DO WE NEED A STRONG MILITARY IN PEACETIME?

The short answer to the question, do we need a strong military in peacetime is, yes, we do.  The problem is, the Democrat Party DNA says, no we don’t. For example:

During the Carter administration,1977-1981, America’s military went “hollow.” That is, the services lacked the manpower, training, readiness and equipment to protect U.S. interests worldwide.  It was a very dangerous move because we were in the midst of the Cold War when the Soviet Union and nuclear annihilation was a daily concern.

Although President Reagan did the best he could to rebuild the military in the 1980s, President Clinton accentuated the post-Cold War so called “peace dividend” and defense spending cuts took readiness to a low not seen for decades.

Between 1993 and 2001, the Clinton Administration cut national defense by more than half a million personnel and $50 billion in inflation-adjusted dollars. The Army lost four active divisions and two reserve divisions. The number of total active personnel in the Air Force decreased by nearly 30 percent. The total number of Navy ships decreased by 20%, from 393 to 316. The Marine Corps end-strength dropped 22,000 personnel. Beyond the force cuts, acquisition of new equipment and modernization dropped to near zero.  The tactical force; tanks, helicopters, Bradley fighting vehicles, surface ships, submarines, bombers, and tactical aircraft, was worn out when President Bush took office.

After President Bush rebuilt the military to the extent he could in order to take on the global war on terrorism, the Obama/Biden administration took the military to new lows in readiness. When Obama left office, the Army had one, only ONE, combat brigade that was fully combat ready and half our Airforce and Naval airplanes could not get off the ground. Studies in 2017 suggested, “it will take an estimated eight to ten years for readiness in the services to recover.”

The mission of the U.S. military is two-fold.  One, the obvious, fight and win the nation’s wars.   The second, less obvious, in times of peace, deter war. Without being ready to win we risk everything.  Without deterrence we live our daily lives hoping our enemies will not attack.  But hope is not a process.   Without a ready, powerful, known quantity force, without the will and judgement of civilian leaders to use that strength properly, we are increasingly vulnerable every day. 

DETERRENT FORCE DEFINED:

A strong deterrent force is peace of mind.  Our enemies, Russia, China, Iran, North Korea and the world-wide terrorist networks have to know and believe that if they strike the U.S. there will be hell to pay; immediately.  Fear of being defeated must be a leading factor in our enemys’ decision processes. 

The U.S. military has two main purposes; to deter our enemies from engaging us in warfare, and if that fails, to defeat them in combat. Deterrence is only possible if the opposing force believes it will be defeated. Respect is not good enough; fear and certainty are required.

A point of clarification; often, we refer to a positive deterrent posture as a “strong defense.”  That is a misnomer, actually it is better defined as a strong, overwhelming offensive capability. Deterrence is our enemies knowing we are prepared to take our forces anywhere, anytime and defeat them. 

THE THREAT IS REAL AND EMIMENT:

In the early days of our Revolutionary War 4,000 British troops were sent to occupy Boston and put down the rebellion.  Total defeat of the American independence movement was a possibility.  During our Civil War, there were times of great doubt that the United States could ever again be a “united” states.  But not since those two historic events has our nation been as vulnerable as it is today.

We are vulnerable to “attack” in various ways by one or more of the following enemies; China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and terrorist organizations.

IRAN: The Supreme Leader has repeatedly declared that it is Iran’s duty to destroy America and Israel. Recent reports indicate Iran is “close” to having a nuclear weapon. Biden’s reduced sanctions is leading to a more aggressive Iran, increased support for global terrorism, a more destabilized Middle East and a greater threat to the U.S.

TERRORISTS: Iran will use the fall of Afghanistan to provide direction and support of a safe haven for terrorist training in Afghanistan thereby ratcheting up the global war on terror with a particular focus on taking down the United States. 

NORTH KOREA: On 4 May 2021, after Trump was no longer on overwatch, NK resumed missile testing.  Biden, “We will respond if North Korea escalates.”  Mr. President, renewed missile testing is escalation!  January 2022, NK conducted seven test missile launches.

RUSSIA:  Since the end of the cold war, the strength of NATO has served as the deterrent to Putin’s expansionist plans. Obviously, those days are over.

The pipeline cyberattack on the U.S. oil pipeline, May, 2021 was a Russian proof of concept trial balloon with zero ramification. Should anyone believe Putin is above using that list to take down our country?

CHINA:  They are already several years into executing a long-range strategic plan to rule the world and reduce U.S. global influence. Part of that plan is to take over Taiwan and control everything in the South China Sea. U.S. policy continues to be, “assist Taiwan in maintaining it defensive capability.” Most China experts believe the threat of invasion of Taiwan is, “unabated, if not heightened.” 

WHAT CAN DESTROY US?

Cyberattack: Unlike the Cold war when we and NATO allies protected against a nuclear and/or ground attack in Europe by the Soviets, cyberattack is the most likely threat to the U.S. today. For example:  There are thirty substations in our nation’s electric grid operations. A Federal Energy Regulatory Commission report says, “Destroy nine interconnection substations and the entire US grid could be down for at least 18 months, probably longer.”  Within weeks tens of millions would perish; the U.S., as we know it today, would not survive. Nations capable of cyberattack; China, Russia, North Korea and Iran.

EMP:  An electromagnetic pulse, a huge burst of electromagnetic energy from a nuclear explosion high in the atmosphere, would instantly shutdown all transportation, computers, networks, electronic equipment, medical and communication systems.  We could not survive an EMP strike.  Nations capable of doing this; China, Russia, North Korea and (soon?), Iran.

HOW TO BUILD AND SUSTAIN AN EFFECTIVE DETERRENT FORCE:

Deterrence is both a state of mind and actual capability. Deterrence is developed and sustained by simultaneously working four initiatives:  1) Deterrent actions directly from our leaders, 2) By demonstrating capability, 3) Long-range strategic top-down planning and 4) From the bottom-up.

DETERRENCE DIRECTLY FROM OUR LEADERS, two examples:

During his tenure as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of staff, 1989-1993, General Colin Powell played a key deterrence card by inviting his Soviet counterpart, General Akhromeyev, Chief of the General staff of the Soviet Union’s armed forces, to visit the U.S.  First stop was an aircraft carrier. On the deck of the carrier were Navy enlisted sailors orchestrating a virtual ballet as aircraft were positioned, launched, recovered, clearing the deck for a continuous flow of aircraft; (I can testify that it is a remarkable thing to observe). When General Akhromeyev asked the carrier commander, a Naval captain, the average age of the those working the deck and making split-second decisions, the reply was, “probably about 21”, Akhromeyev turned to Gen Powell and said, “We cannot win.”

The final stop on the tour was the U.S. Army National Training Center in the California desert where they observed an ongoing battle between a Soviet tank regiment with actual Soviet equipment manned with U.S. soldiers and commanders using Soviet tactics, techniques and procedures against a U.S. armored brigade.  General Powell explained that all of our heavy forces regularly rotate to the National Training Center to train.  He further explained the when this type of training was initiated some years earlier the Soviet force always won; but no more, now we never lose. Deterrence in action.

Second example: Speaking before the UN General Assembly, September 2017, the North Korean foreign minister warned that a nuclear strike against the U.S. mainland is “inevitable.” North Korea, with an estimated 20-40 nuclear weapons, was actively engaged in testing nuclear weapons, long-range missiles and submarine-launched missiles.  Are they capable of attacking the US?  Yes. Did President Trump send representatives to a meeting of officials from both sides to some off-site location to discuss NK aggressive talk?  No, President Trump personally traveled to Asia three times to meet one-on-one with Kim Jong-Un.  There are no official releases of their private conversations but here is one possible scenario.  We have seen pictures of Kim at his sea-side retreat riding his big white stallion.  President Trump might have passed an eight-by-ten, close-up photo with a recent date/time stamp of Kim out riding.  Trump may have added verbally, Kim, we know where you are 24/7 and can reach out to you in many ways with a moment’s notice. The nuclear and long-range missile testing stopped. Deterrence, up close and personal.

DETERRENCE BY DEMONSTRATING CAPABILITY:

The U.S. has the greatest capability for world-wide force-projection.  For example, the world watched in awe in 1990 as the U.S. deployed an overwhelming heavy force to the Gulf War and, in two days of fighting, defeated Iraqi forces which had invaded Kuwait.  That remarkable action did not go unnoticed by our friends and potential enemys.

DETERRENCE RESULTING FROM LONG-RANGE STRATEGIC TOP-DOWN PLANNING:

The Executive and Legislative branches of government need to constantly encourage and task the private sector to lead the world in development of the most lethal and effective offensive and defensive warfighting systems.  Hypersonic missiles and the defense thereof represent the latest high-tech military systems. 

Hypersonic weapons fly at speeds of at least Mach 5 and are highly maneuverable and able to change course during flight; capabilities that gives any country a considerable advantage, because such weapons can evade just about any defense system currently in use.

The U.S. posture on Hypersonic weapons, as explained by General John Hyden, former vice chairman of the Joint chiefs of Staff in 2020, “It doesn’t matter what the threat is; if you can’t see it, you can’t defend against it. We don’t have any defense that could deny the deployment of such a weapon against us. Our defense is deterrent capability.”  U.S. defense officials call hypersonic weapons, “A game changer.”

The U.S. does not currently have a defense against Chinese and Russian hypersonic weapons. 

CREATE AND SUSTAIN A CREDIBLE DETERRENT FORCE FROM THE BOTTOM-UP:

The Army always has been and always will be a product of America.  Those entering come from every background, every community and even some with questionable alliances with radical groups such as white supremacists; but they all have one thing in common, they volunteered and, like it or not, they are going to be brain-washed and indoctrinated.

Day one: At the end of that first day in the Army they all have the same hair style, that is, no hair, and they all are dressed alike; there is a reason what soldiers wear is called a “uniform.”

Many will arrive with a chip on their shoulder based on their upbringing, education, talent, physical prowess etc.  But that chip gets knocked off very quickly by a drill instructor who has been especially selected and trained based on his or her abilities to read people and indoctrinate/train them.  It’s not a complex formula, just “tear them down and build them all over again.”

Day two: they begin to understand that their life in the Army will revolve around two concepts.  One is the mission and secondly, above all else, you are responsible for the person on your right and left.  Soon it begins to sink in that if I am responsible for those on my right and left, that means they are also responsible for me.  One day it’s a white guy, perhaps the next day it’s a black gal.  Hmmm, “interesting concept”, they say to themselves, “someone always has my back, I’m not alone, this is my team.”

From day-three on until their enlistment is completed or they are retiring from service as a professional soldier, they will understand that they are expected to stand out.  They are expected to be all they can be.  They will not be judged, positively or negatively by the color of their skin.  They will understand that the best and the brightest will move up the ranks and become their leaders. They understand that personal and professional accountability, trust and respect are the underpinnings of everything, everyone, every day; understand it, live it, expect it, respect it. Meritocracy is the norm, it’s their new life. 

Yes, the U.S. military has always believed in President Biden’s consistent assertion that Americans should be guided by, “equity, diversity and inclusion.”  But, and this is a big but, to soldiers, “equity” is everyone believing they can be all they can be. “Diversity” is the freedom to improvise and innovate at the point of execution.  “Inclusion” is being part of a team so steeped in trust and respect that they believe they cannot and will not fail.  

National deterrence begins with these individual service members believing in themselves, believing in their teammates, believing in their leaders and believing they can kick-ass anywhere in the world. 

 There is only one overriding standard for military capability: lethality.

CONCLUSIONS:

We are more vulnerable than ever in our history and much more today than just two years ago.  What causes a nation to become vulnerable?  In a word, weakness; either real or perceived and sometimes perception is more dangerous than reality.

August 14-16, 2021 has already become one of the “defining moments” in the history of this great country.  While Afghanistan provincial capitals were falling to the Taliban, on average two per day, President Biden flew away to begin his vacation.  As the situation deteriorated, we were repeatedly told by White House staff that the president was in “constant contact with his principals.” Not true. In this context, “contact” would be in the situation room with the president and senior subordinates interchanging ideas, making decisions and issuing orders.

With thousands of American civilians in the grip of Taliban soldiers, Biden returned to the White House to deliver a prepared script telling us that his decisions have been correct.  Following his speech, having generated more questions than answers, he literally and figuratively turned his back on America and the media and exited stage left returning to his helicopter to resume his vacation.  An “F” in leadership 101 observed around the world.

By August, 2021, our deterrence, built up over decades, was fading.  Trust and respect by our allies were in question.  Fear and respect by our enemies was in short supply.  The Afghanistan debacle viewed live around the world and described by Biden as an “extraordinary success” was the final nail in our deterrence coffin. 

The American people and our allies want to know who is pulling the strings on our marionette Commander in Chief; Obama, Valerie Jerrett, Susan Rice, Chief of Staff Ron Klain, national Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, VP Harris or all of the above?  When everyone is in charge, no one is in charge. Our enemies see America in free-fall and they will likely test us while we are most vulnerable.

BOTTOM LINE:

What goes on in the U.S. is carefully watched around the world. Our allies and enemies, look at our Commander in Chief and assess his leadership, judgment, cooperation.  What have they observed in the last 16 months?

The U.S. became the envy of the world when we became energy independent.  They saw the new president destroy that with the stroke of a pen four hours after being inaugurated with zero explanation or consultation.  

They saw him, again with the stroke of a pen, shut down ongoing efforts to secure our southern border from massive illegal immigration, drugs, criminals, sex traffickers, gang members and terrorists and thereby creating an open border situation and threatening national security.

They listened to him take a simple opposing campaign slogan, “Make America Great Again” MAGA, and label 70 million adult Americans who voted against him, “The MAGA crowd is the most extreme political organization that’s existed in recent American history.” Are our friends wondering about his judgement and rationale?  Yes, they are.

Our enemies watched North Korea challenge the new president immediately after taking office by resuming missile and nuclear testing. Biden’s reaction? Zero. Game on, its now open season against the U.S. by those who openly express a desire to see our complete collapse.

Our closest allies carefully observed how Biden would interact with our strongest long-time ally in the Middle East, Israel. Biden’s ignoring Israel is not setting well. 

Our allies and enemies have watched in awe as Biden has lifted sanctions from Iran thus creating their emboldened support for world terrorism and disruption in the fragile Middle East.  Our former allies are asking, “When will I get thrown under the preverbal bus?”

For the first time in my memory, important leaders in the world, such as Saudi Arabia, U.A.E and Russia, have refused to take Biden’s phone calls. Is that lost on the remainder of the world?  Not for a second. Respect or lack thereof.

Our friends watched in horror as Biden, again without consultation, lifted the “international terrorist organization” label from the Houthis in Yemen as they continue, with Iran’s backing and support, to attack our long-time friend and ally, Saudi Arabia.  

Just three months in office, Biden was tested by Putin when Russia conducted a limited (proof of concept) cyber attack on the U.S. by shutting down a fuel pipeline servicing much of the mid-east coast. The U.S. responded a month later when Biden and Putin met briefly at a G7 conference in Switzerland. Biden’s response was to provide Putin a list of 16 critical infrastructure targets that, “should be off-limits to attack, period, by cyber or any other means.”  Can you just imagine Putin telling that story to his senior staff back in the Kremlin?

To be “the leader of the free world” Biden must earn the respect and trust of the American people and our allies while also being respected, if not feared, by our enemies. Respect and trust must be earned by actions and deeds. That is phase 1 of deterrence, not some cheap sound-bite like, “America is back.”

FINAL THOUGHT:

We are vulnerable because our deterrent posture has been shattered.  Our friends no longer respect or trust us and our enemies no longer fear us; aka, “The perfect storm.”

 Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO EXECUTION, a book for leaders, and a new book, May 2022, FIX THE SYSTEMS, TRANSFORM AMERICA and a columnist for THE PILOT, a national award-winning local newspaper in Southern Pines, NC as well as the author of a blog, WeThePeopleSpeaking.com.