ASSERTION, China wants to control the world, as in, “To exercise authoritative or dominative influence over.” One might even alter this official definition by substituting “and” for “or”.
PART ONE OF TWO
FACTS BEARING ON THE PROBLEM:
What follows is a potpourri of what I believe to be critical issues associated with China’s long-range strategic plan to control the world. I further believe they are well past the planning stage and at least into phase 3 of execution. This conclusion becomes more obvious when we take a look at what our four existing enemies, China, Russia, Iran and North Korea are doing.
CHANGE: Changes in foreign affairs and foreign relations can be good, advantageous, bad, fast, slow, uplifting, dangerous, etc. If it is a combination of fast and bad, we need to recognize it, admit to it and then do something about it. The U.S. may already be so far behind the power-curve that we cannot save ourselves.
WHAT ARE OUR ENEMIES UP TO?
China’s Achilles heel has been the availability of natural gas and oil. They currently import 10-12 million barrels of crude oil per day from two major oil sources, Russia and the Middle East. Included in all of their recent foreign relations are actions that will insure a sustained future supply of oil and gas
2001: For decades during the post-WW II Cold War period, China and Russia were at odds with each other over which one was to be the dominate figure in transitioning the world to communism/socialism. Those days concluded in 2001 when China and Russia signed a long-range friendship and cooperation treaty.
2013: China’s Belt and Road Initiative, launched by Xi Jinping, is a multi-trillion-dollar infrastructure program that is intended to link China with more than 100 of the 195 world’s countries. China has provided funding for roads, railroads, power plants, ports, mining and energy projects. Some of the projects consist of huge loans to poorer countries that ultimately cannot be paid back to China. China then uses leverage and bartering to gain control over critical natural resources.
CHINA AND RARE EARTH ELEMENTS such as cobalt, nickel, copper and lithium are essential components in producing renewable energy technology, semiconductors and other electronics. Access to these resources has never been more important; they will define future economic growth. China has taken the lead in this global “gold rush.” China’s mining companies are merging with other firms, creating a global force in the extraction of rare elements. Additionally, China holds a monopoly in processing of the elements with 80% of U.S. refined rare earth elements imports coming from China. For example, it is reported that China controls about 80% of the mineable lithium deposits in the world. So, what happens when the U.S. has 50 million electric vehicles on the road and we are out of lithium for new batteries?
November, 2020: There was a signing ceremony in which 15 Asian nations, led by China, agreed to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership which casts China as a champion of globalization and multilateral cooperation in a multi-nation effort towards freer trade and future prosperity. It is the world’s largest free trade bloc. The U.S. is not included.
March 2021: China and Iran signed a strategic cooperation agreement which includes oil and mining rights for China, military cooperation and China’s $400 billion economic investment. China is Iran’s leading trade partner. This is a significant step in reducing U.S. influence in the Middle East, crippling the U.S. sanctions on Iran and firming up China’s future supply of imported oil.
June, 2021: Putin and Xi Jinping announced the extension of the 20-year-old friendship and cooperation treaty.
February, 2022: Putin and Xi Jinping sign a new statement that outlines a bold New World Order and a partnership between the two states without any limitations. It openly declares against NATO and their concern over AUKUS, a security partnership between the U.S., Australia and the United Kingdom. The most crucial element of the joint declaration was their alliance against the U.S. Additionally, they signed a new deal under which Russia will deliver gas to China via the Far Eastern route strengthening their energy cooperation.
June, 2022: China’s crude oil imports from Russia soared 55% from a year earlier, surpassing Saudi Arabia as China’s top supplier. This happened in spite of sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
September, 2022: Putin, Xi and the president of Mongolia agreed to a plan for a new pipeline capable of delivering 50 billion cubic meters of gas from Russia to China via Mongolia.
December, 2022: China and Saudi Arabia released a statement agreeing to a range of issues including energy, security, Iran’s nuclear program, the crisis in Yemen and Russia’s war in Ukraine.
January 2023: Notwithstanding the three-year Covid bump in the road, China’s economy is on track for resurgence. China’s Gross Domestic Product growth over the last 10 years was 6% or better annually until Covid hit in 2020. Their target GDP growth for 2023 is 5% while defense spending is 7.2%. By the way, the U.S. GDP growth in 2023 is projected to be south of 2%.
March, 2023: China and Brazil, the largest economy in Latin America, have agreed to stop trading with the U.S. dollar and use their own currencies instead. They will carry out their immense economic dealings without use of the dollar as a medium of exchange. Twenty-three countries representing about 60% of the world’s GDP are setting up swap lines which bypass the U.S. dollar and the medium of exchange. Included in the 23 are Russia, China, India, Germany, France and the UK.
23 March 2023: China and Saudi Arabia signed an agreement granting Saudi Arabia the status of a “dialogue partner” in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a club of mostly ex-Soviet states as well as other major economic players such as India and Pakistan. This agreement is a step towards full membership for Saudi Arabia. As Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst put it, “The traditional monogamous relationship with the U.S. is now over.”
1984: Iran was designated a State Sponsor of Terrorism. Since 2005 EU, UN and U.S. sanctions have targeted Iran for violating treaties under which it promised not to pursue nuclear weapons. By 2015 the sanctions resulted in unemployment and high inflation rates thereby devastating Iran’s economy.
When was the last time you saw a product that was “made in Iran?” The point is, Iran’s economic highs and lows are directly tied to the export of oil. It follows that Iran’s support to terrorism and its nuclear program are therefore also tied to oil export income. President Trump tightened down the sanctions on Iran and crushed their economy. Oil exports plummeted from 2.1 million barrels a day in 2017 to 404,000 in 2020. President Biden relaxed the sanctions in order to get back the failed nuclear agreement with Iran and their oil exports nearly doubled in 2021 and continues to rise every day since.
2016: Russia entered into an agreement with Iran to build nuclear power capabilities inside Iran which has obviously been advantageous as their nuclear production capability is now eminent.
March, 2021: Iran and China signed a 25-year cooperation agreement that will strengthen their relationship with respect to political, strategic, military and economic components. China has contracts totaling hundreds of billions of dollars in Iran’s gas and oil industry to include exclusive rights to several Iranian oil and natural gas fields. It is not lost on China planners that Iran ranks as the fourth-largest reserve of oil and the second-largest reserve of natural gas in the world. Iran has signed on to China’s One Belt and Road program as a key part of China’s geopolitical ambitions in central Asia and the Middle East. They are also linked militarily with China providing advanced systems to include control technology for long-range missile development.
January, 2022: Iran, China and Russia held their third joint naval drills in the northern Indian Ocean. There also continues to be Chinese nuclear experts, scientists and technicians present in Iran.
20 July, 2022: In his first trip abroad since the invasion of Ukraine, Putin visited Iran to, “Strengthen our cooperation on international security issues, making a significant contribution to the settlement of the Syrian conflict.” The same day Iran’s oil ministry signed a $40 billion deal with Russia which includes development of Iranian gas fields and building new gas export pipelines.
1 March, 2023: Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, Colin Kahl reported to Congress that, “Iran can produce enough fissile material for one nuclear bomb in about 12 days.”
11 March, 2023: After years of hostility, China brokered a deal whereby Saudi Arabia and Iran will reestablish relations; reopening of embassies in Tehran and Riyadh within the next two months.
February, 2023: CIA Director says Russia is offering Iran help with its missile program in exchange for military aid; and says the partnership is, “growing in a very dangerous direction.” Now that Russia is struggling through a war in Ukraine, Iran can reciprocate in their relationship by providing hundreds of attack drones to Russia thereby further strengthening their cooperation.
NORTH KOREA, RECENT HEADLINES:
North Korea has conducted 270 missile launches and nuclear tests since 1984; well over 100 of those since Biden took office.
2018, 2019: President Trump made three trips to Asia to meet with North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un. We do not know what Trump said, but nuclear and missile testing stopped. They resumed a month after Biden took office and have continued at a torrid pace since.
February, 2023; North Korea fired four strategic cruise missiles demonstrating its ability to conduct a nuclear counter attack.
9 March, 2023: North Korea launched six short-range ballistic missiles; describing their ability to attack military airfields in South Korea.
12 March, 2023: While North Korea has been launching ballistic missiles from a submarine since 2016, the latest launch, 12 March 2023, is proof-of-concept of a more capable missile.
2023: North Korea launches test missile with range to hit the U.S. The White House says President Biden was briefed on the situation and will continue to consult with allies. OK, and………?
North Korea’s growing nuclear arsenal and provocations have raised the urgency for South Korea and Japan to strengthen their defense postures.
China is considered North Korea’s closest ally; they have had a mutual aid and cooperation treaty since 1961. Their relationship declined earlier this century over North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. However, relations have been increasingly close since 2018.
U.S./SAUDI ARABIA RELATIONSHIPS THEN AND NOW:
Bilateral agreements, particularly in the energy and security sectors have endured between the U.S. and Saudi for decades. Saudi Arabia is one of the U.S.’ largest trading partners in the Middle East. The U.S. has been instrumental over the decades in organizing, training and equipping the Saudi military.
The Obama/Biden and now the Biden administration’s bungling of the nuclear issues as they apply to Iran have created a deep mistrust between Saudi Arabia in particular and other Middle East nations in general towards the U.S. They do not want a nuclear Iran and believe Biden has facilitated it.
In 2017, President Trump’s first overseas trip was to Saudi Arabia and was described as, “A pro-American extravaganza” where Trump and the King signed a $110 billion arms deal.
Saudi Arabia is engaged in a war with their southern neighbor, Yemen. The terrorist group, Houthi, engaged the Yemen government forces in 2014 and succeeded in capturing most of the country. The ousted Yemen president asked Saudi Arabia for assistance. The Saudis put together a coalition of nine Middle East nations to assist. During the conflict, the U.S. has provided intelligence and logistical support as well as the sale of arms to coalition states. The Houthi terrorist group is totally sponsored by and equipped by Iran. They routinely attack Saudi oil producing areas and oil refineries. Because of all that, President Trump put the Houthis on the international terrorist list.
China’s extensive move into the affairs of Middle East countries has been alarmingly rapid and extensive. Why? Because Biden facilitated it. During his 2020 campaign Biden frequently referred to Saudi Arabia as a, “pariah” nation.
January, 2021: Enter the Biden Administration. They immediately removed the Houthis from the terrorist list and cancelled a Saudi order for military equipment needed to fight the Houthis. Biden went on to announce an end to American support for Saudi-led offensive operations against the Houthis. A perfect lesson on how not to treat friends and valued allies.
Additionally, during his 2020 campaign Biden labeled Saudi Arabia a “pariah state” over the murder of U.S.-based journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Given those underpinnings, Biden’s trip July 2022 to Saudi Arabia to beg for oil ended up being all about a fist-bump and was a national disgrace.
BIDEN AND ISRAEL:
It began with the Obama/Biden administration and has been exacerbated in the Biden administration; that is, they simply abandoned the U.S. decades-old policy of uncompromising support to Israel, our most valued friend and ally in the Middle East.
March, 2023: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was engaged in Israel’s proposed judicial reform. On 23 March, Biden spoke publicly to the issue making it clear that Netanyahu is still not on his schedule for a White House visit, “Not in the near term”, he said. This breaks precedent with every U.S. president for decades.
6 April, 2023: Dozens of rockets were fired into Israel from Lebanon and Gaza by Hamas and Hezbollah terrorists. The response from President Biden, as he departed for a long Easter weekend, “My expectation and hope is that this will be closing down sooner than later.” Wow, tough talk from the supposed-to-be leader of the free world and decades-old close and valued ally, Israel. Mr. President, “hope” is not a process.
U.S. LEADERSHIP IN LATIN AMERICA:
March, 2023: Honduras recently cut ties with Taiwan and established diplomatic ties with China.
The opposition in Paraguay recently announced that if it wins the elections in April, it will do the same. In the past four years, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, and Panama have each switched their recognition from Taiwan to China.
March, 2022: China has extended its Belt and Road infrastructure investment program into Latin America; there are 26 projects in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela. Additionally, China has strengthened its military ties, especially with Venezuela. China has replaced the U.S. as Latin America’s leading trade partner.
This is all happening despite President Biden’s 2020 campaign pledge that he would restore American leadership to Latin America and counter China’s growing influence there.
8 March, 2023: “What concerns me as a Combatant Commander is the myriad of ways in which the PRC is spreading its malign influence, wielding its economic might, and conducting gray zone activities to expand its military and political access and influence.”; testimony byGeneral Laura Jane Richardson, Commander, US Southern Command, to the House Armed Services Committee.
The dominoes in Latin America are falling at an ever-increasing pace while the U.S. remains passively standing on the sidelines, politically and economically, watching as China turns the continent into its subject.
LEADER OF THE FREE WORLD: The U.S. emerged on the world stage during World War I, that accelerated during WW II and through the Cold War. As a result, for decades the U.S. president has been referred to as, “The leader of the free world.” That title was not ceremonial, it existed because the free world believed it. But President Biden’s actions over the past two years have disappointed and disillusioned world leaders. For example:
The embarrassing and unnecessary military/political collapse in Afghanistan.
Disrespect for a leader who would instantly squander his nation’s energy-independence to make a trite political point.
Astonishment that President Biden would willingly and deliberately threaten our national security by opening our borders to millions of unvetted, untested criminals, gang members, terrorists, drug dealers, human traffickers, hundreds of thousands of unaccompanied minors and millions of common folks with no known skillsets from over 170 countries.
Inability to admit to or deal with growing lawlessness across the U.S.
Obvious disinterest and/or inability to deal with North Korea’s ramped-up nuclear and long-range missile testing.
His inability to speak to difficult and demanding world issues without a prepared script and/or staged Q and A.
His propensity to blame every, I mean EVERY, issue that is not going well for the American people on President Trump. No, zero, accountability.
And finally, the icing on the cake. The world watched the Russian buildup of an invasion force on the border with Ukraine from October, 2021 through 24 February, 2022. While China and North Korea refused to condemn the invasion, the remainder of the world thought otherwise. But the shockwave instantaneously hit the world when President Biden, in a rare extemporaneous moment, said, “Russia will be held accountable if it invades. It depends on what it does. It’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion and then we end up having a fight about what to do and not do, et cetera.” The world’s interpretation of that statement is, a little invasion will be OK. Biden’s minions moved quickly to issue a what-the-president-meant-to-say statement but the irrevocable damage had been done. Suspicions confirmed, the president of the United States can no longer be trusted or respected as the leader of the free world.
Our allies and enemys alike are wondering who is in charge. There are obvious global doubts about President Biden’s physical and cognitive capacity to deal with the rigorous demands of a “leader of the free world.”
Author’s note: Please stay tuned for Part 2, dealing with U.S. deterrence, our vulnerability and conclusions about the way ahead in China’s New World Order.
Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO EXECUTION, a book for leaders, and a new book May 2022, FIX THE SYSTEMS, TRANSFORM AMERICA as well as the author of a blog WeThePeopleSpeaking.com.