WHAT DOES “PHASE TWO” MEAN?
For the sake of simplicity let’s just call the entire Trump initiative to end the war between Israel and Hammas and the release of all prisoners, Phase 1. What that amazing initiative has also accomplished is to open the door a crack to the possibility of what President Trump has referred to as, “Strong, Durable and Everlasting peace in the Middle East.”
President Trump must lead Campaign Phase Two because the world now recognizes that he is capable and also realize that, as usual, the United Nations is incapable of doing anything.
THE MIDDLE EAST IS STILL A POTENTIAL TINDERBOX. BACKGROUND AND FACTS BEARING ON THE PROBLEM.
- 1979: Since the Iranian Revolution in 1979, the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran has created a “proxy army” of more than a dozen militias and terror groups across the Middle East with outposts around the world to help foment instability, carry out attacks, and expand the scope of the Islamic Revolution. The most prominent are Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen and other Palestinian groups such as the Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine.
Generally, these terrorists’ organizations answer to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Cor3ps. Its special operations unit, the elite Quads Force, provides arms, training, and financial support to militias and political movements across the Middle East.
- 1984: Since 1984 Iran has been designated “the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism.” For four decades the Iranian leader has consistently articulated his twofold objectives; “destruction of Israel and “death to America”.
- 2017: The first Trump administration renewed UN sanctions on Iran and enforced them. Iran’s foreign currency reserves fell from $128 billion in 2015 to $15 billion in 2019. Iran’s capabilities and options were reduced and the U.S. was gaining ground in Middle East countries’ acceptance of Israel’s right to exist and prosper as a friendly neighbor. When Trump took office, he put the Houthi organization on the world terrorist list.
- 2021: Biden, immediately took the Houthis off the terrorist list for no reason other than to undo a Trump initiative For the Biden administration it was four years of appeasement towards Iran wherein Biden rewarded the Ayatollah to the tune of about $100 billion which presumably enhanced financing and weaponizing their proxy army terrorists.
- 2023-2025: In the first year of the Hamas invasion, they fired over 26,000 rockets and missiles into Israel, mostly at civilian targets. Additionally, Hezbollah fired over 10,000 rockets into Israel. The Houthi terrorists control Yemen and have conducted hundreds of attacks against regional targets in Saudi Arabia and during the Israel/Hamas war engaged shipping in the Red Sea and nearly shut it down. Iran demonstrated their force-projection capability by launching over 300 drones and missiles in a single failed attack against Israel. The point being, Iran is THE principal destabilizing force throughout the Middle East.
While Hezbollah calls the Middle East home, it has established an extensive Iran-supported terror infrastructure in Europe along with terror networks in Latin America and Africa that enables it to carryout international terrorist attacks.
- Iran has the 3rd largest world reserves of oil and the 2nd largest reserves of gas. In 2024 their oil exports averaged 1.6 million barrels per day. In 2025 that has increased to 1.7 million per day. About 90% of their oil export is to China.
- The UN is a toothless burearcracy and in its current configuration worthless with respect to their mission, “to achieve and maintain international security.”
- January 2025, Iran and Russia signed a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement. The agreement encompasses a broad range of cooperation areas, including political and diplomatic relations, economic and trade partnerships, military and security collaboration, and energy cooperation.
- Iran and China also have a 25-year strategic agreement addressing economic, military and security cooperation.
A LOOK AT THE PALESTINE SITUATION
As some would have you believe, the Palestinians are not one cohesive group waiting for Israeli genocide so they can move in and take the place of the Jewish state. “From the river (Jordan Rever) to the sea (Mediterranean Sea)” implies that Israel should cease to exist (Iran’s plan) and Palestine would consist of what is now Israel, the West Bank and Gaza.
About one half of the world’s Palestinian population continues to reside in Israel (250,000) the West Bank (870.000) and Gaza (1.4 million). Of the Palestinian population who live abroad, known as the Palestinian diaspora, more than half are stateless, lacking legal citizenship in any country. 2.3 million of the diaspora population are registered as refugees in neighboring Jordon, most of whom hold Jordanian citizenship. Over 1 million live between Syria and Lebanon about 750,000 live in Saudi Arabia and about half a million are outside of the Arab world.
CONCLUSIONS FROM THESE FACTS:
Let’s be honest about what Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis are; they are Iran trained, equipped and financed forward-deployed forces. Iran calls all the shots.
We and the remainder of the world have to take “negotiations” directly to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The U.S. must lead this effort because the United Nations is helpless and cannot lead any initiatives towards a productive end state.
Had the UN been active and successful in their mission to “maintain international peace and security”, we would not have had the Khamenei Regime in power for the last four decades. We would not have had Israel under threat or actually invaded continuously over the past five decades.
Iran has been, is currently and will continue to be THE problem in the Middle East and for the past three years the Biden Administration has supported that destabilization, thereby threatening Israel, threatening world-wide shipping lanes and de facto supported Iran’s nuclear and long-range missile capabilities.
BOTTOM LINE
Iran is the center of gravity in any effort to create a strong, durable and everlasting peace in the Middle East.
THE MIDDLE EAST CONTINUES TO BE AN UNCERTAIN MESS. CAN IT BE FIXED? YES.
President Trump has gained stature among world leaders because of his visionary proposal to end the Hamas/Israel War and his expertise in negotiations. Therefore, he must lead this endeavor.
During the first Trump administration, Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law, achieved visible success with his program called the Abram Accords. It was a successful effort to get a number of Middle East nations to consider closer relations with Israel and an effort towards peaceful coexistence. This is simply an indicator that a different, peaceful Middle East is within the art of the possible.
Most successful complex strategic plans begin at the end. That is, with a clearly defined end state. In this case, President Trump’s words, “A Strong, Durable and Everlasting peace in the Middle East” fits nicely.
Everlasting peace can become a reality but only if two actions can be accomplished. One, Iran must abandon the 40-year outspoken pledge to, “destroy Israel and death to America.”
Secondly, the continued existence of active terrorist groups inside the Middle East nations is a non-starter. As we build Campaign Phase Two, let’s see if It may be possible to starve out the terrorists rather than have to kill them.
CAMPAIGN PHASE TWO CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS
President Trump should speak personally with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Gatar to give them a heads-up on the forthcoming campaign and ask for their support to the campaign and to also begin convincing other Middle East nation that they should also get on board.
President Trump should capitalize on his current, well deserved, admiration and contact a large number of world leaders giving them a heads-up that he is seeking to create a strong, durable and everlasting peace in the Middle East. Ask for their uncompromising support as they are kept informed of progress and agree to participate as part of the coalition force against Iran and the terrorist organizations.
President Trump should immediately have a very frank discussion with the United Nations Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres. Begin the conversation with a reminder of his mission to “maintain international peace and security” and the UN’s failure to actively seek to do so for decades. Tell him, not ask him, that as the campaign to achieve strong, durable and everlasting peace in the Middle East, there will be some specific tasks that the UN must perform quickly and firmly without reservation.
A LETTER TO AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI, LEADER OF IRAN
Ayatollah, the Coalition leaders from across the world who have signed this letter to you have pledged their full support to achieving a strong, durable and everlasting peace in the Middle East.
You have two choices:
One, you can immediately and completely comply with every concession outlined below and eventually become an active member nation in a peaceful Middle East.
Or you can resist, non-comply with the demands and suffer the consequences outlined below. If your position is total noncompliance, the coalition will enter Iran with an overwhelming force, take down your government and destroy every element of your military establishment.
Be advised that you will soon see a massive coalition naval force operating in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
You have been for the past four decades the world’s leading sponsor of terrorist organizations. That must cease immediately. The demands are as follows:
FINANCIAL SUPPORT. A group of financial experts from the Coalition will arrive in Iran to examine your existing capability to financially support groups outside your borders. After their arrival, if it is determined that your government has provided a single dollar of financial assistance to any organization outside your borders there will be immediate consequences.
Here is one example. You are currently exporting about 1.7 million barrels of oil per day. We recognize that as a major financial support to your nation. Having determined that you continue to support terrorist organizations financially, the naval force in your area of operations will not allow 25% of the oil export vessels to depart Iran.
ISLAMIC REVOLUTIONARY GUARD CORPS. ITS SPECIAL OPERATIONS UNIT, THE ELITE QUDS FORCE
The Coalition believes the Quds Force supports non-state actors in many countries, including Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Houthi movement, and Shia militias in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan. The Quds Force is a classic example of state-sponsored terrorism.
Therefore, the entire organization, all of its people, all of its liaison, all of its external activities must be immediately completely dissolved and shut down. Observers from the United Nations will soon be on site to observe and evaluate the depth of the dissolution.
Ayatollah, we are all aware that, over the past years, you have frequently denied UN observers access to nuclear activities. If that behavior occurs in this case, there will be an immediate additional 25% reduction in exported oil.
WEAPONS PRODUCTION AND DISTRIBUTION.
A joint operation conducted by the Israel Security Agency and the Israel Defense Forces, recently foiled a major weapons smuggling attempt from Iran aimed at supplying terrorist groups in Judea and Samaria in the West Bank.
The Coalition demands that you immediately shut down the manufacture of every weapons system and drone production. The facilities will not only cease operations but they will be rendered incapable of ever being operational again.
It is believed that as of this past summer your oil refinery capability increased to 2.4 million barrels per day. Failure to immediately cease weapons and drone production will cause the Coalition to order the off-shore naval forces to destroy 50% of your refinery capability.
NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND LONG-RANGE MISSILE CAPABILITY
You have no use for nuclear weapons or the capability for long-range delivery. On-going operations for both will cease immediately and equipment and facilities for both will be totally destroyed or permanently moved out of country.
United Nations inspectors will be given 100% access to all facilities. Failure to provide access and/or to destroy all production capability will result in overwhelming Coalition ground forces entering Iran to verify compliance.
COALITIONS CAN BE EFFECTIVE
Ayatollah, you will of course recall August 1990 when Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi forces attacked, defeated and occupied their neighbor Kuwait with what Saddam Hussein used to brag was the “Mother of all Armies.”
The United States put together a coalition of 39 countries, of which 28 contributed combat forces.
Force size: Approximately 670,000 troops from 28 countries, 425,000 of which were from the United States.
Coalition air component size: 2,500 combat aircraft, 1,800 of which were American.
Coalition airlift: 509,000 passengers and 594,000 tons of cargo carried.
Coalition sorties flown: 100,000 plus.
Aerial refueling: 15,400 sorties dispensed 110 million gallons of fuel.
Number of dumb bombs dropped: 210,000.
Number of smart bombs dropped: 9,300.
30mm depleted uranium rounds fired by A-10 manned aircraft (tank-killers): 782,000.
Duration of air campaign before the ground invasion: 39 days.
Iraqi tanks lost during the war: 3,700 out of 4,300 oh hand.
Number of U.S. Carrier Battle Groups on station: 6.
Coalition POWs taken during the war: 26.
Iraqi POWs taken during the war: 70,000 plus.
U.S. combat related deaths: 147
Iraqi military deaths: 100,000 plus.
Ground war duration: 100 hours
Ayatollah, these numbers should convince you that if you resist this initiative, you, your government, your forward deployed terrorist organizations, and your destabilization of the entire Middle East are going down hard and fast.
The Coalition’s Rules of Engagement will be to always minimize collateral damage and attempt to have zero civilian casualties.
Ayatollah, here is a recent quote from your people, ““We, the Iranian people, are exhausted. We don’t want war, we don’t want sanctions, and we don’t even want a ceasefire. We just want to live in peace in the country we love.” Of your 92 million Iranians, it is highly possible that the majority of them have this same simple desire for peace. That is what this Coalition is supporting.
Our advice to you is to stand down right now, take your loyalists with you and turn the government over to the peace-loving Iranians who want to be part of a peace-loving Middle East.
(Coalition Leaders’ signatures)
Mr. President, you are on a roll. Make this happen.
And, oh by the way Mr. President, while you are at it:
Should there be a follow-on Phase Three? Yes.
Can there be a follow-on Phase three? Yes, and now is the time.
Is there a detailed concept of operations already prepared for Phase Three? Yes.
it’s called CAMPAIGN WORLD PEACE FOREVER.
Last published on WeThePeopleSpeaking.com February 2025
PS, without Iran’s total support, terrorist organizations will not be firing tens of thousands of rockets into civilian areas. But if they do survive Phase Two, they absolutely will not survive Phase Three.
Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO EXECUTION, a book for leaders, FIX THE SYSTEMS, TRANSFORM AMERICA as well as the author of a blog WeThePeopleSpeaking.com