September, 2017, the North Korea foreign minister, speaking, for Kim Jong-un before the United Nations, declared to the world that a North Korean nuclear strike against a U.S. city is “inevitable.” Should we believe him? Is it even possible?
Who should lead the investigation? If the issue is one of paramount national security and the safety of all Americans should the President be personally involved? Of course, he should and that is exactly what President Trump did; he got up-close-and-personal with Kim.
Nine months after the North Korean declaration at the UN, President Trump was able to set up the first one-on-one meeting in Singapore with Kim Jong-un June, 2018. They met again in Hanoi Viet Nam, February, 2019. and a brief third meeting at the North/South Korea DMZ in June 2019.
Were the meetings the standard large conference table setting with the leaders faced off across the table and aides flanking each leader and all with an agenda sheet in front of them? No, for the most part they met one-on-one for secret unrecorded talks.
What would have been President Trump’s objective? In a word, deterrence; respect for our capabilities and a belief that we would never initiate military action against North Korea but if they initiated military force we would immediately and totally destroy him and his country. It’s not called negotiation, it called MAD mutually assured destruction. It works. We survived decades of the Cold War faced off against the Soviet Union with each side believing in MAD.
For the most part, the Trump/Kim meetings were secret but one scenario might have gone something like this: President Trump could have casually showed Kim a glossy 8×10 close-up color photo of Kim riding his big white horse at his vacation retreat at which time Trump would have looked him in the eye and said, we know where you are and how to reach out to you 24/7, now let’s chat about all of your missile and weapons testing and your plan to nuke one of my cities. Deterrence is not bragging; it has to be real and the delivery has to be from someone the recipient believes and/or fears.
2021: Predictably, with Trump on the way out, Kim needed to test the resolve of Biden with a full-court-press on missile testing. Various headlines and commentary over the past 12 months:
MISSILE TESTING: What follows is a sampling of the headlines and commentary over the past year.
January 2021, just before President Biden took office: “North Korea unveiled a new submarine-launched ballistic missile at a military parade, calling it the world’s most powerful weapon”.
March 2021: “North Korea unveiled a new submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM).”
March 2021: “North Korea carried out a launch of a new-type tactical guided projectile which it said was able to carry a payload of 2.5 tons; in theory, capable of carrying a nuclear warhead.”
May, 2021: “North Korea tests missile.”
September, 2021: “North Korea carried out tests of a new long-range cruise missile according to South Korea. The missiles are meant for a “strategic role.”
September 30, 2021, “North Korea fired a newly developed anti-aircraft missile.”
“The hypersonic missile tested September,2021, can travel at much faster speeds, and avoid radar detection for longer than ballistic missiles.”
January, 2022: “North Korea conducted more missile tests this month than all of 2021, an unprecedented pace of weapons testing.”
A senior Biden administration official: “North Korea tested a new intercontinental ballistic missile system in launches February 26 and March 4th, 2022, a serious escalation.”
March 8th,2022: “North Korea says it conducted another important test of a spy satellite.”
Kim has made it known that he is interested in developing satellite technology and experts believe he is using this as a guise in order to develop more advanced ICBM capability.
“North Korea’s ICBM focus is the Hwasong-17, their biggest missile which could potentially fly 15,000 KM (9,320 miles), far enough to strike anywhere in the U.S.” “It could carry a larger payload, potentially including multiple warheads.”
NUCLEAR TESTS:
June 20, 2021: “North Korea has been restoring demolished tunnels at its only known nuclear test site in the country’s northeast, South Korea’s military announced on Friday, in the latest indication that Pyongyang may be preparing for a future underground nuclear weapons test.”
The UN reported in 2021: “On the basis of satellite imagery, it appeared North Korea had restarted the Yongbyon reactor, thought to be its main source of weapons-grade plutonium.”
The International Atomic Energy Agency: “The nuclear program is going full steam ahead with work on plutonium separation, uranium enrichment and other activities.”
Wikipedia: “North Korea has a military nuclear weapons program and, as of early 2020, is estimated to have an arsenal of approximately 30 to 40 nuclear weapons and sufficient production of fissile material for six to seven nuclear weapons per year. North Korea has also stockpiled a significant quantity of chemical and biological weapons. In 2003, North Korea withdrew from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of nuclear weapons.”
U.S. RESPONSE TO ALL OF THIS:
“The U.S. Pacific Command in a statement condemned the launch and called on North Korea to refrain from further destabilizing acts.”
When asked if President Biden would sit down with Mr. Kim, the White House response was, “That is not his intention.”
BACKGROUND:
Everything about North Korea’s history that is relevant today has happened since 1948 under the Kim dynasty: In 1948 the Korean Peninsula was divided between a Soviet-backed government in the North and an American-backed government in the South. War broke out along the 38th parallel on June 25, 1950. Two days later, the United States officially entered the Korean War and U.S. forces have been stationed in the Republic of Korea for the past 72 years.
The Kim dynasty: Kim Il-sung, 1912-1994, came to power in the North in 1948 after the end of the Japanese rule in 1945. Kim Il-sung started the Korean War in 1950 in a failed attempt to reunify the Korean Peninsula.
Kim Il-sung ruled with a Stalinist hard-fisted manner until his death in 1994. His son Kim Jong-Il, 1941-2011, continued the torturous Kim-regime until his death in 2011 wherein more authoritarian rule by Kim Jong-un, born 1984, began.
The first take-away from the above three background paragraphs is that North Korea, with the Kim dynasty, has for 72 years viewed the United States as its enemy.
Secondly, the background begs the following questions: Did Kim Il-sung create North Korea’s nuclear program as a way to reach out to his long-time enemy, the United States? Has Kim Jong-un picked up the baton and created methods for delivery of nuclear weapons to the United States via ICBMs and/or Submarine-launched missiles?
What does Kim Jong-un have to fear? Will his big neighbors China and Russia invade? No, neither need a small, starving, strategically insignificant nation to take care of. Will Japan again invade the Korean Peninsula? No. Will the U.S. invade North Korea without provocation? No.
Understandably, North Korea feels the need for a strong defense against South Korea who admittedly would like to reunify Korea. To that end, does North Korea need to starve millions of their people in order to join the list of the world’s nuclear powers? No.
So, what motivates Kim Jong-un? Is he simply dutifully completing the scenario envisioned by his grandfather and father to finally defeat the United States? It is important to remember that the Korean War is not “over.”
In 1953 there was a cease fire followed by a signed armistice separating North and South Korea by a Demilitarized Zone which has resulted in the absence of armed conflict on the peninsula for the past 69 years. In retrospect, there are those who would say the U.S. should have taken the fight to the North, defeated them and ended up with a unified Korea. On the other hand, Communist China entered the war on behalf of Kim Il-sung in late 1951 with hundreds of thousands of Chinese troops augmenting the North Korean army, there-by changing the dynamic of the fight in two ways. First, the Chinese had an almost unlimited number of soldiers they could commit to the ground combat and secondly, the Chinese entry into the conflict created an open border with North Korea that the U.S. was unwilling or perhaps unable to close without starting World War III. The Korean “War” is not over; does Kim Jong-un simply see this as unfinished business?
Is Kim Jong-un crazy? Dr. S.D. Norrholm, Wayne State University, sees Kim Jong-un aligned psychologically with the likes of Adolf Hitler, Mao Zedong, Josef Stalin and Pol Pot. He writes, “Kim sees himself as a very special person, deserving of admiration and, consequently, has difficulty empathizing with the feelings and needs of others. He tends to show a pervasive pattern of grandiosity and is likely to behave with a vindictiveness observed in narcissistic personality disorder.”
Would this disorder account for the fact that Kim Jong-un is believed to have orchestrated the assassination, in 2017, of his half-brother, Kim Jong-nam; the eldest son of their father, Kim Jong-il? Additionally, it is widely reported, but unconfirmed, that in 2014, Kim Jong–un executed his uncle, Jang Song Thaek, the number two official in North Korea, and five of his closest aides by throwing them into a cage with 120 starving dogs.
Kim Jong-un’s leadership style is vindictive and void of empathy, some examples:
Of the five and one half million children, ages 1-14, an estimated 80%, 4.4 million, will be stunted due to malnutrition and lack of adequate health care. Plus, the U.S. State Department reported in 2020 that North Korea forces minors to perform, “the worst forms of child labor. Many aged 16 and 17 are enrolled in military-style youth construction brigades for 10-year periods suffering physical and psychological injuries, malnutrition, and exhaustion.
The North Korean deputy ambassador to London, who defected to South Korea in 2016 testified that, “North Korea is a huge slave society ruled by the Kim family.”
Just like the concentration camps during WW II, Kim Jong-un continuously sends political prisoners to the six camps around the country with an estimated 200,000 imprisoned, never to be released, inmates. All are subjected to 14-hour work days under horrible conditions and a starvation diet. It is believed that over 400,000 have died in these gulags.
Kim Il-song’s dictatorship, 1948-1994 is noteworthy by his hatred for the U.S. and the belief that the U.S. would attack North Korea and force reunification. By the early 1990’s experts say North Korea believed nuclear weapons would be the only way to one-up the U.S. Is it that conclusion that is driving Kim Jong-un’s development of nuclear delivery systems?
During a news conference, in response to a question concerning North Korea’s unprecedented missile testing schedule, Biden said, “We are consulting with our allies and partners and there will be responses if they choose to escalate, we will respond accordingly.” Well, Mr. President, if what they have been doing the past 12 months is not escalation, what is? Do they have to nuke one of our cities to get your attention?
Kim is the leader of a small, poor, relatively insignificant country but he wants to be viewed as a player on the world stage. He probably has Putin and Xi Jinping on his speed dial. President Trump traveled across the Pacific three times to meet with Kim. No matter the sobering news that President Trump delivered, in his mind Kim probably saw it as a major achievement. He became headline news around the world; what better way to feed his ego.
By the way, if the missile and nuclear testing are not enough of a threat, UN experts have reported that, “North Korea has developed increasingly sophisticated hacking capabilities.”
CONCLUSIONS:
Kim’s accelerated testing of weapons of mass destruction is alarming. We have already been warned in a most dramatic way when the North Korean foreign minister declared to the world that a nuclear strike against a U.S. city is “inevitable.” What is it about the word “inevitable” that the Biden administration does not understand when it is backed up with aggressive North Korean missile and nuclear activities over the past year?
Kim does not have to run for reelection, time is on his side; the Trump deterrent actions were just a temporary speed bump. Kim is moving forward with intent to do something. We better figure out what he sees as the end-state, now!
Biden is unable or at least unwilling to talk about our existing critical and difficult national security issues; an open border, record deaths from massive illegal drugs smuggled into the U.S., rampant lawlessness, forfeiture of energy independence. Given the potential outcome of a North Korean strike on the U.S., dealing with Kim Jong-un should be a priority national security issue.
The vulnerability meter has about pegged out for the U.S. over the last year. Our enemies, China, Russia, Iran, global terrorism and North Korea were all watching carefully as the Biden Administration stumbled through the pathetic Afghanistan withdrawal debacle. They have concluded that Biden, and by extension the U.S. as a whole, is weak. China has conducted threatening air and naval demonstrations towards Taiwan, Putin invades Ukraine, within the past month Iran fires rockets into the U.S. Army base in Erbil and our embassy in Iraq, our country may be loaded with terrorist cells who walked across our open border. Our deterrence is gone, our enemies no longer respect or fear us and are all acting out recklessly.
Kim’s legacy will never be about becoming an economic powerhouse like South Korea, a voice of reason in international affairs, a valued ally, a benevolent nation, intellectual accomplishments or inventions. He has one shot at making history and that is to finish what his father and grandfather envisioned, destruction of their arch enemy, the United States.
If Biden does act, it will begin with his standard statements about diplomacy this and diplomacy that and in the process accomplish nothing. There comes a time when “diplomacy” is an in-your-face meeting between two leaders. But because of Biden’s perceived weakness, the Wall Street Journal reports, “The Biden administration has attempted to conduct talks with North Korea but those efforts have been rebuffed.” Kim is in charge.
The title of this article, BIDEN’S NEXT CRISIS, does not have to come true. When faced with a serious problem there is always a choice, be proactive or do nothing. Ultimately, without taking proactive steps a leader will end up being reactive. In that state you are starting out behind the power-curve, trying to push the noodle up hill. While reacting you have forfeited any advantages you might have otherwise had.
Biden has clearly demonstrated that he and his administration are incapable of recognizing looming national security issues while being singularly focused on COVID and masking policy. For example, last summer dismissing inflation as just a temporary economic bump in the road, having no concept of the geopolitical and strategic importance of giving away our energy independence, claiming the Afghanistan withdrawal was an “extraordinary success,” alienating our Middle East allies with a knee-jerk decision to take Yemen’s Houthi terrorists off the terrorist list and cancel military sales to Saudi Arabia, impowering Iran economically enabling them to better support world terrorism, ignoring our long-time Middle East ally, Israel, embarrassing the U.S. by begging the Middle East to increase oil production, and ending up buying from the likes of Russia and Venezuela. It is an unprecedented list of failures in one year, with long-tern national security ramifications. This summary of failures only serves to demonstrate the potential ramifications of also not focusing on North Korea as they ramp up their strategic offensive capabilities.
RECOMMENDATION: Take these three actions,
ONE: Make sure this message is delivered to Kim Jong-un.
Date: April xx, 2022
To: Kim Jong-un
Subject: Proposed Meeting
September, 2017, your foreign minister, Ri Yong Ho, speaking before the United Nations, declared to the world that a North Korean nuclear strike against a U.S. city is “inevitable.” Given your accelerated missile, submarine and nuclear testing schedule over the past 12 months, we have no alternative but to conclude that your foreign minister’s statement clearly articulates your intensions.
I will arrive in South Korea on April xx, 2022, and intend to meet with you the following day at the North/South Korea Demilitarized Zone facility to discuss the relationship between our two nations from that day forward.
I you decline to attend, we are prepared to immediately implement a sanction that will completely shut down your economy. At that time, I will inform you of a second opportunity for the two of us to meet. Your failure to comply a second time will have left us with only one alternative and that will be a massive preemptive strike to destroy all of your strategic offensive capabilities; missiles, launch facilities and naval forces.
President Biden.
Mr. President, your intent at that meeting is to depart with an assurance that the two of you have reached a clear understanding of MAD, mutual assured destruction. MAD is a proven concept that got the free world safely through the decades of the Cold War with the Soviet Union).
TWO: Tell Commander in Chief, Pacific Region, to begin planning for a naval blockade of all shipping in and out of North Korean ports and be prepared to keep it in-force until all North Korean missiles, submarines and launch facilities have been shut down and disassembled. Shipping is the life-blood for North Korea and they could be severely crippled in a few weeks time. Additionally, begin planning for the preemptive strike.
THREE: Address the American people on this subject using the above narrative as an outline for the speechwriters. Why? I suspect 99.99% of Americans do not know about the “inevitable nuclear strike” threat and 90% have not tuned in to North Korea’s strategic-strike buildup over the past year. Declassify and release to the media satellite imagery of Kim’s preparations.
Final thought: North Korea will be BIDENS NEXT CRISIS if the president does not get proactive and act. But, unlike all the other critical issues and self-inflicted wounds he has imposed on to the American people, this one could be a complete game-changer if he fails to get ahead of the crisis.
Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO EXECUTION, a book for leaders, a columnist for THE PILOT, a national award-winning local newspaper in Southern Pines, NC and the author of a blog, WeThePeopleSpeaking.com.