Author: admin

On 16 August 2022, President Biden signed into law a $740 billion bill that focused on climate, health care and tax increases and was called the Inflation Reduction Act and oh-by-the-way provides an extra $800 billion to the IRS to hire 87,000 new agents. Only in Washington could they product anything that dumb.

The “dumb” part is that this is another one of the mega-bills, 750 pages, that no one read before they voted on it.  If the $80 billion for 87,000 new IRS agents had been a stand-alone bill, it would have had to pass muster in Congressional committees in both the House and the Senate with expert testimony and we-the-people would have known what was coming, been informed of the pros and cons and been able to dial in to our Congressional Delegations. But no, that makes too much sense.  Now it’s the law and I have not heard anyone who believes there is anything positive about adding 87,000 agents to the current IRS force of about 90,000.  “As government expands, liberty contracts.” President Reagan. So, what can we do about it?

First, let’s take a look at how the IRS is doing these days?  The Wall Street Journal and various other open sources recently shed some light on their capabilities or lack thereof:  Here is a summary of some reports from the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration: 

Last year the IRS answered only about 10% of taxpayer calls.

There is a backlog of 17 million unprocessed tax returns.

$19 billion, 28%, of earned-income tax credit payments in FY 21 were “improper.”

67,000 claims, $15.6 billion, for low-income housing tax credit from 2015 to 2019 “lacked or did not match supporting documentation due to reporting errors.”

A May 2022, audit found that 26%, $1.9 billion, of its American opportunity tax credits for education expenses were improper in FY 2021.

27%, $541 million, of its net premium tax credits (Obamacare) were improper in FY 2019

May, 2022 audit,13%, $5.2 billion of its enhanced child tax credit payments were improper.

September, 2020, the IRS issued 89,338 notices to taxpayers insisting that balances were owed even though the taxes were not actually due.

February, 2022, audit found the IRS department responsible for ensuring retirement plan tax compliance suffered a 23% decline in the quality of its examinations from 2018 to 2020,

In 2010 the Congress passed the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act to identify wealthy Americans using undisclosed foreign accounts. The intent was to raise $9 billion in revenue by 2020. An April 2022 audit showed the IRS has spent $574 million to implement the law and had found only $14 million in revenue. STOP, and reread those last two sentences that deal with intent and results. Amazing!

In 2010 the IRS began a program to examine returns from “high income” individuals (those with incomes of over $200,000). But from FY 2015-2017, 73% of the targeted returns were for those earning less than $200,000. Again, intent and results mismatch, aka gross mismanagement with little or no leader oversight.

In the past seven months the Treasury Inspector General has issued damaging reports on IRS mismanagement of its partial-payment program for delinquent taxpayers, for its auditing of partnerships and its struggle to handle internal employee misconduct.

In those twelve short pieces of information, we see a clear picture of an organization in chaos with low standards, ingrained mismanagement and little or no viable leadership. In spite of this reality, Congressional Democrats and the president believe it is a good idea to spend $80 billion, that we don’t have, to double the size and weaponize one of the most inept, inefficient departments in the government.

HAVE WE EVEN PROPERLY DEFINED THE IRS PROBLEM?

The most pathetic issue here is that the IRS’s day-to-day performance standards stem from a big-government, over-regulated, bloated bureaucracy. Is the IRS’s problem that they are short 87,000 employees? Of course not, but the Congress and the president continue to believe that every problem can be solved by throwing thousands of bureaucrats and billions of dollars at it.

What the Congress, at the encouragement of the Executive Branch, needs to do is define the base problem first.  Then, and only then, develop a specific plan to fix the problem. 

THE PROBLEM:

According to the Public Law 117-154 (23 June, 2022), the U.S. Tax Code is 6,871 pages. But when you include the federal tax regulations and the official tax guidance, it rises to approximately 75,000 pages.  That’s the problem.

HOW TO FIX THE PROBLEM:

First, how NOT to fix it.  Do not appoint a special commission to “fix” it by working their way through 75,000 pages adding, subtracting and rewording.  Doing so will probably result in an even worse 80,000-page document. 

Instead of trying to fix it, hit the delete button, all 75,000 pages, and start over with a clean sheet of paper.  Start out with a long-range strategic planning maxim; that is, begin at the end.  In this case define the dual end state factors first. After that, plan for the specific issues: how much tax, what types of tax, how are they divided up among taxpayers and who/how it is to be administered (IRS).

Dual end-states:  First is the alignment of overall annual government budgeted requirements with accurately projected revenue. The second is based on the assumption that few, if any, Americans can accurately articulate what the current Tax Code is about.  What we need to end up with is a new Tax Code that can be read in a few minutes and understood by every taxpayer in America.  Both are within the art of the possible as follows:  

NEW TAX CODE, CHAPTER ONE, INDIVIDUAL GROSS INCOME:

All taxes will be based on individual gross income. So. the first thing is to define exactly what constitutes individual gross income, how it is derived, how it is reported and how it can be verified.  Also begin with a threat of very harsh penalties for anyone who is caught hiding or misstating their gross income. Fear of going to jail is a powerful incentive.

CHAPTER TWO, TAX DEDUCTIONS:

The current 75,000 pages of tax Code/regulations undoubtedly contains hundreds of possible deductions. Therein lies a big part of the problem and requirs thousands of IRS employees to deal with it. 

Under this plan there is one and only one authorized deduction from personal gross income; charitable contributions. But the charities have to be real and operate under a strict set of standards in order to qualify.

The Bill, Hillary, and Chelsea Clinton Foundation’s tax return, 2014, provides a perfect example of a charity that would not qualify as tax deductions by donors.

In 2014 the Clinton Charitable Foundation total revenue (rounded numbers) was $178 million. From that, actual grants to charity amounted to about $5 million; THREE PER CENT.  Most of the contributions went for exorbitant salaries and expensive travel.

This Tax Code chapter must include standards for a charity to qualify for a tax deduction. For example, grants to charity must be at least 60% (or whatever the correct number should be) of charitable revenue for an organization to qualify.

Every charitable organization would be required to submit income and expenditures annually to the IRS and be subject to audits.  For each tax year the IRS would publish the list of qualifying charitable organizations to be cross-checked with individuals’ tax return deductions. This will guarantee every doner that their money is actually going to a worthy cause.  If the charity can’t pass the smell test and make the annual IRS list, they will quickly be out of business.

 CHAPTER THREE, CORPORATE TAX:

Let’s begin this discussion with a fact: corporations do not pay taxes, people pay taxes.  The so called “corporate tax” is, to the corporation, just another cost of producing a product.  The “tax” is no different than the cost of raw materials, salaries, marketing, etc.  The money that a corporation pays to the government in taxes, has already been passed on to workers (lower wages) and customers (price of the product). 

So, let’s do away with all that nonsense and the hundreds of millions of dollars that businesses spend on accountants and lawyers to compute their tax returns.

Under this plan, there will be no corporate taxes.  There is another way, a more sensible way, to turn corporate income into government tax revenue.

Let’s say for example that General Motors has a very good year.  As a result, they might raise wages and salaries, hire a few hundred new employees, build a new plant (future wages/salaries), pay more/higher bonuses to their top performers, and pay higher dividends to stockholders.  All of those corporate actions will translate into higher individual gross personal income for thousands of tax payers. Bottom line, the government gets their revenue, the corporations’ products become more competitive in the global marketplace and the gross domestic product goes up. 

Therefore, under this new tax plan “corporate tax’ gets explained in a sentence (no corporate tax) instead of thousands of pages of tax regulations. And, perhaps more importantly, corporate tax will no longer be a political yoyo under a tax-and-spend administration. 

Taking taxes off the table for businesses and corporations has many positive residual effects.  As an example, in 2017 President Trump cut corporate taxes from 35% (highest in the world) to 21%.  Economists predicted one of the positive delayed impacts would actually be increased tax revenue rather that reduced federal income. They were correct because cutting corporate taxes resulted in higher wages, hiring went up, businesses expanded and generally the entire economy grew and pushed government revenue to the highest levels in history.

Taking corporate taxes to zero will cause an economic revolution: overseas manufacturing will come back to the U.S., we will be less dependent on China, wages will go up, unemployment down, those who can work will be forced off the welfare rolls, GDP will increase and overall government revenue will shoot up.

CHAPTER 4, CAPITAL GAINS TAX:

Capital Gains Tax is currently a separate tax that is levied on profits an investor realizes when he/she sells a capital asset for a price that is higher than the purchase price.

As of 2021, the long-term capital gains tax is typically either 0%, 15% or 20% depending upon your tax bracket.

Under the new Tax Code there will no longer be a separate tax on capital gains.  If you invest $10,000 and can prove it and then sell it for $15,000 at a later date, that is simply a $5,000 addition to that year’s gross income that may or may not put you in a higher tax bracket. 

Capital losses occur when an investment is sold for less than its original purchase price. Under the new Tax Code this will have zero bearing on your taxes.  Why should you get a tax break for making a bad decision and losing money? As they say, “Life is hard and then you die.”  Deal with it.

This simplified formula for Capital Gains Taxes also does away with the Biden-proposed nonsense of taxing Capital Gains on investments that have not yet been sold.

CHAPTER 5, DEATH TAX, aka Estate or Inheritance Tax: 

Death taxes are the most morally corrupt initiative in our government.  Therefore, in the new Tax Code there will be no such thing as a Death/Estate/Inheritance Tax.

Death Tax is a tax on your right (even though you are now deceased) to transfer everything you own at the time of your death.

The Death Tax habitually hits rural America especially hard.  Farmers and ranchers generally fall into an economic category of being, “land rich and cash poor.”  Agricultural land has almost always increased in value over time; that’s the good news (land rich).  The problem with agri-business is that there is little or no consistency in profitability from year to year.  Perhaps last year’s harvest put a pile of money in the bank. But this year a 30-minute violent hail storm will cut your soybean yield by 50%. Right now, in Southeast U.S., a sustained drought has cut the 2022 projected cotton harvest by 50%.  A year ago, no farmers were anticipating that the anhydrous ammonia fertilizer they would need in 2022 would go up by $86,000 for 1000 acres of crop, (cash poor).

So, Mom and Dad pass away and the two kids now own the farm; a farm they love, where they labored as youngsters and where their children might someday want to farm.  But both middle-income kids have a house mortgage, car payments, some student debt and a couple overdue credit card payments.  No way they can dig up a few hundred thousand dollars to pay the Death Tax. They have no choice; they have to sell.

This is unamerican government-greed insanity.  Under this proposed Tax Code, you inherit it, you own it; period.  Do what you want with it, not what the damned government tells you what you must do. 

CHAPTER SIX, TAX BRACKETS:

The concept of operations for this plan is to divide personal gross income into many brackets ranging from zero to billions of dollars. That could end up to be a lot of pages depending on how small each bracket is.  The good news is that the individual taxpayer only has to refer to one of those pages; the one that lists the tax rate for their particular gross income.

The brackets would be “progressive” but also careful to not disincentivize a taxpayer.  True story:  An acquaintance of mine is a successful upper-level executive in France.  She told me that upon getting a promotion resulting in greater responsibility and longer working hours, the salary increase put her into a new/higher tax bracket; the result, her net take-home pay actually was less than before the promotion.

THE TAX CODE MODEL (with illustrative numbers)

First, define the gross income brackets. For example,

-Zero to $100,000 in increments of 25K.

-100K to one million, increments of 100K.

-One mil to 10 mil, increments of one million.

-10 mil to 20 mil, increments of two million.

-20 mil to 100 mil, increments of 10 million.

-100 to one billion, increments of 100 million.

-Remaining increments of $500 million each.

That’s about 45 brackets but the number is immaterial to the Tax Code model; it could be more or less refined than that.

Secondly, determine the number of taxpayers in each bracket.  After the first year under the new Tax Code that will be easier to do and should be updated every year.

Third, begin refining the first model with a working end state number; that is a budget of $4 trillion.  Then beginning at $25K gross income (zero to $25K is tax rate zero) determine a common tax rate, for example, 7.28%, that, applied to every taxpayer, will get you to the $4 trillion end state.

An alternative model would consist of progressive rates; for example, 7.28% for the second bracket, $25K to $50K. Then adjust the rate upward by one half % for each bracket.  Using the above brackets, the tax rate for $1 million gross income would be 12.78% etc. and the rate for $1 billion gross income would be 28,78%.

With an agreed-to set of brackets, tax rates per bracket and the number of taxpayers per bracket the model is set and could literally spit out an updated Tax Code in seconds or minutes. 

So, the president submits his budget to Congress the first Monday in February. February-September Congress works to publish a final Congressional Budget Resolution by 30 September.  Let’s say the budget is $4.436 trillion beginning the fiscal year on 1 October. 

Put that end-state budget number into the Tax Code model and work backwards from $4.436 trillion to determine the exact tax rate for every taxpayer in the country for the following year.  

Today taxation is a complete mystery to almost every taxpayer. We all live with the “April surprise” when our tax accountant tells us how much we owe or will get as a refund.  No more April surprises.  Now the family can sit down at the kitchen table, work their annual family budget and know exactly what their tax burden will be.

Monthly withholding taxes should result in a consistent flow of revenue to the government and rarely should there be an April surprise tax due or a refund.  That should reduce the IRS personnel requirement by tens of thousands.

Remember when President Trump reduced taxes for everyone and the Democrats all called it “A tax cut for the wealthy”; those days would be over with total tax obligation transparency.

BACK TO THE IRS:

The “problems” with the IRS is not that they  don’t want to do a good job.  It is also not that they are short 87,000 employees.  The problem is the ridiculous 75,000-page tax system.  Fix the system, transform America. Perhaps the IRS, under this system may only need a few thousand folks; certainly not the current 90,000 or the requirement for 87,000 new hires.

BALANCED BUDGET:

Fixing the IRS should not be a stand-alone effort.  It can also present an opportunity to pass a Balanced-Budget Amendment.  In just the past fourteen years the national debt has increased from $10 to $30 trillion and there is no relief in sight. The total transparency of tax and revenue with this new tax plan will provide the opportunity to fix our current deficit spending mania. 

Congress, whatever party is in power, has clearly demonstrated they do not have the discipline to control spending.  We do not have a revenue problem; we have a spending problem.  A Balanced-Budget Amendment to the U.S. Constitution would constrain total government spending to be less than or equal to total tax collections. Given Congress’ predilections towards annual deficit spending, it is the only way we can get our national debt under control. 

REDUCE SPENDING:

There could be a snowball effect to this effort to fix the IRS and the tax system. It could cause us to look at the size of the entire government bureaucracy and where the bloated government budget comes from. 

There are tens or thousands of government regulations on the books that are a drag on the economy, no longer applicable or downright damaging. The fact is that every regulation has to be administered by some branch or division within the government (hence the bloated bureaucracy) and each one has an annual budget.  The sum of all spending requests become the president’s annual budget to Congress.

FYI in a recently published book, Fix the Systems, Transform America, Chapter 4,there is a detailed plan to clean out the Executive Branch bureaucracy and drastically reduce needless government spending.

CONCLUSIONS: 

This essay began with the assertion that President Biden’s new law which provides an extra $80 billion to the IRS to hire 87,000 new IRS agents is beyond ridiculous and completely unnecessary. 

But, in a larger sense, the new law is illustrative of the way our government does business; one nit-pick at a time and by throwing billions of taxpayer dollars at it. They appear unable and/or unwilling to look at the larger picture and approach problem-solving by fixing the system in its entirety.

Alignment of the government’s calendar (fiscal-year budgeting and calendar-year taxing) would be a helpful step. 

Reality tells me a simplified, understandable, transparent tax system as described above will probably never see the light of day. Two reasons; the lobbyists representing lawyers and accountants will go crazy and shoot it down. Also consider that 43% of members of Congress are lawyers.  

BOTTOM LINE:

If our great nation is to survive, we-the-people have to speak up and be heard.  If you agree with the above concept of operations, please send a copy to your Congressional Delegation.

We-the-people can dream and plan. Perhaps a

future tax return could simply consist of

a post card and a check.

Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO EXECUTION, a book for leaders, and a new book May 2022, FIX THE SYSTEMS, TRANSFORM AMERICA as well as the author of a blog WeThePeopleSpeaking.com.

What is the “state” of the union today? No, not in the sense of the requirement for the president to periodically apprise the Congress of the state of the union, but rather our individual and collective state of mind about the foundational elements of our society.  Are the Constitutional underpinnings alive and well, or are they being threatened or are they in some cases already gone? Liberty, and will, need to be defined, explored, investigated, discussed and protected.  To ignore the discussion is to put them in jeopardy.

First, we need to put liberty in the context of mankind’s history. 

Throughout human history there have been perhaps thousands of, at least semi-organized, human groupings of varying types and sizes; family groups, stand-alone tribes, groupings of tribes, kingdoms, city-states, individual nations, grouped nations (USSR), etc.  One thing they all have had in common is that some ONE was in charge of the grouping.  ONE person held the power. ONE person decided what was best for all others.

U.S. BACKGROUND:

The United States of America was founded on July 4, 1776.  “Founded” means that it was declared independent from the Kingdom of Great Britain.  But it would take another fifteen years to get it all sorted out. 

Having fought and won the Revolutionary War, 1783, popular sentiment was decisive, the American people wanted something very different from the despotic English monarchy. They wanted strong guarantees that the new government would not trample on their newly won freedoms of speech, press, religion and upon their right to be free from warrantless searches and seizures.

In May of 1787, delegates from the 13 states convened the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia to draft the Constitution.   They began the debate with a we-the-people theory based on a lot of assumptions that they believed were within the art of the possible. From that they developed a concept of operations that ended up being one of the greatest stand-alone documents for self-government in the history of mankind, the U.S. Constitution, four pages long.

The majority of the text of the Constitution is boiler-plate about the three branches of government and how they are to function.  The Constitutional underpinnings are codified in the 50-word preamble. 

“We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America”  There it is, “secure the blessings of liberty” the essence of the overall intent of the founders that set the stage for something revolutionary that had not heretofore existed for humankind summed up in one word, liberty.

The Constitution was ratified, June 1788.

Liberty, we say it every time we put our hand over our heart and pledge allegiance to, “….. one nation under God with liberty and justice for all.”  

LIBERTY, Oxford dictionary: “The state of being free within society from oppressive restrictions imposed by authority on one’s way of life, behavior, or political views”.  Liberty is being able to exercise a freedom, to take an action, or even think a certain way without being prevented from doing so, and without being forced to do so. Liberty is the linchpin for what we-the-people have always believed in and depended on. Liberty is a state of mind.

The Constitution was remarkable but not yet perfect.  For one, it did not contain a “bill” of individual rights. It specified what the government could do but did not say what it could not do. It would take four more years of intense debate before the new government’s form would be resolved.

Essentially the debate was over the breadth and depth of authority the federal government would have or not have. Thomas Jefferson led the debate with: “A bill of rights is what the people are entitled to against every government on earth, general or particular, and what no just government should refuse or rest on inference.”

The nation’s founders believed that containing the government’s power and protecting liberty was their most important task.  From that came the 10^th Amendment: “The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or the people.”  From Jefferson’s inspiring argument, the American Bill of Rights, drafted by James Madison, was adopted in 1791, becoming the Constitution’s first ten amendments and the law of the land. 

Like no other nation, liberty is the cornerstone of our foundation. But having liberty is not the end-all be-all.  What we do with liberty is what counts.  What we have experienced in America since the passage of the 10^th Amendment is the application of liberty throughout every element of our society through personal and collective will.

Will, defined: “Unwavering strength to carry out one’s own wishes, decisions or plans.” Individual and hence collective will power, competitive spirit, not to be denied ideology, driven to be-all-you-can-be.  Will is a force in and of itself and has made the United States of America the greatest nation on earth.

Stop for a moment and contemplate the thousands of Americans who, in the 19^th century loaded all of their possessions into a covered wagon and set out across a thousand miles of desert and mountains to start a new life.  Undaunted personal will to succeed!

In the 1930s we watched the Axis Powers, Germany, Italy and Japan, ignite World War II.   Who would have believed that the U.S. would produce 300,000 combat aircraft and 1,200 major combatant ships, including 99 aircraft carriers by the end of WWII and fight in two theaters of war 3000 miles apart.  Unprecedented collective will to win not only by those on the front lines but also by the millions of “Rosy-the-riveters” who put the military gear together.

SMALL BUSINESSES:  A “small business” is officially defined as one with fewer than 500 employees although the majority have less than 100.  There are over 32 million small businesses in the U.S. representing 99% of all businesses.  Small businesses employ over 61 million Americans, 47% of the U.S. workforce. Small businesses are the heart and soul of the U.S. economy.  The American entrepreneurial spirit exists because of the liberty provided by the Constitution and the individual will to grow something and be successful.

The will to win has emboldened ordinary Americans to accomplish extraordinary results for themselves and for others since our Founding Fathers made it all possible.

BUT, ARE WE LOSING IT?  Are political and social forces today undermining our liberty?  Are these forces systematically destroying individual and collective will to move forward and succeed? What will be the consequences and long-term ramifications?

LIBERTY AND WILL, SOME DISTURBING INDICATORS:

SOCIAL MEDIA:

In the past few years, social media platforms have become the go-to medium for Americans to voice political and social opinions. The problem that has too-often surfaced is that those monitoring social media are capable of and have been depriving many Americans of their First Amendment right of free speech. It would be nice to know exactly who is doing it and why but what is most disconcerting is that it is being condoned by powerful political operatives who see it as an advantage to silence political opponents in particular and the public in general if they are of a different political persuasion.  They justify it by calling free speech misinformation. Elon Musk recently summed it up best by saying, “Given that Twitter serves as the de facto public town square, failing to adhere to free speech principles fundamentally undermines democracy.”  Silencing free speech is all about control and it is very dangerous. It strikes at the heart of liberty.

MASS MEDIA:

TV, radio and printed media have historically performed a vital role in society; sometimes referred to as the Fourth Estate. They have in the past been characterized as one of the pillars of democracy that bind our society together. Mass media can be the watchdog of elected officials, our rights and our liberty.  

Unfortunately, the role of the Fourth Estate has changed. Mass media has become so politicized their believability is constantly in question as they are unlikely to present all the news and opposing viewpoints. The greatest power of the mass media is the power to ignore.

What does that have to do with liberty?  Today’s liberal Democrats and Progressives believe in big government, power and control over the citizenry and they have near total support from mass media. Too much government, too much power in the hands of one political party, supported by most mass media and too much control over what we-the-people can do and say is infringing dangerously on our liberty.

FBI AND THE JUSTICE DEPARTMENT:

Politization of the FBI and Justice Department has been increasingly evident over the past few years and has become front and center with the Biden administration.  On day-one, 20 January 2021, President Biden issued an Executive Order lamenting America’s “systemic racism.” The order called for the administration to pursue “an ambitious whole-of-government equity agenda.” It is no secret that the target of the ridiculous “systemic racism” charge was the whole of the Trump supporter population; about 73.6 million of us.

Then came nation-wide Democrat support for teaching critical race theory to kids of all ages in schools across the nation with teachers making students stand in privilege circles, dividing them into categories of “oppressor” and oppressed” based solely on skin color and ethnicity. Parents across the nation loudly exercised their Constitutional right to free speech during school board meetings objecting to the radical, unfounded and dangerous CRT curriculum.

This led the National School Board Association to advise President Biden, in writhing, that, “America’s public schools and its education leaders are under an immediate threat” and imploring Biden to deploy the Justice Department, the FBI, Homeland Security and the National Threat Assessment Center to combat this supposed scourge. The letter described complaining parents as “extremist hate organizations”, aka domestic terrorists.

What followed was Attorney General Garland’s memo, October 4, 2021 to FBI Director Christopher Wray and all 93 U.S. Attorneys, stating that the Justice Department would shortly be announcing “a series of measures designed to address the rise in criminal conduct directed toward school personnel” and directed addressees to convene meetings with local officials to “open lines of communication for threat reporting, assessment and response.”

Snowball effect: The Democrats support a racially divisive school curriculum, the president gets involved, he has already primed the Executive Branch to battle by charging “systemic racism”, the Justice Department over-reacts and we end up with the strength of the Federal Government and its tentacles reaching into millions of households in a national effort to restrict free speech; all of this vigorously supported by the majority of mass media.

There are about 180 million American adults with an under-18 years of age child in the household.  The majority of parents want to be a player in their child’s education.  With the feds involved through intimidation at the local school board level, how willing are the parents to remain engaged, exercising free speech?  What choices do they have?

This scenario is real, it just happened; a perfect-storm example of the cornerstone of the Constitution, liberty, under attack by a too-big government with too much power exercising massive control through intimidation.  And what did we do about it?  Nothing yet, but we can and should on November 8^th.

That’s an example of how easy it is for important things like freedom of speech to go south. Big government, power and control is like a cancer on society that if unattended will spread and destroy all that has made this the greatest nation on earth.  Yes, it can happen to us because it is happening right now before our eyes. Wake the hell up America; it’s a simple equation.

REGULATIONS AND BLOATED BUREAUCRACIES:

In 2021 there were 4,283,079 federal employees. How did it get so big?  There is a corollary between regulations imposed and those administering them.  For example, between 1995 and 2016 there were a total of 88,899 federal rules and regulation on the books. Some group of federal employees have to administer those regulations; hence the rise of a national, bloated, sometimes out of control bureaucracy. Massive government regulation is stealth government control and a stealth tax on all Americans.

Complicating the issue is that as new regulations pile on, old regulations rarely go away and neither does the bureaucracy supporting them.  It’s called “regulatory accumulation”.  The bottom line with regulations and bureaucracies is that they tend to distort business investment, limit innovation and slow economic growth.  This is a perfect legal formula for suppressing and/or destroying a person’s will simply with too much “red tape.”  Too often it can just become too hard, too expensive and too time consuming to overcome the strength and depth of needless government interference.  It gets more difficult every year to start a new business, expand existing businesses and understand the potential penalties and taxes.

By the way, why do you think deficit government spending is out of control and we are $30 trillion in debt?  Every one of those groups of bureaucrats administering a regulation, that we may not need, will request and get tax revenue with which to operate no matter how unnecessary or destructive or debilitating that regulation might be.

Bottom line is that regulations and bloated bureaucracies dampen the entrepreneurial spirit and kill the will to be all you want to be and can be.  What are we doing about it?  Nothing now.  Trump set deregulation as a priority initiative and made some progress.  That is now gone. Don’t forget, 8 November.

THE WELFARE STATE AND WILL:

There will always be those who are incapable of caring for themselves.  The U.S. is the most benevolent nation on earth and we will continue to care for those in need.  But under the guise of “helping the poor” the Democrat Party in particular has for decades created a dependency class in America, particularly among Black Americans. Some refer to it as vote- buying.  In 2022, $1.3 trillion is projected to be spent on welfare programs in the U.S.

Let’s work the numbers:  The “labor force participation rate”, is a monthly calculated percent of the 243 million Americans age 16 and up.  The participation rate is now about 62%.  That means (62% of 243 million) 151 million are working or looking for work.

That leaves 92 million (243 minus 151) who can work but are neither working nor looking for a job. Of the 92 million, 9 million are age 16 and 17 and still in school, 21 million are in college and 40 million are over age 65. That math leaves us with about 22 million that are able to work but are not looking for work. Granted there are some mentally or physically incapacitated but most are in the over-65 age group.

What are the 22 million who are not looking for work using for income? Probably some type of welfare and this is at a time when it seems nearly every employer in America is looking for more workers.  These are the Americans who have lost the will to be all they can be simply because the government will take care of them even though they can and should be part of the labor force. Speaking of will, the government seems absolutely unwilling to solve this simple math problem. Remember, $1.3 trillion this year for welfare.

DIVERSITY EQUITY AND INCLUSION: 

Biden in particular and the Democrat party in general are hell-bent on application of DEI to shape every aspect of our lives and society. Is that best for we-the-people?

EQUITY vs EQUALITY AND WILL:

“Systemic equity is a dynamic process that reinforces and replicates equitable ideas, power, resources, strategies, conditions, habits and outcomes.” Where does one even start to unravel that bowl of spaghetti, how is it done, who does it, what is the end-state?  Contrast that with the concept of equality with meritocracy wherein everyone has an equal opportunity to pursue “X” and the best and brightest will be chosen to do so. The concept of meritocracy drives will to win and be all you can be. What does equity do for individual will?  Nothing positive and probably lots of negatives.

PARENTING, EDUCATORS, GOVERNMENT AND WILL: 

We now have a couple generations of Americans who grew up receiving participation trophies (PT).  Life is one big competition start to finish while PT dampens development of a sense of competition and the will to win. PT creates a false sense of importance. PT deprives children of learning from their mistakes and the will to do better next time. PT is misled motivation.  One needs self-motivation, aka will, to be all you can/should be. PT is harmful to child development.

Recently three of California’s largest school districts dropped “D” and “F” grades. There is a bunch of psychobabble associated with this concept but the bottom line is it kills the will to do better. 

A recent poll revealed that 90% of college students would like for their school to have “safe spaces” where they can escape being exposed to ideas that make them feel uncomfortable.  We are talking about young ADULTS!!  What happened to “man up” you wimp?  Life gets ugly, get used to it and build the will to overcome tough times because there will be a lot of them and there are no institutionalized “safe spaces” out there in the real world.

You work like hell to build and succeed only to have one or a team from the 87,000 new IRS agents camping out at your front door. This is the return of Lois Learner on steroids. Nice going feds, do all you can to kill the will.

We cannot build a successful society on a false premise thereby producing adults who are aimless, pampered, perhaps lazy, and without a sense of will to win, succeed and prosper.  Government responsibility is like parenting responsibility, build will don’t kill it with cradle-to-grave guaranteed handouts and “safe spaces.”

POST SCRIPT: 

This article would not be complete without a comment about the elephant in the room.  Our glorious system has for too long had some holes in it.  Slaves had no liberty.  Once freed, minorities and women had insufficient liberty which led to low levels of willingness.

Some of the founding fathers were slave owners but that issue needs to be put in perspective. Nothing one can say will every make slavery right or morally acceptable but two hundred years ago there was a different view of slavery. Slavery was the way of the world and had been for thousands of years. Humankind has always had to deal with conflict and to the victors went the spoils of war which were, for the most part, territory and people; hunting land, agricultural land and enslaved workers.

The issue of slavery certainly must have been a topic of conversation during the Constitutional Convention.  But historians tell us that if resolution of the slavery issue was to become a part of our Constitution, it would surely have been a deal breaker.  There would never have been a United States of America. Standing together on the Constitution as drafted was the linchpin.   

The framers of our independence were surely guided in their deliberations by the famous Thomas Payne quote, “If we do not hang together, we shall surely hang separately.”

Slavery was a perplexing issue for the founders because no society had ever abolished slavery before. But to their credit, they did include a place-holder in the Declaration of Independence with the words, “all men are created equal”, and eventually we got there. 

BOTTOM LINE:

The concept of liberty, first written in the preamble to the Constitution, set America on a path heretofore not accepted in the world.  The American spirit embraced liberty and practiced it as individual and collective will. Pioneers expanded our country to the Pacific Ocean on will, we have prospered like no other nation on earth from will, fought and won world wars on will. But now we are trending towards a government with tens of thousands of active but unnecessary regulations, bloated do-nothing bureaucracies, a welfare state and driven by the concept of equity.

Pound a stake in the heart of liberty, kill the will of we-the-people and ultimately destroy all that we hold sacrosanct.

Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO EXECUTION, a book for leaders, and a new book May 2022, FIX THE SYSTEMS, TRANSFORM AMERICA as well as the author of a blog WeThePeopleSpeaking.com.

Calling the Republican National Committee:  Hello, is anybody home?  Hello!

Have you looked at the RNC website lately?  There is nothing there that is servicing a single Republican candidate for any office in 2022 and nothing looking forward to 2024; zero. What in the hell are they doing? There is no Republican platform to guide candidates who are on the stump today.  What is in the website is only about 2016 and 2020.  The only reference to 2022 and 2024 is this statement; “RESOLVED, That the 2020 Republican National Convention will adjourn without adopting a new platform until the 2024 Republican National Convention.” Amazing, not one before-the-fact action by the RNC that could guide candidates in 2022 and 2024.

Thousands of Republican candidates across the nation are campaigning right now and the 2024 presidential wannabees are already posturing; publishing a book, visiting Iowa, New Hampshire, etc.  Under these circumstances one would expect the RNC to be front and center with a coherent message for every Republican candidate in the country to use. Not happening and no indication that they plan to do anything. 

January, 2022, President Biden, from the podium at a virtual Democratic National Committee grassroots event, questioned what Republicans “are for” and suggested that they “don’t stand for anything.”  That statement, kicking off the 2022 election year, should have been a red-flag wake-up call at RNC headquarters.  It should have perpetrated an all-hands-on-deck reaction.  Nothing that I can find suggests they were anything other than asleep at the switch.

Memo to Ms. Ronna McDaniel, RNC Chairperson: 

The RNC website is a disgrace to the Republican Party and not helpful to conservative candidates and voters.  It’s full of boiler-plate fluff that has no value-added for any candidate.  Only recently did you finally take down the 2016 platform and nothing has replaced it.  Our candidates are out there talking about gas prices and inflation; that’s not enough.  They need an entire array of issues laid out in a coherent way that they can use to enhance and focus their campaign presentations every day. Madam Chairwomen, here is what you need to do and it needs to be completed yesterday. A starter list of issues is provided later in the memo. 

Immediately get out a memo to everyone in the RNC headquarters:  All hands-on-deck except emergency leave for the next 10 days.  This is not an eight-to-five endeavor, we will work as long as it takes. We are going to provide a Point Paper to every Republican candidate in America on every subject the Republican Party is now or should be involved in and a lot of what we see the Democrats doing that is harmful to this nation.

The senior staff and I will meet in the conference room tomorrow at 7 a.m.  We will spend however many hours it takes to complete the list of issues.  Following that, the issue list will be distributed to teams of researchers/writers to prepare their first draft of their assigned Point Paper.

On day one, I will get the word out to every Republican candidate that Point Papers will be on the way in 10 days.   

The objective is for every Point Paper to be one page but never more than two, no exceptions, font 12. Every Point Paper will begin with this sentence: The purpose of this Point Paper is to………

I will immediately communicate with some senior mentors (e.g., Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Alan Simpson) and ask that they quickly review and comment on the list of issues that we are for and against.

I and the senior staff will work from the conference room all day, every day to review Point Papers as they are available from the research/writer teams. Every paper will indicate at the top of page 1, which draft it is; first, second, etc., final.

Everything in a Point Paper must be fact checked.

Every Point Paper will be written as if you are the candidate selling the issue to the constituents.

Every final-draft copy will immediately go out to the senior mentors.

Most of these Point Papers can be in first draft by close of business the first day.

Here is a starter list of issues that need to be transformed into Point Papers.

1. End state: The Founding Fathers envisioned a limited government, especially at the Federal level.  But over time the bureaucracy in the Executive Branch has grown into a fourth branch of government with a life of its own and unintended power.  We want a federal government that works for we-the-people and is not bent on controlling every aspect of our lives. RNC: expand on this with some examples of government over-reach that voters can personally relate to.
2. March 2021, the American Rescue Plan, $1.9 trillion:  At that time every economic indicator told us the pandemic-riddled economy was on the way back and improving every day. Biden immediately initiated his (and Obama’s) tax-and-spend economic philosophy by sending a check to 90% of American households.  It was completely unnecessary and is largely responsible for kick-starting the inflation we are experiencing today.  RNC: fill out the details of this bill and what a disaster it has become for every American.
3. November, 2021, Biden signed the $1.2 trillion Infrastructure and Jobs Act.  Everyone knows our infrastructure needs help but how much of the bill is actual infrastructure and how much is “pork”?  The bill was 2700 pages long so it’s another piece of legislation that no one read and that did not pass muster in Congressional Committee hearings. Additionally, Democrats claimed the bill would pay for itself without raising taxes.  But the Congressional Budget Office concluded most of the pay-for provisions were false and ultimately the package would add $256 billion to the deficit. RNC: Fill out the details in a Point Paper.
4. July, 2022, Biden signed into law the “CHIPS” Act, providing $52 billion in incentives for semiconductor production in the U.S.  Fine, we need to reduce our reliance on foreign-made semiconductors.  But what’s in the remainder of the $280 billion law? More pork that we will borrow money to pay for? More tax and spend? RNC: Fill out the details into a Point Paper.
5. We want the Secretary of Defense to get in his lane and stay there. Secretary Austin said, “The DOD will elevate the climate as a national security priority, integrating climate considerations into DOD’s policies, strategies and partner engagements. The DOD will incorporate climate-risk assessments into war-gaming, modeling and simulation, and bolster mission resilience and deploy solutions that optimize capability, and reduce our carbon footprint.” Mr. Secretary, the only thing climate has to do with warfighting is to ensure our service members take weather into account when planning a combat mission.  Military actions are always about “WET”, weather/enemy/terrain.  RNC: fill out the details into a Point Paper.
6. In 2016 Hillary started the mass-name-calling routine with, “You know to just be grossly generalistic, you could put half of Trump’s supporters (that would have been about 35 million Americans) into what I call the basket of deplorables, the racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic, you name it.”  Biden picked up on it in his 2020 campaign and as president he has openly accused white Americans who support Trump policies as racist, white supremacists and “an existential threat to our nation”.  Those kinds of lies are ugly, ignorant and unamerican.  Of course, there are right-wing extremists in our nation but an intelligent person recognizes there are also left-wing extremists.  Those thugs are not main-stream Republicans or Democrats that care about our country. They do not represent either party’s public policy positions.  For a president to paint 70 million conservative Americans with that brush is demeaning.  Every candidate should vigorously attack this kind of rhetoric and rightfully call out the Democrats and Democrat leaders for perpetuating that message. 
7. The recession of 2008 was an Obama/Biden challenge.  They attacked it with a Democrat-endorsed tax and spend offensive that resulted in the slowest economic recovery since World War II.  After eight Obama/Biden years the GDP growth was declining in their final year in office.  This is exactly the path Biden is following.  It didn’t work for Obama and it won’t work now.  RNC: expand on this point, it’s a powerful example of where we are and are headed.
8. Do a Point Paper of campaign one-liners that contrasts the Trump economic plan with the Biden plan: In 2017 Trump cut taxes on everyone.  Labor participation rates went up. Median household income grew.  Poverty rate among Black Americans fell below 20% for the first time. Unemployment rates for Black Americans went under 6% for the first time. Female employment set new record highs. From 2017 to 2019 wages for the bottom 10% of earners grew at more than double the rate they did during the Obama/Biden administration. In the two years following the Trump tax reductions, household incomes rose by more than they had in the previous eight Obama/Biden years combined. Every candidate should hammer these stats every day, the average voter does not know all of this.
9. Corporations don’t pay taxes, people pay taxes. Corporate tax is an additional element in the cost of producing a product just like the cost of raw materials, salaries, plant operations, marketing, etc. RNC, do a Point Paper on the debilitative impacts of raising corporate tax rates, another Obama/Biden debacle that Biden is bringing back.  Trump lowered corporate tax rates and reversed the downward trend in business investment, companies could compete price-wise on the global market, corporate wages went up, bonuses went up, 401(k) matching went up. Increased corporate taxes inevitably leads to lower wages and less hiring. Republicans are for keeping corporate taxes at the levels established by Trump.
10. RNC: do a Point Paper on the Democrat’s Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (being considered by the House as I write this):  Democrats are saying it will reduce the deficit by $300 billion. In spite of the ridiculous title, the Inflation Reduction Act is nothing more than another tax-and-spend tactic that will only serve to exacerbate current inflation issues.  Here are some specifics according to the Wall Street Journal, 4 August:  It will hurt Americans in every tax bracket. More than half the new taxes would be on those making less than $400,000. It is a far-reaching tax on manufacturing that could be devastating.It will make the U.S. less competitive and drive more jobs overseas. It will discourage new investment and create negative economic growth. An estimated 25% of the impact on corporations will fall on employees and lower wages. About 30% of the corporate tax will fall on consumers. It will decrease gross domestic product by an estimated $68 billion with over 200,000 jobs lost. The U.S. tried this in 1986, it didn’t work and was repealed in 1989.  Candidates need to tell the voters that this is the kind of debilitating nonsensical thinking they will get from the Democrats. 
11. RNC: Do a point paper on the debilitating effects of government over-regulation.  Here are some starter facts: The Obama/Biden administration added 20,642 new regulations. Just during 2015 new regulations imposed over $22 billion in regulatory costs. During the Trump administration, the ratio of regulations deleted to regulations gained was 3.2 to 1.  The Trump administration reported eliminating $198.6 billion in overall regulatory costs. It should be noted that a key to becoming energy independent under Trump, was the rollback of stifling energy production regulations. With gas prices soaring to $5+ a gallon, many of us have been asking why can’t we just go back to whatever we were doing in 2019?  Here is the beginning of the answer and candidates across the nation should be explaining this every day. Biden has blamed the increase in gas prices on Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.  He knows that is a lie and he also knows the truth about why gas across the nation went to $5 a gallon. In his first 16 months in office, his administration and Congressional Democrats have initiated over 100 actions (executive orders, policy decisions, new regulations) deliberately designed to make it harder and more expensive to produce energy in America. Thirty-two of these anti-energy proclamations were enacted after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Republicans are for energy deregulation back to the 2019 norm for regaining energy independence and for stopping the export of our strategic oil reserves.
12. Republicans are for open debate in public and in the Congress on critical issues. Here are some reasons it is not taking place.  Instead of engaging in legitimate debates based on merits of each side’s position, Progressives’ tendency is to shut down the exchange of ideas by too often simply asserting that, for example, “securing our border is racist, the 2nd amendment is racist, prosecuting crime is racist, cutting taxes is racist, school choice is racist, voter ID is racist, math is racist” and the list goes on and on. Whenever they do not agree with a position, they characterize that position as racist.  Not very intelligent. The irony of all this is that from the end of the Civil War in 1865 for the next 99 years the Democrat Party was the party of segregation which is, next to slavery, the most damning and demeaning of all actions against Black Americans.
13. Biden and the Democrats have created what they believe is a cute new campaign tactic by referring to conservatives as “MAGA Extremists.”  Here is the proper response to that nonsense.  Yes, says the candidate as the opening to a campaign speech, I am a MAGA Extremist, there are about 70 million of us and here is some of what we are extremely interested in:  Energy independence, year to year economic growth, lower taxes for everyone, employing more women and Black Americans than any time in history, support for Israel, no nuclear weapons for Iran, shutting down North Korea’s missile and nuclear testing, secure borders, best qualified leaders for Executive Branch Departments, each NATO country paying their share, deregulating the federal government, support to small businesses, lower corporate taxes, states’ rights, criminals in prison, support for police, if you are able to work and there are jobs available, get one. If all that is “MAGA extremism”, sign me up. Republican candidates should begin to campaign on being a MAGA extremist and throw that thought right back in Biden’s face.

Note to Chairwoman McDaniel:  There is a new book, May 2022, Fix the Systems, Transform America.  The intent of the book is to define national issues in detail and then present a workable solution for each.  The subjects are education, race relations, illegal immigration, voter fraud, size and scope of the Executive Branch, deficit spending, a dysfunctional Congress, term limits, universal service and world peace.  The point to be made is that Fix the Systems can be an excellent reference for your research/writer teams who are working Point Papers on these subjects.  BTW Ms. McDaniel, I sent you a copy of the book a couple months ago.

14.Biden and the Democrats have been exercising a great tactic for spending trillions of dollars on pork and debilitating laws.  They do it by putting together legislation that is literally thousands of pages long, that no one voting on it has read and that has not been vetted by open debate in Congressional Committees. RNC, do a Point Paper on this kind of legislation and provide some good examples for candidates to use to explain why this is so destructive, e.g., one good example was amnesty for all illegal aliens hidden in the multitrillion dollar Build Back Better bill. Here is another Democrat gem; paying couples who make $299,999. a year a Child Tax Credit, aka buying votes. The point being we-the-people should know exactly what issues are being considered in any particular bill before the Congress.  With the current level of Congressional dysfunction, we are clueless about the details.  “The devil is in the details.” RNC: For more details, see Chapter 5, Fix the Systems, Transform America.

15.Republican candidates should agree the world needs to reduce carbon emissions. But, explain that the Biden/Democrats’ obsession with electronic vehicles (EV) does not compute; do the math.  To be effective the world, not just the U.S., needs about a billion EVs of the 1.446 billion total.  To build one EV battery requires 250 tons of earth materials (lithium and rare metals). Mining, transporting 250 tons of stuff, processing it and building an EV battery produces massive amounts of carbon to the point that an EV battery does not become a net reducer of carbon for several years then they must be replaced with a billion new batteries. One more problem is that China controls about 80% of the known supply of lithium. How do you think that is going to work out?  Secondly, we will need massive new world-wide sources of electricity (demand is estimated to increase by 50% by 2050) to recharge a billion EV batteries every day or so.  Again, the carbon footprint is massive with billions of tons of iron and concrete to build “carbon free” wind turbines and solar panels that, oh-by-the-way are mostly produced in, you guessed it, China. Candidates need to get this information out to the voters.  Yes, we need to reduce carbon and create more electricity so let’s begin some dialogue on expanding the use of natural gas, quickly building a lot more nuclear power plants and a full-court-press on fusion research.  And let’s stop using our hard-earned tax money to pay thousands of dollars in tax credits to the rich folks who can afford to buy a Tesla.  Do the math.

16. Have you noticed lately that all the Democrat bills in Congress raise taxes and go on to claim it will increase federal revenue?  Again, they have their economics exactly backwards.  The Trump Tax Cuts and Jobs Act actually increased follow-on tax revenue because tax cuts cause economic growth, lower unemployment and rising wages. Why is that so difficult to understand?  RNC, flesh out the numbers to go along with this subject; this needs to be shared by all candidates with the voters.

17. Education is a national disgrace:  Every year, over 1.2 million students drop out of high school in the U.S.; that’s a student every 26 seconds, 7,000 every school day. In the U.S. high school dropouts commit about 75% of the crimes.  About 25% of high school freshmen fail to graduate from high school on time. Almost 2,000 high schools across the U.S. graduate less than 60% of their students.  Hundreds of thousands of students are routinely tested across the U.S., here are the results: reading comprehension, percent NOT proficient, grade 4, 59%, grade 8, 66%, grade 12, 76%.  Math, percent NOT proficient, grade 4, 65%, grade 8, 66%, grade 12, 63%.  For decades the Democrats’ solution has been to throw hundreds of billions of dollars and thousands of bureaucrats at the problem and it just keeps getting worse.  RNC: In building your Point Paper you can research the detailed look at a solution to all of this mess, Chapter one Fix the Systems, Transform America.  It will work and its free.

18. “The border is secure.”  BS!   For Biden and the Democrats to purposely place our national security at risk is perhaps the most egregious action taken by a president with support from Congress against all Americans in our history. RNC, get a line of facts together for every candidate to use; 2022, number of known illegals processed, estimates of numbers of illegals entered but not processed, numbers of unaccompanied minors, amount of drugs seized, amount of drugs estimated crossing into the U.S., data on terrorists, gang members, criminals, cost to taxpayers.  Republican position:  walls are a deterrent, they work.  Finish the wall.  There is a simple solution that will voluntarily shut down illegal immigration, see chapter 2, Fix the Systems, Transform America.

19. Critical race theory is not fact, it is a theory and not a valid one.  The end result from teaching CRT is greater divisiveness.  There are better ways to vastly improve race relations in America.  See chapter 1, Fix the Systems, Transform America.

20. Republicans are fed up with boys competing in girls’ sports and the voters should be also. RNC:  Need a Point Paper with a few brief horror stories to emphasize the fallacy of this nonsense.

21.Kim Jong Un is a dangerous and unpredictable nut case and since Trump departed, he has aggressively resumed long-range missile and nuclear testing. Trump met with him one-on-one three times and shut him down. RNC:  Republicans need to jump on this one and embarrass the hell out of Democrats for putting this issue in their too-hard box. We must do something before it is too late.

22. Infrastructure: Republicans need to sound off about the desperate need for a pure infrastructure bill that is not full of fluff and pork.  Sure, roads and bridges need repair but there needs to be some prioritization. The West in general and California in particular are about out of water.  It has been more than 40 years since California last opened a major new reservoir. Nuclear power is safe and clean but because of bureaucrats, environmental fanatics and legal actions it takes 20-30 years to build one.  RNC: Find some other critical, do-it-now projects our candidates can talk about.

23. Blame, blame, blame.  Republicans need to get fired up over the complete absence of accountability by our government leaders.  RNC: Need a Point Paper on this subject with lots of examples since January, 2021. We need to get voters fired up over the Democrat blame game.  

24. Green New Deal:  RNC:  Republicans need a few short hard-hitting stories about the Greens’ nonsensical approach to problem solving.  For example, the Keystone pipeline that would safely and with no carbon footprint deliver about 850,000 barrels of oil per day and Biden killed it within hours of being sworn in.  That oil has to move somehow so let’s use truck tankers; 4,357 of them that will burn 1,951,064 gallons of carbon-belching diesel fuel per day.  It’s a simple math problem.

25. The Latin American Cartels have declared war on the U.S., are making billions of dollars and operating unopposed. The Cartels have been the enemy of several Latin American countries for decades so it should not be difficult to cut a secret deal with them to allow the U.S. to operate secretly with small teams inside their borders.  Then give the mission to JSOC, Joint Special Operations Command, leave them alone and let them take out the leaders and headquarters in one big secret operation.  Republicans should declare war on the Cartels during their campaigning.

26. The Republicans should come out strong and united on the subject of Woke nonsense in the military.  Wokism does not fit with a warfighting culture, our allies and enemies will see it as a weakness (because it is) and what deterrent strength we have remaining will be compromised. RNC: We need to get the Republican candidates fired up on this issue before it is too late.

27. RNC:  Do a Point Paper on Republicans’ support for Israel, our most valued ally and friend in the Middle East for decades. It was a month before Biden reached out to the Israeli leader after the inauguration. 

28. Law and order: RNC:  do a Point Paper on law and order beginning with exactly what our Vice President thinks about lawlessness.  The looting, burning, assaults on innocents and police causing loss of life over the summer of 2020 was led by leftwing extremists, Antifa and the radical elements of Black Lives Matter. Camilla Harris, was a national leader in the movement to instantly provide bail money to the criminals so they could get back on the street to join the crimewave; she tweeted, “If you’re able to chip in now the @MNFreedonFund to help post bail for those protesting on the ground in Minnesota.”  Later on in the summer Harris is quoted as saying, “This is a movement, I’m telling you, everyone beware, protestors are not going to stop before election day in November and they’re not going to stop after election day, they should not.  We should not.”

After pointing out what Republicans are up against (RE the above paragraph on VP Harris) here are some recommendations for Republicans that need to become part of the Republican agenda, such as: Start at the top by firing the Director of the FBI and find someone who is totally focused on law and order and could give a damn about politics; a director who will clean out the upper echelons of the FBI and restructure the culture of the organization. After reorienting the FBI, do the same thing to the Department of Justice.  Law enforcement across the U.S. needs to believe the nation’s top cops in the FBI and Justice Department have their act together.

29. RNC: Do a Point Paper calling out the Democrats for pushing for an expansion of the Supreme Court expressly for the purpose of packing the court with left-wing justices. The Democrats want to, purely for political gain, challenge the 250-year concept of separate-but-equal branches of government.

30. Voter fraud does exist and it shouldn’t.  For example, a couple years ago in California it was determined that 1.5 million individuals were registered to vote even though they no longer were eligible.  So, what happened to the 1.5 million ballots mailed to them?  North Carolina, 2018 the 9^th Congressional District race was overturned because of vote harvesting that included altering and forging absentee ballots. In New Jersey a candidate bribed voters with $50 payments for mail-in ballots. Virginia, an investigation found 592 examples where registrants were simultaneously registered in another state. There are about 11,600 dead people on Virginia’s voter rolls, all of whom would have received mail-in ballots. In New Mexico a Public Interest Legal Foundation found more than 3000 individuals registered multiple times. And so it goes across America. Pathetic and unnecessary.

Voter fraud takes many forms:  It begins with grossly inaccurate voter registration data and then there is ballot stuffing, voter impersonation, fraud by election officials and absentee ballot fraud There is an easy fix for every type of voter fraud; Voter ID. From the president on down to rank-and-file members, Democrats call voter ID “racist”; an insanely ignorant conclusion.  The Congress has passed a bill into law that says if you want to board a domestic air flight beginning May 3, 2023 you must have a “Real ID” card.  You get it at the state DMV site and to do so you must prove U.S. citizenship, local address, etc.  None of the Democrats have called that requirement racist. We can/should use the same procedure for a Voter ID card.  The card data would instantly become the voter registration rolls, 100% accurate and automatically updated whenever your Voter ID is renewed simultaneously with you drivers’ license. When you go to vote the Voter ID card is used just like a credit card; the data is extracted and printed out. Only this time, the printed paper becomes a personal ballot with all of your data on it.  A voting machine will never accept it twice and will not accept it if it does not agree with the Voter Registration Rolls. Mail out/mail-in ballots will be produced accurately from the Voter Registration Rolls.  One eligible voter, one valid ballot counted once.  Voter ID can also be used to solve the problem of hundreds of millions of dollars being “contributed” during the campaign season to buy votes. Voter ID is not racist and it solves all of the current voter fraud problems.  Republicans across the country should be campaigning on this issue.  For more details, see Chapter 3, Fix the Systems, Transform America.

31. Universal Service for every 18-year-old American:  This is a program that has been talked about for years but I have never seen anyone lay out a complete concept of operations for accomplishing that mission.  It would be a huge, complex operation but the combined short- and long-term benefits to the nation are incalculable. The Republican Party and RNC should put Universal Service to America (USA) high on their list of issues they are for and willing to execute.  See Chapter 7, Fix the Systems, Transform America.

32. Shame on all of us for still having to deal with racial discrimination 157 years after the Civil War.  We, but especially the Democrats, have tried to work the issue from the top (federal government) down with trillions of dollars in “assistance”. It has not worked and will not work going forward.  Discrimination can be wiped out of our culture but we have to begin by recognizing some facts and properly define the problem before we search for a solution. Fact, babies are not born bigoted, disrespectful or hateful. Second fact, youngsters learn to be bigoted, disrespectful and/or hateful at home, at school, on the playground, on the streets or, in some cases, in church.  Having properly defined the problem, what is the solution?  We simply have to change what they learn and we can do that by working from the bottom up starting with every 5-year-old kindergartener in America.  It is a program that can work and its free.  See Chapter one, Fix the Systems, Transform America.

BOTTOM LINE: 

Here, in part (emphasis added), is the RNC mission statement: “We are engaged in a national effort to fight for our proven agenda, take our message to every American, grow the party, promote election integrity and elect Republicans up and down the ballot.” How are they doing in 2022 with fulfilling their obligations?  You fill in the blanks, C, D or F? 

Post script:  Fix the Systems, Transform America is a self-published book.  I’m not interested in selling a bunch of books but I sure as hell am interested in doing what I can to help save this nation. If you, the reader, agree please contact your Congressional Delegation and ask them to put some pressure on the RNC to help out the 2022 Republican candidates.  I would ask you to simply send an email directly to the RNC but that is not possible anymore; no surprise, they apparently don’t want to hear from We the People.

Copy furnished: FedEx over-night to Ms. McDaniel, RNC Chairwomen

Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of two books, Vision to Execution and Fix the Systems, Transform America as well as the author of a blog, WeThePeopleSpeaking.com.

Control: To exercise authoritative or dominative influence over.

CHINA/RUSSIA:

For decades during the post-WW II Cold War period, China and Russia were at odds with each other over which one was to be the dominate figure in transitioning the world to communism/socialism. Control of the world is no longer consumed by that single issue. 

In 2001 the two nations signed a twenty-year Neighborly Friendship and Cooperation Agreement. It serves as a basis for peaceful relations and economic cooperation.  Article 9 states, “When a situation arises in which one of the contracting parties deems that peace is being threatened and undermined or its security interests are involved or when it is confronted with the threat of aggression, the contracting parties shall immediately hold contacts and consultations in order to eliminate such threats.”  Articles 7 and 16 emphasize increasing military cooperation. In 2021 the agreement was extended for another five years. 

On February 4^th, 2022, just before the China-hosted Winter Olympics, Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping signed a joint statement laying out a bold declaration of their view of a New World Order consisting mainly of three conditions.  First, China needs natural resources (principally natural gas and oil) and Russia needs China’s investment, goods, and its market. Secondly, on the global stage, both countries stand against the U.S. dominance in the world and stand up for the feckless United Nations system. Third, they face similar strategic power plays; for Russia, the U.S. backed NATO expansion and for China the conflict over Taiwan.  Both feel they are victims of the U.S.-led international order.  

OIL, THEN AND NOW: 

China’s Achilles heel has been and continues to be the availability of natural gas and oil. They currently import 10-12 million barrels of crude oil per day from two major oil sources, Russia and the Middle East.

Over the past ten years Russia has increased the share of oil imported by China each year thanks in part to the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Oil Pipeline which links directly from Siberia into China. In 2021 China imported oil from 44 countries. About one-third (3.6 million barrels per day) was from Russia and about half (51%) from nine Middle East nations with the bulk of it from Saudi Arabia.

In 1973 the U.S. was providing support to Israel during the Yom Kippur War. In retaliation, OPEC decided to stop exporting oil to the U.S.  While the embargo lasted only six months, oil prices quadrupled (imagine if that happened today and crude oil prices quadrupled to $400 per barrel). The embargo became a dual-edged wake-up call to the world. First, it demonstrated the immediate and dramatic leverage the oil exporting countries held and secondly it demonstrated the importance of energy independence for those with the capability to do so.  In 1973 the U.S. vowed to find a way to achieve energy independence.  Unfortunately, it took until 2019 to achieve it.

LONG-RANGE STRETIGIC PLANNING: 

Years ago, China set in motion a long-range strategic plan by doing the first thing first which is to define the end-state, “Control the World” and proceeded to define the operational phases to get there. And thus far they are getting an “A” in execution. For example, they have successfully transitioned to become an economic super power. Additionally, China is shaping the future of economic development in about 100 countries with its Belt and Road initiative to better connect itself to the rest of the world through trade and infrastructure. By providing funding that the countries have long sought for roads, railways, power plants, ports and other infrastructure, China has managed to gain control over critical natural resources such as natural gas, oil, mining operations to include scarce and rare minerals required by the remainder to the world.

There is another interesting piece to the long-range strategic planning process; that is, it is never a one-and-done process because as one moves from phase to phase you don’t know what you don’t know.  Stated another way, strategic planers will likely encounter unanticipated obstacles or perhaps stumble onto a target of opportunity. During my second career, conducting seminars for corporate executives on how to do long-range strategic planning (Vision to Execution), I would call such a circumstance, the “DKDK factor” (you don’t know what you don’t know).  It is critical because a particular DKDK event may cause you to accelerate to a new level of success or it could cause you to shift gears to avoid a disaster.

I believe there have been three unanticipated things happen in just the past 18 months (DKDK) that impact China’s plan to “Control the world.”  They are leadership in “the West”, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and U.S. policy in the Middle East.

ONE, THERE IS NO LONGER A LEADER OF “THE WEST.” 

Background:  A little over 100 years ago the U.S. sent its military to Europe to win World War I.  We did it again about 80 years ago but not only to save Europe in World War II, but also to simultaneously fight and win in the Pacific region, an unimaginable feat. Following WW II, we were engaged with Europe and NATO for about 50 years of the Cold War against the Soviet Union.  The U.S. clearly led every military, political and economic aspect to victory in the Cold War.  Given these events it is no surprise that for decades the U.S. president has been referred to as, “the leader of the free world.”  That title was not ceremonial, it existed because the free world believed it.

President Biden’s actions over the past 18 months have disappointed and disillusioned world leaders. For example:

The embarrassing and unnecessary military/political collapse in Afghanistan.

Disrespect for a leader who would instantly squander his nation’s energy-independence to make a trite political point.

Astonishment that President Biden would willingly and deliberately threaten our national security by opening our borders to millions of unvetted, untested criminals, MS- 13 gang members, terrorists, drug dealers, human traffickers, hundreds of thousands of unaccompanied minors and millions of common folks with no known skillsets from over 170 countries.

Inability to deal with growing lawlessness across the U.S.

Obvious disinterest and/or inability to deal with North Korea’s ramped-up nuclear and long-range missile testing almost immediately after the January, 2021 inauguration.

His inability to speak to difficult and demanding world issues without a prepared script and/or staged Q and A.

And finally, the icing on the cake.  The world watched the Russian buildup of an invasion force on the border with Ukraine from October, 2021 through 24 February, 2022. While China and North Korea refused to condemn the invasion, the remainder of the world thought otherwise. But the shockwave instantaneously hit the world when President Biden, in a rare extemporaneous moment, said, “Russia will be held accountable if it invades. It depends on what it does.  It’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion and then we end up having a fight about what to do and not do, et cetera.” The world’s interpretation of that statement, a little invasion will be OK.  Biden’s minions moved quickly to issue a what-the-president-meant-to-say statement but the irrevocable damage had been done.  Suspicions confirmed, the president of the United States can no longer be trusted as the leader of the free world. 

Our allies and enemys alike are wondering who is in charge. There are obvious global doubts about President Biden’s physical and mental capacity to deal with the rigorous demands of a “leader of the free world.”

TWO: LESSONS LEARNED OVER THE LAST SIX MONTHS FROM RUSSIA’S INVASION OF UKRAINE:

Without condemning Russia for invading Ukraine, China could see that this unexpected world event could be instructional for them as they contemplate invading Taiwan.

Initially China could see that the invasion could possibly result in an all-out NATO military response.  But that did not happen for one major reason, gas and oil.  Russia has created a gas/oil dependence in Europe that can literally be turned on and off.  Russia used that leverage to soften the sanctions imposed by “the West.”  It prevented any NATO combatants from assisting inside Ukraine. And it caused European nations to lose interest in providing sufficient warfighting material to Ukraine as the war has extended in time and is no longer daily headline news.

China’s take-away; in today’s complex geopolitical makeup, gas and oil can be the linchpin to success or failure either to influence short-term events or for the long haul. 

THREE: BIDEN’S TRANSFORMATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST:

Background leading to today: The Obama/Biden approach to the Middle East was dominated by two issues, disregard for Israel and The Iran Nuclear Deal.   Number one needs no elaboration; they simply abandoned the U.S. decades-old policy of uncompromising support to Israel, our most valued friend in the region.

The Iran deal:  There is an old saying, “If you want something bad enough, that’s the way you will get it, bad.”

After a couple years of negotiations, the deal was signed July, 2015. 

Background: The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, 1970, was agreed to by 191 nations.  The Clinton and Bush administrations vowed that Iran would never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon. As the world’s greatest state-sponsor of terrorism, Iran had been hit hard with sanctions prior to 2013.  During negotiations for the nuclear deal with Iran, the U.S. lifted many of the most rigorous sanctions in order to get Iran to agree to the deal. After signing, Iran prohibited the UN from inspecting their nuclear development sites.  The Atomic Energy Agency inspector Olli Heinonen said the agreement means “Iran will be a threshold breakout nuclear state for the next 10 years”. The agreement was a complete betrayal of the trust of Israel as well as close Arab friends in the region;  Saudi Arabia and Egypt hated the agreement.

Because most believed Iran was fast producing a nuclear bomb, in 2018 President Trump cancelled the agreement and hit Iran hard with new sanctions.

U.S./Middle East today:  Iran may already have a nuclear weapon but does not want to disclose the truth in fear of an attack by Israel.  Within days after inauguration, President Biden formally offers to restart nuclear talks with Iran.  It is obvious to the casual observer that Iran is playing the U.S. negotiators, stretching out the schedule, seeking more and more sanctions relief all the while putting the finishing touches on their nuclear weapon. Biden is blinded by his obsession to undo everything President Trump accomplished in the Middle East at any cost.  

U.S./Saudi relationships then and now: Bilateral agreements, particularly in the energy and security sectors have endured for decades. Saudi Arabia is one of the U.S.’ largest trading partners in the Middle East.  The U.S. has been instrumental over the decades in organizing, training and equipping the Saudi military.

The Obama/Biden and now the Biden administrations bungling of the nuclear issues as they apply to Iran have created a deep mistrust between Saudi Arabia in particular and other Middle East nations in general towards the U.S.  They do not want a nuclear Iran and believe Biden has facilitated it.

In 2017, President trump’s first overseas trip was to Saudi Arabia and was described as, “A pro-American extravaganza” where Trump and the King signed a $110 billion arms deal.

Saudi Arabia is engaged in a war with their southern neighbor, Yemen.  The terrorist group, Houthi, engaged the Yemen government forces in 2014 and succeeded in capturing most of the country.  The ousted Yemen president asked Saudi Arabia for assistance.  The Saudis put together a coalition of nine Middle East nations to assist. During the conflict, the U.S. has provided intelligence and logistical support as well as the sale of arms to coalition states. The Houthi terrorist group is totally sponsored by and equipped by Iran.  They routinely attack Saudi oil producing areas and oil refineries. Because of all that, President Trump put the Houthi on the international terrorist list.

Enter the Biden Administration.  They immediately removed the Houthis from the terrorist list and cancelled a Saudi order for military equipment needed to fight the Houthis.  Biden went on to announced an end to American support for Saudi-led offensive operations against the Houthis.  A perfect lesson on how not to treat friends and valued allies.  

Additionally, during his 2020 campaign Biden labeled Saudi Arabia a “pariah state” over the murder of U.S.-based journalist Jamal Khashoggi.  Meanwhile the Chinese government is committing crimes against humanity toward eleven million Uyghur Muslims in northwest China (imprisoning more than a million) and Biden refers to China President Xi Jinping as, “my old friend.”  This hypocrisy is not lost on Saudi leaders and other Middle East nations. Given those underpinnings, Biden’s trip last week to Saudi Arabia to beg for oil ended up being all about a fist-bump and w=was a national disgrace. 

SO, WHERE ARE WE NOW IN THIS GEOPOLITICAL JIGSAW PUZZLE?

How do the geopolitical shifts in the past eighteen months as suggested above relate to China’s on-going plan to “control the world?” Three points to consider; One, to control the world China has to have greater influence over relationships with individual west nations; Germany, France, UK, U.S. Italy, etc. Without a leader in the West, subtle divide-and-conquer initiatives could be China’s next move. Secondly, Russia’s leverage over Europe right now, resulting from gas and oil dominance, may be a wake-up call to China. They might be concluding that unanticipated circumstances in the Middle East could result in the reduction or loss of oil from Saudi Arabia; a potential catastrophic situation for China just as it is now for Europe.  Third, Biden has succeeded in fracturing U.S. influence in the Middle East; does this open a door for China to gain greater control over Middle East oil exports?  

CHINA/IRAN RELATIONSHIP:

In July, 2015 China and Iran agreed to expand trade to $600 billion in ten years; an increase of 1,000%. In March 2021 Iran and China signed a 25-year cooperation agreement that will strengthen their relationship with respect to political, strategic, military and economic components.  China has contracts totaling hundreds of billions of dollars in Iran’s gas and oil industry to include exclusive rights to several Iranian oil and natural gas fields. It is not lost on China planners that Iran ranks as the fourth-largest reserve of oil and the second-largest reserve of natural gas in the world. Iran has signed on to China’s One Belt and Road program as a key part of China’s geopolitical ambitions in central Asia and the Middle East.  They are also linked militarily with China providing advanced systems to include control technology for long-range missile development. In January, 2022 Iran, China and Russia held their third joint naval drills in the northern Indian Ocean. There also continues to be Chinese nuclear experts, scientists and technicians present in Iran.

RUSSIA/ IRAN RELATIONSHIP: 

Russia and Iran have had a close relationship for many years.  Last week Putin visited Iran for talks on expanding ties between the two nations. Sanctions imposed on Russia and Iran by the United States will strengthen their resolve for stability and economic prosperity in the region.  In 2016 Russia entered into an agreement with Iran to build nuclear power capabilities in Iran. A few days ago, the National Iranian Oil Company and Russian gas producer Gazprom signed a memorandum of understanding worth about $40 billion. Iran may be delivering armed drones to Russia for the Ukraine war. Iran, Russia and Turkey are discussing joint car production. The strength of the Russia/Iran advancing relationship is a common enemy, the United States.

Thirty years ago, Iraq’s Saddam Hussein invaded neighboring Kuwait. Most believed this was a stepping-stone action on the way to take down Saudi Arabia, control the world’s largest exporter of oil and thereby have enormous leverage against Europe and the United States. What happened shocked the world.  In short order, the U.S. demonstrated an unprecedented 3500-mile force projection capability and defeated Iraq’s highly publicized armor forces in about two days of combat. If Iran evolves as the new leader in the Middle East, few would foresee that type of U.S. response occurring again, which provides China and Russia almost free rein to have greater influence in the Middle East with Iran as their proxy.  

CENTERS OF GRAVITY: 

A final comment about long-range strategic planning.  A critical step for the plan as a whole and also as the organization is about to transition into another phase is to stop for a moment, take a deep breath and consider what will be the centers of gravity.  Centers of gravity defined: A person, place, thing or circumstance that is CENTRAL to success or which could cause the plan to fail.”  VISION TO EXECUTION.  For example, in China’s overall plan a center of gravity is the continuous ability to import large quantities of natural gas and oil from the Middle East in general and from Saudi Arabia in particular.

The rule is, once a center of gravity has been identified it must be continually assessed. In the current China phase of their long-range plan to control the world, China planners should be reassessing the dynamics in the Middle East; reduced U.S. influence, their friend Iran emerging as the Middle East’s first possessor of a nuclear weapon, Israel’s long-time threat to take out a nuclear weapon in Iran, Saudi Arabia preoccupation with their war against the Yemen Houthi terrorists, etc. 

The current question for China is, will the dynamics in the Middle East potentially threaten gas and oil exports to China? If so, that could portend disaster for the current phase as well the overall end-state. It therefore becomes a center of gravity that must be dealt with immediately.  Conversely, perhaps they see an opportunity for Iran to supplant Saudi Arabia as the principal gas/oil supplier to China.  If so, that becomes a center of gravity to be exploited.

BOTTOM LINE: 

If we look at the world in three categories, it makes it easier to see where China is with respect to their desired end-state, Control the World.

China/Russia alliance: China and Russia are now committed to moving forward as a formidable team; strength in numbers.  China needs gas and oil and other natural resources.  Russia needs to be able to lean on China’s economic growth.  The end-state is considerable leverage against other nations and regions.

Other small nations: To date China has quietly gone about gaining levels of control in up to 100 nations through its on-going Belt and Road initiative. These nations can provide value added principally in terms of natural resources; gas, oil and minerals to include most of the lithium and rare-earth-metals on the planet.

The West: Lumping together the major nations (U.S. Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, most of Europe, Korea, Japan, Australia) who collectively produce a significant share of the world’s GDP, they are currently without a presumptive leader and therefore, unable to collectively counter China’s long range control agenda. 

CONCLUSIONS:

The U.S. has rapidly become more of an observer and less of a mover-and-shaker in world events. We have forfeited our military deterrent status. “The West” is leaderless. China’s military is stronger, larger, more lethal and more deployable than ever before. NATO is expanding but does it have the united will to be a formidable force?  The UN remains powerless and essentially under the control of China and Russia because of the one-vote veto in the Security Council; i.e., nothing favorable to the West will happen and nothing unfavorable to China/Russia/Iran/North Korea will happen.

A China/Russia/Iran cabal controlling the Middle East could be disastrous for the West in general and the U.S. in particular if we choose to remain energy dependent. They could leverage all gas/oil-importing nations just as Russia is currently leveraging Europe.  China would have free-rein to take over Taiwan.

China is executing a plan to control the world and this administration has either chosen to not acknowledge it or we are aware but are clueless as to what to do about it.

It is not a pretty picture but it is food for thought.

Author’s note, new subject:

I have published a new book, FIX THE SYSTEMS, TRANSFORM AMERICA.  I believe many of you will agree that our country can/should be better than it is today, some examples:  Education results are pathetic, race relations are a mess, illegal immigration is a national security nightmare, voter fraud does exist but shouldn’t, the size and scope of the Executive Branch is actually harmful in too many ways, federal deficit spending is out of control, Congress is dysfunctional, existing term limits do not adequately serve we-the-the people, universal service for young adults can make us a better nation and wouldn’t it be nice if we had a way to almost guarantee world peace.

The book is not political, there is plenty of blame for everyone involved in these ten issues. My intent is to thoroughly define the problems and then present a solution in as much detail as possible.  Since publication in May, 2022, I have sent copies around the country to leaders and well-known, well-positioned spokespersons in the Republican Party.  My message to them is that solutions to these problems should be of interest to all voters and they represent what I believe could be a proper and valuable 2024 Republican Party platform. In total, these solutions will save hundreds of billions of dollars for the American taxpayers.

I self-published the book and there is no marketing plan; my intent is not to be a best-seller or to make a pile of money.  What I would ask is that if you get a copy and agree with some of the solutions, would you please take the time to make your thoughts known to you Congressmen and women as well as your two Senators.  Available on Amazon for $11.99.

Thank you,

Marv Covault

 Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of two books, VISION TO EXECUTION and FIX THE SYSTEMS, TRANSFORM AMERICA as well as the author of a blog, WeThePeopleSpeaking.com.

The last sentence of the 3rd paragraph should read, U.S. inflation is higher than in Japan, France, Germany, Britain, Italy and Canada. Sorry about that…..Marv

One thing President Biden is finding very difficult to do is to get through a prepared speech or an answer to a reporter’s question without blaming someone or something other than himself or his administration.  I recall the Clintons doing it in the 1990s; they called it “spin” and they took it to a new level.  Call it what you want, it is disgusting, distasteful, and an egregious failure of leadership.  It is inevitably a failing leader’s last resort; blame, blame, blame.

He has blamed the Afghanistan debacle on, “the generals”, blamed tangled supply chains on “inflation”, blamed the over-all economic nose-dive on “COVID and Putin” blamed surging lawlessness on “COVID and guns”, blamed out-of-control fuel prices on “Putin and the Ukraine invasion”, blamed gas prices on “fuel company CEOs”, Blamed increasing meat prices on “CEOs” and on and on and on. 

TRUTH: Truth just doesn’t seem to matter to President Biden; he will say whatever it takes to get past the moment. “The border is not open.” The truth: Every statistic associated with illegal immigration tells us just the opposite.  Biden June, 2022: “We have the fastest growing economy in the world.”  The truth: More than 50 countries are growing faster. Biden: “People have record savings.”  The truth: Wealth losses in the U.S. have exceeded $10 trillion so far in 2022, the most significant catastrophic vaporizations of wealth and savings in U.S. history.  Biden’s spokesperson recently explained that, “The economy is in a better place than it has been historically.”  The truth:  During the Trump presidency, before COVID-19, median household income rose by $6,446, the largest three-year gains in income for middle-class families in history. Under Biden, median income lost $5-6,000 in average wages and salaries when adjusted for inflation over the last year. Biden: “America is in a position to tackle a worldwide problem (inflation) that’s worse everywhere but here.” The truth: Inflation is higher in Japan, France, Germany, Britain, Italy and Canada.

Why is he doing this?  Here is one theory.

Politicians have a reputation for conveniently playing loose with the truth; yet they keep getting reelected. I’m no psychologist but it seems to me that if that behavior (routinely lying) is repeatedly rewarded (reelected) they just may begin to believe lying doesn’t matter; it’s not a big deal.  

Our president spent his entire adult life as a professional politician.  Until 2021 he had never led an organization, built anything, met a payroll, balanced an organization’s budget, been responsible for a dozen or so “senior executives” or had a staff of hundreds or thousands of subordinates. 

Does congressional experience provide an individual with the building blocks to be president of the United States?  Well, here is what we-the-people have been saying about that. For about 50 years Gallop has been conducting an annual poll to gather findings on a couple of   pertinent questions. 

The first has to do with confidence in a long list of American institutions.  The 2021 poll tells us that Congress as an institution is very near the bottom of the list with 12% saying they have “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in the U.S Congress.  By contrast the U.S. Military has consistently been at or near the top with (in 2021) military at 69%.    

A similar Gallop poll deals with Honesty and Ethics:  That poll, 2021, Members of Congress were rated “high/very high” by only 9% of the public and low/very low by 62%.   By contrast Members of the Military were rated 81% high/very high and 1% low/very low.

One obvious conclusion from these two Gallop poles is that if the members of an organization are getting an “F” in honesty and ethics, the overall organization will get an “F” in confidence from we-the-people.

ACCOUNTABILITY:  There is another very serious issue associated with blame and lying.  It is his abrogation of one of the foundational elements of leadership, accountability.  He talks to us about “the buck stops with me” but his level of hypocrisy on the issue of accountability is palpable.  Saying and doing are two very different actions.

This is not a “blame game”, it is much too serious to be referred to as anything as trite as a game.  This is about having a leader who is lying about two of the most important issues in this country that is negatively impacting every single person every day; inflation and gas prices. There is no factual data to back up his assertions and everyone knows it.  For example, in 2020 the national average gas price dropped below $2.00 per gallon. It was $2.25 when Biden took office, $3.32 one year later and a month BEFORE Putin invaded Ukraine.  Today, the national average gas price is $4.90 per gallon.  Americans can rightly conclude if he will look at us through his teleprompter and lie about the big issues, he will likely lie about anything else to cover his tracks. 

We all know what blame means, an attempt to deflect responsibility from one’s self. Another way to look at it is to define the exact opposite of blame which is accountability

The seriousness of the absence of accountability goes further.  Very high up on the line-up of desirable leader character traits are trust and respect.  Without accountability, neither trust nor respect will become part of the leadership equation. We cannot trust someone who lacks the moral courage to tell us the truth about the most important issues facing America.  Without trust and accountability how are we going to respect that person as our leader?  The president’s pathetic pole numbers prove this point.

 If you are looking for a single word that sums up the attributes of accountability, trust and respect it would be integrity. A person of integrity will consistently display moral commitment, selflessness and confidence to speak out and act out with honesty and honor. A mid-1900s radio personality, Edward R. Murrow summed it up accurately with this, “To be persuasive you must be believable; to be believable you must be credible; to be credible you must be truthful.”  Amen.

CULTURE:  Having discussed the president’s character, or lack thereof, we also must consider the larger issue; it is about the organization, i.e., the collective U.S.A.

Culture is a powerful and pervasive force in every organization and every organization, no matter how large or small, has a culture. Culture is an organization’s personality; caring, hateful, fast, honest, energetic, visionary, risk-taking, vengeful.  Culture will change over time for better or worse.  Too many times senior leaders pay little or no attention to the culture of their organization until they wake up one day and figure out that it is a disaster and is dragging the entire organization down. The point being, culture needs attention all the time.  A leader does not build an organizational culture by sending out an email or memo.  The leader defines what the culture currently is, decides what he/she wants it to be and then sets in motion all the initiatives necessary to institutionalize it. It’s a lot of work; a leader must get every subordinate leader on board, make them actively participate and sell it, talk about it openly and frequently.  Everyone in the organization should be able to define the culture and its impact on the environment in which they work. 

Here is the key question facing us on the subject of culture; what is happening right now, today at the leader level (the president), at the headquarters level (i.e., the entire Executive Branch) and the organization as a whole (the U.S.A)?  There is no reason to rehash what the president is doing; he is consistently using blame as a leadership tool and it is a disaster. 

Blame is spreading.  It has become obvious that the secretaries of the departments, State, Defense, Transportation, Energy, Homeland Security, etc.  have, by choice or otherwise, bought in to blame as a leadership mechanism.  A perfect example is Homeland Security Secretary Mayorkas during a recent congressional hearing on the disaster on the southern border singing directly from the Biden sheet of music about no such thing as an “open border, we are doing everything we can to contain illegal immigration.”  Or to listen to Energy Secretary Granholm explaining that energy CEOs are the problem and if we-the-people would all buy an electric vehicle our energy problems would go away.

Finally, throughout the organization, the political left picks up on the blame culture, it spreads, it is deemed an acceptable course of action by our liberal media and liberal institutions of higher learning. We become capable of creating a next-generation of leaders who believe blame is an acceptable leadership tool.

But there are others in the organization who see culture for what it really is, corrosive behavior that eats away at the foundation of leadership and of the organization.  Morale suffers and pride in workmanship declines by those who realize they are supporting a lie. 

With two schools of thought on a culture of blame, ultimately the nation becomes more divided.  Our president, the “great unifier” is failing the American people and the foundation of the republic.

CONCLUSIONS:

Why are great leaders great?  Some people will refer to a successful leader as a, “born leader.” No such thing.  First is desire.  If a leader does not want to lead or is uncomfortable in the seat, they will likely fail.  Secondly, is preparation.  Great leaders have years of experience at the first-line leader level, the operational level and finally at the strategic level. They are good at what they do as a result of a combination of formal leader development training, self-initiated study, having been properly mentored and by having experienced many successes and failures along the way. 

I believe we can all agree that being president of the United States may be the most difficult, the most demanding leadership position in the world.  A best-case scenario would be for the president to have experienced at least years if not hopefully decades of leader development at tactical through strategic levels, experienced near-term and long-range planning successes and failures, learned how and when to deal with direct-report subordinates as well as dozens, then hundreds or perhaps thousands of worker-bees at the lower levels, experienced how to deemphasize self-interests by always seeking the greater good for the organization as a whole and keeping that thought in the forefront of every action and reaction.

President Biden has none of this training and he is, therefore, failing the American people on so many fronts. His natural reaction is to turn to what 50 years of politics taught him; play loose with the truth and resort to blame, blame and more blame.

Almost nothing damages the reputation of a leader faster than attempting to dodge an issue rather than deal with it.  Blame is a dodge.  Nothing positive will ever come of it.

BOTTOM LINE:

Our lives are defined by how we deal with adversity.  When failure manifests its ugly head, the last course of action should be to abandon accountability because doing so ensures there also will be no trust or respect going forward.

A thought from an unknown author, “The only thing that happens when you throw dirt is that you lose ground.”  Blame doesn’t inspire, it breeds malcontent, discord, disarray, frustration and ultimately failure for we-the-people.

All leaders are held accountable for the welfare of their people, some leaders are additionally held accountable for the welfare of the organization.

Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO EXECUTION, a book for leaders, and a new book May 2022, FIX THE SYSTEMS, TRANSFORM AMERICA as well as the author of a blog WeThePeopleSpeaking.com

It is not very encouraging when an article begins with a disclaimer, but for this one it is necessary.  This article contains a lot of numbers associated with the Green Movement and many of them conflict from source to source.  My intent is to use the numbers to paint a picture of what is going on in the world with regard to carbon emissions.  Some of the numbers may be exactly wrong but also about right.  About right means more than one source had the same or similar number so I used it.

THE WORLD WE LIVE IN: 

Humans: What human population can our earth support?  Guestimates abound but there are some very convincing arguments that the maximum could be 9-10 billion.  With the population closing in on 8 billion, we may already be on borrowed time. What immediately comes to mind is that a little over 100 days ago Russia invaded Ukraine.  While there are already about 47 million people in 81 countries on the edge of famine, The World Food Program warns that the Russia/Ukraine conflict could result in 276 million facing “acute food insecurity.”   Not a comforting thought. 

One final thought to keep in mind about the human race today; 17% are illiterate and probably poor, 26% live less than 14 years, 66% die between ages 15 and 64 due primarily to malnutrition and/or lack of adequate medical care because they are poor.  These poor people live in poor countries.

Minerals: None of earth’s minerals are renewable.  Already, 17 of the 78 minerals contained in the earth’s crust are classified as, ‘rare earth metals,” some of which are essential to manufacturing almost anything electric. And, you guessed it, China controls about 80% of the world’s supply.  Controlling the supply, provides opportunity to control processing which leads to controlling price and also who gets what share.  Not a comforting thought.

Electricity: World-wide requirement for electricity has been steadily increasing since Alexander Graham Bell lit up the first light bulb in 1879. Throughout the last century central heating and air conditioning became commonplace in the hundreds of millions of structures, including an ever-increasing demand for electric power.  But since the turn of this century, demand for electricity has been increasing at an increasing rate. An estimated 900,000 people are going online for the first time every day.  Access to the internet increased by 54% in 2021.  Consider that about 84% of the world’s population, over 6.6 billion people, recharge smart phones and laptops every day? Now we are talking about charging hundreds of millions of car batteries that weigh in at about 1000 pounds.

CREATING ELECTRIC POWER FROM RENEWABLE WIND AND SOLAR:  Building one wind turbine requires 45 tons of plastic (processed from petroleum), 900 tons of steel, 2,500 tons of concrete and 2 tons of rare-earth elements. To produce the 900 tons of steel needed for one turbine requires about 150 tons of coking coal and about 300 tons of iron ore. 

More bad news. Cement is the number one carbon contributor in the world.  The production of one pound of cement also produces one pound of CO2.

More bad news, the 45 tons of plastic is nonrecyclable.

If we want to produce half the world’s electricity from wind, we will need to build about 3 million more turbines.  Back to the 900 tons of steel required for one turbine, 3 million turbines would require 2.7 billion tons of earth materials. 

Yes, one more bad news point; after a turbine life-cycle of about 20 years, start all over.

Finally, the worse news of all: After we dig out of the earth billions of tons of raw materials, transport it, process it into a usable product, again transport it and finally construct a turbine, we will have unavoidably created an enormous carbon emissions footprint. Some researchers believe the actual CO2 reduction is so insignificant that one large windfarm saves less in a year than is given off over the same period by a single jumbo jet flying daily between the U.S. and England.

Wind turbine cost:  The average is about $3 million.  Again, if we need 3 million of them, the total is in the neighborhood of $9 trillion.  Add to that an annual maintenance cost of $45,000 each ($1.35 billion for the world) and you will likely conclude that most of the countries in the world cannot afford to be part of the program.  That fact takes us back to the Paris Accords; good ideas but probably not within the art of the possible. 

Electricity from solar panels: The discussion of cement/steel requirement for energy from wind are sobering.  I’m sorry to report that energy from solar power requires even more cement and steel than wind turbines to produce the same amount of electricity.  Additionally, production of solar panels requires large amounts of silver and indium.  Mining of these metals is expected to increase by 250% and 1200% respectively over the next twenty years and some day we will likely run out of both. Solar panels require other rare-earth elements which are not currently mined in the US.  Demand for these elements is expected to rise 250-1000% by 2050.  Access to these metals is questionable.  For example, the Republic of the Congo produces 70% of the world’s raw cobalt and China controls 90% of cobalt mining and refining

More facts bearing on the Green Revolution:

BIDEN’S FOLLY:  The afternoon of 20 January, 2021, our new president took a sharp left turn, signed away our short-lived energy independence thereby setting in motion an economic disaster, all to make a point about moving the world away from fossil fueled vehicles.  All this without consultation with Congress, let alone the American people who he had just a few hours earlier pledged to support and defend. His action was not a bold move for mankind, a world-leader move, it was plain and simple gotcha-Trump move.  How much research had he and his staff done on the viability of a world full of electronic vehicles, EVs? 

Fact:  The world has a greenhouse gas emissions problem and passenger vehicles account for about 15% of the carbon.

THE PARIS ACCORDS, fact:  the Accords entered into force on November 4, 2016, and has been signed by 195 countries and ratified by 190 as of January 2021.  The objective is to limit greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2030 and ultimately to levels that would prevent global temperatures from increasing more than 3.6 °F before the end of this century. 

Each signatory to the Paris Climate Agreement was asked to submit a plan.  The “plan” was to specify their year-by-year program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. So, what happens if a nation does not submit a plan or does not achieve their objectives?  Nothing, absolutely nothing. The plans are not enforceable and there are no penalties for failure. The Paris Climate Agreement is a glorified global PR effort.  No teeth. No funding.  No sanctions for failure.  But the story gets worse.

Under the Paris agreement, “developed countries” such as the United States pledged to provide funding and technical support to “developing countries”, such as India to assist with emissions reductions; wherein India promptly estimated that is would need “at least U.S. $2.5 trillion” in aid by 2030 to achieve their emissions reduction targets. the World Bank officially categorizes 139 nations as “developing.” How many of the 139 will want a handout from the U.S. taxpayers to achieve their unenforceable environmental goals?

To date, almost 75% of the nations’ pledges are insufficient to achieve the 2030 target. And then there is China’s “pledge”. They will continue to increase emissions of carbon dioxide at least until 2030′ i.e., zero reduction planning.

COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS, Fact:  Coal-fired power plants account for about 26% of global greenhouse emissions.  The world has about 10,000 coal-fired power plants; the US has less than 250. China and India combined have over 35% of the world’s population and about 50% (5,100) coal-fired power plants.  That’s the bad news; the worse news is that between the two of them China and India are in the process of building 634 new coal-fired power plants by 2030. China is also building and financing hundreds of other coal-fired power plants in countries such as Turkey, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, Egypt, and Bangladesh. 

Fact: How much leverage does President Biden have to get the likes of China and India on board with greenhouse gas reductions?  About zero.? 

With that background information, let’s get to the heart off the EV issue, the battery.

BATTERY POWERED VEHICLES:  The Green New Deal seeks to replace gas guzzling vehicles with battery power to reduce hydro carbon buildup.  This is not a simple matter. Some factors impacting on this green issue:

All world transportation (cars, trucks, planes, boats, trains) account for about 23% of greenhouse gas emissions while vehicles alone contribute about 15%.  There are over 1.45 billion vehicles in the world and less than half of one per cent are electric. There are about 291 million vehicles in the U.S., 20% of the world total, also with only about half of one percent electric.  Point being, we have a long way to go to reach the Paris Agreement goal of, “limiting greenhouse gas emissions by 50 % by 2030”. 

Fact:  Increasing the number of EVs is not just a U.S. issue, it is a world issue: 80% of vehicles are outside the U.S. 

One electric car battery, weighs in at about 1000 pounds.  To produce one battery requires digging up and processing about 500,000 pounds of raw materials such as cadmium, cobalt, lead, lithium, and nickel. For example, for some of these type materials, the end product is about one half of one percent of the weight of the material dug out of the ground.

Here is the magnitude of the problem: To power 50% of the world’s vehicles by batteries, we would have to dig up, transport and process about 175 billion tons of earth’s materials. Currently, electric car battery life is about ten years and then we need to dig another 175 billion tons, and again and again and that is just to power half the cars.

A new favorite sound-bite by the Green folks is “net zero.”  Well, Green folks, try this one on for size:  Producing an electric vehicle contributes, on average, twice as much to global warming and uses double the amount of energy than producing a combustion engine car. This is mainly because of its lithium-ion battery. Given all that, it takes about nine years for an electric car to be “greener” than a gas/diesel car, assuming an annual average mileage of 8100 miles.  With average lithium battery life of about ten years, what is the net gain?  Not much.

BTW, another fact the Green environmentalists won’t tell you about is (with half the world’s vehicles EV) every 10 years we will have about 350 million tons of  spent, very toxic, lithium-ion batteries. Well, they might say, “let’s just recycling them.”  Without major advances in battery technology, recycling lithium is currently cost prohibitive.

Finally, we get to the title question, LITHIUM, HOW MUCH FOR HOW LONG?

Any discussion of lithium will make reference to the amount of lithium in terms of “resources” and/or “reserves.”  Resources is an estimate of the amounts believed to be physically contained in the earth’s crust while reserves refer to an estimate of the amount that can technically and economically be expected to be produced from a geological formation.

LITHIUM AND THE CHINA FACTOR:

China is the best long-range strategic planner in the world and they have used their expertise to control the supply of lithium.  China has been quietly buying lithium producers and deposits around the world for years.

Australia:  China owns a 51% stake in Australia’s Greenbushes mine, currently the world’s largest.

Chile: May, 2022 China acquired a stake in Chile’s lithium mining operations for $4.1 billion. Chile is currently the largest producer of lithium in the world.

Congo: China is gaining control over lithium deposits in the Congo which are being hailed as, “the world’s largest undrilled lithium resource.”

UK: China has a controlling 73% stake in the lithium mines in south-western England.

Afghanistan:  Since the U.S. fall in Afghanistan, the Taliban rewarded China for its support by granting it effective control of the lithium mines in Afghanistan.

Canada: January, 2022, China bought Canada’s Lithium mining company for $919 million.

Chinese chemical companies account for about 80% of the world’s total output of raw materials for EVs, smart phones and laptop computers. China controls the processing of most of the critical minerals in lithium-ion batteries; rare earth minerals, lithium, cobalt and graphite.

 Additionally, of the 136 lithium-ion plants expected to be operational by 2029, 101 will be based in China.

Whoever controls lithium mining and processing will control the price of lithium and by extension the price of electronic vehicle batteries.

When looking for an answer to the question, how long will the earth’s supply of lithium last, there are many variables to consider. For example, what are the current lithium reserves (mineable and available) and resources (exist but may not be currently mineable), can we find more, which size battery (small, medium, large) do we use in the computations, what will the total world-wide demand be, can new technology expand battery life, etc.?  Some studies conclude that demand will exceed supply by 2050, others say we should be OK on supply until 2100.  I could not find a study that was optimistic about lithium supply beyond 2100. Stanford University has published some good work on the subject; here is one:

Eric Eason, Stanford University has done some interesting research on lithium supply as it relates to EV batteries.  Keep in mind that over a billion mobile phones are produced globally every year so there is great demand outside EV needs. Having said that Mr. Eason concludes that if we could use the entire world’s lithium reserves, we can make 4.1 billion medium-sized EV batteries.  That means, with half the world’s vehicles electric (700 million and increasing) and with a battery life of about 10 years, the known lithium reserves will be gone by 2080.

Mr. Eason’s concluding remark is, “It is certainly possible to build millions of electric vehicles with lithium-ion batteries, but it may not be possible to make billions of them.”  We will need billions and billions.  And keep in mind that carbon emissions from vehicles represents only 15% of the total of the world’s green-house gas problem.

Supply and demand.  Every time a truckload of lithium ore departs the mining area, world supply goes down as demand is increasing exponentially. Lithium carbonate prices have increased 413% since the start of 2021.  What does that portent for the price of EVs?

Let me be clear, lithium is not the overriding issue in the green revolution.  But, I do believe it is emblematic of what is going on.  President Biden and Department of Energy Secretary Granholm seem fixated on EVs in America as if that is THE overriding solution to carbon emissions. We ae engaged in a soundbite planning regime. Have we heard anyone in the current administration talk about any of the issues in the above paragraphs?  No.  No details, just a soundbite end state. No accounting for the massive number of assumptions they have made and the absence of factual content.  Where is the expert testimony from Congressional committee hearings? Where is the long-range strategic plan from the Energy Department?

Should we consider ALTERNATIVES TO ELECTRIC VEHICLES?

Liquefied and compressed natural gas; both are fuel-efficient for vehicles. They are not expensive to build and reduce carbon monoxide emissions by over 90% compared to gas-power.  The U.S. has about 500 trillion cubic feet of known reserves of recoverable natural gas.  It is estimated that there is at least 800 trillion cubic feet of natural gas under the African continent. Over 100 countries have known, recoverable reserves of natural gas.

Is natural gas a viable alternative to gas/diesel powered vehicles?  Here is a statement from Waste Management Inc.  “Transitioning our fleet (4000 of 16,000 trucks) from diesel to natural gas yields a range of environmental benefits, including saving over 350 million gallons of fuel and reducing about 3.5 million metric tons of CO₂ emissions. Our vehicles powered by compressed natural gas (CNG) have nearly zero particulate emissions, cut greenhouse gas emissions by over 20 percent, and are far quieter than their diesel counterparts.”

What have we heard from the Biden administration about natural gas-powered vehicles as a supplement or alternative?  Nothing, because their tunnel vision on electric vehicles is an unfailing 20-20. 

Should we consider ALTERNATIVES TO POWER FROM WIND AND SOLAR? 

Electricity generation emits more carbon dioxide in the United States than does transportation or industry, and nuclear power is the largest source of carbon-free electricity in the country. Nuclear power generation is also relatively cheap. Here is the problem; due to government regulations, environmentalists’ concerns and law suits, it takes anywhere from 20 to 30 years from inception to bringing a nuclear power plant on line in the U.S.  Nuclear power plants are safe, clean and produce the cheapest power; a reliable source of clean energy

China has 27 nuclear power reactors in operation, 24 under construction and is planning to construct seven new nuclear power plants annually between now and 2030. By 2050, nuclear power should exceed 400 new nuclear reactors; a trillion-dollar investment.

There are 93 nuclear reactors operating in the U.S. at 55 locations in 28 states.  Eight new licenses have been issued and two nuclear sites are under construction.  

However, the face of nuclear energy is changing.  Oklo, a 22-person Silicon Valley start-up company has a plan to build mini-nuclear reactors, powered by the waste from conventional nuclear reactors.

Their concept is to build a micro-reactor in a year or less to power, for example, utility companies, industrial sites, large companies, medium-sized communities and university campuses. 

Are small reactors a viable option?  The U.S. Navy commissioned its first nuclear powered ship in 1961.  There are currently 80 nuclear powered ships in the U.S. Navy with over 5,700 reactor-years of safe operations. Yes, small reactors, brought on line quickly can provide the U.S. with cheap, clean, safe power.

What have we heard from the Biden Administration or Congress about fast-tracking construction of hundreds of cheap, safe, efficient, power generation facilities with mini-nuclear reactors? Nothing, because it conflicts with their tunnel vision on wind and solar. How do we recharge our car, iPhone, laptop, lawn mower, hand tools, etc. etc. etc. if the sun doesn’t shine and/or the wind doesn’t blow?

CONCLUSIONS:

Every element in the earth’s crust is finite with some minerals already in short supply. The potential massive demand for lithium may well place this mineral on the list of “rare earth metals.”

While the supply and demand for lithium is presently balanced, many of the on-going studies have concluded that sustainability of the long-term supply of lithium is at risk. Therefore, we should consider developing alternate options for reducing carbon buildup from the transportation sector; e.g., natural gas-powered vehicles.  

Vehicles contribute about 15% of the world-wide carbon build-up.  If half the vehicles become electric, we may end up transforming world-wide transportation for a nominal 7% saving.  

By the turn of the next century, it is conceivable that we will have a world with literally billions of junked EVs with no batteries.

Lithium battery technology has been evolving for over 50 years. Economically feasible recycling of batteries must take center stage now.

China’s control of the world’s lithium reserves as well as the production of lithium carbonate can become a game-change.  While the cost of an EV is already out of reach for most of the world’s population, the future cost of the battery alone could put the price of most electric vehicles too high for billions more people. 

Carbon build-up is a world problem.  Analysis of the Paris Accords indicates that only a few of the 195 countries can afford to play a meaningful role in the green revolution. Wind, solar and moving water are the only renewable sources of power. Moving towards production of a large percentage of power from wind turbines and solar farms is too expensive for most countries to implement.  Power supplies from both wind and solar have to be backed up with some alternative source for when the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine.

Mining, transporting and processing leading to the construction of wind turbines and solar farms requires such massive amounts of earth materials and power that the net carbon reduction is drastically reduced; a factor not discussed by green advocates.

Power demand and consumption will continue to rise as, many experts predict, the world population grows to 11 billion in the next few decades. We should consider rapid development of reliable, clean power production alternatives; e.g., nuclear.

BOTTOM LINE:

We are at the front end of a dramatic transition for mother earth. For eons humans have been removing unrenewable substances from the earth.  But there has always been so much of “it” that we didn’t notice and neither our lives nor decision making were negatively impacted by shortages.  But now we are in the process of determining remaining reserves of that which has become essential to the everyday lives of 8 billion people.  We are counting the billions of barrels of oil remaining, the trillions of cubic feet of natural gas, the billions of tons of iron ore and copper, sources of clean water and we already have a working-list of earth’s rare metals.

About 6.6 billion people have a smartphone.  The magic in the glass is due to a dash of the rare metal indium which serves as the transparent conductor between the phone and your finger. A little europium and terbium provide red and green hues on the screen, a speck of tantalum regulates power and lithium stores the power.  These and other rare earth metals are essential to most of our communications gadgets, cars, etc.  Someday all of these earth materials will be used up. The same assumption applies to crude oil, natural gas, uranium, trees, iron ore, clean water, etc.

While the degradation of natural resources has been going on for centuries, we are now, for the first time, face to face with the reality that we cannot do something that needs to be done because we will run out of some essential resource, for example lithium.  From now on, if we are provided with a new technology that will make our lives better, we will have to pause and ask, is there enough mineral reserves available to sustain the capability? Will one nation be able to control the outcome?  Will this further divide the world’s nations into the “haves” and “have-nots”?  This is a new revelation for the world but unfortunately, we see our nation’s leaders single-mindedly plowing ahead, the facts be damned, believing other nations will follow when it is obvious they will not because they can not.

Mother earth is in an unstoppable retrograde.  At some point in the future, be it two or three hundred years, what remains of the human race will in all likelihood live in a rural sixteen-hundreds type of self-sustaining environment.

Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO EXECUTION, a book for leaders, and a new book May 2022, FIX THE SYSTEMS, TRANSFORM AMERICA as well as the author of a blog WeThePeopleSpeaking.com.

The Columbine High School massacre occurred April 20, 1999.  Seems like yesterday.  How many similar school shooting since then?  Too many.

Let’s begin with an abbreviated after-action review of the shooting in Texas this week; the Good, Better, How process.

First question, what did they do good?  Law enforcement was on the scene ASAP. The shooter was taken down ASAP.

Second, what could they have done better?  In this case about everything.

Third, how do we go about institutionalizing what needs to be done to, the maximum extent possible, prevent this ever happening again?  That is the intent of what follows.

Old saying, “If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there.”  Absolutely true.  That is why every planning action must begin with a statement of the problem. 

PROBLEMS:

Current solutions revolve around the rapid arrival of law enforcement personnel.  They arrive in minutes.  We need to counter the attack in seconds.

Multiple law enforcement agencies will arrive on the scene simultaneously.  No one is in charge.

It is unlikely there will be any pre-planned immediate first responder counter actions.

Law enforcement arrivals, generally speaking, will not be intimately familiar with the terrain; “parking lot #3” or “in the west wing” or “room 18” will likely be meaningless information. 

Where will the first responders go for an initial briefing by someone on the scene?

If there are in-school individuals countering the shooter, who are they, where are they?

In the last two decades of school shootings has there ever been any in-place 24/7 deterrent actions? Not that I have heard of.

A current culture of hate and blame in America is reinforcement for a potential shooter.

WHO ARE THE SHOOTERS?  Here is a scenario that I believe is not too far-fetched. In most of the school massacres the shooter, after the fact, has been tagged as a “loner.”  Perhaps the young man is not a loner by choice.  Let’s say he is perceived by his fellow students as socially awkward, or not handsome, or has a handicap, bad hair, bad clothes, bad hygiene, whatever.  He can easily become a victim of social bullying that is so prevalent today.  He develops a hatred for schools in general, for his former school, for his current school and the people that are there every day. His absence from external socializing drives him to video games to occupy his time.  His parents feel relieved that he has some interest to turn to.  At the end of the day, he “wins” his video game because he has killed the most people.  In his demented mind killing is a game.  Etc. etc.

Given the above problems, here is a CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS TO DETER AND, IF DETERRENCE FAILS, COUNTER AN IN-SCHOOL SHOOTER.

DETERRENT ACTIONS:

Because of the timeline associated with a school shooting (the arrival of first responders will always be outside the window of vulnerability), there must be a school Security Force in-place every second of every school day.  More on this in a few minutes. If the shooter has given any thought to where his target is, he may well be aware he could be walking into a Security Force death trap. Institutionalized deterrence.

Because of the need for multiple fire exits from a school, all exit-only doors become potential breach points.  Have a camera on the door at all times and live feed to the “security rooms”.  When that door is breached from the outside, flashing lights and a unique audio alarm will immediately alert the Security Force. Physical and technical deterrence.

Every school has multiple fire alarm mechanisms on the wall in the hallways that can be activated by anyone sensing a fire.  Add a second alarm for anyone seeing a gun or sensing there is a shooter in the school. Every person in the building is authorized to pull the alarm if necessary. Every student becomes a player in security. Have a camera observing the alarm to preclude pranksters from activating it.  The shooter alarm must have a very distinctive sound and be frequently tested. When that alarm goes off it will initiate a number of actions.  Every classroom will get locked down from the inside. The Security Force will react immediately and initiate pre-planned actions. A deterrent action providing peace of mind to everyone on campus.

THE SECURITY FORCE:

In today’s school systems, typically about half the total number of employees are not in the classrooms; janitors, school bus maintenance personnel, counselors, nurses, the principal, etc. Also, typically there will be a position for an Assistant (or Vice) Principal to perform admin duties, scheduling, oversee testing, supervise lunch, hallways, special events, etc. 

In this concept of operations, the Assistant Principal becomes, as his/her first priority, the leader of the Security Force. That leader will designate someone to be second in command in order that 100% of the time school is in session, one of them will be in the school and ready to react.

The Security Force can be put together from, in my concept, the non-teaching employees.  Depending on the size of the school, perhaps anywhere from four to ten individuals will be needed. Four to ten is a good span of control for one tactical leader.  If a school system has hired a full-time security person, they will also be a full-time member of the force but not necessarily the leader. Members or the force will respond better to directions from the second most senior person in the school than from a fellow-employee (It’s a human nature thing).

No school employee should be forced to be in a position to use a gun.  Therefore, filling the Security Force with volunteers will be a priority.

The Security Force will of course undergo extensive and recurring training in marksmanship.  But just as important will be situational tactical training.  Throughout the U.S. local law enforcement will avail themselves of live-fire facilities that teach how to take down a room and how to react to a hostile situation in that room. That type training is aways filmed so that it can be critiqued and prepare someone to react instantly to varying situations.

Training to neutralize a shooter is all about tasks, conditions and standards. The training regimen must define all the tasks required under every varying condition and to a specified standard. Security Force members who cannot meet the standards must be replaced.  Over time skills deteriorate.  Training is not a once-and-done drill.  Repeat it whenever it is necessary.

Somewhere in the school there will be “security rooms.”  In those rooms there will be a monitor for all the cameras that look at the exit-only doors.  The doors will be wired so that when a door is breached from the outside the monitor will immediately provide a flashing red light and an audio alarm.  A monitor will necessarily be in the Security Force leader’s office, in that of his second in command and probably in the full-time security person’s office. 

DAY-TO-DAY SECURITY FORCE:  Every member will carry a small radio that is active every minute of the school day.  There will be no chatter or admin communications; it will be used only when there is a shooter alarm of any kind.  Additionally, every member will have at their immediate disposal a red body armor vest; red to distinguish them as an armed Security Force member when the first responders arrive. Don’t shoot the good guys.

In each member’s place of duty, mounted on the wall next to their red vest, will be a metal box with a key pad.  Inside the box will be three things, 1) a loaded/round chambered hand gun, 2) a lanyard with one master key to open every classroom and 3) a lanyard configured to carry additional magazines for the hand gun (because most often, lady’s apparel does not have pockets).

What are we describing here?  Doing all of the above will solve the most serious part of the present-day problem.  First responders will arrive ASAP but that is some number of minutes.  We must have a response in seconds. First responders will arrive ASAP at the shooter’s location in some number of minutes.  “ASAP” must be defined as some minimum number of seconds or kids will die.

For example, the monitor alarm in one of the security rooms goes off indicating a breach of exit-only door three.  Through prior planning and many training rehearsals here is what happens:

Within a specified standard number of seconds every Security Force member must be out of their office door with a vest, two lanyards, a weapon and their radio.  Through prior detailed planning and training, Security Force members Tom and Sara are closest to the breach; they will go directly there in a specified, rehearsed number of seconds reporting all their actions over the radio for every member to hear. Continuous situational awareness.  All other member will report in “X” seconds with their gear to a designated assembly area in that building. 

An astute student believes they can see the butt of a pistol sticking out of the jacket pocket of someone moving down the hallway.  They know they are empowered to pull the shooter alarm hanging on the wall.  The monitor in the security rooms will indicate the location of the alarm mechanism.  The first order over the security force radio will be “west wing, third floor”. Through countless trial runs during training, the Security Force leader knows he should have at least one member arriving at that location within “X” seconds with everyone who is present for duty within “Y” seconds.

Shots fired.  One immediate radio call to the entire Security Force from whomever hears the shot; “shots fired in building one.”  There is nothing else required at that time. Everyone goes to a pre-designated assemble point in that building.  The Security Force leader or his/her assistant would call 911 because they can provide the greatest clarity at that point without the emotion most people would have.

TRAINING:

If I was a county superintendent of schools, I would set this program in motion, explain it in detail to the County Sheriff and local Chiefs of Police, ask for their assistance in providing training areas (ranges and shooting houses) and provide training assistance throughout the year.  Include them in unannounced response training sessions for the Security Force.

There is one critical element in the training regimen that must be considered.  A member of the Security Force may be the best marksman, may get exceptional scores in the shooting house but the leader also has to be comfortable with that person’s mental status.  Are they comfortable with executing the concept of “taking a life to save a life”?  Can they be relied on to pull the trigger if and when it becomes necessary?   

CONCLUSIONS:

Accountability: This program does not need permission from the president or the U.S. Congress; although they should applaud it. It does not require state law or the Governors’ approval; but they could fund the security person for each school. County Boards of Education, superintendents and principals are accountable for the existence and professionalism of such a program.  This is all about decentralized planning and execution.

The deterrent Security Force will be available every school day. There are no conflicts with personnel being on vacation. Everyone involved is expected to be at work every day.  No requirement nights, weekends and only for half the year; 180 school days, 185 non-school days per year.

Reaction timing, seconds vs minutes, solves the problems articulated above.

Deterrence: Someone, however deranged may think twice about knowing he is walking into a potential death trap against the on-campus Security Force. Future attempts to shoot up a school are likely to be unsuccessful and get national attention; deterrence in action.

BOTTOM LINE:

Security Force mission statement:  Sustain the actions necessary to deter future shooters from acting out against schools and if deterrence fails be capable every minute of every school day to take out the shooter(s) in seconds.

If security is not internal to the school, help will be too little and too late.  More kids will die. 

This program is not hard, not expensive and clearly within the art of the possible. It is far better than what we have now which is nothing but hope.  Hope is not a process. 

Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO EXECUTION, a book for leaders, and a new book May 2022, FIX THE SYSTEMS, TRANSFORM AMERICA.

DO WE NEED A STRONG MILITARY IN PEACETIME?

The short answer to the question, do we need a strong military in peacetime is, yes, we do.  The problem is, the Democrat Party DNA says, no we don’t. For example:

During the Carter administration,1977-1981, America’s military went “hollow.” That is, the services lacked the manpower, training, readiness and equipment to protect U.S. interests worldwide.  It was a very dangerous move because we were in the midst of the Cold War when the Soviet Union and nuclear annihilation was a daily concern.

Although President Reagan did the best he could to rebuild the military in the 1980s, President Clinton accentuated the post-Cold War so called “peace dividend” and defense spending cuts took readiness to a low not seen for decades.

Between 1993 and 2001, the Clinton Administration cut national defense by more than half a million personnel and $50 billion in inflation-adjusted dollars. The Army lost four active divisions and two reserve divisions. The number of total active personnel in the Air Force decreased by nearly 30 percent. The total number of Navy ships decreased by 20%, from 393 to 316. The Marine Corps end-strength dropped 22,000 personnel. Beyond the force cuts, acquisition of new equipment and modernization dropped to near zero.  The tactical force; tanks, helicopters, Bradley fighting vehicles, surface ships, submarines, bombers, and tactical aircraft, was worn out when President Bush took office.

After President Bush rebuilt the military to the extent he could in order to take on the global war on terrorism, the Obama/Biden administration took the military to new lows in readiness. When Obama left office, the Army had one, only ONE, combat brigade that was fully combat ready and half our Airforce and Naval airplanes could not get off the ground. Studies in 2017 suggested, “it will take an estimated eight to ten years for readiness in the services to recover.”

The mission of the U.S. military is two-fold.  One, the obvious, fight and win the nation’s wars.   The second, less obvious, in times of peace, deter war. Without being ready to win we risk everything.  Without deterrence we live our daily lives hoping our enemies will not attack.  But hope is not a process.   Without a ready, powerful, known quantity force, without the will and judgement of civilian leaders to use that strength properly, we are increasingly vulnerable every day. 

DETERRENT FORCE DEFINED:

A strong deterrent force is peace of mind.  Our enemies, Russia, China, Iran, North Korea and the world-wide terrorist networks have to know and believe that if they strike the U.S. there will be hell to pay; immediately.  Fear of being defeated must be a leading factor in our enemys’ decision processes. 

The U.S. military has two main purposes; to deter our enemies from engaging us in warfare, and if that fails, to defeat them in combat. Deterrence is only possible if the opposing force believes it will be defeated. Respect is not good enough; fear and certainty are required.

A point of clarification; often, we refer to a positive deterrent posture as a “strong defense.”  That is a misnomer, actually it is better defined as a strong, overwhelming offensive capability. Deterrence is our enemies knowing we are prepared to take our forces anywhere, anytime and defeat them. 

THE THREAT IS REAL AND EMIMENT:

In the early days of our Revolutionary War 4,000 British troops were sent to occupy Boston and put down the rebellion.  Total defeat of the American independence movement was a possibility.  During our Civil War, there were times of great doubt that the United States could ever again be a “united” states.  But not since those two historic events has our nation been as vulnerable as it is today.

We are vulnerable to “attack” in various ways by one or more of the following enemies; China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and terrorist organizations.

IRAN: The Supreme Leader has repeatedly declared that it is Iran’s duty to destroy America and Israel. Recent reports indicate Iran is “close” to having a nuclear weapon. Biden’s reduced sanctions is leading to a more aggressive Iran, increased support for global terrorism, a more destabilized Middle East and a greater threat to the U.S.

TERRORISTS: Iran will use the fall of Afghanistan to provide direction and support of a safe haven for terrorist training in Afghanistan thereby ratcheting up the global war on terror with a particular focus on taking down the United States. 

NORTH KOREA: On 4 May 2021, after Trump was no longer on overwatch, NK resumed missile testing.  Biden, “We will respond if North Korea escalates.”  Mr. President, renewed missile testing is escalation!  January 2022, NK conducted seven test missile launches.

RUSSIA:  Since the end of the cold war, the strength of NATO has served as the deterrent to Putin’s expansionist plans. Obviously, those days are over.

The pipeline cyberattack on the U.S. oil pipeline, May, 2021 was a Russian proof of concept trial balloon with zero ramification. Should anyone believe Putin is above using that list to take down our country?

CHINA:  They are already several years into executing a long-range strategic plan to rule the world and reduce U.S. global influence. Part of that plan is to take over Taiwan and control everything in the South China Sea. U.S. policy continues to be, “assist Taiwan in maintaining it defensive capability.” Most China experts believe the threat of invasion of Taiwan is, “unabated, if not heightened.” 

WHAT CAN DESTROY US?

Cyberattack: Unlike the Cold war when we and NATO allies protected against a nuclear and/or ground attack in Europe by the Soviets, cyberattack is the most likely threat to the U.S. today. For example:  There are thirty substations in our nation’s electric grid operations. A Federal Energy Regulatory Commission report says, “Destroy nine interconnection substations and the entire US grid could be down for at least 18 months, probably longer.”  Within weeks tens of millions would perish; the U.S., as we know it today, would not survive. Nations capable of cyberattack; China, Russia, North Korea and Iran.

EMP:  An electromagnetic pulse, a huge burst of electromagnetic energy from a nuclear explosion high in the atmosphere, would instantly shutdown all transportation, computers, networks, electronic equipment, medical and communication systems.  We could not survive an EMP strike.  Nations capable of doing this; China, Russia, North Korea and (soon?), Iran.

HOW TO BUILD AND SUSTAIN AN EFFECTIVE DETERRENT FORCE:

Deterrence is both a state of mind and actual capability. Deterrence is developed and sustained by simultaneously working four initiatives:  1) Deterrent actions directly from our leaders, 2) By demonstrating capability, 3) Long-range strategic top-down planning and 4) From the bottom-up.

DETERRENCE DIRECTLY FROM OUR LEADERS, two examples:

During his tenure as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of staff, 1989-1993, General Colin Powell played a key deterrence card by inviting his Soviet counterpart, General Akhromeyev, Chief of the General staff of the Soviet Union’s armed forces, to visit the U.S.  First stop was an aircraft carrier. On the deck of the carrier were Navy enlisted sailors orchestrating a virtual ballet as aircraft were positioned, launched, recovered, clearing the deck for a continuous flow of aircraft; (I can testify that it is a remarkable thing to observe). When General Akhromeyev asked the carrier commander, a Naval captain, the average age of the those working the deck and making split-second decisions, the reply was, “probably about 21”, Akhromeyev turned to Gen Powell and said, “We cannot win.”

The final stop on the tour was the U.S. Army National Training Center in the California desert where they observed an ongoing battle between a Soviet tank regiment with actual Soviet equipment manned with U.S. soldiers and commanders using Soviet tactics, techniques and procedures against a U.S. armored brigade.  General Powell explained that all of our heavy forces regularly rotate to the National Training Center to train.  He further explained the when this type of training was initiated some years earlier the Soviet force always won; but no more, now we never lose. Deterrence in action.

Second example: Speaking before the UN General Assembly, September 2017, the North Korean foreign minister warned that a nuclear strike against the U.S. mainland is “inevitable.” North Korea, with an estimated 20-40 nuclear weapons, was actively engaged in testing nuclear weapons, long-range missiles and submarine-launched missiles.  Are they capable of attacking the US?  Yes. Did President Trump send representatives to a meeting of officials from both sides to some off-site location to discuss NK aggressive talk?  No, President Trump personally traveled to Asia three times to meet one-on-one with Kim Jong-Un.  There are no official releases of their private conversations but here is one possible scenario.  We have seen pictures of Kim at his sea-side retreat riding his big white stallion.  President Trump might have passed an eight-by-ten, close-up photo with a recent date/time stamp of Kim out riding.  Trump may have added verbally, Kim, we know where you are 24/7 and can reach out to you in many ways with a moment’s notice. The nuclear and long-range missile testing stopped. Deterrence, up close and personal.

DETERRENCE BY DEMONSTRATING CAPABILITY:

The U.S. has the greatest capability for world-wide force-projection.  For example, the world watched in awe in 1990 as the U.S. deployed an overwhelming heavy force to the Gulf War and, in two days of fighting, defeated Iraqi forces which had invaded Kuwait.  That remarkable action did not go unnoticed by our friends and potential enemys.

DETERRENCE RESULTING FROM LONG-RANGE STRATEGIC TOP-DOWN PLANNING:

The Executive and Legislative branches of government need to constantly encourage and task the private sector to lead the world in development of the most lethal and effective offensive and defensive warfighting systems.  Hypersonic missiles and the defense thereof represent the latest high-tech military systems. 

Hypersonic weapons fly at speeds of at least Mach 5 and are highly maneuverable and able to change course during flight; capabilities that gives any country a considerable advantage, because such weapons can evade just about any defense system currently in use.

The U.S. posture on Hypersonic weapons, as explained by General John Hyden, former vice chairman of the Joint chiefs of Staff in 2020, “It doesn’t matter what the threat is; if you can’t see it, you can’t defend against it. We don’t have any defense that could deny the deployment of such a weapon against us. Our defense is deterrent capability.”  U.S. defense officials call hypersonic weapons, “A game changer.”

The U.S. does not currently have a defense against Chinese and Russian hypersonic weapons. 

CREATE AND SUSTAIN A CREDIBLE DETERRENT FORCE FROM THE BOTTOM-UP:

The Army always has been and always will be a product of America.  Those entering come from every background, every community and even some with questionable alliances with radical groups such as white supremacists; but they all have one thing in common, they volunteered and, like it or not, they are going to be brain-washed and indoctrinated.

Day one: At the end of that first day in the Army they all have the same hair style, that is, no hair, and they all are dressed alike; there is a reason what soldiers wear is called a “uniform.”

Many will arrive with a chip on their shoulder based on their upbringing, education, talent, physical prowess etc.  But that chip gets knocked off very quickly by a drill instructor who has been especially selected and trained based on his or her abilities to read people and indoctrinate/train them.  It’s not a complex formula, just “tear them down and build them all over again.”

Day two: they begin to understand that their life in the Army will revolve around two concepts.  One is the mission and secondly, above all else, you are responsible for the person on your right and left.  Soon it begins to sink in that if I am responsible for those on my right and left, that means they are also responsible for me.  One day it’s a white guy, perhaps the next day it’s a black gal.  Hmmm, “interesting concept”, they say to themselves, “someone always has my back, I’m not alone, this is my team.”

From day-three on until their enlistment is completed or they are retiring from service as a professional soldier, they will understand that they are expected to stand out.  They are expected to be all they can be.  They will not be judged, positively or negatively by the color of their skin.  They will understand that the best and the brightest will move up the ranks and become their leaders. They understand that personal and professional accountability, trust and respect are the underpinnings of everything, everyone, every day; understand it, live it, expect it, respect it. Meritocracy is the norm, it’s their new life. 

Yes, the U.S. military has always believed in President Biden’s consistent assertion that Americans should be guided by, “equity, diversity and inclusion.”  But, and this is a big but, to soldiers, “equity” is everyone believing they can be all they can be. “Diversity” is the freedom to improvise and innovate at the point of execution.  “Inclusion” is being part of a team so steeped in trust and respect that they believe they cannot and will not fail.  

National deterrence begins with these individual service members believing in themselves, believing in their teammates, believing in their leaders and believing they can kick-ass anywhere in the world. 

 There is only one overriding standard for military capability: lethality.

CONCLUSIONS:

We are more vulnerable than ever in our history and much more today than just two years ago.  What causes a nation to become vulnerable?  In a word, weakness; either real or perceived and sometimes perception is more dangerous than reality.

August 14-16, 2021 has already become one of the “defining moments” in the history of this great country.  While Afghanistan provincial capitals were falling to the Taliban, on average two per day, President Biden flew away to begin his vacation.  As the situation deteriorated, we were repeatedly told by White House staff that the president was in “constant contact with his principals.” Not true. In this context, “contact” would be in the situation room with the president and senior subordinates interchanging ideas, making decisions and issuing orders.

With thousands of American civilians in the grip of Taliban soldiers, Biden returned to the White House to deliver a prepared script telling us that his decisions have been correct.  Following his speech, having generated more questions than answers, he literally and figuratively turned his back on America and the media and exited stage left returning to his helicopter to resume his vacation.  An “F” in leadership 101 observed around the world.

By August, 2021, our deterrence, built up over decades, was fading.  Trust and respect by our allies were in question.  Fear and respect by our enemies was in short supply.  The Afghanistan debacle viewed live around the world and described by Biden as an “extraordinary success” was the final nail in our deterrence coffin. 

The American people and our allies want to know who is pulling the strings on our marionette Commander in Chief; Obama, Valerie Jerrett, Susan Rice, Chief of Staff Ron Klain, national Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, VP Harris or all of the above?  When everyone is in charge, no one is in charge. Our enemies see America in free-fall and they will likely test us while we are most vulnerable.

BOTTOM LINE:

What goes on in the U.S. is carefully watched around the world. Our allies and enemies, look at our Commander in Chief and assess his leadership, judgment, cooperation.  What have they observed in the last 16 months?

The U.S. became the envy of the world when we became energy independent.  They saw the new president destroy that with the stroke of a pen four hours after being inaugurated with zero explanation or consultation.  

They saw him, again with the stroke of a pen, shut down ongoing efforts to secure our southern border from massive illegal immigration, drugs, criminals, sex traffickers, gang members and terrorists and thereby creating an open border situation and threatening national security.

They listened to him take a simple opposing campaign slogan, “Make America Great Again” MAGA, and label 70 million adult Americans who voted against him, “The MAGA crowd is the most extreme political organization that’s existed in recent American history.” Are our friends wondering about his judgement and rationale?  Yes, they are.

Our enemies watched North Korea challenge the new president immediately after taking office by resuming missile and nuclear testing. Biden’s reaction? Zero. Game on, its now open season against the U.S. by those who openly express a desire to see our complete collapse.

Our closest allies carefully observed how Biden would interact with our strongest long-time ally in the Middle East, Israel. Biden’s ignoring Israel is not setting well. 

Our allies and enemies have watched in awe as Biden has lifted sanctions from Iran thus creating their emboldened support for world terrorism and disruption in the fragile Middle East.  Our former allies are asking, “When will I get thrown under the preverbal bus?”

For the first time in my memory, important leaders in the world, such as Saudi Arabia, U.A.E and Russia, have refused to take Biden’s phone calls. Is that lost on the remainder of the world?  Not for a second. Respect or lack thereof.

Our friends watched in horror as Biden, again without consultation, lifted the “international terrorist organization” label from the Houthis in Yemen as they continue, with Iran’s backing and support, to attack our long-time friend and ally, Saudi Arabia.  

Just three months in office, Biden was tested by Putin when Russia conducted a limited (proof of concept) cyber attack on the U.S. by shutting down a fuel pipeline servicing much of the mid-east coast. The U.S. responded a month later when Biden and Putin met briefly at a G7 conference in Switzerland. Biden’s response was to provide Putin a list of 16 critical infrastructure targets that, “should be off-limits to attack, period, by cyber or any other means.”  Can you just imagine Putin telling that story to his senior staff back in the Kremlin?

To be “the leader of the free world” Biden must earn the respect and trust of the American people and our allies while also being respected, if not feared, by our enemies. Respect and trust must be earned by actions and deeds. That is phase 1 of deterrence, not some cheap sound-bite like, “America is back.”

FINAL THOUGHT:

We are vulnerable because our deterrent posture has been shattered.  Our friends no longer respect or trust us and our enemies no longer fear us; aka, “The perfect storm.”

 Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO EXECUTION, a book for leaders, and a new book, May 2022, FIX THE SYSTEMS, TRANSFORM AMERICA and a columnist for THE PILOT, a national award-winning local newspaper in Southern Pines, NC as well as the author of a blog, WeThePeopleSpeaking.com.

Author’s note:  30 years ago right now Los Angeles was on fire and 10,000 rioters and looters were systematically destroying the city.  What follows is a first-hand account of that event, never before published until today.  It is a sad story in our history that many of you may not be aware of. 

Background:  March, 1991 the nation saw, on film, five white LA police officers brutally beat a black gentleman, Rodney King.

While all of us had viewed the taped beating over and over in great close-up detail, a year later those five police officers were found not guilty by an all-white jury.  That verdict was announced at 3:15 pm 29 April, 1992. At that time I was commanding the 7^th Infantry Division at Fort Ord, California.  The 7^th ID was an especially designed light division capable of rapid deployment to anywhere in the world.

Three hours later, by 6 pm, riots were breaking out all over Los Angles, but primarily in South-Central LA. It escalated like a wild fire and the final tally was as follows: 55 killed, over 2000 injured, about $1 Billion dollars in damages, over 10,000 rioters were directly involved in looting and destruction, over 1000 buildings seriously damaged or destroyed, the fire department responded to more than 4000 fires. This was not taking place at 5^th and Main, it covered an area of about 100 square miles of built-up urban terrain; by far the most difficult terrain in which to perform a military operation.  Largest riot in US history.

President George H.W. Bush dispatched 1000 Federal riot-trained law enforcement officials, FBI SWAT teams, special riot control units of the US Marshals Service, Border Patrol, Bureau of Prisons personnel and other Federal law enforcement agencies.  Governor Pete Wilson was on the scene full-time with a small staff.  The California National Guard began rolling towards LA.  On scene was the LA Chief of Police Daryl Gates and the LA County Sherriff, Sherman Block.  Gathered in outlying areas was most of the California Highway Patrol.  A brigade of Marines from Camp Pendleton had been alerted.  But there was no plan.

At about the 36-hour point, May 1^st at about 2 a.m. we, 7^th Infantry Division, Fort Ord California, received a call from our military higher headquarters in Atlanta, and were told, “a military force may be needed in LA but don’t do anything yet.”  Dumb order; we immediately began to plan for a rapid deployment.  Six hours later at about 0800 we received a second call, “there will be a military deployment but it will not be the 7^th ID.”  CNN was following everything related to the riots live and continuously.  Thirty minutes later we watched President Bush, live on TV, walk into the White House Briefing Room and announce, “I have decided to deploy elements of the 7^th ID to LA.”  Game on. 

Rapid deployment, in general, is very difficult with lots of moving parts.  We trained to it continuously.  We just happened to have two C-141 Air Force transport aircraft on the ground for training at nearby Monterey airport.  The “ready brigade” began immediately to move and the airlift to LAX began. 

By noon I was on the ground in LA with a skeleton planning staff.  What became immediately apparent was that no ONE was in charge of the multitude of federal, state or local agencies involved. All I could see and sense was chaos. And most concerning was that the California National Guard continued to stream into the city with no deployment plan in play.

No one in my chain of command up to and including General Colin Powell, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, knew President Bush was going to make that deployment announcement.  I had no guidance and never did get any. Old saying, when in charge, take charge.

I had a dozen of the Division’s best majors (I called them my iron majors) flown in the first afternoon and I assigned them as my personal liaison to the Governor, Mayor, Chief Gates, Sherriff Block, Highway Patrol, all the Federal Agencies, the CA National Guard and the Marines. Before dispatching them, I looked them in the eye and told them exactly what they were to do. “You stay about 3 feet from your principal at all times and tell me everything they do, everything they say and who they communicate with. There can be only one boss of this mess and it’s me.  You understand?”  Their first mission was to get their principal on a conference call with me that evening at which time I gave the participants my first deployment briefing and told them to thereafter be on a conference call with me at 8 a.m. every day wherein I would give them an overall assessment of the night’s activities and what was to be accomplished in the next 24 hours.  Principals only on the conference call. The Governor was not amused about the “principals only” part and it got a little ugly but it worked. 

The day we arrived on the scene the city was shut down, 24-hour curfew.  There was no public transportation.  All stores were closed.  People were running out of food.  No one told me what our mission was.  I knew the public needed to know.  Was this Marshall Law?  Were we going to be patrolling with tanks in the streets? So, in a press conference the first afternoon, I tried to make it as clear as possible that we were there to create a safe and secure environment so the city could systematically resume all operations.  It worked.  Community support was outstanding. 

As if President Bush’s surprise deployment announcement at 0830 that morning wasn’t enough; he saved another one for later in the day.  At 6 pm CA time, 9 pm at the White House, President Bush presented an update briefing to the nation.  First topic of the speech was, “I have decided to Federalize the California National Guard.”  At that moment, with those words, I became the Commander of the CA National Guard and they all became federal US Army soldiers.  That was actually a blessing because we immediately took charge of their rally points, established training stations (particularly to train rules of engagement) and integrated them into the overall deployment plan. 

The overall plan was simple; a soldier on every street corner to establish a “presence”.  Sustainment was not simple.  How do you feed 12,000 soldiers and Marines scattered over 100 square miles of urban terrain?  How do you communicate with them?  Where do they sleep and shower?  How many Quick Reaction Forces do we need? 

Since we only deployed communications trucks, how did we transport 12,000 soldiers and Marines around the city?  Simple, we had the mayor recall all the city bus drivers and got them rolling. 

We trained hard every day and night at Ft Ord to be able to rapidly close with and destroy the enemy.  No enemy in LA.  My first task was to solve that problem. How do you tell each individual soldier what he can and cannot do?  I wrote the rules of engagement while in plane on the way down, called them back to my chief of staff who had printing people standing by.  Thousands of 3×5 cards printed with the ROE were soon available.  One for every soldier and marine to have in his or her breast pocket.  

Soldiers flew into LAX, were loaded onto city buses and transported to an abandoned air strip in the middle of Central/South LA.  Every squad leader and his or her soldiers began at the head of the strip and moved from station to station observing scenarios that were being briefed and played out to illustrate the rules of engagement.  First rule: everyone has the inherent right of self-defense.  At the end of the air strip, they were issued ammunition, got back on a bus and were deployed.  By the middle of the first night, we had all 12,000 trained and deployed. 

Communications in flat urban terrain is very difficult with line-of-site FM ratios.  Cell phones were in their infancy.  We cut a deal to provide security to the folks who owned the cell towers in exchange for 100 cell phones.  We quickly published a phone directory and got the cell phones into the hands of battalion and company commanders. 

We politely raided every tourist shop and book store we could find and “procured” all their city maps.  One to every squad leader. 

I published and signed a letter making every battalion commander an authorized “government purchasing agent”.  I should still be in jail for that one but we knew the answer if we had asked permission to do that.  Why?  Food distribution was difficult and not always timely.  A company commander would find a vehicle, drive outside the curfew area, stop at a McDonalds and order 250 big macs, 125 fries and 125 drinks to go.  He would say, “my battalion commander will be by shortly to pay for them”.  It worked.  My Division Finance Officer showed up on day two with $500,000 in cash and paid the bills.  I never asked how she got the money. 

LA Police Department:  Daryl Gates was more of an LA celebrity than an adequate Chief of Police.  If he and his ego were occupying a room there was hardly any space for another person.  LA police had long ago lost contact with the general populous and merchants.  They occupied cars and their standard operating procedure when called to the scene of an accident or crime scene was to first drive by and determine if it was safe to stop.  I vividly recall one night about 0200 seeing a parking lot full of police cars.  This was when the 100% curfew was still in effect.  I told my driver to pull in and see what was going on.  I found my soldiers on the roof and at the front door guarding the police precinct building with the police officers hunkered down inside. 

My first encounter with Gates was about 10 p.m. the first night when I went to visit him and LA County Sherriff Sherman Block at their joint emergency center.  Gates and Block were seated at a conference table and my Command Sergeant Major (affectionately known throughout most of the Army as “Mad Dog”) and I were asked to take a seat across the table from them.  Gates’ opening comment was, “General, we don’t need you and we don’t want you.”  What came out of my mouth is not fit for mixed company but it was short and to the point.  The greater LA community knew that Gates was a bigger part of the problem than the solution.  

The gangs, Bloods and Crips, were a potential serious problem. They completely ignored the curfew and the LA police never lifted a finger to enforce it.  The problem was that most gang cars had someone riding shotgun.  Literally.  Guns in plain sight.  The message they were sending was, “we own these streets at night, just watch me.”  I told the senior National Guard officer I needed an immediate seminar with a room full of gang guys, the more senior the better.  He made it happen.  My message to them was, in a few days or weeks we will be gone and you will again own the streets.  In the meantime it is not in your best interest to pick a fight with the US Army. You will lose.  Discretion is the better part of valor.  It was a calculated guess but it worked. They took the message to whomever and like magic, the streets cleared.

As pointed out, the media was everywhere all the time. I could use them to my advantage when necessary but I did not want my upward chain of command to get their information from CNN or the LA Times.  So, every night, while cruising the city, I would stop at midnight and write a couple-page SitRep, situation report.  I would try to capture the last 24 hours in words, the status as of that moment and the plan for the next 24 hours.  By the time the sun came up on the East Coast, every commander had access to the SitRep.  When I later briefed President Bush, he told me the SitRep was the first thing he read every morning during the crisis. 

I am proud to have been a senior commander in your Army but never so much so as I was when the events of the LA riots unfolded.  If I had been screwing things up, the story might have been different but here is what did NOT happen.  This was an international story.  The nation was riveted on LA at the time.  The media was committed 24/7 to what unfolded.  My immediate boss was a 3-star Corps Commander.  I never heard from him; perfect.  My second boss was a 4-star US Forces Commander (commander of all Army forces inside the US).  He never called or sent anyone to see me; perfect.  The Chief of Staff of the Army is by law the Executive Agent for the US Government on civil unrest. Therefore, he was almost compelled to weigh in somehow.  He called once and I will never forget every word of that phone call, “Marv, it’s Gordon, if you need anything, call me.”  Click.  General Colin Powell, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff was at one time our next-door neighbor.  I knew him very well.  He never called.  Why not? 

The big difference between deliberate planning and execution and crisis planning and execution is, in a word, time.  Time is the enemy during a crisis because there is never enough of it.  The farthest we could see ahead was 24 hours.  We were planning and executing in 6-hour cycles.  Often times it was only minutes between decision and execution.  Our objective was to maintain near total situational awareness in the 100 square mile area of operations.  My senior chain of command understood all that.  They knew there was no time for a “mother-may-I?” communication.  They also knew the absolute last thing we needed was a team of outsiders to come to LA to “help” us.  They were a team of the strongest leaders I have ever known and they did exactly the right thing; “if you need anything, call me.” Perfect.

The people of Los Angeles literally and figuratively embraced your soldiers.  What they saw in each and every one of them was focus, compassion, steadfastness, commitment to their mission.  I was taking a briefing from a battalion commander in one of the city parks when a woman drove up.  She said she had heard the soldiers weren’t getting enough to eat.  She had a car full of groceries.  We were there over Mothers’ Day.  A few days before a truck from a large drug store chain pulled up to our headquarters with 10,000 Mothers’ Day cards for distribution to the troops.  An elderly couple coming out of a grocery store stopped me and expressed their gratitude for the safety we had brought to the city.  They said they normally had to take a taxi both ways from their house to buy groceries because it is unsafe to be on the streets.  I inquired how far away they lived.  “Three blocks.”  The hundreds of strip malls were easy targets for looters and arsonists.  We provided security for them all.  The store owners who sold any type of consumable (candy, ice cream, soft drinks, etc.) would routinely leave the front door unlocked and tell the soldiers to go in and help themselves throughout the night.  There were thousands of those stories.  You should be understandably proud of your soldiers.

The only visitor in my chain of command showed up about two weeks later to thank the troops; President Bush. By arrangement “Mad Dog” and I were waiting on a side street within a block of where the troops, police etc. were assembled to hear the President. He pulled up in his limo and got out, my Command Sergeant Major and I saluted, he returned the salute and I moved forward to introduce myself.  Just as I began, the President interrupted saying, “General, I already know all there is to know about you” and smiled.  He was thrilled that Mad Dog was with me and they chatted for a while. I had a 3-ring binder with a few briefing charts in it and delivered the brief on the hood of his vehicle.  I told him that’s the way we do in-the-field briefings in the Army.  I think he liked it. He asked if we were finished in LA and I told him we had accomplished all we came to do but we would leave behind a very troubled city with deep-seated problems that have existed for a very long time.  He completely understood.  The next day we began redeployment and mustered the California National Guard out of the regular Army.  I was back to commanding only one Division and glad of it.

From the arrival of the first 7^th Infantry Division soldiers until our redeployment, no one died from riot-relations actions.

Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO EXECUTION, a book for leaders, a columnist for THE PILOT, a national award-winning local newspaper in Southern Pines, NC and the author of a blog, WeThePeopleSpeaking.com