Month: April 2024

The world is frantically searching for answers to the question, what to do about Iran? The discussions seem to quickly turn into a debate about military options; who will/should do “it”, what military actions will be best/possible, when to strike, where to strike, why course of action A is better than others and how to strike (conventional munitions, nuclear weapons, drones, missiles, manned aircraft, etc.).

Every day there seems to be a new version of the above.  Perhaps they all miss the mark.  Let’s begin by dissecting the problem.

FACTS BEARING ON THE PROBLEM:

1. Iran has the 3^rd largest world reserves of oil and the 2^nd largest reserves of gas.

Iran is exporting more oil than at any time in the past six years, around 3 million barrels per day, giving its economy a $35 billion-a-year boost, 

The Iranians have mastered the art of sanctions circumvention and thereby created an increase of 20 % oil production over the last 12 months and will continue to grow throughout 2024, currently averaging about 3.2 million barrels per day.

2. Since 1984 Iran has been designated “the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism.” Tehran played a major role in forming Hezbollah and helping it conduct attacks in Lebanon, including the 1983 bombings of the U.S. Marine barracks and embassy, which together killed more than 300 people.

3. For four decades the Iranian leaders have consistently articulated their twofold objectives; “destruction of Israel and “death to America”.

4. Iran recently demonstrated their force-projection capability by launching over 300 drones and missiles in a single failed attack against Israel.

5. The UN is a toothless bureaucracy and in its current configuration worthless with respect to their mission, “to achieve and maintain international security.”

6. The Trump administration renewed UN sanctions on Iran and enforced them.  Iran’s foreign currency reserves fell from $128 billion in 2015 to $15 billion in 2019,

7. During the Trump administration, Iran’s capabilities and options were reduced and the U.S. was gaining ground in Middle East countries’ acceptance of Israel’s right to exist and prosper as a friendly neighbor.

8. For the Biden administration it has been three years of appeasement. Biden has rewarded the Ayatollah to the tune of about $100 billion; that is, massive revenue from the non-enforcement of U.S. oil sanctions over three years, a $6 billion ransom payment and a $10 billion sanctions waiver.

9. Tehran has used its proxy army of more than a dozen militias and terror groups across the Middle East with outposts around the world to help foment instability, carry out attacks, and expand the scope of the Islamic Revolution.

10. Iran has contributed hundreds of millions of dollars on training and equipping Hamas and Hizballah terrorist organizations in the past few years. In Yemen, Iran has provided a wide range of weapons, training, advanced equipment such as unmanned aerial systems, and other support to Houthi militants, who engaged in hundreds of attacks against regional targets in Saudi Arabia and are now endangering world shipping in the Red Sea.  When Trump took office, he put the Houthi organization on the world terrorist list.  Biden, immediately took them off the terrorist list for no reason other than to undo a Trump initiative.

11. Currently, the U.S. has about 4,000 troops deployed throughout the Middle East. Since 7 October, 2023 there have been over 150 Iran-sponsored attacks on these soldiers. In January three U.S. soldiers were killed and 40 others injured when an Iran-backed militia struck their base in Jordan.

12. NUCLEAR WEAPONS: Periodically since 2021 various sources have speculated that Iran could possibly produce a nuclear weapon within “weeks”.  Do they now have one?  No one knows or they are afraid to tell.  But the bottom line is that IRAN CANNOT BE TRUSTED WITH A NUCLEAR WEAPON. This Coalition concept of getting Iran’s attention can also be used on the nuclear issue.

CONCLUSIONS FROM THE ABOVE:

• Erase oil and gas exports from their economic equation and Iran would become basically a poor country.
• Iran’s land-force military capability is of little concern in the larger context of their intent to destroy Israel and death to America.
• Iran has been, is currently and will continue to be THE problem in the Middle East and for the past three years the Biden Administration has supported that destabilization, thereby threatening Israel, threatening world-wide shipping lanes and de facto supported Iran’s soon-to-be nuclear capability.

Given the above information and conclusions, we can now more clearly define the problem with Iran.  Without gas and oil exports, Iran is basically a poor nation that would be unable to support terrorist organization with hundreds of millions of dollars in funding, training and equipment. With their billions of dollars from oil and gas exports, Iran is a world-wide threat to international stability and security. 

Simply stated, the problem is that for four decades Iran has been allowed to build a force projection capability consisting of Iran-trained, equipped and led terrorist organizations operating outside Iran’s borders. Take away Iran’s ability to financially support those forces and they will no longer be a significant conventional threat to Middle East stability.

The intent of this essay is to get the current administration off its collective butt, cool off the armed conflict in the Middle East, and get the attention of the Iranian Ayatollah who feels comfortable blowing off criticism from the remainder of the world.

BOTTOM LINE:

We need to stop thinking about 12 Iran-supported terrorist organizations as independent operators and begin referring to them as forward-deployed elements of the greater Iran military establishment. Forward deploying forces is not a new concept. For example, the U.S. has had forward air and land forces on European soil continuously since WW II and in South Korea since the armistice was signed in 1952. 

Accepting that Hamas, Hizballah, Houthis and militias in Iraq and Syria are an active and essential part of Iran’s military efforts in the Middle East leads us to the conclusion that, in fact, Iran attacked Israel on 7 October 2023, just as in a bold move they tried and failed miserably to attack Israel directly with drones and missiles on 13 April, 2024. 

Direct action needs to be taken against Iran and the UN is incapable of leading such an effort.

Course of action A is to take the fight directly to Iran with an American-led coalition of nations.

We know that an American-led Coalition is possible because we did it in Desert Storm,1991 against Saddam Hussein after Iraqi forces invaded and occupied Kuwait in 1990. Call it Operation Middle East Freedom, 2024

PHASE ONE:  BUILD THE ORGANIZATION AND DATA BASE.

Use the existing G7 as the base of the coalition. The Group of Seven is an intergovernmental political and economic forum consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States; additionally, the European Union is a “non-enumerated member”.  Invite all other nations to join the coalition with air assets and missiles or just in name only.

Define the end-state. Take away Iran’s ability to support their forward-deployed terrorist organizations that are destabilizing world-wide peace and stability.

Immediately begin a detailed intelligence gathering operation using the capabilities of all coalition members.  Emphasis will be on Humint, human intelligence resources to accomplish the following:

• Determine the exact location of every Iranian air defense asset.
• Determine the exact location of every combat aircraft and helicopter.
• Determine the address of every facility that is engaged in the production of weapons, drones, military gear and ammunition.
• Build a data base of everything associated with production, transportation and exporting of gas and oil.

PHASE TWO: FORWARD DEPLOYMENT

Move the coalition force to Saudi Arabia; just as we did in 1991.

PHASE THREE:  EXECUTE

The intent of Operation Middle East Freedom is to use airpower to minimize Iran’s 40-year reign as the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism. No boots on the ground at this time for Operation Middle East Freedom.

FIRST STRIKE, unannounced, will destroy all of Iran’s air defense assets; command and control and air defense weapons systems.  Their 2024 inventory of combat aircraft is 219 plus 126 helicopters; destroy them on the ground with air and missile munitions. 

SECOND STRIKE: Take down their capability to export millions of barrels of crude oil per day and thereby reduce financing to support forward-deployed terrorists and militias. This strike will include a 2-hour warning to Iran’s leaders to immediately remove all civilians from every area that is engaged in any activity associated with drilling, production, transport and export of gas and oil.

Three years ago, Iran opened its first oil terminal in the Gulf of Oman, a move that allows it to avoid using the narrow Strait of Hormuz shipping route that is vulnerable to being shut down.  Take out the pipeline and terminal capable of handling 1 million barrels per day of export oil.

When the second-strike warning is issued, ensure that it is available to the whole world. Take away Iran’s ability to claim the coalition targeted civilians and caused some ridiculous number of causalities. 

THIRD STRIKE: Iran has become a major producer of weapons, missiles, ammunition and drones to supply their forward deployed terrorist organization. Use aerial attacks to destroy every weapons production site; some are undoubtedly deep underground.

Iran’s military-industrial complex has been growing rapidly since the mid-1990s. Today, it reportedly exports weapons to fifty-seven countries, many in conflict areas, in violation of UNSCR 1747. 

Iranian military equipment suitable for regional proxies and other customers includes but is not limited to small arms and ammunition, explosively formed penetrators (EFPs), communications equipment, night-vision goggles, thermal scopes, high-power sniper rifles, long-range mortars, man-portable air-defense systems and artillery rockets.

DRONES:  Iran’s military-industrial complex has produced thousands of advanced drones used for surveillance, reconnaissance, and combat against U.S. forces as well as American allies in the Middle East. The drones, unmanned aerial vehicles, have become one of the greatest assets of the Iranian-backed “Axis of Resistance”, a network of militias in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.

As of January 2024, Tehran has exported drones or drone technology to at least five countries on four continents as well as to at least seven proxy militias in the Middle East.

Drones pose a continuing threat to Middle East security because of their low cost, widespread availability, and potential deniability, since their point of origin can be disguised.

Drones to Russia: October, 2022 the Ukrainian Defense Minister announced, “Approximately 300 Iranian drones remain in the Russian arsenal and they plan to buy several thousand more.”

MISSILES: Iran’s missile proliferation efforts have enormous destabilizing potential for the region. Iran has about 20 different ballistic missile models as well as cruise missiles with delivery ranges up to 2,000 Kilometers. Nine different Iranian missile models can reach Israel.

PHASE FOUR, SANCTIONS:

Every nation in the coalition will agree to participate in the most severe sanctions imposed on Iran that have any impact on rebuilding their gas/oil export business, on rebuilding their military industrial capabilities and on their ability to transfer financing to any of their forward deployed terrorist organizations and militias.

MESSAGE TO IRAN’S SUPREME LEADER AYATOLLAH ALL KHOMENEI:  Hi is the most powerful figure in Iran; the country’s supreme leader since 1989. He is head of state and commander-in-chief. He has authority over the national police and the “morality police.” The Ayatollah also controls the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps which is in charge of internal security, and its volunteer wing, the Basiji Resistance Force which has repeatedly quelled internal dissent.

Simultaneously with the beginning of the FIRST STRIKE, this official Coalition message will be delivered to the Ayatollah and also publicized to the world. 

Date and time🙁as the first strike begins)

Memorandum for: Ayatollah All Khamenei

Subject:  This strike is the beginning of Operation Middle East Freedom. The Coalition of (number) nations intends to take away your capability to continue to be “the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism.”

There is no intent to cause military or civilian casualties.

In future strikes you will be warned at least two hours prior to the strike. When the message announcing the 2-hour dispersal alert to you, the coalition will also use all available communications means to inform your citizens because we do not trust you to protect them.  Any reports of citizen casualties, if they are true, is on you and the world will know that. 

Ayatollah, there are three circumstances explained next that will cause the coalition to escalate the operation to include ground operations.  

CONDITION ONE FOR ESCALATION: 

The coalition is taking the same position of that practiced by NATO nations over the past eight decades. That is, Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty states: “The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them . . . shall be considered an attack against them all.” 

The point being, the Coalition is hereby advising you that if there is any counter attack, including cyber, conventional military, manned air, drones of any kind, missiles, rockets or nuclear, against any Coalition member from this moment forward by your forces in Iran or any of the terrorist or militias forwarded deployed that you support in any way will result in an immediate response from the Coalition. 

The response will be to immediately transition from an air-only operation to an all-out air-ground operation.  The Ground operation’s intent will be to accomplish the following: 

• All military forces and every associated facility and military item will be dissolved and/or destroyed.
• Military forces resisting the Coalition ground force will become casualties or captured. POWs will be incarcerated.
• Any military leader of a company-level sized force or larger may surrender in-mass if every person in the unit comes forward with their uniforms and every piece of equipment associated with their military duties. The equipment will be destroyed and the personnel released to go home.
• Any individual military member may of their own choosing appear at a designated site with uniforms and equipment, surrender his/her allegiance to your military and be released to go home. 
• Within hours or days, you will have no military force or military equipment.
• Your government will cease to exist.
• The coalition will provide all support necessary for a new government of-the-people and by-the-people to be selected and seated.
• The general nature of the Iranian society will include equal opportunities for all men and women alike in education, property ownership, general rights and privileges, professional careers in law, medicine, teaching, government, etc. 

THE SECOND CONDITION that will cause the Coalition to escalate to ground operations described above has to do with your intent to become a nuclear power. If it is determined that you have (1) completed development a nuclear weapon or (2) that you have purchased or bartered for and have on hand all the necessary elements to produce a nuclear weapon within days or (3) if you have purchased a completed nuclear weapon, the Coalition ground forces will engage and take down that entire nuclear capability and destroy every associated facility you have hidden underground or inside mountains.

THE THIRD CONDITION that will cause the Coalition to escalate to ground operations described above has to do with your barbaric dehumanizing of women in a modern world.

During the late 20th and early 21st centuries in Iran, women’s rights have been severely restricted, compared with those in most developed nations. The World Economic Forum in 2017 ranked Iran 140, out of 144 countries, for gender parity. In 2017, in Iran, females comprised just 19% of the paid workforce, 

Ayatollah, as you are well aware, you formed up the “Morality Police Force” in 1979 and still control them today.

While Iran has reported that the morality police force was abolished in 2022, the same day Iran launched its first ever direct attack on Israel,13 April, 2024, you ordered your morality police force in several cities to take to the streets to arrest women accused of flouting its strict Islamic dress code.

Under Iran’s sharia, or Islamic law, women are obliged to cover their hair and wear long, loose-fitting clothes. Offenders face public rebuke, fines or arrest and reeducation centers.

The laws have become a political flashpoint since protests over the death of a young woman in the custody of the country’s “morality police” in 2022 spiraled into the worst political turmoil since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Women who are too casually dressed are frequently arrested for “inciting public opinion”, sometimes tortured, sometimes killed and often detained in re-education centers. 

Ayatollah, this rabid discrimination against women is unprecedented even in neighboring Muslim countries.

This barbaric behavior must be stopped and it is up to you to do so. The morality police force must once-and-for-all be completely disbanded. 

Act immediately, the Coalition is watching and waiting for positive actions.

At this point, Ayatollah, you are possibly concluding that this Coalition is likely to be an impossible undertaking. We are telling you a coalition effort is certainly within the art of the possible. You will recall in 1990 Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi forces attacked, defeated and occupied Kuwait. Many believed it was a stepping-stone move towards the Saudi Arabian oil fields. In January 1991 a 38-nation coalition attacked and defeated Saddam Hussien’s vaunted “mother of all armies” in just six weeks of air and ground operations. Please pay attention to these numbers which tell a powerful story.

Coalition: 39 countries, of which 28 contributed combat forces

Force size: Approximately 670,000 troops from 28 countries, 425,000 of which were from the United States.

Coalition air component size: 2,250 combat aircraft, 1,800 of which were American.

Coalition airlift: 509,129 passengers and 594,730 tons of cargo carried.

Coalition sorties flown: 100,000+.

Aerial refueling: 15,434 sorties and dispensed 110.2 million gallons of fuel.

Number of dumb bombs dropped: 210,000.

Number of smart bombs dropped: 9,342.

30mm depleted uranium rounds fired by A-10 manned aircraft (tank-killers): 782,514.

Duration of air campaign before ground invasion: 39 days.

Iraqi tanks lost during the war: 3,700 out of 4,280 in inventory.

Number of U.S. Carrier Battle Groups on station: 6.

Coalition POWs taken during the war: 26.

Iraqi POWs taken during the war: 70,000+.

U.S. combat related deaths: 147

Iraqi military deaths: 100,000+.

Ground war duration: 100 hours.

That, Ayatollah, is a glimpse into your future if you so choose.  It is up to you. The message to you articulated in this memo is not a “threat”, it Is a “promise”. From this day forward, your relationship with your forward deployed terrorist organizations and various militia’s must not include offensive military actions or training them for military actions or financing them to further their offensive actions or providing them with military equipment to carry out military actions or assisting them in planning for military actions.  Cease being a sponsor of world-wide terrorism, cease being a destabilizing force throughout the Middle East. You, Ayatollah, must understand that one more Hamas rocket into Israel or one more missile by Hizballah into Israel or one more drone from Houthis into the Red Sea shipping lanes or into Saudi oil production areas or one more attack on U.S. anti-terrorist forces in the Middle East and you will be personally responsible for initiation of phase two Coalition ground operations inside Iran and the mayhem resulting from it.  We are not doing this to the great Iranian people, we are doing it for them.

We, the leaders of the following listed Coalition nations, hereby pledge our willingness and equipment to fulfilling the Coalition commitment.

In alphabetical order: (for example)

Australia, Brazil, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Finland, Germany, India, Israil, Italy, Japan, Jordan, Kenya, Mexico, Morocco, Netherlands, Norway, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, United Arab Emirates, United States of America, United Kingdom.

End of the memorandum to the Ayatollah.

Note to President Biden: 

• During your first three years in office, you have played nice with Iran allowing them to build a sophisticated military-industrial complex and establish an extensive weapons-export capability.
• You have provided the Ayatollah with billions of dollars used to support terrorist activities.
• You have expanded their training, equipping and funding of active terrorist organizations and militias, thereby destabilizing the Middle East.
• You have softened the previously imposed sanctions, particularly on gas and oil exports, to enrich Iran to embellish its across-the-board destabilizing activities culminating on a long-promise of attack on Israel.
•  And in the first four months of the Israeli/Hamas war, Iran-backed terrorist groups and militias have attacked U.S. and allied forces stationed in the Middle East over 150 times, killing three and wounded dozens without a U.S. response from our Commander in Chief, you.
• That, Mr. President is your legacy.

A WAY AHEAD:

1. Get the above information (readers please help) into the hands of a senior official in the State Department, DOD and the National Security Advisor’s staff. Initially handle it as close-hold and eyes-only in order to keep it from leaking from the Government into the media as an official action.
2. Get President Biden involved. 
3. The President should send the Secretaries of State and Defense to Saudi Arabia to meet with Mohammed Bin Salman and get him on board to accept the Coalition onto Saudi soil.
4. The President should call each G-7 nations and ask them to sign on to a close-hold eyes-only probable campaign. Aks them to help expand the Coalition membership.
5. Set the operation’s timeline.
6. The President will offer up our entire air cargo fleet to rapidly deploy the Coalition’s forces into the Middle East and then our entire air-refueling fleet in support of Coalition air-ops execution. See again the amazing numbers from Operate Desert Storm in 1991.
7. Select the best air component commander for the Coalition; it may be other than a U.S. officer. Select the best ground component commander, who also may not be a U.S. soldier.  Select the best overall Coalition Commander, hopefully a U.S. leader.
8. Execute soonest and make the world a more safe and secure place.

Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO EXECUTION, a book for leaders, FIX THE SYSTEMS, TRANSFORM AMERICA as well as the author of a blog WeThePeopleSpeaking.com

“In our country 80% of homicides are committed with guns, whereas in England the figure is only 4 %.

More Americans have died of gunshot wounds in the United States since 1968 than have been killed in all the wars we have fought here and abroad since 1775.”

Those are a couple compelling, attention-getting facts recently presented by Joseph Blocher, a distinguished professor of law at Duke University.

SOME U.S. GUN STATS: There was covid-period record-setting statistics associated with fire arms.

• In 2021, the most recent year for which complete data is available, 48,830 people died from gun-related injuries in the U.S.,more than in any other year on record,
• Some gun-data history: While 2021 saw the highest total number of gun deaths in the U.S., this statistic does not take into account the nation’s growing population. On a per capita basis, there were 14.6-gun deaths per 100,000 people in 2021; the highest rate since the early 1990s, but still well below the peak of 16.3-gun deaths per 100,000 people in 1974.
• Suicides have long accounted for the majority of U.S. gun deaths. In 2021, 54% of all gun-related deaths were suicides, 26,328.
• 18,874, the number of firearm deaths, excluding suicides in 2023.
• 36,357, the number of firearm injuries in 2023.
• 6,192, the number of children and teenagers shot in 2023.
• 14 million, the number of guns Americans purchased in 2023.
• An estimated 82.9 million people owned at least one firearm in 2023.
• In 2023 the average decrease in homicides across U.S. cities was 12.3% and gun injuries declined in record amounts since 2021.
• Gun sales have declined steadily since 2020.
• 494.4 million, the cumulative total of firearms produced for the U.S. market since 1899.
• Gun ownership increased 28% from 1994 to 2023.
• In 2023, 72% of gun owners said they keep a firearm for protection.
• Only 6.06 million firearms are registered in the U.S.
• Women accounted for half of all gun purchases between 2019 and 2021 and first-time gun owners were more likely to be female.
• An estimated 40% of 52 million households have a least one firearm.
• An interesting fact is that federal data over the past 50 years show a direct relationship between the number of guns produced and deaths from fire arms for that same period.

These facts beg an answer to the question, can there be an intelligent discussion about gun control leading perhaps to some resolution?

As of right now gun control is hopelessly in the hands of politicians. The Republicans simply say, “I support the Second Amendment” which is a non-solution, implying the status quo is fine. It isn’t fine.   

The Democrats seem to imply that “gun control” is synonymous with “outlaw all guns.” Not a reasonable, practical, or intelligent approach.

With those two hardline political positions, neither party appears to be looking for a practical, workable, fair solution that keeps in place the “right to bear arms” guaranteed by the second amendment to the Constitution as well as increased safe-guards against the availability of guns to those who would use then to harm themselves and others. We need a plan, not an argument. Any planning process begins with assembling facts and assumptions and articulating a desired end state.

FACTS AND ASSUMPTIONS RELEVENT TO ANY GUN CONTROL PLAN:

How many fire arms are in circulation in the U.S? No one knows for sure but the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms has conducted exhaustive studies as recently as 2023 and concluded from historical production rates, exports and attrition rates over many decades that there could be as many as 378 million guns in circulation in the U.S.  

Fact, there are no existing federal laws requiring all guns to be registered by local, state or federal authorities.

Fact, serial numbers on newly manufactured guns became more standardized and required by law in the United States with the passage of the Gun Control Act of 1968. But there are many tens of millions of guns in circulation without a serial number.

Fact, we do not know who has firearms or how many each individual owns.

Bottom line fact: there is no national data base of information with which to develop consistent “control” laws for all U.S. citizen gun owners.

Fact, in recent years women’s firearm ownership has increased 178%. Assumption, this is for self-protection from our on-going crisis of lawlessness.

Assumption, there are tens of millions of guns in homes across the U.S. that have not been used for long periods of time and under the right circumstances could be given up by the owners.  Case in point, in my younger years I hunted frequently and still have a number guns that I have not used or even fired for several decades. I could/would turn them in and take them out of circulation.

Part assumption, part fact, THEY ARE COMING FOR YOUR GUNS, NOW.

Bottom line fact, President Biden desperately wants his legacy to include gun removal from private citizens, the Second Amendment be damned. 

BIPATISAN SAFER COMMUNITIES ACT: On June 25, 2022, President Biden signed into law this Act which is the first major federal gun control bill passed since the 1994 Assault Weapons Ban.

The Act has more to do with mental health, school safety, and funding for related programs than it does with banning or restricting specific types of firearms, which is likely why it received enough Republican support to pass the House and Senate.

COURSE OF ACTION ONE FOR GUN CONTROL:

March, 2024, Biden’s Department of so-called Justice launched an initiative, under the guise of the Safer Communities Act to confiscate your guns. The National Extreme Risk Protection Order (ERPO) Resource Center is designed to provide training and technical assistance to law enforcement officials, prosecutors, attorneys, judges, clinicians, victim service and social service providers, community organizations, and behavioral health professionals responsible for implementing laws designed to keep guns out of the hands of people who pose a threat to themselves or others.

“Attorney General Merrick Garland said, “The launch of the National Extreme Risk Protection Order Resource Center will provide our partners across the country with valuable resources to keep firearms out of the hands of individuals who pose a threat to themselves or others. The establishment of the Center is the latest example of the Justice Department’s work to use every tool provided by the landmark Bipartisan Safer Communities Act to protect communities from gun violence.”

Most will admit on the surface some of the provisions could be helpful.  But when put into practice it can become a national disaster.  Keep in mind this national program was not authorized by Congress.  This is a Biden administration Executive Order-type operation.

The operable questions here are, who are the people who, “pose a threat”? Where does the information/intelligence emanate from?  Who is authorized to raise this “red flag”? Is the information coming from a disgruntled neighbor?  From a jilted lover?  From a jealous workmate? From a hated family member? From an “extremist”?

 Keep in mind that your president has declared in a prime-time speech that, “MAGA extremists are a threat to America.” There you have it you will be doing the president’s bidding if you turn in your neighbor who is part of the 75-100 million citizens who the democrats categorize as MAGA extremist members; most of whom are probably gun owners.  And don’t forget that 72% of them own guns for personal protection of their family in Biden’s lawless society.

Supporters of ERPO say that using ERPO authority as a confiscation tool is a far-fetched claim. 

Far-fetched?

If I had claimed on 20 January 2021 that Biden would turn the southern border over to the Mexican cartels you would have said, that’s too far-fetched.

 If I had told you the porous border would allow such volume of illegal drugs that over 300 drug overdoses would happen every day with no counter action by the president, you would have said, that’s too farfetched.

If I had told you the Biden administration would create a border situation that would allow millions of criminals, gang members, cartel operatives, terrorists, drug dealers and human traffickers into the U.S., you would have said, that’s too farfetched.

If I had said Biden would cut and run from Afghanistan leaving $70 billion dollars’ worth of military arms and equipment for the Taliban, you would have said, that’s too farfetched. 

I could go on and on: ruined the military, insulted long-term allies, pulled sanctions from Iran thereby enriching them, abandoned our energy independence and then begged for imported oil from Venezuela, reduced the strategic oil reserves to dangerous levels, supported defunding police setting off the rise of a lawless America, put together the perfect storm for inflation to rise from 1.4% to 9%, caused interest rates to quadruple, have taxpayers pay for $1.2 trillion student loan debt, invite 11 million un-vetted illegal aliens into our country and give them a debit card and free travel, etc. etc. If these Biden-created crisis issues had been predicted on 20 January 2021, they would have all seemed too farfetched to become a reality. But here we are.

The point being, do not under-estimate what this administration is ready, willing and able to do to the American public. It’s all about power and control, your constitutional rights be damned.

Currently, the weaponized justice system crisis existing at the local, state and federal levels across the country cannot be trusted to recognize an honest citizen’s right to due process.  This red flag operation will likely operate in this order:

First, authorities will accept the accusation that a named person is a threat as fact and immediately pronounce sentencing; confiscate personal weapons, slander the accused’s good name and reputation and finally, perhaps, look for the truth of the accusation that the citizen is a threat to the community and/or themselves.  

Interestingly, this new Biden administration arms control roll-out does not focus on the armed and dangerous criminals and gang members who are roaming our streets and guilty of most of the homicides. This is about focusing on you and your guns; the guns that 72% of you say are to protect your family.

Bottom line, Course of Action One could quickly become an authoritarian dictatorial disaster threatening Constitutional rights. And, this is a big AND, the only ones left with guns will be the criminals.

One of the greatest visionaries the world has ever known, Thomas Jefferson.summed it up best about 240 years ago, “There is no justification for taking away individuals’ freedom in the guise of public safety.”

COURSE OF ACTION TWO, REAL ARMS CONTROL

The operative word is “control”.  In order to have real arms “control” we have to know where each gun is, who owns it and how to identify it and then reap the benefits from that data. Is that even possible?

Yes, it is possible; think, vehicles.  Vehicles are killing machines; more than 44,000 Americans died in vehicle accidents in 2023. Every vehicle is registered.  Every vehicle has a serial number. We pay a tax every year for the privilege of owning a vehicle. Every vehicle has to undergo an annual safety inspection.  That’s “control.”

You, tens of millions of law-abiding gun owners are saying right now, I don’t want to register my guns because I don’t trust the government with that information.  Yes, getting actual “control” over guns in America is going to be an inconvenience and an intrusion, but it is a necessary step if we are going to get to the heart of the gun problem which is armed criminals and gang members killing people in our lawless society. We have to have data to get to the end state.  A plan without a declared end state is not a plan.  Please just read on.

Full disclosure:  I am a gun owner; pistols, rifles, shotguns.  As a small boy growing up on an Iowa farm, there were many ways for youngsters to earn 25 or even 50 cents doing special tasks.  I saved my money and at age 10 ordered my first gun, a single-shot 22 caliber rifle, from the Sears and Robuck catalog which was about 2 inches thick and the Amazon.com of that era.  Not much background checking for a gun purchase in those days. In my younger years I hunted, but most of my guns are of no use to me now.   No one in the family wants them. I only need to keep one for family protection.  What to do with them? I know folks with the same situation and have done the following:  Go to a local gun “show.”  As you are unloading the guns you hope to sell at the “show” someone may likely approach you in the parking lot, inquire if you wish to sell them, make you an offer and the next day he/she may be on their way to Chicago with a load of guns that no one in the world knows about and that will be in the hands of street gang members for the next Saturday night Chicago shootout.

COURSE OF ACTION TWO, PHASE ONE:

Spring, 2025, with a new administration in place, Congress could pass the Gun Control Act of 2025.  It should not be more than a few pages long and can be published in every newspaper in the country.  The Act must contain the following directives:

1.Every county Sheriff’s Department will be the focal point for the Gun Control Act, 2025. All of the data on firearms they collect will be sent to the State to establish an up-to-date accurate gun-data collection point.

2. Any local, state or federal gun registration system currently in-being will become null-and-void upon passage of the Gun Control Act of 2025.

3. Before the end of calendar year 2025, every gun owner will have carried all of their firearms to their local Sheriff’s Department to register their weapons, by make, model caliber and type; for example, Winchester, model 336, 30 caliber, lever-action, rifle, serial number NC123654) and have a serial number engraved if one does not already exist. The states will provide each Sheriff with a block of serial numbers.  That data along with the owner’s name and address will be forwarded to the State’s central gun data collection point.

4. Also, while at that 2025 visit to the Sheriff’s Department the owners may turn in any weapons for destruction, no questions asked, as part of a federal government nation-wide Gun Buy-back Program and receive $100 dollars per weapon.  The Sheriff’s Department will be responsible for security of those weapons and for operating a weapons destruction program that will be personally observed by a Sheriff’s Deputy. I would probably participate in that program.

5. As of December 2025 every firearm manufactured in the U.S. must have a serial number before sold to dealers.  Every firearm imported into the U.S. must have a serial number.  And every firearm in the inventory of every gun dealer in the U.S. must have a serial number.

Note, by the end of December, 2025 it is conceivable that every firearm in the country, all 387 million of them, will fall in one of two categories.  Category One consists of firearms that are registered/serial numbered, legal and we know exactly where they are located. Category Two consists of all other firearms. It follows that local, state and federal officials can/should participate in a single continuous task, 24/7; that is, find the illegal firearms and whoever possesses them because both are in violation of the law.

  This is the beginning of “gun control.”

COURSE OF ACTION TWO, PHASE TWO:

6. January, 2026 the States will assess a $25 tax on every registered gun on the State’s Gun Registry, payable by 31 January, 2026. The owner of the gun has two choices. One, they may pay the tax and receive a 2026 registry card for each firearm, the same system used for the annual registry of vehicles.  Two, they may take the firearm along with the tax notice to the Sheriff’s Department, turn in the weapon for destruction, receive $100 from the Federal Gun Buy-back Program, have the gun removed from the State Gun Registry with no tax due.

Note, by the end of Phase Two, 31 January, 2026 it is assumed that perhaps tens of millions of the current estimated 378 million guns in circulation will have ceased to exist as part of the Federal Gun Buy-back Program.

COURSE OF ACTION TWO, PHASE THREE, From 1 February,2026 forward:

7. Anyone in the “possession” of an unregistered/non-serial numbered firearm will have committed a felony offense and will be subject to arrest. “Possession” means on their person, stored where they reside, in their vehicle, in a separate storage facility or any other space that would logically lead one to believe the weapon is, at least temporarily in their “possession.” If the gun has been borrowed from someone else, they are still in “possession.”

8. Anyone arrested for possession of an unregistered/no Serial numbered firearm will be jailed.  If that arrest is their first or second, they may be eligible for bail if the presiding judge is led to believe they are not a flight-risk or a threat to society. The judge may not, under any circumstances, set bail for any amount that is less than $100,000.  If this is their third or more arrest, “three strikes and out” comes into play. There will be no bail and they will remain in jail until tried and sentenced if found guilty.

9. Under no circumstance will any prosecutor or attorney general or judge be allowed to downgrade the charge of possession of an illegal firearm from a felony to a misdemeanor.

10. If found guilty of possession of an illegal firearm, the sentence will be a minimum of five years in jail without possibility of parole.

11. If I have a registered and serial numbered rifle I don’t need, can I sell it to my neighbor?  Sure, just go to the Sheriff’s Office, have them initiate a background check on the buyer and if cleared change the registration data for the owner of that firearm.

WHAT HAS JUST HAPPENED?

We have created a plan with positive identifiable end states.

For those individuals who are so depressed and mentally disturbed that they are contemplating suicide, one of the reasons they turn to suicide by gun is that guns are too readily available; 378 million of them.  Reduction of the inventory under the Federal Gun Buy-back Program should significantly reduce availability.

Every law-abiding gun owner has participated in a simple federal program that will protect their rights rather than put them in a situation wherein they could, at any time, be unjustifiably labeled a threat to society just because they own a gun.

DETERRENCE IS A POWERFUL FORCE:

Focused local law enforcement. 378 law enforcement officers were shot in the line of duty in 2023. With a justice system that requires incarceration of criminals for possession of a firearm, local law enforcement can focus on arresting those in passion of an illegal firearm. 

States’ Bureau of Investigation can focus on the larger issues associated with movement, distribution and sale of illegal firearms in their state.

Focused Federal ATF. The bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms can focus on their mission to,” investigate and prevent federal offenses involving the unlawful use, manufacture, and possession of firearms”. But now, they no longer have to be concerned with all firearms, just that number that are not registered and/or not serial numbered. 

With this law supporting all law enforcement agencies those gun “shows” mentioned above will now be crawling with authorities who are inspecting every firearm in the area for a serial number. 

More deterrence. Every one of the 1.4 million gang members in the 33,000 U.S. gangs should begin to think twice about strapping on their illegal gun before hitting the streets every night and possibly facing 5 years in jail without parole.

Additionally, with all of this focus and deterrent action, anyone contemplating buying an unregistered gun will find them increasingly scarce commodities and likely very expensive.

This law could/should become a deterrence model for all law enforcement.  That is, define the felony along with an appropriate sentence. Some might consider that too controlling but the reality today is we simply cannot trust our prosecutors, attorneys general and judges to act as keepers of the peace for the public’s safety and security. 

Recent case in point, a New York police officer, Jonathan Diller, was shot and killed by a career criminal, Guy Revera, who had been arrested 21 times.  Eleven times the charges were for a felony offence to include possession of a gun just 12 months earlier. Blood is on the hands of the local prosecutor and judge who allowed Rivera to be on the streets.

What has become common-place is for criminals with long wrap-sheets to be turned loose without bail to commit another crime.  This is not rocket-science; career criminals should be in jail thereby reenforcing the deterrence to convince individuals that crime does not pay.

CONCLUSIONS: 

We need some type of positive control over the growing inventory of weapons.

The focus of any program should be getting the guns away from criminals NOT from law-abiding citizens.

This plan to focus local, state and federal officials on illegal firearms is another reason in the long list of reasons to close our southern border.

A Federal Buy-back Program is a positive, easy, non-invasive step.

“Gun control” is a serious and very political national issue.  It is but should not be politically divisive.  We can and should find some satisfying dialogue that protects law abiding citizens and simultaneously targets gun-toting criminals.

If properly presented this issue/plan should become a bipartisan initiative.

If the plan is executed, we may need more prison cells. 

This proposed Gun Control Act, 2025 will actually be about rights, responsibilities and creating a better America.

 RECOMMENDATIONS:

Candidates for federal office in all political parties should, right now, put this gun control program on the campaign platform and support it.  

The Biden administration won’t so the next administration should immediately kill the despicable, invasive and probably not Constitutional REPO program the Justice Department is currently launching to confiscate your guns.

Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO EXECUTION, a book for leaders, FIX THE SYSTEMS, TRANSFORM AMERICA as well as the author of a blog WeThePeopleSpeaking.com