wherein Biden rewarded the Ayatollah to the tune of about $100 billion which presumably enhanced financing and weaponizing their proxy army terrorists.
  • 2023-2025: In the first year of the Hamas invasion, they fired over 26,000 rockets and missiles into Israel, mostly at civilian targets. Additionally, Hezbollah fired over 10,000 rockets into Israel. The Houthi terrorists control Yemen and have conducted hundreds of attacks against regional targets in Saudi Arabia and during the Israel/Hamas war engaged shipping in the Red Sea and nearly shut it down. Iran demonstrated their force-projection capability by launching over 300 drones and missiles in a single failed attack against Israel. The point being, Iran is THE principal destabilizing force throughout the Middle East.

While Hezbollah calls the Middle East home, it has established an extensive Iran-supported terror infrastructure in Europe along with terror networks in Latin America and Africa that enables it to carryout international terrorist attacks.

  • Iran has the 3rd largest world reserves of oil and the 2nd largest reserves of gas. In 2024 their oil exports averaged 1.6 million barrels per day. In 2025 that has increased to 1.7 million per day. About 90% of their oil export is to China.
  • The UN is a toothless burearcracy and in its current configuration worthless with respect to their mission, “to achieve and maintain international security.”
  • January 2025, Iran and Russia signed a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement. The agreement encompasses a broad range of cooperation areas, including political and diplomatic relations, economic and trade partnerships, military and security collaboration, and energy cooperation.
  • Iran and China also have a 25-year strategic agreement addressing economic, military and security cooperation.

A LOOK AT THE PALESTINE SITUATION

As some would have you believe, the Palestinians are not one cohesive group waiting for Israeli genocide so they can move in and take the place of the Jewish state.  “From the river (Jordan Rever) to the sea (Mediterranean Sea)” implies that Israel should cease to exist (Iran’s plan) and Palestine would consist of what is now Israel, the West Bank and Gaza.

About one half of the world’s Palestinian population continues to reside in Israel (250,000) the West Bank (870.000) and Gaza (1.4 million).  Of the Palestinian population who live abroad, known as the Palestinian diaspora, more than half are stateless, lacking legal citizenship in any country. 2.3 million of the diaspora population are registered as refugees in neighboring Jordon, most of whom hold Jordanian citizenship. Over 1 million live between Syria and Lebanon about 750,000 live in Saudi Arabia and about half a million are outside of the Arab world.

CONCLUSIONS FROM THESE FACTS:

Let’s be honest about what Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis are; they are Iran trained, equipped and financed forward-deployed forces. Iran calls all the shots. 

We and the remainder of the world have to take “negotiations” directly to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The U.S. must lead this effort because the United Nations is helpless and cannot lead any initiatives towards a productive end state.

Had the UN been active and successful in their mission to “maintain international peace and security”, we would not have had the Khamenei Regime in power for the last four decades. We would not have had Israel under threat or actually invaded continuously over the past five decades.

Iran has been, is currently and will continue to be THE problem in the Middle East and for the past three years the Biden Administration has supported that destabilization, thereby threatening Israel, threatening world-wide shipping lanes and de facto supported Iran’s nuclear and long-range missile capabilities.  

BOTTOM LINE

Iran is the center of gravity in any effort to create a strong, durable and everlasting peace in the Middle East.

THE MIDDLE EAST CONTINUES TO BE AN UNCERTAIN MESS.  CAN IT BE FIXED? YES.

President Trump has gained stature among world leaders because of his visionary proposal to end the Hamas/Israel War and his expertise in negotiations. Therefore, he must lead this endeavor. 

During the first Trump administration, Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law, achieved visible success with his program called the Abram Accords. It was a successful effort to get a number of Middle East nations to consider closer relations with Israel and an effort towards peaceful coexistence. This is simply an indicator that a different, peaceful Middle East is within the art of the possible.

Most successful complex strategic plans begin at the end. That is, with a clearly defined end state. In this case, President Trump’s words, “A Strong, Durable and Everlasting peace in the Middle East” fits nicely.  

Everlasting peace can become a reality but only if two actions can be accomplished.  One, Iran must abandon the 40-year outspoken pledge to, “destroy Israel and death to America.”

Secondly, the continued existence of active terrorist groups inside the Middle East nations is a non-starter. As we build Campaign Phase Two, let’s see if It may be possible to starve out the terrorists rather than have to kill them.

CAMPAIGN PHASE TWO CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS

President Trump should speak personally with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Gatar to give them a heads-up on the forthcoming campaign and ask for their support to the campaign and to also begin convincing other Middle East nation that they should also get on board.

President Trump should capitalize on his current, well deserved, admiration and contact a large number of world leaders giving them a heads-up that he is seeking to create a strong, durable and everlasting peace in the Middle East. Ask for their uncompromising support as they are kept informed of progress and agree to participate as part of the coalition force against Iran and the terrorist organizations.

President Trump should immediately have a very frank discussion with the United Nations Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres. Begin the conversation with a reminder of his mission to “maintain international peace and security” and the UN’s failure to actively seek to do so for decades.  Tell him, not ask him, that as the campaign to achieve strong, durable and everlasting peace in the Middle East, there will be some specific tasks that the UN must perform quickly and firmly without reservation.

A LETTER TO AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI, LEADER OF IRAN

Ayatollah, the Coalition leaders from across the world who have signed this letter to you have pledged their full support to achieving a strong, durable and everlasting peace in the Middle East.

You have two choices:

One, you can immediately and completely comply with every concession outlined below and eventually become an active member nation in a peaceful Middle East.

Or you can resist, non-comply with the demands and suffer the consequences outlined below. If your position is total noncompliance, the coalition will enter Iran with an overwhelming force, take down your government and destroy every element of your military establishment.

Be advised that you will soon see a massive coalition naval force operating in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.

You have been for the past four decades the world’s leading sponsor of terrorist organizations. That must cease immediately. The demands are as follows:

FINANCIAL SUPPORT. A group of financial experts from the Coalition will arrive in Iran to examine your existing capability to financially support groups outside your borders. After their arrival, if it is determined that your government has provided a single dollar of financial assistance to any organization outside your borders there will be immediate consequences. 

Here is one example. You are currently exporting about 1.7 million barrels of oil per day. We recognize that as a major financial support to your nation. Having determined that you continue to support terrorist organizations financially, the naval force in your area of operations will not allow 25% of the oil export vessels to depart Iran.

ISLAMIC REVOLUTIONARY GUARD CORPS. ITS SPECIAL OPERATIONS UNIT, THE ELITE QUDS FORCE

The Coalition believes the Quds Force supports non-state actors in many countries, including Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Houthi movement, and Shia  militias in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan. The Quds Force is a classic example of state-sponsored terrorism.

Therefore, the entire organization, all of its people, all of its liaison, all of its external activities must be immediately completely dissolved and shut down. Observers from the United Nations will soon be on site to observe and evaluate the depth of the dissolution.

 Ayatollah, we are all aware that, over the past years, you have frequently denied UN observers access to nuclear activities. If that behavior occurs in this case, there will be an immediate additional 25% reduction in exported oil.

WEAPONS PRODUCTION AND DISTRIBUTION.

A joint operation conducted by the Israel Security Agency and the Israel Defense Forces, recently foiled a major weapons smuggling attempt from Iran aimed at supplying terrorist groups in Judea and Samaria in the West Bank.

The Coalition demands that you immediately shut down the manufacture of every weapons system and drone production. The facilities will not only cease operations but they will be rendered incapable of ever being operational again.

It is believed that as of this past summer your oil refinery capability increased to 2.4 million barrels per day. Failure to immediately cease weapons and drone production will cause the Coalition to order the off-shore naval forces to destroy 50% of your refinery capability.

NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND LONG-RANGE MISSILE CAPABILITY

You have no use for nuclear weapons or the capability for long-range delivery. On-going operations for both will cease immediately and equipment and facilities for both will be totally destroyed or permanently moved out of country. 

United Nations inspectors will be given 100% access to all facilities. Failure to provide access and/or to destroy all production capability will result in overwhelming Coalition ground forces entering Iran to verify compliance.

COALITIONS CAN BE EFFECTIVE

Ayatollah, you will of course recall August 1990 when Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi forces attacked, defeated and occupied their neighbor Kuwait with what Saddam Hussein used to brag was the “Mother of all Armies.”

The United States put together a coalition of 39 countries, of which 28 contributed combat forces.

Force size: Approximately 670,000 troops from 28 countries, 425,000 of which were from the United States.

Coalition air component size: 2,500 combat aircraft, 1,800 of which were American.

Coalition airlift: 509,000 passengers and 594,000 tons of cargo carried.

Coalition sorties flown: 100,000 plus.

Aerial refueling: 15,400 sorties dispensed 110 million gallons of fuel.

Number of dumb bombs dropped: 210,000.

Number of smart bombs dropped: 9,300.

30mm depleted uranium rounds fired by A-10 manned aircraft (tank-killers): 782,000.

Duration of air campaign before the ground invasion: 39 days.

Iraqi tanks lost during the war: 3,700 out of 4,300 oh hand.

Number of U.S. Carrier Battle Groups on station: 6.

Coalition POWs taken during the war: 26.

Iraqi POWs taken during the war: 70,000 plus.

U.S. combat related deaths: 147

Iraqi military deaths: 100,000 plus.

Ground war duration: 100 hours

Ayatollah, these numbers should convince you that if you resist this initiative, you, your government, your forward deployed terrorist organizations, and your destabilization of the entire Middle East are going down hard and fast.

The Coalition’s Rules of Engagement will be to always minimize collateral damage and attempt to have zero civilian casualties.

Ayatollah, here is a recent quote from your people, “We, the Iranian people, are exhausted. We don’t want war, we don’t want sanctions, and we don’t even want a ceasefire. We just want to live in peace in the country we love.” Of your 92 million Iranians, it is highly possible that the majority of them have this same simple desire for peace. That is what this Coalition is supporting.

Our advice to you is to stand down right now, take your loyalists with you and turn the government over to the peace-loving Iranians who want to be part of a peace-loving Middle East. 

(Coalition Leaders’ signatures)

Mr. President, you are on a roll.  Make this happen.

And, oh by the way Mr. President, while you are at it:

Should there be a follow-on Phase Three? Yes.

Can there be a follow-on Phase three? Yes, and now is the time.

Is there a detailed concept of operations already prepared for Phase Three? Yes.

it’s called CAMPAIGN WORLD PEACE FOREVER.

 Last published on WeThePeopleSpeaking.com February 2025

PS, without Iran’s total support, terrorist organizations will not be firing tens of thousands of rockets into civilian areas. But if they do survive Phase Two, they absolutely will not survive Phase Three.

Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO EXECUTION, a book for leaders, FIX THE SYSTEMS, TRANSFORM AMERICA as well as the author of a blog WeThePeopleSpeaking.com

HEADLINE: PRESIDENT TRUMP MAY USE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN TO REDUCE GOVERNMENT SIZE AND SPENDING. NO, NO, BIG MISTAKE!

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 YES, THE GOVERNMENT IS TOO BIG AND CONSTANTLY WASTES HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF TAXPAYER MONEY.

A mammoth, sprawling, uncontrollable federal government was never the vision or intent of the founding fathers.  Organizations have a propensity to grow to a point of diminishing returns; it ceases to be efficient, effective and/or no longer performs the functions for which it was created.  At that point a large organization will tend to look inward and become self-perpetuating rather than value added.

Some or all of that applies today to the Departments in the Executive Branch of the federal government; too big, too ineffective.  And more importantly, the annual President’s Budget boils up out of this massive organization. Every government-funded program is maintained and sustained inside these bureaucracies. 

TWO WAYS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM, TOP-DOWN OR BOTTOM-UP

Since the government shutdown, President Trump has said he will work with the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), Russel Vought, to cut the size of government and spending.

OMB’s mission is to, “prepare the President’s federal budget and assist in managing the performance of federal agencies.” If the OMB attempts to take on the President’s government-shut-down downsizing, it will necessarily be a top-down operation; one that has been used for decades, has been and will continue to be a failed concept of operations.

Elon Musk’s DOGE was effective at identifying and tracking huge government/Congressional spending but their general Executive Branch downsizing plan was a complete bust; top-down. Their concept of operations was to have government employees, “explain in writing what you accomplished last week.” From that, somehow draw conclusions leading to decisions as to their viability.  Ill-conceived and completely ineffective.  OMB will not be any more effective than DOGE was.

BOTTOM-UP EXECUTIVE BRANCH CONCEPT IS A PERFECT FIT

President Trump can cause this to be completed in the next 2-3 months.  Put Vice President Vance in charge.

Vance will direct every Department and Agency to have their Deputy Secretary/Director set up an internal small Government Reduction Task Force.

Each task force will draw a detailed organization diagram with “boxes” down to the lowest level.  They will direct the leader of every “box” in the org diagram to immediately submit a ONE-PAGE answer to three questions.

One: What is you mission? When formed 25 years ago it may have been important but absolutely worthless today.

Two:  What is the originating document; a law, a regulation, Executive Order, internal senior leader directive, etc.?  If the mission is no longer essential, the originating document can also be eliminated; deregulation.

Three:  What is your day-to-day value added to the Department/Agency. 

The task force will immediately evaluate every input and come to a conclusion; it needs to be completely eliminated immediately. Or they may see some value in the mission but it can be incorporated into the mission of another “box”, etc.

The Vice President will visit frequently for an in-progress review to insure they are serious about downsizing.

This can all take place in a few weeks and there will be three important accomplishments:

One: Entire subordinate organizations inside the Department/Agency will be deleted. Eliminate dead-wood.

Two: Deleting the element deletes the originating document; deregulating is one of President Trump’s priorities.

Three:  The overall President’s Budget is the sum of the thousands of sub-elements throughout the Executive Branch. The budget for these thousands of deleted sub-elements and the tens of thousands of employees inside them will no longer exist in he budget.

CONCLUSIONS

Bottom-up downsizing makes sense. Accomplishes downsizing in a viable, understandable operation, eliminates the correct employees and automatically reduces the size of the President’s Budget.  OMB cannot do this in a few days while the government is shutdown.  

There is also a states’-rights issues in all of this.  As the federal government grows a natural outcome is that they over-reach into areas that are better and more effectively handled at the local and/or state level.  Federal over-reach tends to result in a one-size-fits-all approach to problem solving and it is usually ineffective and inefficient. 

BOTTOM LINE

Downsizing is very important but adding it in to the government shut-down issue will not get us where we want to be, need to be.

SECRETARY HEGSETH’S 30 SEPTEMBER PRESENTATION……RE DO

Note to subscribers: Sorry, yesterday I published in haste my thoughts on Hegseth’s presentation. He mentioned that the U.S. military’s warfighting abilities should be the goal. He also mentioned the First Gulf War capabilities but did not go into any detail. The details associated with the First Gulf War are mind-blogging. Therefore, I have included them in this addition beginning with the paragraph, HOW GOOD CAN OUR MILITARY BECOME? Also, the final paragraph on what President Trump should do next is new.

This is 30 September and this morning Secretary Hegseth addressed, in person, about 800 assembled senior U.S. military leaders from all over the world. It was certainly one of, if not THE MOST OUTSTANDING, leader presentations ever. Recommendation, don’t read it, watch it on U-Tube to get the full effect.

If asked to summarize the thrust in a couple words, I would say it was about standards for war fighting and the totality of the culture that can make it happen.

ABOUT “STANDARDS” IN GENERAL (what Pete did not tell you)

“An organization without standards is a failed organization.” Unfortunately, the best and most visible example of this is the U.S. Congress. And we the people know this because in every type of poll taken about organizations, our Congress is always dead last.

The U.S. military had lost its way in the 1970’s. In the mid 1980’s a small group of general officers in key positions in the U.S. Army decided it must get fixed. First was a herculean effort to identify the applicable war-fighting TASKS for every MOS, military occupational specialty (infantryman, artilleryman, medic, intelligence, aviation etc. etc. etc.).  And do it for each grade; junior enlisted, a brand-new sergeant, mid-level sergeants, senior sergeants and all officer grades. It was volumes.  Then they had to identify different CONDITIONS if it impacted the task.  The simplest example is a particular task would be significantly impacted in daytime vs night and have a standard for each.

Having all that information on hand, they then set about to establish a STANDARD for each task under an identified condition. We, the U.S. Army, changed everything about how to train and lead by 1990 (the example Pete used) we were without a doubt the most highly trained fighting force in the world.  Pete also mentioned The First Gulf War1992 as a perfect example of what a force that highly trained can accomplish in a very short time.

‘TASKS, CONDITIONS, STANDARDS’ became the Holy Grail for building an unmatched war-fighting machine.

MORE ON STANDARDS

“An organization without standards is a failed organization”; we got that. But take that a step further, “an organization that has compromised its standards is also a failed organization.” That is where we are today and Pete did a perfect job of laying all that out and how to fix it.

HOW GOOD CAN OUR MILITARY BECOME?

Pete mentioned 1990 warfighting capabilities as an end-state. Why?

THE FIRST GULF WAR

On August 2nd 1990 Saddam Hussein sent more than half million troops and thousands of tanks into neighboring Kuwait and took complete control of the country. Kuwait is located at the southeast corner of Iraq and borders on the northeast corner of Saudi Arabia.  Hussein’s army was a force which he often and proudly referred to as, “the mother of all armies.”

The next day on the 3rd of August President Bush deployed U.S. naval forces to the Persian Gulf. Which bordered on both Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. 

On the 7th of August 15,000 U.S. troops, 32 destroyers and 100 aircraft arrived in Saudi Arabia.

8 August, the U.S. Operation Desert Shield launched.

9 August, the UN condemns the Iraqi invasion.

Sixteen days later on 18 August the United Nations finally demanded Iraq depart Kuwait. The UN had 45 years of practice reacting to world crises with these type of worthless demands. 

The United States transitioned from operation Desert Shield, the build-up period, to Operation Desert Storm, the counter attack against Iraq’s mother of all armies.

Here are some statistics defining Desert Storm that will blow your mind. I’ve rounded off the numbers to make them more understandable.                                                                       

  • Coalition member nations: 39 countries, of which 28 contributed combat forces.
  • Force size: Approximately 670,000 troops from 28 countries.
  • Coalition air component size: 2,250 combat aircraft.
  • Coalition airlift: 509,000 passengers and 595,000 tons of cargo carried.
  • Coalition sorties flown: 100,000-plus.
  • Aerial refueling: 15,000 sorties that dispensed 110 million gallons of fuel.
  • Number of dumb bombs dropped: 210,000.
  • Number of smart bombs dropped: 9,300.
  • Duration of the air campaign before ground invasion: 39 days.
  • Iraqi tanks lost during the war: 3,700 out of 4,300 in inventory.
  • Number of U.S. Carrier Battle Groups on station, 6.
  • Coalition POWs taken during the war: 26.
  • Iraqi POWs taken during the war: 70,000-plus.
  • U.S. combat-related deaths: 147
  •  Iraqi military deaths: 100,000-plus.
  • Ground war duration and this final statistic is overwhelming; duration of the ground war, 100 hours against Saddam Hussein’s more than half a million soldiers in defensive positions.

This all happened between August and the following February. Beyond the magnitude of the war-fighting personnel and equipment, think about the daily logistics of delivering food, water, thousands of tons of ammunition to be moved, and handling 70,000 POWs, all of it happening in the Saudi Arabian desert which is over 7,000 miles from middle America.  Simply amazing.

This all happened after a generation of work to focus the U.S. military on one thing; warfighting.

CONCLUSIONS:

Every American should watch Secretary Hegseth’s presentation; breath-taking.

We can, we must return our military to the 1990 end state.

PRESIDENT TRUMP ATTENDED AND MADE TWO MISTAKES

The first mistake was the president arrived by helicopter about the time Pete finished his presentation. President Trump should have been watching from stage-left the entire time.

Second mistake, no one, including the president, could successfully follow a presentation like that one. The best follow-on would have been for the president to walk on stage just as Pete finished.  Everyone would have stood at attention. The president would say, “take your seats, I have three questions for each of you.

One, did you, not collectively, but did you personally understand everything your leader just told you? 

“Two, are you capable of accomplishing everything he wants you to do?’

“And three, are you personally committed to doing it?”

“If the answer to any of these three questions is NO, I want you to retire immediately.”

There is nothing I have to add to Pete’s fabulous presentation, just know that I have faith in all of you and I have your back. Get out there and make it happen; be all you can be.”

BOTTOM LINE

It’s worth your time to watch it!

President Trump should immediately hold an emergency cabinet meeting and say the following:

I hope you all watched Pete’s presentation to his senior leaders. If you didn’t, watch it today.

You all are on the same leadership level as Pete. Before the end of October, I want each of you to put together your own presentation for your department. As a minimum, it should, in its totality, define the culture of your organization going forward and specifically define your daily operational standards.

Then, before the end of November, present it to your assembled senior leaders.  I will attend.

Got it?