Background: In 1956, the leader of the Soviet Union, Nikita Khrushchev said of the U.S., “We will bury you.” It was not an idol comment as the USSR was gaining strength and successfully spreading socialism and communism around the world.
The intensity of the rhetoric built until 1962 when Khrushchev threatened to station nuclear weapons in Cuba, 90 miles from our shores, thereby bringing the world to the brink of nuclear holocaust. It was a tense standoff as the threat of nuclear war was on everyone’s mind until Khrushchev backed away.
In 1965, as the U.S. and USSR continued building arsenals of thousands of nuclear weapons, Secretary of Defense McNamara proposed that the guarantee of mutual annihilation could serve as an effective deterrent to both parties and that the goal of maintaining destructive parity should guide U.S. defense decisions. From that, the concept of Mutual Assured Destruction took hold. MAD is the notion that a nuclear attack by one superpower would be met with an overwhelming nuclear counterattack such that both attacker and defender would be annihilated. Deterrence for the next 25 years worked and the USSR dissolved in 1991.
There is great wisdom in the MAD concept. Could it work today in a different setting?
This week Putin gave the order for massive Russian forces to invade Ukraine. While doing so he also issued a warning to the world that interference in his, “Special military operation” would be met with, “Consequences never encountered in your history.” Make no mistake, he was figuratively pointing a finger directly at the U.S. and our proposed sanctions.
In May of 2021 it is believed the Russians conducted a proof-of-concept limited cyber-attack on the U.S. when they shut down the Colonial Pipeline and caused gas shortages for half the East Coast.
When President Biden met with Putin a month later, Biden brought up the cyberattack issue and presented Putin with a list of 16 critical infrastructure “entities” that must be “off-limits”
Fast forward to today and ask the question, are debilitating economic sanctions imposed by the U.S. considered “interference” in Putin’s invasion? Given Putin’s warning, “Consequences never encountered in your history,’ what should President Biden do? Given the gravity of the situation, doing nothing does not appear to be a viable option.
President Biden should pick up the phone, call Putin today and tell him the following:
President Putin, as I explained in our meeting last June, we are certain beyond a doubt that your people conducted the cyberattack on our pipeline the previous month. At that time, I provided you with a list of critical entities that are off-limits to cyber warfare. I am calling today to expand that list and inform you that any cyberattack on any entity is absolutely unacceptable.
My intelligence people have given me a clear picture of your offensive cyberwarfare capabilities and I want to assure you that our capabilities, in the event of a necessary counter attack, are significantly more sophisticated and can be delivered on a massive scale.
The leaders of the world believe your invasion of Ukraine is gross violation of international law and we collectively, are imposing sanctions as a penalty for your actions and to encourage you to cease operations immediately. Your warning to the world that, ‘Interference would be met with Consequences never encountered in your history’ is highly threatening rhetoric.
If a cyberattack occurs against the U.S. you are hereby informed that, unless another country or group takes credit for the actions, we will assume the attack came from you and our immediate and massive counter-attack will bring down your country.
Additionally, there are other countries that have publicly stated their desire to destroy us, namely Iraq and North Korea. If you have contact with those countries, I would advise you to make sure they do not conduct a cyberattack on the U.S. causing us, in the absence of knowing otherwise, to blame you for the incursion and launch our counterattack.
President Putin, make no mistake, this is not a threat; this is a promise. My number one priority as president of the Unites States is the safety and security of our people and I will take any actions against an aggressor to successfully fulfill my responsibilities in that regard. This subject is neither up for further discussion nor negotiation, consider yourself fully informed of my position and intent on this subject. End of phone conversation.
Why should President Biden have that discussion with Putin today? Because to just hope (hope is not a process) a cyberattack by this psycho won’t happen places the U.S. in an unacceptably high-risk status.
Does our military have a counter offensive cyber warfare capability? I assume so. If so, is it as sophisticated and massive as asserted above? I don’t know the answer and it doesn’t matter. Granted, creating a false narrative about our capability won’t make it real but it may instantaneously create a Cyber MAD scenario, which is the bottom line and critical at this point in time.
President Biden said in his Thursday address to the nation that we will “wait and see what happens” before considering additional sanctions. Mr. President, waiting and doing nothing at this juncture could be catastrophic.
Putin believes he has nothing to lose by attacking us as he is already viewed by the world as pariah and this will fulfill his life-long desire to punish his nemesis, the United States. Mr. President, making that phone call does not need consensus with our allies nor does it need Congressional wrangling. Executing the the phone call should be highly classified, limited access, need-to-know only for the VP, National Security Advisor, Sec Def and Sec State. You have everything to gain (save the nation) or everything to lose (the potential for a nation destroyed). It is a no-to-low-risk phone call, just make it happen.
Mr. president, here is one good reason to make the call. There are thirty substations in the U.S. that play a critical role in the nation’s electric grid operations. A Federal Energy Regulatory Commission report says, “Destroy nine interconnection substations and the entire United States grid could be down for at least 18 months, probably longer,” Experts say such an attack would be “irrecoverable.” How do we pump water to 330 million people every day without electricity? Tens of millions would die.
Mr. President, Mutually Assured Destruction is a proven concept. Implementation costs are five minutes of you time on the phone. MAD is a deterrent and deterrence is nothing more than creating fear in the mind of an adversary that a first strike option has unacceptable risk.
Note to readers: Some of you are probably capable of communicating directly with the president or VP or National Security Advisor or Sec Def or Sec State. If so, please advise them of this recommendation immediately. We have too much to lose.
Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO EXECUTION, a book for leaders, a columnist for THE PILOT, a national award-winning local newspaper in Southern Pines, NC and the author of a blog, WeThePeopleSpeaking.com.