Author: admin

Today, 28 September Sec Def Austin and JCS Chairman Gen Milley appeared before the Senate Armed Services Committee.  The subject was the retrograde from Afghanistan. 

To be clear, I did not watch the entire proceeding; but I did hear them explain “The Plan.”  I paraphrase, The Plan, locked in last spring, was to 1) scale down combat operations, 2) recover excess military equipment and 3) withdraw U.S. military forces, in that order.

When asked about the part of The Plan that covered evacuation of U.S. noncombatants, they admitted it was not part of their plan.  The Plan, they said, was properly executed as written. 

Here is where I begin to criticize The Plan:

When putting together a plan of this complexity planners never have a completely factual base of information with which to work. In the absence of facts, they are compelled to make some assumptions in order to have a complete picture of the proposed operation.  Assumptions are dangerous critters and every military planner above the grade of 2^nd Lieutenant knows that. 

Time sequencing the planning process conducted by the Central Command (the Combatant Command encompassing the Middle East area of operations) should have looked about like this:

First is the list of facts (e.g., how much stuff to haul out of country, how many military personnel are there, what is the time-line, how many cargo aircraft required, how many air tankers will it take, where will everything and everyone go, you get the picture).  Easy stuff. 

While the first step is underway, in the back of ever planners mind are the assumptions.  At this point they may not necessarily even be written down. But when the first draft of The Plan gets briefed up the chain of command, the assumptions will begin to get aired.  It goes like this:  The Colonel taking the briefing says to the briefer, “As we begin to withdraw U.S. forces the Taliban will undoubtedly want to fill that void.  Will the ANA (Afghan National Army) be able to hold their ground?”  That is an example of a series of question that would be raised and have to get answered before the briefing can go any further up the chain of command. 

The planning staff goes back to the drawing board and now begins to put together, in writing, a set of assumptions that fill in the big picture in the absence of facts. 

During that process, these three huge assumptions would undoubtedly have surfaced:  1) It is assumed that the ANA will, generally speaking, be capable of holding the ground currently in their possession. 2) It is assumed that the current fully-functioning Afghan Government will continue to exist following the withdrawal. And 3) the U.S. Embassy will remain in place for the foreseeable future and, by extension, U.S. citizens spread about the country will continue with their work. 

Continuing with the briefing process: The briefer, now addressing a more senior officer, will begin by saying, “In the absence of facts to the contrary, this plan is based on the following assumptions…..”  There will be a lot of them, but let’s just focus on the big three: the ANA, Afghan Government and the U.S. Embassy. 

From the testimony today by Austin and Milley, it is now obvious that they believed the answer to the big-three assumptions was yes, the ANA will fight, yes, the Afghan government will continue to function and yes, the U.S. Embassy is there for the long-haul.  In retrospect that was an enormous mistake and failure of current intelligence, or misread of current intelligence or simply not listening to experts on the ground. For example, in July 23 U.S. Embassy officials sent cables to Washington telling the Biden administration that the Taliban would likely re-take control if the U.S. military departed.  It now appears that the powers-that-be just rolled ahead with The Plan hoping it would all be OK.  But, as the saying goes, hope is not a process.

At this point in the months-long planning process, those three critical assumptions should have been discussed, investigated and would have fallen into the category of Center-of-Gravity issues.  Definition:  A Center-of-Gravity can be a person, place, thing or circumstance that, in and of itself, is central to success of the plan.  Or, stated another way can cause partial or complete failure of a plan. 

Once planners understand the critical nature of an assumption, they should then move on to the next step in the planning process; development of contingency plans.  A contingency is simply the answer to the question, what if. What if the ANA folds under fire?  What if the Afghan President exits stage-left in the middle of the night and the government ceases to function? What if the total U.S. Embassy has to be evacuated under duress?

At that point, the briefing is a complete product.  The key to success is that the contingency planning becomes an integral part of The Plan. When that happens the contingency plans get resourced before the fact so that The Plan is prepared to deal with all known and imagined issues that unfold during the heat of battle.  For example, the contingency plan for evacuation of all U.S noncombatants would have included a tasker to the State Dept to determine and report, before the fact, the exact number to be evacuated, their exact locations and their ability or inability to get to Bagram Air Base in an emergency.

If these contingency plans had been in place during the withdrawal fiasco last month, the Center of Gravity for each contingency would have been for the U.S. to retain complete control of Bagram Air Base right up to the last flight out of country.    

At this point, many of you may be thinking, OK Covault, this is all Monday-morning-quarterbacking, anyone could have come up with this critique a month after the withdrawal.   I disagree because what I have described above is what U.S. Army (I will speak only for my Service) officers are taught to do.  They spend an entire year at the Command and General Staff College as majors studying, learning and doing this type of planning with every factor I have laid out above.   More senior officers spend another year at the Army War College thinking through this exact type of planning problem involving Joint U.S. forces, other government agencies (CIA, State Dept, etc.), the United Nations and combined operations with other nations’ armed forces.  I didn’t just dream this up the above planning scenario, this is what we do and how we are taught to think. 

A word about the National Security Council.  Deputies and staff work full time in the NSC, but during critical issues the NSC “principals” meet; i.e., the President, VP, Department heads, CIA, Chairman JCS, etc.  If The Plan as I have outlined it above was presented to the NSC Principals by Sec Def Austin and Chairman JCS Milley and then disregarded by President Biden, my conclusion is that they did about all they could do. 

But, if The Plan they briefed did not lay out the assumptions and contingencies, in my opinion they failed the President and the country.  And when military leaders as that level fail, people needlessly die. And they did die.

The future ramifications of the Afghan withdrawal fiasco are yet to come to fruition, but It appears certain that Afghanistan could again become a focal point for intensified global terrorism with the United States as a specific target.  Additionally, it is becoming clearer every day that our allies have lost confidence in the U.S. and our enemies have lost respect for our capabilities. Summed up, that equals increased vulnerability and that means a less secure America.

Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO EXECUTION, a book for leaders, a columnist for THE PILOT, a national award-winning local newspaper in Southern Pines, NC and the author of a blog, WeThePeopleSpeaking.com.

In 2010, during a news conference concerning the Affordable Care Act, Speaker Pelosi made perhaps the dumbest statement ever about a piece of pending legislation: “We have to pass the bill so that you can find out what is in it.” And it was only 2700 pages long.  Well, she is at it again but this time the issue is exponentially more complicated and dangerous. At issue is the $3.5 trillion reconciliation, democrat-led wish list that is being processed in Congress at warp speed.  Congressional committees are rushing through a mark-up in order to meet Pelosi’s scheduled House vote on 27 September. 

There are five enormously important individual issues at play right now with the Biden administration and the Congress; 1) how Congress uses and/or abuses its legislative process, 2) entitlements, 3) taxes, 4) debt and 5) the impact on the overall economy.  These issues, rolled together, may perhaps in days, not months or years, dictate the future of our country and it’s not a pretty picture.

CONGRESS’ LIES AND DECEPTION:  First of all, it is a stretch to believe that this reconciliation method should even be in play.  To qualify for passage under reconciliation any provision in the bill is supposed, “to affect the budget in a way that is more than incidental.”  There are more and more indications that many of the proposals are not even budget related.

The processing of this bill disregards a couple hundred years of rules, protocols and tradition.  Discussions of the specifics of a bill are to begin in the various committees with testimony from expert witnesses in open session laying out the pros and cons of moving forward.  Committee members will discuss the issues, offer and debate amendments and finally vote as to whether or not the bill should be brought to the House or Senate floor for further consideration and a vote.

This bill is reportedly about 10,000 pages long.  No one will read it.  No one will know what all is buried inside the bill. The majority of the issues will not even be exposed before Pelosi’s 27 September vote.  The American public will even be more clueless than our elected officials (if that is even possible).  Issues costing hundreds of billions of dollars will not see the light of day, perhaps for months after the bill is passed.

Before diving in we should at least ask the question; is it really $3.5 trillion?  For sure no one knows the answer because the hundreds of proposals included in the 10,000 pages have not been vetted.  There are experts who are now suggesting is could be as much as $5.5 trillion. Let me give you a little perspective on $3.5 and $5.5 trillion.  The whole federal budget 2021 was $4.8 trillion and the federal revenue was $3.8 trillion.  About $3 trillion of the spending was mandatory entitlement.  And now we are talking about a single bill that is potentially larger than an annual budget?

ENTITLEMENTS: The headline issues in the bill that have been reported are expanding Medicare and Medicaid, child care, preschool, more food stamps, 12-week family and medical for all workers and free community college.  What do they all have in common?  They will become entitlements. Entitlements are dangerous because they have two things in common; the never go away and they grow.

Fifty years ago (when Medicare and Medicaid were new programs) about 36% of federal spending was some form of welfare for individuals as compared with today at about 80%.  Now consider the headliners in this bill (more Medicare, more Medicaid, child care, preschool, more food stamps, 12-week family and medical for all workers, and free community college.)  These are new entitlements that will grow and not go away.  The Congressional Budget Office has previously declared that additional entitlements are “not sustainable.”  Where is the Congressional debate, where are the expert witnesses, are these necessary for our country to succeed?  At what entitlement percentage point, 85%, 90%, 95%, are we obliged to admit that we live in a welfare state?

One way to describe some of what is supposedly in this bill is to say it is the culmination of Obama’s life-long plan for America.  Recall the hot-mike while campaigning for president in 2008; Obama was asked by Joe-the-plumber about his goal for America.  Obama summed it up by saying he, “wanted to spread the wealth around.”  Well, that is certainly where we are headed .

HOW DO WE PAY FOR A $3.5- $5.5 TRILLION BILL?  Taxes, taxes and more taxes. The House Ways and Means and the Senate Finance committees are hard at work putting together the largest tax increase since 1968.

At the top of the list is corporate tax. Before the Trump presidency, U.S. corporate tax was the highest in the developed world and it must be looked at for what it is exactly; it is a cost of producing a product, just like wages and raw materials.  And just like every other cost it gets passed on to we-the-people, rich and poor.  By extension, a high corporate tax makes us less competitive in the global market place.  Trump reduced the tax from 35% to 21% resulting in higher wages, GDP growth and renewed global competitiveness. Biden will increase corporate tax to 31%; congratulation U. S.  We will be back to the highest rate among developed nations.

The top income tax rate will go up from 37% to 39.6% and kick in at $400,000 for individuals and $450,000 for married couples.  For those making over $5 million, there will be a 3% surcharge. For the high-bracket folks living in California and New York, the governments will be taking about 60% of your income.  The fuel for capitalism is investment capital.  Where does it come from?  From folks who have a lot of money and don’t have a large enough mattress to hide it under.  They are the source for investment and what happens when the federal government, through taxes and disincentivization, takes it away? GDP growth is negatively impacted.

Small businesses that pay through the individual tax code will pay the highest rate plus a new 3.8% surtax. The death tax exemption level will be cut in half. Higher tobacco taxes for everyone.  And don’ forget about the inflation “tax”; July 2021 prices are 5.4% higher than July 2020.  Gas prices are up 40% since Biden took office, which kick-started an inflationary hit on every American because every single thing we buy, at some point, comes out the back of a gas-guzzling truck.   

 In addition to the tax increases mentioned above that we have been hearing about, Larry Kudlow, in a recent article, succinctly articulated the pending tax assault; “stock buyback tax, a corporate alternative minimum tax, tax on so-called high salaries, tax on CEO pay disparity, a tax on unrealized capital gains, a tax on carried interest, an end to the 20% small business deduction, a tax on estate planning, limits to active business loses, a tax on so called mega retirement accounts, new bank reporting requirements for all depositary inflows and outflows, a plastics excise tax, a carbon tax and a fossil fuel tax,

And with these taxes comes thousands of pages of new regulations and big-government control that will strangle businesses, small and large, taking the economy rapidly into a Carter/Obama/Biden-like stagflation.

Over and over and over we have heard our president emphatically point his finger at us and say, “Anyone…. making…. less….. than….. $400,000 …. will …NOT …… pay …..any …. more…. income…. tax.  If he knows that it is a lie but keeps saying it, we are in trouble.  Conversely, if he believes it is the truth and keeps saying it, we are in even deeper trouble.  As the overall economy slows and inflation spreads across all goods and services, businesses will not support increased wages and the middle class is going to get hammered.

An added note about, “billionaires paying their fair share,” a familiar Biden/Bernie Sanders refrain.  According to Forbes there are 724 U.S. billionaires with a collective net worth of about $4.4 trillion.  The democrats have lined up $3–$6 trillion in new spending beyond the baseline budget of about $4 trillion. It is impossible to make the numbers work. Assume we just take everything the billionaires have, cash it in and send the check to the feds. It wouldn’t cover the current Biden spending binge and then how do we get the billionaires’ taxes next year?  And don’t forget about Bernie Sander’s Medicare for all which is not yet on the Biden/Pelosi/Schumer to-do list.

THE DEBT BOMB:  Even before this year’s Biden multi-trillion-dollar spending spree, the federal debt was forecast to reach at least $33 trillion by 2024 and $45 trillion by 2031.  We have to service that debt which is currently about $400 billion annually with historically low interest rates.  Should the 10-year Treasury rate move to a reasonable 5%, as it was in 2007, the annual interest payment would be about $1.4 trillion. That plus entitlements suck up all the projected revenue.  What then do we do about discretionary spending to run the government? That is one reason why the Congressional Budget Office continues to call our national debt “unstainable.”

BIDEN’S “BUILD BACK BETTER”: A White House economic analysis last spring asserted that the U.S. economy can’t grow faster than 1.9% over the long term.  The Wall Street Journal concluded that 1.9% growth will, without a doubt, create a disconnect between the rising cost of the Biden entitlement state and a reduced ability to finance it. Where is the “build” and where is the “better” in Biden’s sound-bite economic policy?

The eight-year anemic Obama/Biden economy was lit up by President Trump in 2017.  What happened is not rocket science.  When taxes were cut, we-the-people had more disposable income and we bought more goods and services which caused increased production. Increased production caused an increase in wages and less unemployment.  Unemployment for women and minorities became the lowest in history. Numbers of families collecting some form of government welfare plummeted. Gross domestic product went steadily up.  And, pay attention democrats, even with lower tax rates the federal revenue in 2019 was the highest in history.  What is it about this formula that is so difficult to understand?  Oh, I almost forgot about the Biden number one governing maxim, if it was a Trump success it must be bad and therefore must be reversed.  

TRANSFORMING AMERICA:  Today, not tomorrow, today Americans should be worried about stopping this Biden/Pelosi/Schumer steamroller before (as someone recently wrote), “we wake up to a government that dominates and controls our lives in a country we don’t recognize.”

WHAT ELSE?  1) I will not be surprised to see somewhere in the 10,000 pages of the reconciliation bill a statement that grants amnesty to 20-some million illegal migrants.  Why not, the issue will not get debated or exposed to we-the-people before it, all of a sudden, is the law of the land and thereby solidifies the Latino democratic voting block for years to come.  Amnesty has the potential to severely damage this nation.  Precedent is a powerful force, especially in government.  Once amnesty is declared and the precedent set, every border will, in short order, be overcome with masses of illegals from all around the world, hoping to get in line for Amnesty #2.  Our schools, medical and welfare systems will be rapidly overwhelmed.  

2) There may well be tens or hundreds of billions of dollars allocated to education.  Why?  Because our education system is pathetic and the only solution politicians can see is to throw top-down money at the problem with little to show for it.

3) Student debt forgiveness is another democrat pet give-away idea that may see the light of day.  

4) The democrats will likely throw some bones to organized labor to give them greater access and leverage in the work-place.

CONCLUSIONS:

Wake up America, the democratic leadership is hell-bent on controlling every aspect of your life by dividing the nation into identity groups, pitting one group against another, creating a general governmental dependency and thereby perpetuating their control.

National debt does not concern Congress, even though the Congressional Budget Office has for years been telling all of us that the projected debt levels are “unsustainable”.

Even with trillions of dollars on the table, it is doubtful the democrats will acknowledge the herd of elephants in the room; 1) lawlessness, 2) an open border, 3) tons of Cartel illegal drugs and China-produced fentanyl flooding our country and killing record numbers of Americans, 4) accepting and transporting tens of thousands of Covid-positive illegal immigrants to towns and cities across America every day.

The Biden American Rescue Plan, March 2021 clearly exposed an element of America’s human nature; those millions of able-bodied workers would rather accept a federal check and do nothing than answer any one of hundreds of local ads for employment.  What does that tell us about the potential productivity of a disincentivized U.S. welfare state?

Any administration that attempts to lump their four-year policy agenda into a single bill and pass it without due process, debate or sufficient public disclosure is irresponsible and disregards the will of the people it represents.  It is a dangerous precedent.

Senator Joe Manchin, democrat, West Virginia, tells us, “The purpose of the proposed $3.5 trillion in new spending isn’t to solve some urgent problems, but to re-envision America’s social policies.” In this case I believe re-envision is a euphemism for transformation.  

For the past few years, I have not believed it possible for Congress as a whole and Congressional leadership in particular to act any more irresponsibly.  But I have underestimated them.  This moment is an historic low in terms of accountability, integrity, political bias, self-service and lack of concern for the general well-being of all Americans.   

Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO EXECUTION, a book for leaders, a columnist for THE PILOT, a national award-winning local newspaper in Southern Pines, NC and the author of a blog, WeThePeopleSpeaking.com

On the 5th of September this proposal was published by Rip McIntosh to his tens of thousands of subscribers. Rip is a great patriot and publishes the thoughts of a number of writers several times per week. I strongly recommend you subscribe to his web site. This morning he sent me the following comments and has agreed to share them with you. He wrote, “I personally consider this proposal by General Covault of such importance, I am devoting this entire newsletter to its circulation. I urge you to read it carefully and do everything in your power to give it as broad exposure as possible. Short of a Divine Intervention, I can think of nothing that would more substantially improve life in our United States of America than implementation of Universal Service for America at the earliest possible moment.“

1. AUTHOR’S COMMENT:  This is not an article; it is a proposal that has the potential to transform America in a very positive way.  It is long and I appreciate that your time is valuable, but ask that you read it in its entirety.  The subject is compulsory national service for all 18-year-old Americans. This proposal will go absolutely nowhere unless We the People create a movement and force the issue to be debated and decided upon in the Executive Branch and Congress. 

2. BACKGROUND: Here are some thoughts on what we need to consider before launching into a discussion of compulsory national service, a program that has never existed in our nation.   

a. THE DRAFT:  Drafting U.S. men in times of national emergencies has been a tool since the colonies drafted them to fill the ranks of their militias to fight in the Revolutionary War.  The latest draft was in effect from pre-World War II until discontinued in 1973.

b. SELECTIVE SERVICE SYSTEM:  The Selective Service System is run by an agency in the Executive Branch of the federal government. Selective Service is responsible for registration and running a draft in times of national emergency.  Currently, men aged 18-25 who are U.S. citizens or are immigrants living in the U.S. are required to register with the Selective Service System within 30 days of turning 18.  Immigrants must register within 30 days of arriving in the U.S. Those who fail to register will not be eligible for federal student aid, federal job training, or a federal job and may be prosecuted and face a fine of up to $250,000 and/or jail time of up to five years.

A Senate panel’s newly approved defense budget from July, 2021 includes a provision that will require women to register with the Selective Service System at age 18.

c. NATIONAL COMMISSION ON SERVICE.  Since the dissolution of the draft in 1973 there have been sporadic conversations about a compulsory national service program for all young adults.  As part of the FY 2017 Defense Authorization Act, President Trump and the Congress established a National Commission on Military, National and Public Service.  Their specific mission was to accomplish two things:  Conduct a review of the military selective service process and consider methods to increase participation in military, national and public service in order to address national security and other public service needs of the nation.

After two and a half years of extensive public engagement, the Commission issued its final report in March 2020, containing its findings and recommendations which include:

• Requiring women to register with the Selective Service System at age 18.  
• Increasing military outreach, particularly to those areas with a low-propensity to join the armed forces.
• Expanding educational opportunities during military service and developing strategies to recruit and retain in high-demand occupations.
• Expanding civic educational programs in schools.
• Significantly increasing non-military service opportunities in order to create “an expectation of service” by 2031.

The Commission’s report, entitled Inspire to Serve, explains a vision that, “…. every individual will be exposed to voluntary service opportunities throughout their lifetime, beginning with young people….”.  They also repeatedly commented on the need to create an American “culture of service” by 2031.  What was most important about the report was what they did not say.  Two things:

1) They completely failed to recognize the elephant in the room, that is, do we need compulsory national service for everyone 18-year-old? 

2) While they frequently emphasized the importance of creating a national culture of service, they provided zero insights into how that was going to be possible. 

d. CULTURE OF SERVICE:  Over the years I have given culture considerable thought, written about it, lectured on it and guided large organizations through the process.  Here are some of my conclusions:

There is a culture-positive or negative-embedded in every organization, large and small, and it is a powerful and pervasive force in every one of them.

You cannot imprint a new culture on an organization with a speech, memo, email or the words in a Commission report.  It is, in and of itself, a huge undertaking and it may take years or a couple of generations to happen.

The absolute best way to create the Commission’s “culture of service” is to make it a centerpiece of a compulsory service program wherein 99 + % of all young adults can be brought into it through daily discussions and actions over a protracted period of time. In due course, 99 + % of the U.S. population will have been subjected to an identical process.  “Indoctrination” is not a bad word when used in a positive way.  Indoctrination during compulsory service is how a “culture of service” can become part of America’s fabric.

e. HEARINGS:  The final Commission’s hearings were held by the Senate Armed Services Committee on March 11, 2021, where their recommendations appeared to be well received by Senators of both parties.

3. ABOUT THIS DOCUMENT:

A concept of operations is a good place to begin the long-range strategic planning process.  Its purpose is to tell the story by first defining the problem to be solved, providing a vision of the end-state, (i.e., what we believe can be accomplish), and finally, filling in some of the blanks by describing how the whole thing is going to work. When completed the concept of operations can become a public affairs tool or a sales pitch, if you will.   

This document is not the long-range strategic plan.  If and when the concept is accepted by, We the People, Congress and the Executive Branch, a strategic planning team will begin to work the hundreds of details into a phased strategic plan. 

4. BEGIN AT THE BEGINNING with these two questions:

Are there any identifiable problems that need to be solved? Yes. Is there an existing program that addresses these problems? No. Some wise person once said, “If you cannot define the problem, there is no solution.”

Here is a short list of youth-related issues that will continue to plague this nation far into the future unless bold steps are taken now.

a. GANGS:  The FBI reports, “Some 33,000 violent street gangs, motorcycle gangs, and prison gangs with about 1.4 million members are criminally active in the U.S. today. Many are sophisticated and well organized; all use violence to control neighborhoods and boost their illegal money-making activities, which include robbery, drug and gun trafficking, prostitution, human trafficking, and fraud.”  Youth gangs are the training ground for a life of crime. 

The average number of members per gang is reportedly 42.  About half of all homicides in the U.S. are gang-related.  The Justice Department reports that, “The average age of gang members arrested in the U.S. is 17 or 18.”  This information, in and of itself, is sufficient justification for a mandatory youth program in America.  We need to take these young adults off the streets and introduce them to a different way of life.

b. DROP-OUTS AND ILLITERACY: On average 7,000 students drop out of school every day; 90% of them end up on welfare. Nationally, 68% of all males in prison do not have a high school diploma. The National Assessment of Education Program, NAEP (aka “America’s Report Card”), reports that 64% of high school graduates are below proficiency in reading and 76% below proficiency in math.    

Another example: There are 190 Military Occupational Specialties in the U.S. Army.  In North Carolina, 23% of the high school graduates who want to enlist in the Army lack the cognitive skills to perform the most basic tasks and are therefore categorized as functionally illiterate.

An education system in which more than half of students entering 9^th grade either drop out or graduate incapable of further education or satisfactorily performing in the private sector or the military is unsatisfactory.  Increasing proficiency and thereby providing a greater chance for a successful future can be a part of a universal service program.

c. YOUTH OBESITY: It’s is a common, serious and costly disease.  From 2000 to 2020 obesity in the U.S. population increased from about 30% to 45% while severe obesity doubled.  Half of the obesity problem is with adolescents aged 12-19 years. Mandatory participation in daily exercise and counseling on healthy habits will help to establish a healthier future America. 

d. CULTURE It’s a powerful and pervasive force in every organization; it is an organization’s personality. Is it caring, hateful, fast, energetic, visionary, risk-taking, vengeful?  America is drowning in a culture of hate and blame.  A year of character development can change young adults and henceforth, transform America.

e. RACE: There is no way to explicitly measure the state of race relations in the United States, but they are at least not what they should be.  Babies are not born bigoted, disrespecting or hateful.  While growing up they learn it at home, in school, on the playground and in the street. A universal service program’s character development along with integrated team work every day will enhance the understanding and cooperation among all races represented.  The U.S. military has successfully practiced this solution for decades.

f. WELFARE:  It is a fact that the more education one completes, the less likely they are to be on welfare. About 32 million households, or 27.1%, benefit from one or more of the following:  Medicaid, food stamps, subsidized lunches, public housing, unemployment and some sort of direct cash assistance.  Universal Service for America will provide young men and women the opportunity to be better prepared to hold good jobs and stay off welfare.

Before you read on, let’s deal with the overarching question, WHY SHOULD WE HAVE UNIVERSAL SERVICE FOR AMERICA? 

Given these five problem areas (Gangs, Drop-outs, Obesity, Culture, Race and Welfare), the better question is, are these problems in the process of being solved with/by other national programs?  I believe the answer is an unequivocable NO.  Universal Service for America, or as it may become known as, the U.S.A. Program, can be a transformational undertaking and is therefore worth the effort to make it happen. It can become a rite of passage for all Americans.  Please read on.  

5. EXISTING NATIONAL SERVICE ORGANIZATIONS:  There are national service organizations in existence, such as AmeriCorps, YouthBuild, Senior Corps and the Peace Corps. What they have in common is that they are relatively small in size and they are 100% voluntary.  One of the most enduring government youth programs has been Job Corps, a free residential education and job training program for young adults, aged 16-24, run by the Department of Labor.  Let me provide some revelations about Job Corps in order to make a couple important points.

From July 2016 to June 2017, Job Corps reported 3,673 safety and security incidents among the 79,000 enrollees (drugs, assault, alcohol, security breach, serious injury) according to the General Accounting Office analysis.  Other headlines over the years include, “Job Corps is one of the most wasteful, least effective programs in the federal government.” “Congress spends billions on ineffective job-training programs.” “Job Corps, a recipe for waste, fraud and failure.” “The Federal Job Corps training program is a flop.” “The government has taken on a role for which it was never intended, pouring billions of taxpayer dollars into a broken web of job training.”

The point to be made here is that the federal government has a very long history of attempting to build organizations and run them effectively and efficiently.  Their success rate is about zero.  If we are to move forward with Universal Service for America, it must NOT be organized, over-regulated and operated by government officials and bureaucrats.

6. ORGANIZATION AND FUNDING:  To avoid the pit-falls of the decades-old Job Corps program, Universal Service for America should be organized as a national non-governmental organization (NGO).  An NGO is a non-profit, citizen-based undertaking that functions independently of the government.  NGOs are organized on local, national and international levels to serve specific social or political purposes.  Despite their independence from the government, many NGOs receive funding from local, state, and federal governments. 

There are about 1.5 million NGOs operating in the U.S. Widely known examples are Doctors Without Borders and the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP).  The federal government should fund salaries, housing, meals, transportation and medical services for Universal Service for America.

7. OPERATIONAL UNDERPINNINGS: For Universal Service for America to be successful it must encompass, as a minimum, the following:

a. At age 17 all U.S. citizens and non-naturalized immigrants must register for Universal Service for America with the existing Selective Service System. Congress should amend the Selective Service System Act with two changes:

• Amend the enrollment age from 18 to 17.  This will provide Universal Service for America staff with a valid database of potential participants a year in advance of their reporting for duty at age 18.
• Currently the law says that, “Failure to register with the Selective Service is a felony punishable by a fine of up to $250,000 and/or 5 years imprisonment.”
• The law should be amended to read:  An American citizen must register with the Selective Service within 30 days after their 17^th birthday. Male immigrants residing in the United States who are 17 through 25 years of age must register within 30 days of arrival in the U.S. Those who have not done so by their 18^th birthday are subject to imprisonment for five years.  If, after one year in prison, they register with the Selective Service and report to the next available Universal Service for America program, the remainder of the 5-year sentence will be forgiven. 

b. Attendance is mandatory for all high school graduates who are 18 years old plus all 18-year-old non-graduates.  Exceptions include: women who are pregnant or have a child; individuals who are physically or mentally impaired; and those who join the military immediately after high school graduation. Individuals who are head-of-households may apply for an exemption.

c. Universal Service for America will be 12-months in duration beginning June of each year. This needs some discussion:

Unlike AmeriCorps, YouthBuild and Job Corps that may have just a few thousand up to 75,000 enrollees, Universal Service for America will have about four million enrollees on a continuous basis. That is almost twice the size of the entire U.S. military, active duty, Guard and Reserve combined. 

Compulsory service for all 18-year-old Americans and immigrants will be an enormous undertaking.  For a 2-year program, following the first-year enrollment of 4 million people, all succeeding years would have about 8 million continuously in residence.  For example, a small city, population 50,000, would have about 1,600 participants in residence at all times.  A 2-year program may be too large to run efficiently and effectively.

If it is a 12-month program, that begs the question: What impact will it have on all of our colleges and universities which will, the first year of the program, be without an entire incoming freshman class? There are three possible solutions to this problem:

• The first is exempt compulsory service for all high school graduates who will be enrolled as full-time college students by the fall semester after high school graduation.  There are enormous downsides to this alternative: It defeats the overall intent and purpose of the program, which is to create a culture of service for all Americans; many students have no business going to college, but may use college enrollment simply as a way to dodge the compulsory service; and it would create an unhealthy division in America for all times, meaning those who did and those who didn’t “serve”.  It will defeat the advantages resulting from “rite of passage”

• A second alternative is to require all college students to attend at least two, and perhaps three or four summer sessions of Universal Service for America; the first immediately following high school graduation.  There are potential downsides for this alternative:  Every June there will be (in round numbers) about 4 million new candidates for Universal Service for America; about 2.5 million will be college bound in September and 1.5 million will begin their full year of service. 

If the college students are to complete their service commitment by attending only summer sessions, after the first year of the service program there will be an additional surge of 2.5 million (those having just finished one year of collage), 6.5 million total for the second summer; then a summer surge to 8 million the 3^rd June and to 10.5 million for the 4^th June and 10.5 million every summer thereafter.

The logistics associated with those summer surge numbers would be staggering to begin with and creating these summer surges will likely negatively impact the overall quality of the program. 

• The third alternative is for the federal government to create a one-time bailout fund for colleges and universities to offset the no-freshman-class situation that will occur the first, and only, year of Universal Service for America.

Continuing with the program’s OPERATIONAL UNDERPINNINGS:

d. After 6 months in the program, anyone who is qualified to do so may enlist in the U.S. military

e. All attendees will be provided with a photo identification card with personal description information, a Universal Service for America ID number and expiration date.  The ID will enable free local public transportation while in the program. In conjunction with the Selective Service, each states’ DMV facilities will produce and issue the ID cards. 

f. Everyone will be stationed at a location removed from their home of record and will not be stationed with others from their home community.  

g. Men and women participants will not cohabitate.

h. The majority will be stationed in urban areas.

i. Every full-time attendee will be authorized vacation days over religious holidays and during July or August.

j. Lodging, meals, uniforms, transportation and medical care will be provided.  Each attendee will receive a stipend of $500 per month.

k. Uniforms will consist of dark blue pants/shorts, white shirts and a hat.  Uniforms will include a name tag, a Universal Service for America logo, which will include the American flag.

l. Everyone will participate in physical training five days per week.

m. Everyone will abide by the Universal Service for America Code of Conduct.

n. No one in the program is exempt from any local, state or federal laws. Universal Service for America will not provide legal counsel to attendees when apprehended for violations of the law.

o. Transgender individuals will abide by local, state and federal rules in force for where they reside during their term of service.

p. Mandatory unannounced drug testing will be the norm.

q. All will participate in leader training by being team leaders or higher as they move through the program.

r. This should be a no-frills experience for each participant consisting of long work days, community service on the weekends, and basic accommodations. 

s. There will be two Universal Service for America websites: One to keep the general public apprised of every aspect of the program; and the second will be an internal site available to leaders and staff.  Innovation has been the lifeblood of this nation since its inception; best-practices will be templated and shared. Additionally, the internal site can be used to clarify program policies and procedures.

8. PARTICIPATION NUMBERS for a 12-month, all-18-year-old program:  Using 2020 data, it is possible to forecast the approximate number of participants if Universal Service for America could begin operations June 2023; 3.7 million 18-year-old high school graduates, plus 300,000 18-year-old non-graduates and some, yet to be determined, number of 18-year-old non-citizens living in the U.S.

9. A TYPICAL DAY IN UNIVERSAL SERVICE FOR AMERICA:  The intent of the schedule is to address the problems articulated in paragraph 4, gangs, dropouts, illiteracy, obesity, culture, race relations and welfare. And most importantly, to build a culture of service to society.  The days will be tailored to individual needs with the objective of transforming lives and thereby giving them a greater chance at a successful life.

a. Morning Schedule:

• Physical training.
• Gather in a classroom setting, in groups of about 25, with a volunteer instructor, and discuss elements of the Character Development curriculum; see paragraph 10.
• For the remainder of the morning, based on arrangements with local schools, those who have not graduated from high school, could, attend virtual classes and gain credits towards receiving a high school diploma.
• Through arrangements with local Community Colleges, those participants interested in some type of technical training could take morning classes. 
• Those seriously deficient in reading, writing and math skills could attend remedial morning classes.
• Have an “open” period each morning for guest speakers, leadership training, lessons on U.S. history and civics; whatever subjects enhance the overall program.

b. Afternoon schedule: Generally, this will be the time for community service.  There are so many ways to help out and become visible to the public in positive ways, for example:

Clean parks and playgrounds, volunteer at a museum, assist at a walk-a-thon or community run, deliver food to the homebound, work at a food bank, take care of animals at a shelter, tutor students who have fallen behind in their studies, walk kids home from school, donate blood, help kids with their homework, offer free music lessons, coach a youth sports team, teach adults internet skills, teach CPR, assist immigrants with conversational English, chaperone a field trip, help out at a community center, volunteer as a lifeguard, be a crossing guard, do social media for a local nonprofit, help set up a community event, organize a clothing drive, adopt a highway and clean it, participate in musical performances at nursing homes, deliver groceries to the elderly, write letters for a senior citizen, lead an exercise program, sponsor an animal at the zoo, work for a charity like Habitat for Humanity, volunteer at a fire station, teach self-defense, paint over graffiti, work with special-needs kids; there is no end to this list.

10. CHARACTER DEVELOPMENT:  Five days per week, following breakfast, participants will assemble, recite the Pledge of Allegiance and then participate in a character development class.  The Character Curriculum will be, ACCOUNTABILITY, CITIZENSHIP, COMMITMENT, COMPASSION, COURAGE OF CONVICTIONS, COURTESY, CONFIDENCE, HEALTHY HABITS, HONESTY, HONOR, HUMILITY, INTEGRITY, JUDGMENT, LEADERSHIP, MORALITY, PERSEVERANCE, PUNCTUALITY, RESPECT, RESPONSIBILITY, SELF-RESPECT, SELFLESS SERVICE, SPORTSMANSHIP AND TRUST.

Just imagine the impact this can have with four million young adults having a substantive discussion about one of the subjects in the Character Curriculum five days a week and then adjourning to live/be/do/demonstrate those values on a daily basis.  It is a powerful initiative and will displace our current culture of hate and blame.

11. GOVERNMENTAL RESPONSIBILITIES:  For this Non-Governmental Organization, the federal government will be responsible for financing the bulk of operational costs, including salaries, housing, food, transportation and medical services.

The states will use their Division of Motor Vehicles facilities to produce and issue Universal Service for America ID cards for each 17-year-old as they register with the Selective Service.   

Local officials will provide free-of-charge public transportation.  They will also become points of contact for program officials to coordinate the use of participants to fulfill community service tasks.

12. UNIVERSAL SERVICE FOR AMERICA LEADERS IN THE FIELD: There is and always will be a perfect source of men and women to become qualified leaders and staff for the program. Annually the Defense Department retires thousands of men and women who have just finished 20-25 years of service, are looking for a second career and all have four things in common.  1) They are proven leaders.  2) They have years of experience teaching and training.  3) They understand standards and have spent two decades living up to them.  4)  And perhaps most importantly, they have served in a totally integrated inter-racial environment with an overarching value base of accountability, respect and trust.  What more could one ask for in a person to lead and mentor the young adults? 

13. OPERATIONAL LOCATIONS:  It will not be practical to run the program with individual participants scattered across sparsely populated rural areas.  This will, by necessity, be a program where they are housed and operate in urban areas with population densities of at least 50,000.  The total U.S. population living in areas with at least 50,000 density is about 250 million.  Doing the math, there are about 5,000 urban segments, each with a population of about 50,000.  To accommodate all 4 million participants June through the following May would require housing nearly 800 participants per 50,000 population segment. A city of 200,000 would need to house 3,200 (800 x 4) etc. across the U.S. urban landscape. 

14. UNIVERSAL SERVICE FOR AMERICA HEADQUARTER’S OPERATIONAL CONCEPT:  Centralized planning with emphasis on maximum decentralized execution is a must.  The federal government is infamous for getting it backwards. When they attempt to run an operation, invariably they will, through thousands of pages of regulations, create a top-heavy bureaucratic mass attempting to micromanage all aspects of an operation.  And, in most cases they fail.  Without decentralized decision making and execution, innovation and operational flexibility will be unachievable.

Centralized planning by the CEO, the planning staff and Board of Directors will prescribe policy and articulate achievable standards.

15. LAUNCH THIS OPERATION WITH A PHASED PLAN: In long-range strategic planning, phasing the operation is an imperative. Simply put, at the front end you don’t know what you don’t know. As you move forward in time, key data will come to light and can then be properly assimilated into the total equation.

a. Phase 1, the fall of 2021: If this was a military operation this step would be called “shaping the Battlespace.” For this program to succeed we need a strong, robust, multi-faceted Public Relations Campaign to generally enlighten everyone and to convince the general population that this is worth the effort, worth the expense and will make our nation better and stronger than it can otherwise become.  “Mandatory participation” is potentially a tough sell.

The intent is to get some traction with the White House, Congress, Governors, local officials, the general public and media. A good start would be if enough people who agree with this Concept of Operations would send it on to every state and federal politician in the country. Additionally, seek to make compulsory service a frequently debated issue on the opinion pages in newspapers across the country.

Also in phase 1, find a pro bono CEO for this program.  The first order of business will be to pull together a pro bono Board of Directors, composed of movers-and-shakers to find financing for a national Public Relations Campaign.

b. Phase 2, early 2022: The CEO and his/her Board of Directors should draft the proposed legislation and push for Universal Service for America Non-Governmental Organization, NGO, funding to be included in the President’s budget when it is sent to Congress, Phase 3, by the first Monday in February, 2022.  The first-year funding will be modest in that it may be prudent to begin the programs with a pilot program.

It would be very difficult to begin this operation with a full complement of young adult participants (about 4 million) on day one and a fully-staffed and trained national organization to run it.  Therefore, the first-year funding should accommodate a pilot program with about 1,000 volunteer participants in each state.

c. Phase 3 also in the spring of 2022: The CEO will give the states a heads-up that, if passed by Congress, the law will require the states’ DMV facilities to be prepared to coordinate with the Selective Services System and register prospective attendees. All Americans who will reach their 18th birthday on or before 1 June, 2023 must register for the Universal Service for America and may volunteer to attend the pilot program beginning in the summer of 2023.

d. Phase 4 will begin in 2022: The President signs the bill which will provide pilot-program funding for Universal Service for America as a Non-Governmental Organization. Hopefully that should happen by 1 October 2022 when the government’s fiscal year begins.

Upon passage of the Universal Service for America Act the CEO will hire a staff to complete the phased plan.  There will be hundreds of issues to work on, for example: develop an organization chart; hire and train leaders and staff; logistics for housing and feeding attendees; initial registration to get the program started; develop a national database of those who register as a 17-year-old; develop a recruiting and training program for volunteers; liaise with state and local authorities; construct plans for Character Development; write a Code of Conduct; determine pay scales for permanent and temporary hires, etc.

The planning staff must also deal with the subject of discipline, a very delicate and important issue.  Inevitably, established rules and standards will be violated. The planners must define in detail who will have disciplinary authority and what the punishments will be for various categories of infractions.  Additionally, the headquarters staff must have a robust Inspector General Directorate to deal with complaints, potentially fraudulent activities, and any other activities that may call into question the integrity of the organization. 

e. Phase 5 will begin in June of 2023: Bringing 18-year-old volunteers into the program in each state.

16. VOLUNTERS: Where do the volunteers come from to teach the Character Development Curriculum? There are about 70 million Baby Boomers currently retiring at a rate of about 10,000 per day and many are looking for something interesting, meaningful, and challenging to do in retirement. Additionally, many local organizations, (country clubs, churches, charitable organizations, etc.) will be willing to sign up for a number of volunteer positions and keep them filled on a permanent basis.

17. COMMUNITY INTERACTION: The nation needs to buy in to the idea of compulsory national service. They need to meet these young people, see them volunteering and working in teams for the betterment of the community. Therefore, a key to success will be the extent to which the participants can be temporarily joined up with businessmen and women, civil servants, first responders, and every part of what is going on in he community ever day. Arrange for participants to walk the beat with a law enforcement officer, spend a night in jail, see what goes on in the backroom of a supermarket, ride along when a fire truck is called out, spend some nights in a hospital emergency room and be a part of every community group doing volunteer work. Participants need to be visible, see the good, the bad, and the ugly America and expand their horizons by seeing and doing new and different things every day.

A logical and valuable extension of this interaction is to institute, in every community, a mentoring program wherein leaders in all walks of life can personally, one-on-one interact with one or more of the participants over the year and by extension, into the future.  Mentoring can be a life-changing event for both. 

18. VISION: All planning should begin at the end with a clear vision of the end-state. This first step is a must-do because there is truth in the old saying, “If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there.”

The VISION for UNIVERSAL SERVICE FOR AMERICA is to set in motion, through positive training and mentoring of all the nation’s 18-year-old young adults, a process that will mitigate the problems associated with gangs, dropouts, illiteracy, obesity, race, culture and welfare. Over a period of years Universal Service for America will transform this country into a better, safer and more prosperous place for everyone. 

Vision is WHERE we need to go with this vital and important program.  

19. MISSION: Once in place, there needs to be an overarching clear and brief statement defining what it is the organization is to focus on and accomplish every day. For example, the U.S. Army’s mission is to prepare to fight and win the nation’s wars; clarity and brevity.

The UNIVERSAL SERVICE FOR AMERICA MISSION is to annually engage all 18-year-old Americans in a program that will enhance their education, build character, strengthen their self-determination and set in motion a lifelong appreciation for community service, all while internalizing and learning to live in a culture of accountability, trust and respect. 

The mission is WHAT Universal Service for America needs to engage in each day.   

20. THE CEO: I have contacted one of America’s most important, influential and respected voices on cultural, political, and educational issues. He has held numerous positions of great importance to America to include and Executive Branch department head for a previous president. He is a frequent guest on national news programs speaking on current critical issues and is a voice for traditionally American values. I am in hopes that he will consider taking on the position of CEO, Universal Service for America.

21. CONCLUSIONS: 

a. It is within the art of the possible for Universal Service for America to become a valuable national recruiting resource. The military can now be more focused on a single group of 18-year-old Americans.  Local businesses may find a beneficial “fit” with some of the participants and offer them positions at the end of their national service obligation.  Technical businesses may look at the training the participants are engaged in at the community colleges to find prospective hires. The federal and state civilian work forces are constantly in need of an infusion of young talent, etc.

b. The percentage of the U.S. population which has benefited from compulsory service will grow every year and become transformational and drastically reduce the severity of the problems we are faced with today; gangs, dropouts, illiteracy, obesity, culture of blame and hate, race relations and welfare.

c. This campaign with its character development, daily emphasis on values and teamwork, participants living and working in a culture of accountability, trust and respect can ultimately change how a nation thinks and acts, from the bottom up, for generations to come. 

d. The power of the Character Development being discussed with every participant each day will result in the following:

As participants learn more about a life of accountability, they will be less likely to resort to hatred and blame.

Participants who are steeped in commitment, confidence, perseverance, punctuality and responsibility do not skep classes or work schedules, do not fall behind or drop out and are more likely to pursue additional education, get a jo and stay off welfare.

Participants who are deeply rooted in trust and respect will rally against bullying and are unlikely to become racially bigoted adults. And they will believe, “they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character.” MLK

Participants who accept being compassionated, courteous, honorable, and demonstrate the courage of their convictions, will not return home to their street gangs.

Participants who accept honesty, morality and integrity as their guiding light are more likely to become life-long upstanding citizens.

Participants who understand, live and accept a life of selfless service are unlikely to become self-serving adults.

Participants who gain an understanding that there is a lot they don’t yet know and even art of what they believe might be incorrect, will have the quality of humility.

Participants who gain an understanding of self-respect will recognize that they are now better than they used to be and can be counted on in times of temptation because they are morally dependable.

With this value base, graduates of Universal Service for America are more likely to exercise good judgement and become good–to-great leaders.

e. Universal Service for America will be expensive but there is a huge difference between an expense and an investment. 

f. Amtrak is a good example of a tax-payer funded government -run expense. Fifty-one years ago, President Nixon signed the Rail Passenger Service Act creating the National Railroad Passenger Corporation, later known as Amtrak, to take over intercity passenger rail obligations. Amtrak has lost money every year requiring a federal subsidy.  In 2019 it was $1.9 billion.

The Northeast corridor is the crown jewel of Amtrak. Interestingly, 92% of its riders have a college degree and an average income of $170,000 a year. Yet, taxpayers subsidize $60 of each Amtrak ticket on that line. As if that is not enough, the government Covid relief packages in 2020 provided $2 billion dollars to Amtrak.  Additionally, the infrastructure bill passed by the Senate in August, 2021 contains $66 billion for intercity rail. That, Mr. and Mrs. taxpayer, is a government “expense.”

Universal Service for America, on the other hand, should not be categorized as a government expense; it is an investment in the future of our great nation.  Yes, it will be expensive but the pay-back is incalculable.  Go back and review the problems articulated in Paragraph 4, associated with young Americans today and then ask yourself if those problems could be even partially eliminated, would it be worth the investment? 

Additional take-aways from this subparagraph on expense vs. investment: 1) The government must never take over the program and attempt to run it.  If that happens the program will fail from being ineffective, inefficient and lacking in ingenuity and 2) The Congress must never be allowed to insert its partisan influence into the program’s curriculum via the annual appropriation to the NGO. If they do, the program’s integrity will be lost. 

22. A PARTING THOUGHT: While writing this Concept of Operations, some of my mentors and confidants suggested looking at the Israeli program of mandatory military service for all men and women . Four things were brought to my attention:

Mandatory military service has become a “rite of passage” for all Israeli citizens. the U.S.A. Program can become that or all Americans.

The army serves as Israel’s melting pot. Participant from every background are blended together for better understanding, appreciation and tolerance of each other. The U.S.A. Program can do that in the United States.

Women have equal status and equal responsibilities. the U.S.A. Program can promote and advance that in our nation.

Service in Israel’s defense force is viewed as a precursor to the nation’s economy which has grown faster than any other developed country in the past 25 years. The parallel is that these young people learn how to solve problems, work with diverse groups of people and build networks. The U.S.A. Program can do that in the United States and easily offset the program investment dollars.

Israelis consider the end result of their mandatory service to be national pride, skill and gender equality.  It can do the same in the United States.  Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery; we should not be too proud to copy something that works for others. 

23. KEYS TO SUCCESS: A criical step in every long -range strategic planning effort is to STOP, about now when the oveerall concept of Operations has been thought through and at least touched on most of teh necessary questions (who-what-when-where-why-and-how?) and then ask, what are the keys to success? Or stated another way, what can cause this to fail? the keys to success for Universal Service for America are:

a. A Public Relations Campaign that is nation-wide and very robust.

b. Resist becoming fully engaged until we have had the opportunity to learn from a pilot program of at least one year. Learn to walk before we try to run.

c. Character Development is the pillar that will make Universal Service for America last a lifetime. In the daily routine, the period devoted to Character Development must be priority number one.

d. Everything in the program must contribute to and point toward creating a lasting culture of ACCOUNTABILITY, TRUST AND RESPECT.

24. BOTTOM LINE:

a. If goodness and hence greatness is to be regained for this country, it will be accomplished one person at a time through character development and a culture shift from blame and hate to accountability, trust and respect.

b. Just for a moment imagine, across this great nation, millions of young adults in a classroom with their hands on their hearts, looking at the American flag, reciting the Pledge or Allegiance and then setting down with a dedicated patriot volunteer to discuss character and values. the result will be transformational for generations to come.

c. Why are we doing this? To paraphrase a French political philosopher, Alexis de Tocqueville, who came to America in the 1820’s to study our nation; he concluded in his book, Democracy in America, that America is great because it is good, when it ceases to be good it will cease to be great. there needs to be a time and place wherein all Americans can contemplate goodness and thereby plan to live a more fulfilling and productive life by being all they can be. That time is now and that place will be as a participant in Universal Service for America. Goodness doesn’t just happen; it is a work in progress. Our intent has to be focused on refreshing and perpetuating America’s goodness.

25. WHAT CAN YOU DO? The short answer is get involved; every one of you. Use this Concept of Operations as an information source and talk up the subject of compulsory service with friends and neighbors. Summarize this concept and send it to the editorial page of your local newspaper. By whatever means you received this copy, forward it to your email list.

My thanks go out to every one of you for reading this.

Very Respectfully,

Marvin Covault

Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen U.S. Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO EXECUTION, a book for leaders, a columnist for THE PILOT, a national award-winning local newspaper in Southern Pines, NC and the author of a blog, WeThePeopleSpeaking.com

BOTTOM LINE: “Education is the wellspring from which a nation ascends … or the quagmire into which it sinks.  Education is everything.”  Michael Russell

INTENT:  My intent here is to make two points.  One, what is the magnitude of the problem and secondly how do we fix it? 

HOW BIG IS THE PROBLEM? Huge. Education is perhaps this nation’s greatest disgrace.  Yet every four years we go through the same song-and-dance.  Candidates promise to spend more billions of dollars, resulting in more top-down regulation which then requires a bigger inefficient and ineffective Department of Education bureaucracy.  This is a decades-old formula for failure as we spend more dollars per student and watch our world rating in education continue to decline.

WHERE ARE WE TODAY?  Education has been headline-news over the past 18 months.  The pandemic shut down schools and 60 million kids and 180 million adults with children under age 18 had to learn, or not, to endure remote classrooms.  More recently the national debate has been about including critical race theory as a foundational piece of every school’s curriculum and about masks and vaccinations. But what we do not talk about is the elephant in the room, embarrassing, ridiculous education results.

THE NATION’S REPORT CARD: The National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) is the only assessment that measures what U.S. students know and can do in various subjects across the nation, states, and in some urban districts. Also known as The Nation’s Report Card, NAEP has provided important information about how students are performing academically since 1969.  They grade mathematics, reading, science, writing, technology, arts, civics, geography, economics, and U.S. history for grades 4^th and 8^th every 2 years and 12^th grade every 4 years.

PRE-COVID NAEP REPORT CARD: In 2019 NAEP tested 150,600 grade 4 students, 143,100 grade 8, and 26,700 grade 12 students and reported:  Here is a summary pulled from a large comprehensive report:

Reading:  The assessment measures reading comprehension by asking students to read selected grade-appropriate materials and answer questions based on what they have read. 

                                                Grade 4           Grade 8           Grade 12

NOT proficient:                         59%                 66%                   76%

Mathematics: The assessment measures both mathematics knowledge and the students’ ability to apply their knowledge in problem-solving situations.

                                                Grade 4           Grade 8           Grade 12

NOT proficient:                         65%                   66%              63%

Other subjects were even worse.  For high school seniors 88% NOT proficient in history, 77% NOT proficient in writing ability and 78% NOT proficient in science. 

NAEP defines “proficiency” as follows:  NAEP student achievement levels are performance standards that describe what students should know and be able to do. Results are reported at three achievement levels, Basic, Proficient, and Advanced. What we-the-people want and deserve from our schools are high school graduates who are “proficient”, that is they are ready to go out into the world with the skills to put together a successful and prosperous life.  The above percentages represent the number that cannot score up to the “proficient” level.  Generally speaking, two thirds of our high school graduates are not adequately prepared to do that.  And that says nothing about the 7,000 students who drop out every school day.   

More snapshots that illustrate the problems in government-run public schools:  Providence, RI:  Only 5% of eighth graders are proficient in math.  Newark, NJ: 21% proficiency in math.  North Carolina: 44 % of North Carolina fourth-graders are not proficient in reading.  Wisconsin: Black American eighth graders perform only slightly better than white fourth graders in reading and math.  And so it goes across the country.  A recent survey found that 20% of American adults cannot name even one of the three branches of government.

GOVERNMENT-RUN vs CHARTER:  One cannot adequately analyze education results without getting inside the government-run public schools vs charter schools discussion. Let’s begin by understanding what a charter school is.

Facts shared by nearly all the states: Charter schools are authorized by the State Board of Education. Charter schools are tuition-free schools of choice that are operated mostly by independent non-profit boards of directors. 

The two major teachers’ unions, the National Education Association (NEA) and the American Federation of Teachers (AFT) consistently spread false information against charter schools. 

Misinformation # 1: “Charter schools are unaccountable, private schools that take money away from district schools.” Truth: Charter schools are 100% accountable to state authorities. Charter school students are typically funded at $0.73/dollar compared to district school students.

Misinformation # 2: “Charter schools don’t serve a diverse population of students; they get to hand pick their students to populate their schools.” The truth is, if a child is eligible to attend a public government school, parents may apply to any charter school.  If a charter school receives more applications than its capacity, a lottery is conducted. Discrimination based on race, national origin, or religion is prohibited.

Misinformation # 3: “Charter schools are not academically superior to government-run public schools.”  Truth: In New York City, for example, in a number of minority communities, traditional public school and charter school classes are co-located in a common building.  In one co-mingled building in 28 different classes less than 10% of the government-run public school students tested to a proficient level while 81-100% of charter students were proficient.

Why do charter school students perform better?  Two reasons:  1) Government-run public schools are top-down highly regulated vs charters with their own organization, planning, and programs allowing them the freedom to use innovative school models and customized approaches to curriculum, staffing , budgeting and teaching.

2) Government-run public schools are highly unionized while charters are not. With teacher union support, on average it takes about two years of a Principal’s effort to fire a teacher for poor performance. Unsatisfactory teachers are not being held accountable. By contrast, if charter students do not measure up to standards, the school is subject to being shut down by state law.  Is accountability important in education?  Yes, it is the ultimate arbiter.

CONCLUSION, TEACHERS’ UNIONS ARE NOT A PART OF THE SOLUTION, THEY ARE A BIG PART OF THE PROBLEM.  Two facts lead to this conclusion:

One, generally, across the nation, charter school students score higher on achievement tests than students in government-run public schools.

Two, this is a summary of what the union leaders are telling we-the-people about charter schools: Charter schools are privately-operated, deregulated, segregated, poorly-supervised, de-unionized scandal-ridden contract schools that drain much-needed funds from demonized public schools.  Those statements are all lies.

To illustrate how out-of-control the teachers unions can get, when California was considering sending teachers back in to the classroom, the Los Angeles teachers’ union made the following demands: defund police, a moratorium on new charter schools, new wealth taxes on California millionaires and billionaires and Medicare-for-all at the federal level.  Three questions come to mind: 1) How did they get so far out of their lane?  2) Why are they the final decision maker on when teachers return to the classroom? 3) How did they get that much power and influence?

THE DEMOCRAT PARTY AND EDUCATION: Biden on education during the 2020 campaign: “There are some charter schools that work.”  Wow, what a resounding endorsement!  And, “I will stop all federal funding for for-profit charter schools.” Only about 16 percent of charter schools across the country are operated by for-profit entities.

The Democrat party traditionally supports everything the teachers’ unions are saying and doing which is not necessarily good for education. But it is good for campaigning; in 2016 the two largest teachers’ unions contributed $41 million dollars to candidates with 94% going to Democrats.

The Democrat Governor and legislature in Oregon, July 2021, found a solution to the dismal reporting that the state’s high school graduates had failed to master essential skills. The governor signed into law a suspension of the state requirements that students demonstrate proficiency in reading, writing and math.  That simple piece of legislation just told the teachers, Principals, Superintendents and school boards that they will not be held accountable for passing out high school diplomas to illiterate graduates. 

FIXING EDUCATION begins with an understanding that education without standards is a failed system; education without accountability is a failed system.  We have a failed system.

Since the Federal Government established the Department of Education in 1979, we have seen one failed program after another as each succeeding administration tries to fix education from the top down with hundreds of billions of dollars and tens of thousands of bureaucrats. What to do?  We have to change the way we solve education problems with more decentralized decision making and execution.

Learn from charter schools. As pointed out earlier, charters are turning out better educated graduates because they are allowed to operate with their own organization, planning, and programs allowing them the freedom to use innovative school models and customized approaches to curriculum, staffing, budgeting and teaching.  Big, centralized government bureaucracies stifle all of that.

We need to begin education reform by doing away with the federal Department of Education.  Turn it into a small agency principally dedicated to handling federal grants to education.  This will in turn take education out of national politics and hopefully make it less partisan.

Decentralize education by putting the responsibility for quality education squarely on the states where it can be more directly scrutinized by we-the-people. 

AN ORGANIZATION WITHOUT STANDARDS IS A FAILED ORGANIZATION:  Applying standards to education makes the teaching game-plan simple to define. It begins with the identification of an end state standard for a particular time period.  For example, there must be a standard for the end of first semester fourth grade math.  Given that standard the teacher will then develop a week-by-week lesson plan to achieve that standard with every student.  Teach to a standard, then test.  Teach to the next level, then test again.  And, so it goes week after week for 13 years, K-12.  The concept is simple and there will be no need for hundreds of pages of regulations, frequent recurring reports, no need for legions of bureaucrats providing oversight and requirements for national testing.

HOW DO WE ESTABLISH THE STANDARDS?  It is not difficult; it can be done quickly and does not require any bureaucrats, regulations or tax dollars to do it. Here are the steps to take, for example at the State level, led by the Governor.  The governor is accountable for standards.

The governor will set up a summer work session by inviting selected teachers and Principals to establish education standards.

On day-one there will be a meeting of three experienced outstanding kindergarten teachers and three equally outstanding elementary school Principles.  Their task is to define what every Kindergarten student should achieve by school year end; that is, the end state standard. Having done that, they will then outline, in general terms, what to achieve during each of the six-week intervals on the way to the end state. That’s it, they are done.  The kindergarten standards are set.  Every elementary school principal and kindergarten teacher in the state will then work to achieve that standard.

A similar group of 1^st grade teachers, who sat in on the kindergarten session but did not participate, now have a clear understanding of the kindergarten end-state which clearly defines their start point for 1^st grade standards. They then set about to establish end of 1^st grade standards.

And so it would go on day after day during a summer-long session to define standards for every grade and every course K-12. 

AN ORGANIZATION WITHOUT ACCOUNTABILITY IS A FAILED ORGANIZATION.  If the accountable Governor has established viable, understandable standards for all subjects and all grades, accountability immediately moves down to the local level. 

The local Board of Education and the Superintendent are accountable to the local public, we-the-people, for institutionalizing the standards. That begins with their school Principals’ job description, mission statement, goals, focus etc. however they want to phrase it. The Principal will be accountable for quality instruction to standard of every subject in every classroom every day; period. It is the Principal’s number one priority every day and whatever is second priority should rarely see the light of day; period.

How does the principal’s focus get translated into the classroom?  It begins with good old fashioned lesson plans. Every teacher is accountable for preparing lesson plans on a week-by-week basis that lead directly to the standard (for example) established for end of first semester 4^th grade math.

The Principal’s accountability begins at the beginning of the year when he/she goes over every lesson plan with each teacher to insure there is a clear path to the required end-state; that is, what the student must know and understand at the end of each semester. 

The Principle should have all the lesson plans in a 3-ring binder or on an iPad.  Every day he/she will take the lesson plans and visit classrooms. If the teacher is behind schedule, if the instruction is sub-par, if the students are obviously not “getting it” there must then be a one-on-one Principal/teacher “discussion” at the end of that day.  Fix it. Accountability.  

Accountability on the part of the Principal should include creating conditions for success. That is, an open-door/open discussion atmosphere, an environment in which initiative and innovation are encouraged and best practices sharing is the norm and reenforced with a culture of trust and respect.  

Teacher accountability is to teach/test, teach/test so as to know at all times if the kids “get it” and if they do not, re-teach, tutor, whatever it takes to not let a student get behind.  Getting behind in 4^th grade leads to being further behind in 5^th grade etc. until they eventually become one of the 7,000-per-day dropouts. 

SEPARATING THE WHEAT FROM THE CHAFF:  Teachers and leaders.

Teachers:  Just as in any other organization, schools have key individuals (in this case teachers) who can be categorized as great, good, mediocre or poor performers.  How can you tell?  There is a good chance that poor performing students have a mediocre or poor teacher.  These are the teachers who will say in a huff, “Well, I know how to present the material but I can’t make them learn;” blaming their failures on someone else. In contrast is the teacher with students who are doing well and that teacher not only knows how to present the subject matter but also knows how to make the students WANT to learn.

Leaders:  In all large organizations, industry, government, military and in this case education, there are elements (branches, divisions, schools) that are drowning in mediocracy.  One thing that may be common in all of these is what I call consensus-to-fail.  It is an unwritten, unstated but also alive and functioning operational understanding wherein the leader is “saying” without actually saying it out loud, “I will not hold you responsible for being mediocre subordinates if you will not hold me responsible for being a mediocre leader. When one walks into an organization like that there is a feeling, a sense that initiative, innovation, high standards are not the order of the day and they are completely satisfied with mediocracy.

There are some schools that are consistently poor performing organizations.  If it is a charter school their charter will be pulled.  If it is a government-run public school the usual solution is to throw more money at the problem.  Additionally, one reason poor performing schools have a tendency to remain substandard is that when a great or good teacher is hired and they get a sense of the consensus-to-fail culture, they want no part of it and they move on.  

With this emphasis on transforming education at the point of execution there is going to be demand for good-to-great leadership at the local level. The Superintendent is the first level where quality instruction becomes that position’s number one priority.  On a daily basis the Superintendent must lead, mentor and observe the first-line leaders the school Principals. Unrelenting focus on quality instruction.

Many school districts will be faced with the problem of not having enough experienced leaders at the Superintendent/Principal level.  Many individuals in those positions were placed there based on the fact that they were excellent teachers but may in fact have never had a day of leadership training.  There is always an easy fix at the local level and it is free.  Every community has its share of successful civilian and/or military leaders either still employed or retired.  The board of education could easily set up mandatory Saturday morning leader development seminars for the Superintendent and all of the school Principles.  Solicit the local leaders to participate pro bono in the seminars.

This is not rocket science; this is leadership and accountability and unrelenting focus at the point of execution.  Some teachers will probably complain to their union representative. Good, that’s when the Superintendent and/or the local Board of Education steps in and explains to the union how the soup is made in their school district.   

Sometimes large and seemingly insurmountable problems have a simple, common-sense solution.  I believe that education in America can be put back on track.  But it is going to take some draconian action by the President and Congress.  Do away with the Department of Education.  Cut out all the federal bureaucratic regulations and reporting requirements. Get politics out of education, just let it work on its own at the local level.  We-the-people cannot rely on some nameless faceless bureaucrat in Washington to solve our local education problems.  But if the accountable local Board of Education members get off track, we can for sure vote them out of office.  The local Superintendent and school Principals are people we know and can talk to.

RECAP:  EDUCATION NEEDS A NATIONAL TRANSFORMATION WHICH WILL ENTAIL, AS A MINIMUM DOING THE FOLLOWING:

• Do away with the Dept of Education and it rules, regulations, reporting requirements and bureaucrats.
• Expand school choice with more charter schools.
• Decentralize education to the states to establish standards.
• Decentralize education to the school districts for accountability.
• Find a way to curb the power, control and authority of the teachers’ unions.

Achievable standards and clearly articulated accountability is a formula for dramatically raising students’ “proficiency” in all subjects across America. It does not begin in Washington, it begins with state-wide standards and is accomplished at the point of execution, inside the school house one day at a time.   

Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO EXECUTION, a book for leaders, a columnist for THE PILOT, a national award-winning local newspaper in Southern Pines, NC and the author of a blog, WeThePeopleSpeaking.com

February 29, 2020, US and Taliban sign an agreement that sets the terms for a US withdrawal from Afghanistan by May 1, 2021.

April 14, 2021, President Biden announced plans to pull all US Military forces from Afghanistan by September 11, 2021.

July 8, Biden says military withdrawal from Afghanistan will conclude August 31^st.

Point:  None of what is currently taking place in Afghanistan was a surprise to the Biden Administration. Here is some of the dialogue that has taken place over the past six weeks:

Biden: “That is not true” he said when asked about the claim that US intelligence has concluded that the Afghan government would likely collapse.

Biden: “It was not inevitable that the Taliban will take over Afghanistan.”

When Biden was asked whether there was any comparison between his withdrawal from Afghanistan and the humiliating retreat from Vietnam, his response was: “None whatsoever. Zero.”  Note: That is perhaps the most accurate statement he has made.  This withdrawal is Vietnam plus Iran 1979 plus Benghazi to the tenth power.  

Biden: “The pace with which the Taliban have gained ground in recent weeks has only solidified the merits of my decisions.”  Would that be the “merits” of withdrawing the military before the civilians?  At a later date, “I don’t think it (the withdrawal) was a failure.” Then why do we have tens of thousands of American citizens unaccounted for?

Biden and General Milley, Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff, on the Afghan National Army.  Biden 14 July: “I trust the capacity of the 300,000-man Afghan military.”  Milley 21 July: “Afghan forces have the capacity to fight and defend their country.” 

Biden: “We are assured that the Taliban will be cooperating in the effort to get American citizens out of the country over the next few weeks.”  Biden: “There were no reports of people being stopped from reaching the airport by the Taliban.”  Pentagon reveals Taliban beating Americans enroute to airport.  Note: are we to believe that our president thinks the Taliban are trustworthy? 

 General Milley: “I have previously said in sworn testimony before Congress that the intelligence clearly indicated multiple scenarios were possible. One of those was an outright Taliban takeover following a rapid collapse of the Afghan security forces and the government.” Note:  This would lead one to believe the Defense Department had built a plan for that contingency.  However, at General Milley’s press conference after the Taliban complete takeover: “There was nothing that I or anyone else saw that indicated a collapse of this army and this government in 11 days.” Oh yes there was, in July, 23 State Department staff at the Kabul embassy informed Secretary of State Blinken of exactly that…. Kabul will fall quickly to the Taliban.

Biden, 16 August address to the nation: “We are moving quickly to execute the plans we had put in place to respond to every contingency including the rapid collapse we’re seeing now.”  Note: Plans in place for every contingency? I don’t think so; what about the evacuation of tens of thousands of Americans now under the complete control of Taliban fighters? 

Biden, 16 August address to the nation: “Our only vital national interest in Afghanistan remains today what it has always been: preventing a terrorist attack on American homeland.” Question:  The safety of tens of thousands of American citizens controlled by the Taliban is not a vital national interest right now?

Biden and Sec Def Austin: Biden 16 August, “Over the coming days, we intend to transport out thousands of American citizens who have been living and working in Afghanistan.” Sec Def Austin 18 August (When asked whether the U.S. has the capability to do that) “We do not have the capability to go out and gather large amounts of people.” What the Sec Def or Chairman should have said is, we have the greatest capability in the world to ensure safe passage for all Americans in Afghanistan to a departure airfield.  We are awaiting approval from the president to execute. And both should have been prepared to resign over the issue. 

Biden 16 August: “As we carry out this departure, we have made it clear to the Taliban: If they attack our personnel or disrupt our operation, the US presence will be swift and the response will be swift and forceful.”  We will defend our people with devastating force if necessary.”

Sec Def Austin 18 August: “The US has roughly 4,500 troops on the ground at Hamid Karzai International Airport.  But those forces will not be sent beyond the airfield perimeter to quell the chaos or help people pass Taliban checkpoints.” Question, which one is telling us the truth?     

How many times have we heard the president tell us, “We are in discussions with the Taliban”?  Is Biden so naïve that he actually believes the Taliban command and control is sufficient for their leaders to be communicating rules of engagement to the mostly-illiterate thugs who are manning the checkpoints throughout the country?  

Biden apparently did not talk with key NATO allies before the Taliban took complete control of Afghanistan.  While the president told us,” I have seen no question of our credibility from our allies around the world,” the world was sounding off loud and clear.  For example, German soon-to-be Chancellor Armin Laschet said, “This is the greatest debacle that NATO has seen since its foundation, and it is an epochal change that we are facing.”  Also the U.K. has roundly condemned Joe Biden’s poor and unilateral decision-making, even going so far as both parties in British Parliament holding Biden “in contempt.” 

The president’s mis-statement about our allies and NATO begs the questions.  a) Is he just making this up as he goes along? Or b) is he deliberately lying to us believing we are too dumb to understand the truth? Or c) Biden simply doesn’t pay enough attention to the world around him to see it? Or d) His handlers are sabotaging him with false information on his teleprompter?  Whichever answer is correct it is disappointing, alarming and the American people deserve better.  What is equally alarming is some of the US media keeps pretending the emperor is not naked.

How many Americans must be evacuated from Afghanistan?  State and Defense Department spokespersons, Price and Kirby: “I don’t know.”  One might then ask, what size force do we need to safely evacuate I-don’t-know-thousand people? 

How incredible is this?  Is this 1821 or 2021?  From personal experience with the State Department, this I-don’t-know response does not surprise me.  But I do know the Defense Department does know how to plan for crisis-related evacuations, or at least did.  It was 1978, the Cold War was in full swing and I was commanding a nuclear-capable artillery battalion as part of the US 3^rd Infantry Division near the Czechoslovakia border, where we were staring down four Soviet tank divisions. Under that scenario, how were we going to evacuate tens of thousands of military dependents if necessary?  It’s not rocket science.  Part of the overall plan was that my wife had a car, she could evacuate our two small daughters, she knew the route to take to her rally location which happened to be the Frankfurt airport.  My family was briefed on our evac responsibilities the day we arrived in country and were kept current for three years. 

No one, not one single person during the past ten days of this crisis has ever mentioned the civilians’ evac plan.  Obviously, there isn’t one.  Nice going State Department. 

Comment on Biden’s address to the nation Sunday the 22^nd.  Nice numbers about how many individuals have been flown out of Kabul, but, Mr. President, how many are still out there unaccounted for and literally under the gun of Taliban radical jihadists? And how are they going to get to the Kabul airport?  That is what we-the-people tuned in to hear, not about what a great job the president believes he is doing.

Biden 22 August: “Evacuation will be hard and painful.”  Note: Of course it will be painful but it didn’t have to be.  Without a plan, everything is chaos.

Sunday, 22 August address to the nation the president told us everything is going well and I’m doing a great job. Note:  Americans have always been great at accomplishing the nearly impossible in times of crisis, especially the military because every day they train to innovate and persevere at the point of execution.

CONCLUSIONS:

No doubt the next generation of terrorists will be superbly armed with the 600,000 small arms we could have/should have evacuated under a pre-planned deliberate process.

Administration-wide incompetence. Don’t blame the soldiers, don’t blame their junior leaders, don’t blame the Division Commanders; this is all about the Washington arrogance, stupidity and centralized control.

The US has, in just a few days’ time, become the laughing stock of the world and every time our Commander in Chief opens his mouth or reaches for another 3×5 cad, it gets worse.   

The White House “handlers” have figured out that the president occasionally needs to take a few, but not many, questions from the media.  It is not lost on America and the rest of the world that everything is pre-scripted on cards; who to call on, what their question will be and what the president should say.  Its pathetic, its embarrassing and it should not be happening.  We need to hear our Commander in Chief speak from the heart, demonstrate depth and breadth of knowledge and understanding of the problem. But no, everything we hear is from the pen of a White House handler.  Who is in charge?

Some thoughts about planning; I wrote a book about it.  After putting together an overall concept of what an operation will be about (a first draft dealing with the questions, who, what, when, where, why and how) there needs to be a moment when the boss gathers his planners together and asks the question, what are the keys to success?  Or, stated another way, what can cause this to fail?  It is not a long list, maybe two or three inviolable issues.  In this circumstance a hand would have gone up and a bright guy or gal would have said; the last person on the last aircraft out of Afghanistan must be departing from Bagram Air Base.  We own it, we have secured it since we got there, it has two long runways and we can safely handle thousands of evacuees.  Everyone agreed.

Second hand goes up; every US civilian in country needs to have a preplanned evac plan that includes, means of transport, route and destination.  Then we preplan to secure those routes. The boss says; absolutely, coordinate with the State Department and make it happen.

And so it goes; it is not rocket science, but it is the one commodity seemingly missing in Washington today, common sense.

A second comment on planning.  The military lives by this thought, “no plan survives contact with the enemy.”  The military mindset is that no plan is perfect and we need to think, way ahead of time, the answers to the questions, “what if….?”  It is called contingency planning.  Contingency planning is a parallel process that takes place before we execute.

Some example what-ifs: Since the president directed the withdrawal to commence during the Taliban fighting season, we would ask, what if they roll up control of the country faster than expected?  What if the Taliban make a move to control all the major routes of egress?  What if we have to prematurely evac the US embassy and lose their in-country knowledge and support? What if the Afghanistan National Army is unable or unwilling to stand against the Taliban offensive? What if the Afghan government folds up early?

Of course, many of you are saying right now, well that’s easy Monday-morning-quarterbacking.  Reality is that our military leaders are trained to think worse-case-scenario and put it into a contingency plan because their lives may depend on it.  With a proper planning process, they would have thought of these obvious what-ifs and probably a lot more. 

There is zero indication that any of our leaders in Washington did anything like this.  Instead, what we are getting is finger pointing at the intel community, and statement like, “no one expected the country to fall in 11 days.” 

Was there sufficient time to do proper planning?  Of course, there was a ridiculous amount of time available.  Planning should have begun 18 months ago on 29 February, 2020, when the US and Taliban signed an agreement that set the terms for a US withdrawal from Afghanistan by May 1, 2021.  Then, on 14 April, 2021 when President Biden announced plans to pull all US Military forces from Afghanistan by 9/11, 2021, all the fine-tuning and rehearsals should have begun.  Words that come to mind:  Dereliction of duty.  High crimes and misdemeanors. Relief for cause.

The United States in two short weeks just forfeited its global leadership role and the consequences will, in all probability, be catastrophic.  We could experience global open season on cyberattacks against the US; oil embargo; emboldened Putin moves on the Ukraine, Belarus, the Middle East; Russia supports Iranian hegemony in the Middle East; Russia no longer fears NATO retaliation; China invades Taiwan; China controls shipping in the South China Sea; Russia and China collusion to insure the US is cut out of initiatives in the Artic; Afghanistan terrorism, supported by Iran, regains pre-9/11 terrorist training/planning; terrorist flooding into the US across the southern border.  For all practical purposes NATO becomes a paper tiger; North Korea ramps up missile testing; Iran fields a nuclear weapon; etc. etc. etc. 

Why could some or all of this become a reality?  Plain and simple failure by the US to lead. We have been disgraced, humiliated and placed in mortal danger by this leaderless administration.  Our friends no longer respect us and our enemies no longer fear retaliation.   

Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO EXECUTION, a book for leaders, a columnist for THE PILOT, a national award-winning local newspaper in Southern Pines, NC and the author of a blog, WeThePeopleSpeaking.com.

As I write this the US has become diplomatically and militarily disengaged from Afghanistan. The pundits are already saying, “we lost another war.”  Did we? 

The 9/11 attack was a wake-up call for America.  Up to that point no one wanted to say the words, “global war on terrorism”.  But there it was, an enemy we could not defeat at our borders; we needed to take the fight overseas.

We had to go after their leaders and planners. We had to interdict their training areas. We had to restrict their movements and cut off their finances.  

Many of the tentacles of the 9/11 attack lead back to Afghanistan to Osama bin-Laden, al Qaeda, and the training and planning areas supported by the Taliban. Enter the US military with a specific mission; reduce the likelihood that terrorists could/would attack the US again killing thousands more.

 Has the military accomplished that mission?  Yes, they have and in the process of fighting that “war” many service members came home in a flag-draped coffin or with life-changing mental and physical damages.  The question will always be asked, was it worth it?  That is a rhetorical question because we will never know the answer to the question, what would the terrorists have done to us if we had not gone on the offensive? 

So, if we accomplished the mission, why are we leaving such a mess in Afghanistan? Fair question.  

First, when we arrived in Afghanistan there was no standing military force to be defeated; we could have accomplished that in days.  The enemy was the men tending to their livestock or working in the fields during the day and at night they were building bombs and mining roads and trails. There was no clear picture as to what to blow up and who to kill.

Secondly, when we arrived, we found a country little changed over perhaps hundreds of years. We found a culture of religious fanatics who treated all females like pieces of property. We found a Muslim nation with a deep-seated belief that it was their sacred duty to be part of a world-wide holy war; the Jihad.

Given that set of circumstances the US did what it has historically done; morphed the mission into nation-building. We set out to build schools, medical facilities, a free democratic government, freedom of expression and a military sufficient to challenge the Taliban.

Has it worked?  Not very well.  Why?  We have for years battled against a deep-seated culture. For example, government outreach and central control is an anathema to a people that are a multiethnic and mostly tribal society.   Their first allegiance is to their tribal leaders.

We took it upon ourselves to challenge their culture, their way of life. Women there will still be subjected to Sharia law and its gruesome consequences with thousands of cases where women are physically tortured, beaten, mutilated, burned alive, forced to marry at a very early age, raped or sold into prostitution.

Afghanistan is a corrupt nation at every level and in all their dealings to the point that corruption is culturally acceptable.   Could we change all that in 20 years?

Change of subject, how could the US withdrawal have been handled differently and perhaps more successfully?  First, why announce it to the world with an end date of 9/11 as if it will be a celebratory event?  Given the announcement the Taliban quite naturally dusted off their nation-wide take-over plan.

The summer is the fighting season for the Taliban, when their ability to conduct operations is at its highest level.  The drawdown should have been done in the winter without an announcement.

A different scenario might have looked like this: When men and equipment began to be moved out of an area, the Taliban would immediately take notice and put together a quick operation to retake the area.  When the Taliban showed up, we could have initiated a pre-planned counter offensive and slammed the invaders with everything we have and ensured the Afghan military was a big part of the operation.  Create a morale-boosting win for the Afghanistan troops.  Create confidence in the minds of locals that they can be protected. Create a belief in the minds of the Taliban that retaking the country will be difficult and costly. 

Did we lose the war?  We accomplished the military mission.  Were we there too long?  Maybe not long enough if Afghanistan again becomes an Iran-financed exporter of terrorist activities targeting the US.  Did we leave them an adequate military force to counter the Taliban?  We know how to do a superior job of training but we can’t make them want to fight.

Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO EXECUTION, a book for leaders and the author of a blog, WeThePeopleSpeaking.com

If you stood on a street corner handing out dollar bills, one dollar every second, you would have to stand there 12,600 years to dispense 400 billion dollars. “A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you’re talking about real money” is famously attributed to Senator Everett Dirksen in the 1960s. Times have certainly changed, now politicians throw around trillion-dollar figures like it is of little consequence.  I will get back to the $400 billion story shortly.

Since the Biden inauguration we have been deluged with progressive plans:  The American Rescue Plan, The American Family Plan, The American Jobs Plan.  Good public relations titles but what do they mean and where are they taking us?

THE AMERICAN RESCUE PLAN, $1.9 trillion, over 600 pages:  The Biden administration led us to believe it was to stimulate the economy, fight COVID-19 and help those most in need.  Keep in mind that this was the third act by Congress to address pandemic issues.  The CARES Act, March 2020 authorized $2 trillion to do deal with COVID-19 relief.  And in December 2020 Congress added another $833 billion.

Why the March 2021 American Rescue Plan?  The US economy was not in recession, unemployment had fallen to 6.2%. There was no economic crisis to alleviate and only about 75% of the previous $2.8 trillion COVID relief had been spent.  It is estimated that 95% of the March 2021 “relief” package will actually be spent after 2021, after the economy has recovered and after unemployment drops further.  And, as we have discovered, the “relief” in terms of increased unemployment benefits has become a plague to small businesses who are again open for business but cannot find enough workers. 

One example of questionable “rescue” in The American Rescue Plan is child tax credit rescue.  $3,600 for each child under age 6; for each child ages 6 to 16, it’s increased from $2,000 to $3,000. It also makes 17-year-olds eligible for the $3,000 credit. This includes families making $150,000 per year.  This is not a “safety net” for the poor, it is designed to pull the middle class into a dependency mind-set for government handouts.

What we now know is the American Rescue Plan was just the beginning of a colossal spending spree by the Biden Administration and the Democrat -controlled Congress.   

AMERICAN FAMILIES PLAN, $1.8 trillion dollars:  Generally, it includes four new programs:  1) Two years of free pre-kindergarten; 2) Virtually free child care for everyone; 3) Paid family and medical leave; 4) Two years of free community college.  Three comments:

First of all, they are not “free”. Second, President Biden’s sales pitch is that, “they will create jobs and growth”.  How?  Third, the defining word never used by the proponents is “entitlements” but that is what they are or will become. Entitlements can be a scourge on the nation forever.

• Entitlements always start small but rapidly grow.  Medicaid was once a safety-net program but now, for example, covers 37% of Californians. Medicare started as a program for seniors; democrats now want to cover everyone over age 55 while the socialists want Medicare for all.  Social security benefits have steadily increased since the program began in 1935. Food stamps and nutrition programs started as help for the poor, now cover tens of millions.

• In 2019 entitlements consumed 56% of the federal budget. The Congressional Budget Office tells us spending on the three big entitlements, Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, is growing unchecked on autopilot. By 2028, spending on these programs will claim over 73 percent of all federal revenues. These programs are simply unsustainable in their current form and the new entitlements in President Biden’s expanded welfare-state will exacerbate the whole entitlement issue.  

• Another downside is that the growth of entitlements will, without fail, negatively impact financing for national security issues such as military readiness. For example, at the end of the Obama/Biden administrations the US Army had exactly one “fully combat ready” brigade and 50% of Air Force and Navy combat aircraft could not get off the ground.

• Entitlement reform is a recurring Congressional idea but it just never happens.

THE AMERICAN JOBS PLAN, aka the Infrastructure Bill, $2.3 trillion, from a 12,000-page White House fact sheet:   The Biden administration says the plan, “….is a historic investment that will create millions of good jobs, rebuild our country’s infrastructure, and position the United States to out-compete China”. 

Infrastructure as many people think of it (construction or improvement of bridges, highways, roads, ports, waterways, and airports) accounts for only about $157 billion, or 7%, of the plan’s estimated cost. So, what is the other 93%? Here are some examples.

$400 billion to solidify community-based care for aging and disabled Americans. Please go back to the opening paragraph to get reacquainted with what $400 billion dollars represents. My purpose here is not to debate the merits or deficiencies of the proposed program but rather to point out that a US commitment to spend $400 billion should not be buried inside an infrastructure or any other bill.  Where is the committees’ reports on this?  Where is the input from experts testifying before those committees?  Is there any national debate or polling on the issue? What are the reasons for not having this as a stand-alone bill? Have those voting on the bill even read it?  What the hell has happened to the legislative process? 

$300 billion would give targeted aid to manufacturers and small businesses across industries, regardless of any infrastructure connection. Ditto the questions in the previous paragraph. 

$180 billion for public investment in technology and research and development including $50 billion for the National Science Foundation to establish a “technology directorate”.  This is not about infrastructure.  Again, if worthy, write a stand-alone bill and debate it.

Additionally, the fact sheet says the plan “tackles inequities based on gender,” though it doesn’t say how. 

An added note on the Jobs Plan, aka the Infrastructure Bill, $2.3 trillion:  The infrastructure plan in the Senate has, for some time, been undergoing bipartisan negotiations; meaning Republican Senators are insisting the Democrats strip out various tax and spending proposals that have nothing to do with “infrastructure”.  While the Democrats are agreeing to some of the Republican demands, the issues being weeded out are being stuffed into the Democrat’s follow-on $3.5 trillion dollar budget reconciliation bill. That turn of events is what has prompted Speaker Pelosi to insist that the House will not vote on an Infrastructure Bill until the $3.5 Budget Reconciliation Bill has also passed the Senate.  The Democrats want it all and have figured out how to make it happen. 

THE $3.5 BUDGET RECONCILIATION BILL:  As if all of the above is not a disaster in the making, President Biden and Congressional Democrats have come to an agreement on an additional $3.5 trillion budget package. They are calling it the “Human Infrastructure” budget proposal.

If passed it would be the largest budget in US history. The broad provisions address climate change and expanded Medicare.  Included would be federally-funded child care, home care, housing investments as well as a $120 billion “pathway to citizenship for the millions of illegal immigrants”; aka amnesty.  One hundred and twenty billion dollars!!

Amnesty for illegal immigrants has the potential to become the largest domestic disaster in our history.  The signal amnesty would send around the world would unleash a stampede of millions to US borders. Amnesty would set a precedent and precedent is a powerful force that once put in place cannot be erased in the minds of those planning to be physically in the US and in line for the second round of amnesty. 

Included in the $3.5 trillion package would be an unleashing of major elements of the Green New Deal. These initiatives would likely ravage the existing fossil fuels industry prematurely and, experts believe, result in severe power shortages across America. 

The Democrats expect to get the $3.5 trillion package through Congress by using a back-door provision.  That is, rather than try to get 60 votes in the Senate this bill will be processed as “budget reconciliation”. As opposed to needing 60 votes reconciliation bills need only a simple majority. This bill is expected to pass the House by a party majority and the Senate with the Vice President breaking the 50-50 party tie.

WHERE ARE THE RESCUE PLAN, FAMILY PLAN, JOBS PLAN AND THE 3.5 TRILLION DOLLAR PLAN TAKING US AND WHAT ARE THE CONSEQUENCES?

• This array of Democrat proposals represents the largest re-working of the American economy and federal funding since FDR’s New Deal. 

• This incomprehensible amount of money must come from somewhere and that is from American taxpayers.  But “soaking the rich”, increased capital gains tax, increased corporate taxes, wealth taxes, death taxes and ultimately taxing the middle-class etc. are not without downsides for the country.  The current inflation spike is driving up every-day costs for all Americans and is considered by many economists to be a direct result of this reckless spending.

• All of the thousands of individual programs in these legislative actions will automatically require thousands of pages of new government regulations which will in turn require thousands of bureaucrats in new and/or larger government departments and agencies.

• “Government mandated” will become the everyday bi-line for Americans with out-of-control regulatory restrictions and unfathomable bureaucratic oversight for everyone, every day.  Initiative, innovation and the American dream has guided us to the top of the world in terms of opportunity, standard of living, freedom and justice.  All of that is in jeopardy with big-government becoming out-of-control bigger.

• In a welfare-state, disincentivized upward mobility and equity become the norm, displacing the freedom to be all you can be.

• Americans will find themselves, at every stage in their lives, passing from one set of government controls to another.  

• The Congressional Budget Office has pointed out that federal investment is grossly inefficient. It produces half the return of private sector investment and it reduces state and local government investment that otherwise would come into play

• In 2019, pre-pandemic median household income grew 6.8% with higher increases among blacks, Hispanics, Asians and women. Unemployment for these classes hit historic lows. The Democrat’s socialist economic growth-inhibitor agenda will kill all of that momentum.

• The pandemic has provided new insights into Americans, one of the most revealing is that a government check can disincentivize millions from going back to work.

• “Tax and spend” was the baseline for the Obama/Biden administration for eight years and it was an economic disaster. When the economy is over-regulated, over-supervised and over-taxed there will always be very limited GDP growth.  When the economy grows everyone wins.  In 2017 taxes were cut, deregulation was set in motion, the economy grew, wages went up, family income went up, unemployment hit historic lows for minorities and women.  This resulted in the greatest federal revenue in history in 2019.  Growth, not increased taxation is the path to success. 

Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO EXECUTION, a book for leaders, a columnist for THE PILOT, a national award-winning local newspaper in Southern Pines, NC and the author of a blog, WeThePeopleSpeaking.com.

THE FUTURE IS NOW AND ITS UGLY

By about 4 p.m. on 20 January 2021, President Biden signed an Executive Order that threw the oil and gas industry into turmoil.   In part it was a 60-day suspension of new oil and gas leasing and drilling permits for U.S. lands and waters. This served two purposes for the new administration; first it was an obvious gotcha to reverse Trump policies on energy. Secondly, it was a gift to the environmentalists and climate-change advocates.

BACKGROUND:  Throughout much of its history, the United States has imported more petroleum than it has exported. A report, February, 2021 by The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) tells us that, “2020 marked the first year that the United States exported more petroleum than it imported on an annual basis. Unfortunately, thanks to President Biden, EIA expects the United States to return to being a net petroleum importer on an annual basis in 2021.”

Was this immediate knee-jerk policy well thought out?  Had there been any debate in Congress?  Did President Biden or his handlers know, on the afternoon of 20 January, what the US public reaction would be? No. 

What it ended up to be is Bidens first new “tax” (a rose by any other name…..) and it has negatively impacted every single American.  In six months, crude oil prices are up 54% and the price for gasoline at the pump has skyrocketed.  Additionally, transportation costs for every single product we buy has gone up because, at some point, every single product comes out of the back of a gas/diesel guzzling truck.  Result, higher prices for everything for everyone. 

But beyond US gasoline prices, the unanticipated consequences are more far-reaching with huge national security implications.

THE US STANDING IN THE WORLD OF OIL:  It has taken the US about 50 years to overcome our dependency on foreign oil.  For the leading nation in the fee world, “dependency” is not a good place to be. It reduces or negates leverage that we need in dealing with other countries and regions. Here is a prime example of what can happen when we are dependent on others to supply us with petroleum.   

OIL EMBARGO:  Many of you will not remember the 1973 oil embargo.  There was a nation-wide gasoline shortage, long lines at the pump, lots of inconvenience but beyond that, the geopolitical implications were huge.   

During the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, Arab members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) imposed an embargo against the United States in retaliation for the U.S. decision to re-supply the Israeli military and to gain leverage in the post-Arab-Israeli war peace negotiations.

The price of oil per barrel first doubled, then quadrupled, imposing skyrocketing costs on consumers around the world.

 U.S. allies in Europe and Japan had stockpiled oil supplies, and thereby secured for themselves at least a short-term cushion. These circumstances precipitated a rift within the Atlantic Alliance. European nations and Japan found themselves in the uncomfortable position of needing U.S. assistance to secure energy sources, even as they sought to disassociate themselves from US Middle East policy. 

In response to these developments, on November 7, 1973 the Nixon administration announced Project Independence to promote domestic energy independence. It has taken us about 50 years to get there. Forecasters expect US net imports of crude oil to increase from its 2020 average of 2.7 million barrels per day (b/d) to 3.7 million b/d in 2021 and 4.4 million b/d in 2022.”

OIL AND GEOPOLITICS:  That short history lesson brings us back to today’s geopolitical situation.  Iran is the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism.  The Iranian Supreme Leader has for years declared openly that it is Iran’s duty to destroy America and Israel. Iran is our enemy. 

After the Obama/Biden 2015 Iran Peace Treaty was in place, Iran’s GDP grew 12.3%, much of that growth was attributed to the oil and gas industry.  Iran’s support to global terrorist groups was at an all-time high, spending as much as $700 million per year to support global terrorism.

US sanctions on Iran, imposed by President Trump in 2018, caused Iran’s GDP to drop by 4.8% in 2018 and 9.5% in 209 according to the International Monetary Fund. Additionally, the IMF estimated that inflation soared to 30.5% in 2018 and 35.7% in 2019. Iran was crippled economically as were their contributions to terrorists.

President Biden has returned to the bargaining table with Iran. Iran’s leaders have already taken advantage of a less hostile climate, reviving petroleum sales, increasing production almost 20% in 2020 to 2.4 million barrels a day in April, up by 1,30,000 barrels per day from March. Iran could increase production to almost 4 million barrels a day in three to six months.

When President Trump cancelled the Obama/Biden deal with Iran, senior Iranian officials admitted that after signing the US/Iran deal they never ceased operations to produce a nuclear weapon. But Biden is so committed to reviving the deal as part of his anti-Trump agenda that in recent weeks, during six meetings with Iranian negotiators, the US has already indicated they will lift sanctions in return for “nuclear compliance”. What nuclear compliance? Iran has admitted being capable of having a bomb within six months; which probably means they already have one.  Decreased sanctions will only lead to a stronger and more aggressive Iran, increased global terrorism and a more destabilized Middle East.  There is an old saying, “if you want a deal bad enough, that’s what you will get, a bad deal.”

One additional note on Iran’s nuclear weapons:  Iran will probably never admit that they have a nuclear weapon because Israel has repeatedly vowed to do everything possible to destroy it.  Furthermore, if Israel did launch a first-strike that would provide Iran an excuse to attack Israel.  All of this is very destabilizing for the Middle East region.   

Note to President Biden: oil isn’t just about leases on US public land and pandering to your environmentalist base; it is a global issue and our soon-to-be dependency puts the US at an enormous disadvantage and, by extension, at greater risk.   

IRAN/AFGHANISTAN CONNECTION:  We can foresee a whole new set of problems emerging.

The Taliban have been sweeping through Afghanistan as the US and other forces pull out of the country and Afghan security forces surrender or flee.  Additionally, within the past few days, the Taliban secured the main border crossing into Iran.

Just a few weeks ago, published estimates were that the Taliban might be in control of the capital, Kabul, within three years.  Reality is, Kabul, a city of at least six million people, is already falling.  The Taliban have blown up the power infrastructure, there are serious issues with the water supply and the city is being overrun with refugees from adjoining provinces; a humanitarian disaster in the making.  

In spite of being the most benevolent nation on earth for the past century, there is no shortage of enemies that want to take us down.  I believe there are four enemies at the top of the list.  Iran, as pointed out above, North Korea, Russia and China.

IRAN/AFGHANISTAN POTENTIAL:  Given the gravity of the overall situation in that region, one could build a credible argument that Afghanistan, with Iran’s direction and support, could once again become a safe haven for terrorists and terrorist training thereby ratcheting up the global war on terror with a particular focus on taking down the United States. 

NORTH KOREA:  Their foreign minister, speaking before the United Nations General Assembly, September 2017, warned that a strike against the US mainland is “inevitable”. This from a rogue nation which has, for many years, been starving its people in order to spend whatever it takes to develop a nuclear weapon, an intercontinental ballistic missile to carry it and/or a submarine capable of launching a short-range missile on an unsuspecting enemy.

North Korea is estimated to have approximately 30-40 nuclear weapons plus a significant quantity of chemical and biological weapons. Are they capable of attacking the US?  Yes, but why would they?  What greater bragging rights could “The Great Leader” Kim Jong-Un garner than having taken down the great and powerful United States?  Reason enough?  Enough to worry about and do something about it as President Trump did in 2018.

Kim Jong-Un threatened America in the UN speech and President Trump went on the offensive, setting up a one-on-one meeting with Kim in Singapore.  Imagine the private conversation they must have had concerning the “inevitable” NK strike against the US. It might have gone something like this as President Trump handed Kim a close-up, clear, 8-10 photo of Kim on his big white stallion riding at his sea-side retreat: “Kim, we know where you are 24/7 and can reach out to you on a moment’s notice.  Just thought you should know.”

Delivery of those weapons is North Korea’s main problem.   President Trump confronted Kim personally and conveyed a strong message that missile testing is a bad idea.  Now, after only 4 ½ months into the Biden Administration North Korea is at it again. On 4 May, they fired a new type of solid-fuel short range ballistic missile and tested two separate multiple rocket launch systems. Biden’s reaction, “We will respond if North Korea escalates.”  Well, Mr. Biden, renewed missile testing is escalation!

RUSSIA:  The US has been Russia’s nemesis for the past 75 years; we engaged them in a Cold War for about 50 of those years at tremendous expense to the US.  Putin would like nothing better that to see the US fall. 

Putin and his crowd probably at least had knowledge of the pipeline cyberattack in May, 2021.  Whatever the case it was an excellent trial balloon with no ramifications. Proof of concept.

At their meeting in June, President Biden handed Putin a list of 16 critical infrastructure targets that, “should be off-limits to attack, period, by cyber or any other means.”  When the world is becoming more and more concerned about cyber warfare, should Biden be so naïve that he believes Putin is above using that highly prioritized list to take down our country?

Oil and gas are responsible for more than 60% of Russia’s exports and provide more than 30% of the country’s GDP.  Following a lean 2020, Russia is having a resurgence of oil and gas prices. With that comes power and influence, especially over European nations, our allies, who are currently suffering from a shortage of natural gas supplies. 

CHINA:  they are on track with a long-range strategic plan to rule the world and in the process, significantly reduce US global influence. 

During what was to have been a simple meet-and-greet meeting, 18 March 2021, between our new Secretary of State Blinken and National Security Advisor Sullivan with top-ranking Chinese diplomats, a former Chinese ambassador to the US, in a 15-minute speech, publicly dressed down the US charging hypocrisy on human rights and its treatment of minorities, criticized U.S. foreign interventions, and accused U.S. officials of possessing a “cold war mentality. This was a dramatic shift in demeanor by the Chinese towards America. Why did it happen?  Here is one theory. 

Vengeful and dangerous. During a visit to China in 2016 to attend a G20 meeting, the Chinese had literally rolled out the red carpet for G20 heads of state who had already arrived.  When President Obama arrived on Air Force One, the Chinese refused to provide a staircase to deplane.  Obama, lacked the fortitude to crank his aircraft and depart immediately; so, he disembarked through an emergency exit in the plane’s belly.  When Obama finally met the Chinese delegation on the tarmac there was a harsh verbal exchange during which one official was caught on video shouting, “This is our country! This is our airport!”.  

Why the snub?  This was Obama’s eighth, and last, meeting with the Chinese president.  During those meetings, Obama was prone to “lecture” Xi Jinping about China’s human rights or the lack thereof.  The Chinese leaders are vengeful and dangerous with long memories. They will give you a big smile and a small bow while simultaneously stabbing you in the back.  So, in my opinion, in March of this year during the first formal interaction with the Biden Administration, the Chinese took the initiative and turned the tables on our Secretary of State on the subject of human rights. Live and learn.  

China has a grand plan for Taiwan in particular and the South China Sea in general.  Thirty-three years ago, when I was the deputy policy guy for the Pacific Region, China was building shacks on stilts in the shallow waters along Fiery Cross Reef in the South China Sea, planting the Chinese flag on them and claiming it was China’s territory.  Today that built-up “reef” is one square mile in size and home to a military base with a 10,000-foot airstrip and a missile defense system.  There are also five other military bases in the South China Sea built on similar built-up reefs.

Why is China interested in the South China Sea?  It has an estimated 11 billion barrels of oil, 190 trillion feet of natural gas and 50 percent of all the fishing vessels globally. Thirty percent of the world’s shipping trade, about $4 trillion worth, flows through, as China claims, Chinese territorial waters.  Availability of “local” oil and gas could become the solution to China’s Achilles heel.   

For decades China has wanted to reclaim Taiwan and rid itself of the embarrassment of the flourishing democratic independent Chinese nation next-door.  They now have a navy capable of challenging the US and acquiring Taiwan (as they have Hong Kong) will solidify their efforts over the past 30 years to develop the South China Sea.  Now could be the time when China will force a confrontation with US Naval forces in the Western Pacific and bring to the forefront the question that has been hanging out there for the last 30 years, is the US willing to go to war to protect Taiwan?

THE THREAT/ VULNERABILITIES:  None of these four enemies have the capability to launch conventional forces, land or air, to defeat us.  Having said that, I believe this nation is more vulnerable today than perhaps at any time since the Revolutionary War, 1775-1783. 

CYBERATTACK by individuals, foreign organizations or by enemy nations is becoming too commonplace.  The recent cyberattack on the Colonial Pipeline, one of the US’ largest pipelines and shutting it down for five days in May, 2021 demonstrated how quickly our economy can be negatively impacted. US intel sources believe the strike emanated from inside Russia.

POWER GRID: Frequently we hear talk about the vulnerability of our power grid. There are thirty substations in the U.S. that play a critical role in the nation’s electric grid operations. A Federal Energy Regulatory Commission report says, “Destroy nine interconnection substations and the entire United States grid could be down for at least 18 months, probably longer,” Experts say such an attack would be “irrecoverable.”  For example, how do we pump water to 330 million people every day without electricity?  Tens of millions would die. What nations are probably capable of doing this? The answer is China, Russia, North Korea and Iran.

EMP: Perhaps the most devastating attack could come in the form of EMP, electromagnetic pulse. That is, a huge burst of electromagnetic energy from a nuclear explosion high in the atmosphere over the US on a scale that could destroy any electronics that it comes in contact with. It would instantly shutdown all transportation, computers, networks, electronic equipment, medical and communication systems.  There would be no timely resupply of anything. 

Within two days all food, bottled water, guns, ammunition and hand tools will have been looted.  Millions of people in the targeted region would find themselves in a 1700’s environment. Currency would be worthless. There would be no law and order. A state of anarchy would exist everywhere.  Within days millions would be dying every day, first simply from lack of water and later for a whole array of reasons.  What nations are probably capable of doing this?  China, Russia, North Korea and in the near future, probably Iran.

A Taepo Dong-2 missile launched from North Korea could deliver and detonate a warhead 300 km above the US.  It could set up a devastating electrical field over nearly all of the United States.

For a more thorough understanding of the impact of EMP, read One Second After by William Forstchen with a forward by Newt Gingrich. 

Will these catastrophic events happen?  Hopefully not but can they happen?  Yes.

VULNERABILITY:  There was not a general sense of vulnerability during WW I or WW II or Korea or VN or even the last twenty years but now I believe we are more vulnerable than ever in our history.  It will not be China hordes attacking over the California beaches.  It will not be that obvious; we won’t see it coming and it could be tomorrow.  Trump was brash, unpredictable and rubbed a lot of the world leaders the wrong way but friend and foe knew he was up to the task of protecting America, he would do what he said he would do, he could be counted on to attack and attack hard if threatened and our allies knew he would have their back.

For example, Obama/Biden ignored the growing ISIS threat in the Iraq/Syria region, calling it the “JV squad”.  By the time Trump took over ISIS had established their own country (califate), had put together a government of sorts, were collecting taxes and building a safe-haven to plan, train and finance terrorism against the US.  Trump immediately focused on the problem, put together the resources and destroyed ISIS and its califate within a few months.

What causes a nation to become vulnerable?  In a word, WEAKNESS; either real or perceived and sometimes perception is more dangerous than reality.

The US is the leading economy in the world with the best and most capable military that can deploy and strike anywhere at any time.  The question is, is that enough to keep China, Russia, Iran and North Korea at bay? Six months ago, I would have said yes with some slight reservations. Now my answer is no.  Our enemies are more emboldened than ever and our allies are beginning to have doubts about a lot of things going on in the US, and perhaps also doubts about our leaders.  The world watches and listens to everything we say and do.  We are constantly under the microscope, being analyzed and sending signals.

SIGNALS:  What signals are we sending, not just to China, Russia, North Korea and Iran, but the remainder of the world? Here is a sampling:

1. A nation that refuses to secure its borders is not acting like a world leader. Can a nation that accepts the fact that criminals, terrorists, MS 13 gang members, drug dealers and human traffickers are illegally coming into its society be respected? The number of illegal immigrants in the last six months is unprecedented; over one million that we know about.
2. Renewed foreign oil dependency provides other nations leverage against the US every day and it was caused by a Biden administration politically motivated self-inflicted wound.  Can we expect our allies to understand that?

3. Houthi, a terrorist organization controlling Yemen, is supported by Iran, fires Iranian-made rockets into Saudi Arabia disrupting oil refining and is a destabilizing force in the Middle East.  The Biden administration has formally notified Congress that it will remove Yemen’s Houthi rebels from our list of terrorist organizations.  How serious do our allies believe we are with respect to the war on global terrorism? 

4. What did not go unnoticed by our allies was the weeks-long absence of any contact or mention of our decades-old relationship with Israel by the new Biden administration. 

5.Who is in charge?  That is the key question being asked by our friends and enemies around the world.  Who speaks for America? Who is writing the script for Biden’s teleprompter? Until six months ago there was no question about who was running the show in the US.  

6. The world listened to President Biden, saying in his inauguration address that he would be the uniter of all Americans and reassure our allies that “America is back”.  But have his actions conveyed the same message? World leaders were soon listening to Biden explain that the US has been and remains systemically racist.  Systemically: “In a manner that affects the entire system.” Is that what we want the world to believe about the greatest nation on earth?  

Biden goes on to tell us that internal white supremacist terrorism is the deadliest threat to the United States and our democracy.  And who are the white supremacists?  Senior Democrat leaders defines them and anyone who was or is a Trump supporter; all 70 million of us?  Is that rational? Is any of that an intelligent deduction?  I think not.  To add insult to this discussion, the Biden administration is pushing for indoctrination of every school child to make them believe that in the US each of us exists in one of two groups, the oppressed or the oppressor.  That is supposed to unify our nation?  That is what we want the world to believe?

And Biden’s new cabinet has chimed in: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin called for a worldwide “stand down” of the U.S. military in April to focus on extremism in the ranks.  Attorney General Merrick Garland declares that white supremacy is the greatest threat to our country today. Secretary of State, Antony Blinken asked the United Nations to investigate racism in the United States. Why? What good will it do except give our enemies fodder to criticize us.  Who will make the assessment, UN members from China or Russia or Iran or North Korea?  What is this administration thinking? 

7. After decades of working “peace negotiations” in the Middle East, the Trump Administration finally hit on a successful formula.  That is, convince the leaders of Arab nations that Israel is not their enemy and that Iran’s end-state is Middle East hegemony.  From this initiative, a number of Arab nations reached out to Israel and normalized relations.

This is in contrast to the Obama/Biden/Kerry formula which is to make nice with the Palestinians in Gaza and have them share a state with Israel. That has always been a failed formula because the Palestinian government does not recognize Israel’s right to exist and Hamas is a terrorist group dedicated to Israel’s destruction. The Palestinian National Authority (the Gaza Strip government) has been Hamas since 2007.  Hamas is considered a terrorist organization by the US and the European Union and is supported by the governments of Syria and Iran. Hamas is the organization that fired over 4000 rockets into Israel in May, 2021.

The Biden administration will have nothing to do with the Trump peace plan simply because it is a Trump plan and they will in all likelihood return to the failed Kerry plan.  Our allies are as interested in Middle East peace as much as we and are completely baffled by Biden’s Middle East policies.   

8. World leaders have watched crime in America increase dramatically in 2021 and continue unabated. Our cities are being burned and looted like a third-world country.  Leaders the world over were immediately questioning some of Biden’s Executive Orders such as lifting the ban on travel from hostile Muslim nations and why stop building the wall on the southern border. Our loyal allies are asking, what is happening to the United States? 

WHY ARE WE VULNERABLE?  There are three good reasons; emboldened enemies, confused allies and self-inflicted wounds.  And in just the past six months the needle has moved considerably in a negative direction.

It was not my intent to produce an article with so much gloom and doom.  At the conclusion of President Biden’s inaugural address, most of us had a sense of calm and hopefulness concerning the state of our divided nation. But actions have spoken louder than words and within hours it became clear that President Biden’s foremost intent was to vengefully erase every Trumpism no matter how positive it might have been for the American people, for our allies and against our enemies.  The extent to which our vulnerability has ratcheted up in just the first six months of the Biden Administration is alarming and dangerous.  Where will it take us?

Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO EXECUTION, a book for leaders, a columnist for THE PILOT, a national award-winning local newspaper in Southern Pines, NC and the author of a blog, WeThePeopleSpeaking.com

THE FUTURE IS NOW AND ITS UGLY

In my 32 years of military service, I spent a lot of time in joint assignments but for this piece, let me limit my comments to the US Army, the service I know best. 

The Army always has been and always will be a product of America.  Those entering come from every background, every community and even some with questionable alliances with radical groups such as white supremacists; but they all have one thing in common, they volunteered and, like it or not, they are going to be brain-washed and indoctrinated.

Day one: At the end of that first day in the Army they all have the same hair style, that is, no hair, and they all are dressed alike.  There is a reason what soldiers wear is called a “uniform.”

Many will arrive with a chip on their shoulder based on their upbringing, education, talent, physical prowess etc.  But that “chip” gets knocked off very quickly by a drill instructor who has been especially selected and trained based on his or her abilities to “read” people and indoctrinate/train them.  It’s not a complex formula, just “tear them down and build them all over again.”

Day two: they begin to understand that their life in the Army will revolve around two concepts.  One is the mission and secondly, above all else, you are responsible for the person on you right and left.  Soon it begins to sink in that if I am responsible for those on my right and left, that means that they are also responsible for me.  One day it’s a white guy, perhaps the next day it’s a black gal.  Hmmm, “interesting concept”, they say to themselves, “someone always has my back, I’m not alone, this is my team.”

The mission.  Early on it is a training mission and later on it may be a combat mission.  Either way, mission is mission, it is the focus of the day and every soldier has a leader who will take me through it.  Trust, Respect. 

Background: there are 190 military occupational specialties (MOS) in your Army; infantry, artillery, aviation mechanic, medic, intel specialist, you get the picture.  Within your MOS, you will be faced with a task list.  It is a long list.  This is what you must learn, this is what you will do. Additionally, for every task there is a standard that must, without fail, be achieved.  The third factor is condition; day/night, wet/dry, rested/sleep deprived, fully-manned/short staffed, etc.  Task/Condition/Standard, the basis of all US Army training and execution. 

Do all soldiers end up with the same proficiency in their MOS task list? Yes and no. They will all be proficient but some to a greater degree because from day one it is emphasized that this is an organization where you are given the opportunity to be-all-you-can-be.  While be-all-you-can-be is individualized, you also understand you are first and foremost part of a team with primary responsibility for the guy or gal on you right and left.  Accountability.   

There is no organization in the world that is better at equal opportunity than the US Army. Period.  Be-all-you-can-be every day.  On day-one you were a private E1.  The cream raises to the top and you get promoted, Private First Class and eventually to Sergeant, E5.  Now you are a team leader. 

As a leader, in name and rank, your professional life takes a big turn.  You are now faced with a new, longer and move complex list of tasks.  It is called the collective task list and is less MOS-specific.  That is, the leader tasks for an infantry Sergeant are about like the leader tasks for a medic team leader. 

Becoming a leader in the Army is not a do-it-yourself operation.  You get training and mentoring.  The cream continues to rise, you get promoted to squad leader E6, then Sergeant First Class E7, the senior non-commissioned leader of a 30-person platoon.   E8 is a Master Sergeant/First Sergeant of a 100-person company. 

The cream of the be-all-you-can-be, equal opportunity crop will become a Sergeant Major E9 of a battalion, then perhaps a brigade, a division (10-15 thousand soldiers), a corps, an Army and there is always one super star, currently Michael Grinston, who is Command Sergeant Major of the whole US Army, 1,005,500 men and women active, National Guard and Army Reserve. Be-all-you-can-be. 

Along the way, whether serving 2 years or 32 years, all of these soldiers, through the above-described process, became imprinted deep in their souls with a culture of accountability, respect and trust.  In all situations, day-in-and-day-out, soldiers know they will be held accountable for their own actions as well as those of the unit they lead.  From day one they learned to respect and trust the soldiers on their right and left as well as their leaders. 

Culture is a powerful and pervasive force in every organization, be it just a team or a cast of thousands or a million-person Army.  When every person understands the culture and lives it every day, that is a winning organization.

With that tutorial, let’s get to the issue at hand, extremists in the ranks of the US Army, more specifically racists and white supremacists.  This did not seem to be a public issue until the events at the Capitol on 6 January of this year. 

Then some idiot politicians got behind a microphone and descided the Army National Guard protecting the Capitol and the politicians inside needed to be “vetted.”

Rep. Steve Cohen, D-Tennessee: “You’ve got to figure that in the Guard, which is predominantly more conservative… there are probably not more than 25 percent of the people that are there protecting us who voted for Biden,” Cohen said. “The other 75 percent are in the class, the large class of folks, who might want to do something.” Translation, you voted for Trump, you are likely a racist and/or white supremacist and must be weeded out.  Brilliant.

Not to be outdone the D.C. Mayor, Muriel Bowser, felt the need to inform us that, “When you have Guardsmen and women coming from all over the nation at this time, I do think that it is prudent to make sure that they are being vetted and that anybody who cannot pledge allegiance to their missions, and may be pulled by other views, needs not only to be removed from this duty, they need to be removed from the Guard.”

Connecticut Democrat Richard Blumenthal wanted us to know that as much as ten percent of the U.S. military is compromised of racists or extremists.  

Then in early February retired General Lloyd Austin, the quintessential product of a be-all-you-can-be, equal opportunity, merit-based organization, is President Biden’s pick to be Secretary of Defense.   He put on a suit, went to his confirmation hearing and testified that he would, “work to rid racists and extremists from the ranks of the U.S. military.”

Later he informed us that, “The job of the Department of Defense is to keep America safe from our enemies, but we can’t do it if some of the enemies lie within our own ranks,”

Sec Def Austin announced a 60-day “stand down” and ordered military leaders to have, “needed discussions with the men and women of the force in an effort to weed out extremism in the ranks.”  Sec Def Austin later went on to say, “We shall adhere to our core beliefs and values and reaffirm the oaths we each took to uphold and support the Constitution against all enemies foreign and domestic. My Point of Contact for these efforts is Mr. Bishop Garrison.”

Mr. Garrison, with a title of Senior Advisor to the Sec Def for Diversity and Inclusion is armed with a mandate from President Biden and a $40 million budget.  It is well documented that Garrison’s point-of-departure thinking is that if you are a Trump supporter that makes you a racist, misogynist and extremist.  You couldn’t make this stuff up. 

The Democrats in Washington are doing a great job of denigrating your great soldiers, of questioning their integrity, their competence and patriotism. But I don’t believe for a minute that the American public is buying into their nonsensical insults and misguided delusional thinking.  

Perhaps there is a little light at the end of the woke tunnel; to their credit, two four-star commanders, Admiral Charles Richard, head of the US Strategic Command and General James Dickinson, head of US Space Command testified before the House Armed Services Committee this week, stating that the risk of extremism in the ranks is virtually nonexistent and that their units are among the best, most professional in the world. How would you like to be a fly on the wall when Special Assistant Bishop Garrison shows up for an “office call” with those two brave souls?  Don’t bet the farm on the longevity of those two Generals. 

So, who are the extremists in the ranks?  Extremist defined: “A person who advocates or resorts to measures beyond the norm.”  Beyond the norm; I contend that there is nothing “normal” about your soldiers.  They are extremely well trained, extremely dedicated, extremely patriotic and extremely deadly when called on to execute what they have been trained to do; blow things up and kill bad guys.                      

Imagine this scenario: A squad is in contact with the enemy and you stop the action for a moment, put blinders on one of the soldiers and ask him this question:  Can you tell me the color of the skin of your fellow soldiers on your right and left?  The soldier would look at you like you were born on the back side of the moon and say (you fill in the blanks), “What the _ _ _ _ are you talking about?  Not only do I not know, I don’t give a _ _ _ _.  Only thing I know is they have my back; now get the _ _ _ _ out of my face, I’ve got to shoot some terrorists to protect your sorry ass.”

One of the great pleasures when being lucky enough to command soldiers is to meet most mornings for a few minutes with your Command Sergeant Major.  Here is an example of the conversations I envision going on throughout the chain of command.  Sgt Major: “The Sec Def told us to do what?  You can’t be serious.  What does he want me to do if I find an extremist, take him out and shoot him? What the hell is he thinking?”  Perhaps all that with some spicier words. 

The Sec Def will send down some radical left-wing flunky who, as the saying goes, “wouldn’t recognize a soldier if he had one standing on his chest”, he/she will give the canned speech to the soldiers.  But I’m convinced your soldiers are too good, too competent, too well trained, too patriotic and too encased in a culture of accountability, respect and trust to buy into all the divisive woke BS; especially after their Sergeant has a chat with them. 

EXTREMISTS IN THE MILITARY? GOD I HOPE SO.

Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO EXECUTION, a book for leaders, a columnist for THE PILOT, a national award-winning local newspaper in Southern Pines, NC and the author of a blog, WeThePeopleSpeaking.com