WHAT BIDENOMICS IS REALLY DOING TO US

For the past almost three years President Biden has been more vocal about employment than any other subject. This is a two-part essay. First, is he telling us the truth about job numbers and secondly some thoughts on why employment participation is what it is.   

JOBS, FACTS 

During January and February of 2020, the Trump economy continued to grow and 604,000 jobs were created (operative word).  After reaching a peak in February 2020, employment fell by a combined 22.4 million in March and April, a Covid-related decline of 15 %. For example, there are more than one million restaurants in the U.S. and most of them closed temporarily. A month later jobs recovery began but it was a slow process and there was still a huge hole to fill when Biden took office 10 months later. That’s when Biden began his almost monthly public statements on jobs creation.”

The president’s boasting about jobs created began in the Spring of 2021, ‘We’ve created more than 1.5 million jobs, the most in the first 100 days of any president on record.”

This went on through 2021 and 2022, “We created more new jobs in two years than any president did in their entire term.”

He persisted into 2023, “As we head into Labor Day, we ought to take a step back and take note of the fact that America is now in one of the strongest job-creating periods in our history; in the history of our country.”

And it wasn’t that long ago that America was losing jobs.  In fact, my predecessor was the one of only two presidents in history who entered his presidency and left with fewer jobs than when he entered.”  Not a lie but very misleading in that he just failed to mention that in February and March of 2020 the pandemic took away 22 million jobs from President Trump.  

It’s more than disappointing to think our president can get behind his teleprompter every month and assume we are all too stupid to know he is lying to us. And then finish off by crediting all of this economic success to Bidenomics, as he leans down close to the microphone and whispers, “Bidenomics, it’s working” as if he was telling a secret to a bunch on second graders.

But Biden can’t help but double down on what he is selling as Bidenomics. He continued later on in September saying, “Look, look at where we are now.  Just this morning, we learned that the economy created 190,000 jobs last month.  All told, we’ve added 13.5 million jobs since I took office, around 800,000 of them manufacturing jobs.  We created more jobs in two years than any president ever created in a single four-year term.  We did it in two years.”

Perhaps we better fact check that assertion that he has created more jobs than any other president.  Sure, in terms of raw numbers, he did add more jobs because the population in 1970 was about 203 million compared to 331 million in 2020.  By doing the comparative math correctly measured by percentage increase from the start of their terms, Biden ranks in the middle of the pack. His growth numbers were in fact exceeded by Presidents Johnson, Nixon, Carter, Reagan and Clinton. Another lie.  It gets to the point that we have to ask ourselves; can we believe anything he is reading to us from the teleprompter?

BOTTOM LINE ON THE “CREATED” ISSUE: Nearly 72% of all the job gains since 2021 were simply jobs that were being recovered from the 22 million pandemic layoffs. In fact, when looking at today’s economy compared to pre-pandemic levels, employment is up only by 3.7 million. On the other hand, prior to the pandemic, actual job creation under President Trump was 6.7 million jobs.  Bidenomics has never yet reached the trend line established from 2017 through January 2021.

And all the while he is bragging about his economy, he is under water on every poll that deals with the economy.

LABOR PARTICIPATION RATE, the second part of this essay; what is it and how did we get to where we are today?

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the labor force participation rate is an estimate of an economy’s active workforce. The formula is the number of people ages 16 and older who are employed or actively seeking employment, divided by the total civilian working-age population.

In the 12 months ending Aug. 2023, the U.S. labor force participation rate ranged between a low of 62.2% and a high of 62.8%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which publishes the figures monthly. As of Aug. 2023, it was 62.8%.

Background; when Obama/Biden took over in January 2009 the labor participation rate was 65.7%. That was the beginning of an 8-year steady decline until they departed the White House January 2017 with a participation rate of 62.8%’ about a 3% decline. Is 3% a big deal?  Yes, it’s significant because in 2017 there were 165.2 million workers involved. Each percentage point represents 1,652,000 workers time 3 equals an Obam/Biden loss of about 5 million workers. That was an element of Obama’s declared formula to “fundamentally transform America.”

We need some more background information to clarify and understand the Obama/Biden 8-year labor participation rate disaster.

In 1996 President Bill Clinton signed the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act. The legislation substantially reconstructed the nation’s welfare system by giving state governments more autonomy over welfare services while also reducing the federal government’s role.

The Welfare-to-Work Act, as it became known, provided for the following:

  • The act ended welfare as an entitlement program.
  • Required recipients to begin working after two years of receiving benefits.
  • Placed a lifetime limit of five years on benefits paid by federal funds.
  • Sought to encourage two-parent families and to discourage out-of-wedlock births.
  • Enhanced enforcement of child support.
  • And required state professional and occupational licenses to be withheld from undocumented immigrants.

This Act, with these requirements, ended six decades of federal government control of the programs. In the process of dismantling the old model, President Clinton created something, different and critical to success; the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program, or TANF, which changed the financing and benefit structure of cash assistance. Instead of welfare being funded in a more open-ended manner, now welfare was funded by federal block grants to states, along with a requirement that states had to match some of the federal dollars.

This Act created a foundational principle of “personal responsibility”; it changed the culture of U.S. welfare.

TANF:

  • Added work requirements for aid, shrinking the number of adults who could qualify for benefits.
  • It created caps for how long and how much aid a person could receive.
  • It instituted harsher punishments for recipients who did not comply with the requirements.

Following on, President Bush called on the Senate to take action to continue the historic progress of welfare reform and ensure that more Americans are able to achieve independence through work.

Did TANF work?  In its annual report to Congress on the level of welfare dependency in the country, HHS found that 4.7 million fewer Americans were dependent on welfare three years after welfare reform was first passed in 1996. The percentage of the population dependent on welfare fell from 5.2% to 3.3% during that time.

As the rate of welfare dependency declined, the overall poverty rate in America fell. In the four years following enactment of welfare reform, 5.4 million fewer Americans were in poverty. Within these four years, the poverty rate for all individuals fell from 13.7% to 11.3%, the lowest rate since 1979.

2009: Enter Obama/Biden with their American transformation scheme.

“WITHOUT AUTHORITY, OBAMA MOVES WORKERS BACK TO WELFARE” were the headlines.

In a classic case of Executive Branch abuse of regularity power, Obama/Biden cut the legs off from the TANF program by informing the states that they could apply to the Secretary of HHS for a waiver of the work requirements contained in the law.  That Obama/Biden move could have and should have been challenged by Congress and/or the Supreme Court because the work requirement was an essential element of the law and one that the stature specifically said cannot be waived. But it was not challenged.

The Obama/Biden initiative killed a 13-year-old successful program with the following negative ramifications: 

  • The U.S. labor force participation rate went down about 3% which meant that about 5 million able-bodied welfare recipients did not transition from welfare to work.
  • The federal government essentially regained control of the welfare program and reverted back to the bad old days.
  •  Obama/Biden significantly added to the size of the identity group voting block that is government-dependent and for the most part votes for the democrats.
  • The Congressional Research Service reported that the number of able-bodied adults on food stamps doubled after Obama suspended work requirements.
  • By 2016, a record 47 million Americans receive food stamps, about 13 million more than when they took office.
  • Increased welfare does not solve the poverty issue.  The Census Bureau put the number of Americans in poverty at 45.3 million as of 2013. That’s not quite 5.5 million more people in poverty than there were in 2008, just before Obama took office.
  • When the labor force participation falls, tax revenue falls and government revenue is reduced as welfare costs go up. 
  • Government spending on welfare increased 32% during the Obama/Biden first term.

WHAT DID BIDEN LEARN DURING HIS 8-YEAR TUTELAGE UNDER OBAMA?

Biden’s first budget submission in 2021 expanded welfare without work incentives setting the stage to trap a new generation of Americans in poverty and dependence. In fiscal year 2022, the federal government spen$1.19 trillion on more than 80 different welfare programs. That represents almost 20% of total federal spending and a quarter of tax revenues in 2022 or $9,000 spent per American household, all adding to the already unsustainable debt trajectory. The Congressional Budget Office has projected $12.7 trillion in spending on these programs over the FY 2024-2033 budget window.

What did Biden learn from Obama? He learned how to advance the movement towards a welfare state.

What are Obama’s building blocks to “systematically transform America? They came from Saul Alinsky, 1909-1972, a Chicago-based organizer, community activist and political theorist. Considered the father of community organizers, he became Hilary Clinton’s hero and Obama’s philosophical mentor (Obama quotes him often in his book and Hillary did her senior year thesis on Alinsky).

It is enlightening to align Alinsky’s eight steps from democracy to a socialist society with what is happening in America today with Democrat leadership.

1.  Healthcare: “Control Healthcare and you control the People.” Democrats campaigned in 2020 for “Medicare for all.”   

2.  Poverty: “Increase the Poverty level as high as possible, Poor People are easier to control and will not fight back if the government is providing everything for them to live.”

Here are some 2022 quick facts about poverty provided by Poverty USA. The poverty threshold for an individual is a household income of approximately $13,000 per year, and it’s roughly $26000 per year for a family of four. 37 million Americans are living in poverty, which makes the poverty rate 11.4%. There are over 11 million children in poverty.

3.  Debt: “Increase the National Debt to an unsustainable level.” Obama/Biden created more debt in 8 years than all previous administrations combined.

4.  Gun Control: “Remove the ability to defend themselves from the Government.  That way you are able to create a Police State with total local control.”  Gun control is habitual Democrat priority campaign subject. 

5.  Welfare: “Take control of every aspect of their lives, food, livestock, housing, and income.” Government spending on welfare increased 32% during the Obama/Biden first term.

6.  Education: “Take control of what People read & listen to; take control of what Children learn in School.” That is well underway across the nation in grades K-12 and in colleges and universities.

7.  Religion: “Remove faith in God from the government and schools.” Almost there.

8.  Class Warfare: “Divide the people into the wealthy against the poor. This will cause more discontent and it will be easier to tax the wealthy with full support of
the voting poor
.” This is Biden’s “Tax the rich” on-going plan.

If you believe the Alinsky eight steps to socialism has some validity, and if you also believe the lid is already on the coffin, all that remains is to nail it down.  Is that where we are with the Obama/Biden transformation of America?

CONCLUSIONS:

Americans are the most benevolent people on earth.  We will always take care of those who cannot take care of themselves.  But 80 government welfare programs run by an enormous out of control burearcracy can actually cause more harm than good. 

The problem is with the work ethic of the millions who can, but choose not to, care for themselves because they have a choice and choose welfare over work.

BOTTOM LINE:

CBS reporting: “Today, 7.2 million men between 25 and 54 years old are not working or even looking for work and have essentially dropped out of the workforce resulting in a major hole in the American economy.  

How are they spending their time? On average, nearly seven hours each weekday is dedicated to leisure time; relaxing, playing games and watching TV, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.”

Meanwhile, more than 770,000 manufacturing jobs are open according to the latest federal count, from November 2023, even though manufacturing workers are, on average, earning more than $30 an hour.

Plan to go vote before the coffin gets nailed shut, forever.

Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of two books, Vision to Execution and Fix the Systems, Transform America as well as the author of a blog, WeThePeopleSpeaking.com

“IT’S THE ECONOMY STUPID”

It’s the economy stupid“, that famous phrase from the Clinton presidential campaign seems to rear its head with some application every four years. As I see it, in the 2024 campaign it could be used by Biden speaking down to his subjects and then going on to tell us all how great Bidenomics is and how it is, “building an economy from the middle out and the bottom up.” To me, using that interpretation, Biden will be telling We-The-People in the Middle Class and below economic strata that, “Bidenomics is working” and you all are better off than you were four years ago. More on that at the end.

POLLING DATA:

Any person, particularly those subject to the polling questions, will normally have a lot of negative things to say about polling results that are contrary to what that person believes.  Those less skeptical and with an open mind will generally look at polling results and conclude that, while it could be a little off, generally it tells a believable story. That is, if you look at enough polling data over a protracted period and there tends to be a consistent theme, then we can conclude that the story might be about right.

  • August 17, 2023, The Associated Press published a poll telling us that while President Joe Biden has devoted the past several weeks to promoting the positive impacts of his policies, his efforts have yet to meaningfully register with the public. Only 36% of U.S. adults approve of Biden’s handling of the economy and he is at his lowest overall approval rating of 40%.
  • Over 60% of voters disapprove of President Biden’s foreign policy actions, according to a new poll from NBC News.
  • Even though Biden has been on a 3-year effort to buy votes by paying off college tuition debt, 70% of voters ages 18 to 34 disapprove of how Biden is handling the Israeli war.
  • Biden’s approval among small business owners stood at only 30 percent in a November 2023 CNBC survey with feedback from more than 2,000 small business owners.
  • Americans have lost confidence that their children will be better off than they are, according to a new poll. Nearly 80% of respondents said they “do not feel confident” in their children’s future. 
  • September 15, 2023 Recent polling data suggested 63% of Americans are negative on the US economy, while 45% said their financial situation had deteriorated in the last two years.

Conclusions:  There is a trend there and the American people are not buying what the White House is selling.

BIDENOMICS AND INFLATION:

In any discussion of inflation, keep in mind that the wealthy among us are not overly concerned if the cost of a dozen eggs or a loaf of bread doubles.  The concern is for the masses who are hit the hardest; those in the lower income brackets because “poverty is a measure of how many families are unable to afford basic necessities for life.”

The One-hundred-year Inflation Rates table,1914-2023, published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, paints the inflation picture:  

  • January 2021, Biden was sworn in with an inflation rate or 1.4 %; the lowest since 1998.
  • In his first 60 days in office the inflation rate nearly doubled to 2.6%.   
  • In 90 days, it had tripled to 4.2%. By June 2021 it had nearly quadrupled to 5.4%. At that point, July 2021, Biden delivered a national address on inflation saying, “inflation is temporary and expected after the COVID-19 pandemic” (blame, blame, blame). Biden argued that about 60 percent of price increases were caused by “transitory effects” linked to COVID-19, such as shortages of lumber and semiconductors, and aren’t a sign of substantial long-term inflation linked to deficit spending.
  • 2021 inflation was not temporary, it kept going up and by the end of his first year, January 2022, the inflation rate was 7.5%; from 1.4% to 7.5%, an increase of 436%.
  • It continued to rise in 2022 finally peaking in June at 9.1%; the highest inflation rate since February, 1981.

INFLATION DEFINED: 

Econ 101, a simple, easy to understand definition; “Inflation occurs when too much money is chasing too few goods”. Let’s explore both elements of the equation in time and place. 

Three critical dates for Covid relief legislation:

  • March, 2020:  The pandemic was in high gear.  The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, also known as the CARES Act, was a $2.2 trillion economic stimulus bill signed into law by President Trump on March 27, 2020, in response to the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.  CARES Act, the largest fiscal stimulus in modern history, focused on these primary policy goals: increasing consumer spending through direct cash payments to households; providing liquidity to small-and medium-sized firms, keeping workers on payroll through the Paycheck Protection Program and providing an extended safety net to millions of Americans by temporarily expanding the unemployment insurance system. This program provided critical resources to individuals and businesses during the most critical period of the pandemic. 
  • December, 2020: The COVID-related Tax Relief Act of 2020, enacted in late December 2020, authorized additional payments of up to $600 per adult for eligible individuals and up to $600 for each qualifying child under age 17. 

The relief packages in March and December, 2020 were successful, bringing covid relief to millions, on target and on time.  The result was that about the time Biden was sworn in, the economy was on the rise; businesses were reopening, those laid off were reentering the labor force, Covid cases were decreasing and things were looking up. 

And then, not to be upstaged by Trump in give-away programs, Biden’s Democrats quickly produced the American Rescue Plan even though the country had already been “rescued” by the 2020 relief legislation.

  • March, 2021: The $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan bill included $1,400 payments to about 85% of Americans, $360 billion for state and local governments, $242 billion in expanded unemployment benefits, among other things.

Simultaneously in 2020 and 2021 there was a supply crisis; everything from lumber to refrigerators to microchips. Tens of billions of dollars’ worth of goods were backed up off the U.S. coasts in scores of cargo ships.

And there you have it, the perfect inflation storm; too much money in the hands of consumers chasing too few goods.  “Biden’s The American Rescue Plan was far larger than the economy could support,” said Marc Goldwein with the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

By the time Biden’s inflation generating rescue plan went into effect, the country was already reeling from a previous Biden inflation-generating decision as follows: 

BIDEN AND FOSSIL FUEL:

January 2021, without warning, without consultation with Congress, without a White House team in place, without discussion, without We-The-People having a clue, Biden signed an Executive Order that placed

an indefinite “pause on new oil and natural gas leases on public lands” until a comprehensive review on the climate change impacts can be completed. During 2020 crude oil production on public lands was about 2.9 million barrels per day or about 25% of total barrels per day.

Then in November, 2021, Biden’s Build Back Better Bill contained a long list of increases in federal royalties and fees, plus new fees, new taxes, and barriers to leasing in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, the Pacific, Atlantic, and eastern Gulf of Mexico which added millions of dollars in operating costs, pricing out U.S. production.

Here is what Biden’s actions did to diesel fuel prices:

  • January 2021: $2.68 per gallon, national average. About $800 to fill the tank of a long-haul 18-wheeler tractor trailer which gets about ten miles per gallon.
  • March 2021: $3.15 per gallon
  • November 2021: $3.75
  • March 2022: $5.11
  • June 2022: $5.75; a 215% increase since Biden took office 17 months earlier. About $1700 to fill the long-haul fuel tank.
  • September 2023: $4.37

Because of Biden-induced inevitable rising fuel prices negatively impacting everyone in America, Biden needed to take action to slow down the rate of rising fuel prices before the 2022 elections. First, he pleaded with Saudi Arabia, Iran, Venezuela and other oil-producing nations, some unfriendly to the United States, to increase their supply of oil.  They blew him off.

This then prompted Biden to remove about 200 million barrels, more than 40% of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, leaving the stockpile at its lowest levels since 1984, and thereby putting the nation’s energy security at considerable risk. Considering that the U.S. daily consumption of oil is about 19 million barrels; that’s about 2 1/2 week’s supply from the Strategic reserve.  Given the mess the world is in today and the U.S. vulnerability to terrorists’ attacks on U.S. soil right now, Biden has set the stage for a potential national security calamity.  

These actions against the oil industry to appease the far-left wing of the Democrat Party caused an historic shift from net energy exporter in 2020, to net importer in 2021. The U.S. finally, after a 50-year effort, achieved energy independence in 2020 only to be squandered by Biden’s actions.  America’s total bill for its imported crude oil purchases accelerated by 47.8% from 2021 to 2022. In 2022 the U.S. net imports of crude oil was about 2.7 million barrels per day.  Oil imports from Venezuela, previously halted in 2019, were resumed under Biden’s sanctions relief in January 2023 and increased to 153,000 barrels per day in July 2023.

YOU NEED A NEW HAND SAW; a flat piece of metal about 2-3 inches wide at the front, tapering back to about 4 inches wide at the handle, a single set of teeth the entire length of about 2 feet. 

Facts bearing on the new saw issue:

  • There is a lot of very heavy machinery involved in mining iron ore using huge amounts of diesel fuel.
  • Ore is transported to a processing plant by diesel-guzzling trucks and trains.
  • The ore is transposed into sheet metal and moved by truck to a warehouse.
  • A tool-manufacturing company orders the sheet metal; back on a truck to a tool manufacturing facility.
  • The new saw is sent by truck or train to their product distribution warehouses. 
  • Lowes Hardware orders 500 saws that will be transported by truck to the Lowes regional warehouses.
  • The local Lowes Hardware orders 5 saws transported by truck from the warehouse to the store.
  • You get in your car, go to Lowes and purchase your new saw, thinking WOW, this seems expensive.

Moral of the story; every object you purchase has, at some time, been on a train or in multiple trucks. You, the consumer pays all of those transportation costs and when the price of diesel fuel increases from $2.68 to $5.75, you pay an inflation-related price.  And, by the way, the wooden handle on your new saw that you purchased in Miami Florida was, a couple months ago, part of a tree in Montana. 

This is Bidenomics inflation, he made it, he has sustained it, he has negatively impacted the lives of every American and he must be held accountable by We-The-People.  

INFLATION, WHAT IT DOES:

Too many Americans are being forced to choose between paying for groceries and heating their house.

A December 2022 study from The Heritage Foundation determined that Americans had lost around $7,100 in spending power since Biden’s inauguration in January 2021.

November, 2023, according to a Lending Club report, 60% of adults said they are living paycheck to paycheck.

A Federal Reserve report last week shows that credit card debt climbed to a record high in the third quarter of 2023, surging nearly 5% from the previous quarter and leaving a growing share of borrowers late on payments.   

The federal government reported November, 2022 that personal savings under Biden have fallen off a cliff. The personal saving rate, meaning personal saving as a percentage of disposable income, fell to 3.3%. Adjusted for inflation, savings are down 88% from their 2020 peak and 61% lower than before the pandemic.

HOW TO STOP RISING INFLATION RATES:

The good news is rising inflation can be slowed.  The bad news is that the method involves rising interest rates.

The average 30-year fixed rate reached an all-time record low of 2.65% in January 2021 when Biden took office before surging to 7.79% in October 2023, according to Freddie Mac.

Hundreds of thousands of small-to-large businesses have had to delay their growth plans because of the cost of borrowing money.

Interest costs on the national debt soared to $659 billion in fiscal year 2023. That’s up $184 billion, or 39%, from FY 2022 and is nearly double what it was in fiscal year 2020. Taxpayers spend nearly $2 billion every day just on interest on the national debt. According to the Congressional Budget Office’s long-term projections, interest on the debt is expected to hit $1.4 trillion by fiscal year 2033.

BIDENOMICS IN EVERY HOUSEHOLD:

  • Prices for electricity are 24.73% higher in 2023 than in 2020. 
  • Prices for food are 22.1% higher in 2023 than in 2020.
  • Heating oil, April 2020, $.86; October 2022, $5.72.  A 565% increase.
  • Poverty: September 2023, the Census Bureau announced that the U.S. poverty rate rose to 12.4 % in 2022 from 7.8 % in 2021, the largest one-year jump on record. Poverty among children more than doubled, to 12.4%. As illustrated above, family necessities such as food, electricity and energy will hit low-income families the hardest.

INFLATION REDUCTION ACT:

Help is on the way??? Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 into law on Aug. 16th.

According to the Penn Wharton Budget Model, there’s low confidence the legislation will have any impact on inflation.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the bill will barely make a dent on inflation in the near term and could even nudge it upward.

Biden told us, “After all, this bill cuts costs for families to help reduce inflation at the kitchen table.”

Who do you believe?

ANOTHER BIDENOMICS STAB IN THE HEART OF TAXPAYERS:

Biden has proposed that the corporate tax rate should increase from 21% to 28%, plus a15% minimum tax would apply to corporate book income.  Additionally American corporations’ foreign income generally would be subject to a tax of 21%.

When will he get it through his head that corporations DO NOT PAY TAXES.  Oh yes, they eventually write the check but where did they get the money?  When any company makes a product there are costs; raw materials, transportation, plant operations, wages/salaries, advertising and tax.  AND YOU AND I PAY FOR ALL OF IT WHEN WE BUY THE PRODUCT!!  Corporate tax is just another cost of producing the product.  The company’s profit is added on and that becomes the sales price. By taxing the corporation and thereby raising the price, the U.S. becomes less competitive in the global market.  

While 60% of American households are already living from paycheck to paycheck, they can look forward to paying “their fair share” of corporate tax increases which will be added to everything they purchase.

BIDENOMICS SUMMAY TO DATE:

  • Real disposable income, DOWN 7.5%           
  • Home ownership affordability, DOWN 37.3%
  • Credit card debt, UP 36;2%
  • Monthly savings, DOWN 81.4%

BOTTOM LINE: 

In the first paragraph I theorized that there are perhaps two applications of the Clinton quote from 1992, “It’s the economy stupid.” The first application is that, in the 2024 campaign, it could be used by Biden speaking down to his subjects and then going on to tell us all how great Bidenomics is and how it is, “building an economy from the middle out and the bottom up.” To me, by using that interpretation, Biden will be telling all those in the Middle Class and below economic strata that, “Bidenomics is working” and you all are better off than you were four years ago.

A second application, and one that seems more fitting today is for those in the Middle Class and below economic strata to speak in the voting booth, saying to their president, “It’s the economy stupid.”

FINALLY, IT’S TIME FOR THE “TO” AND “FOR” QUESTIONS:

What has Biden done “to” We-The-People in his first three years in office?  See the answer in all of the above.

What has Biden done “for” We-The-People in his first three years in office?  Please put together your own list; that one is in my too-hard box.

Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of two books, Vision to Execution and Fix the Systems, Transform America as well as the author of a blog, WeThePeopleSpeaking.com

TRANSFORM THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AND CUT SPENDING

On 1 November, I published an article entitled CUT SPENDING BY TRANSFORMING CONGRESS INTO A MORE EFFECTIVE AND EFFICIENT ORGANIZATION.  In that article I explained there were two ways for the Federal Government to cut spending. The 1 November article centered on how to fix Congress and this one explains how to fix the Executive Branch. 

The intent of these two articles is to answer President Biden’s question, “What do the Republicans stand for?”  At the time he said it, after the lackluster 2022 midterm election results, it was his way of declaring that the Republican Party does not stand for anything.  In light of the 2022 midterm election results, perhaps he is correct or at least too many voters do not believe or see or hear enough about the Republican Party’s underpinnings. Republicans need to find a way to make it crystal-clear to the American public that strong defense, a growing economy, less taxation, states’ rights, law and order, secure borders, energy independence and deregulation, to name a few, are what the Party “stands for.”  Also, there was a time when fiscal constraint and fiscal responsibility were regularly included in that list.  

All the time we hear Republicans in Washington saying, “We have to cut spending.” “We have to get control of the $33 trillion national debt.” But, when was the last time you heard one of them say, “There are two ways we can cut hundreds of billions of dollars out of the annual budget, get control of excessive spending, and move the country towards a balanced budget.” The point being, there are actual solutions to the problems that are tearing this nation apart and we need our Republican spokespersons to begin leading.

First of all, as a new leader in the House of Representatives, Speaker Johnson is perfectly positioned to publish an agenda that articulates actual solutions the Republican Party believes in and plans to initiate.  Secondly, the Republicans have a very strong bench of presidential candidates all out there talking about what needs to be fixed but have you heard one of them say, “Let me explain to you (the voters) exactly how we will cut spending and balance the budget.”  I am not suggesting that these two solutions to fix Congress (1 November article) this one, fix the Executive Branch, are the only ways to cut spending, but it is a start that voters can understand and believe in. 

GROUND TRUTH:

A mammoth, sprawling, uncontrollable, federal government currently numbering about 4.3 million plus hundreds of thousands of contract employees was never the vision or intent of the Founding Fathers.  Organizations have a propensity to grow to a point of diminishing returns; cease to be efficient, effective, and/or no longer perform the functions for which they were created.  At that point, a large organization will tend to look inward and become self-perpetuating rather than value-added for the greater good.

Some or all of that could apply today to the Departments in the Executive Branch of the federal government. This results in two major problems that desperately need to get fixed. 

First, a too-large organization is very expensive to maintain.  A more effective and efficient Executive Branch will be much smaller and less expensive. Every 1% reduction in end-strength equals about a $1.5 billion saving in annual salaries plus billions of dollars more in long-term retirement pay and benefits.

Second, and more importantly, the annual U.S. budget boils up out of this massive organization. Every government-funded program is maintained and sustained inside these bureaucracies.  These programs are this organization’s product.  General Motor’s product is vehicles; the Executive Branch’s product is taxpayer-supported programs.  The question is, what is the value added of those programs?  An in-depth review will undoubtedly find programs that have existed for decades, their original purpose no longer relevant, programs that sounded good at their inception but have failed in execution, programs to solve a problem that should have been the purview of state or local officials, programs initiated to solve a short-term problem but live on forever.  The list is long.  President Reagan summed up the problem with this statement, “Government is like a baby, an alimentary canal with a big appetite at one end and no sense of responsibility at the other.”

Before we launch into how to fix spending and the bureaucracy, a word about the national debt.  The out-of-control spending and debt increase is a relatively new problem. The Obama/Biden administration swamped us with more debt than all of the 43 previous presidents combined.  And now increasing debt annually has become the norm.  The Congressional Budget Office has been telling us for several years that annual debt increases are not sustainable”, aka, there will be a day of reckoning and it will be ugly.  

It is difficult to get our minds around a debt figure of $33 trillion and growing at a rate of about $6 billion a day; a billion dollars about every four hours.  If you had stood on a street corner in 1991 handing out dollar bills, one dollar per second, you would just about now finish giving away the first 1 billion dollars. You would be on that street corner for 32,000 years to hand out the first $1 trillion. If you were paying off the current debt at one dollar per second, it would take you over 1 million years.  Unsustainable. We have to do something about spending and we have to change the way we think about debt before that day of reckoning becomes a reality.  

As Joe Biden was sworn in as president on 20 January 2021 the U.S. national debt was $27.6 trillion. Twenty months and two weeks later it passed $31 trillion; 19 September, 2023 it passed $33 trillion. It will pass $34 trillion before the 2024 election.

A WAY AHEAD IN 2024:

Congressional Authority over the Executive Branch:

  • Congressional oversight refers to the power of the U.S. Congress to monitor and change, if necessary, the actions of the executive branch, including the many federal agencies.
  • The main goals of congressional oversight are preventing waste, fraud, and abuse and protecting rights and civil liberties.
  • Congressional oversight is one of the “implied” powers granted to Congress by the “necessary and proper” clause of the Constitution.
  • In empowering the legislative branch of government to oversee the executive branch, congressional oversight forms a key element of the system of checks and balances of power among the three branches of government.
  • Congress can also limit an agency’s power by reducing its funding in the annual federal budget process.

Transforming the Executive Branch should be a 6-phase program enacted and enforced by the House of Representatives  between now and into the next administration in February, 2025.

PHASE 1: Given the above listed authority, the House should immediately, as part of Speaker Johnson’s agenda, propose specific legislation for the next president to initiate an Executive Branch-wide effort to reduce the size, budget, and influence of the sprawling Executive Branch. In all probability the big-government proponents in the Congress as well as the Biden administration will oppose such legislation. But the Republican Party could, in early January 2024, be on record with a specific plan to reduce the size and reach of the federal bureaucracy which will reduce spending and make voters believe the Republican Party is, in fact, fiscally conservative.

The House Republicans can use this legislative agenda, and the fact that the Democrats have rejected it, to present and execute the remaining phases.   

PHASE 2:  This 118th Congress should pass an array of reform legislation to cut spending that includes, but not be limited to, the way Congress operates and the plan to streamline the Executive Branch.

PHASE 3: The 2024 Presidential Campaign.  During the primary-election season, all Republican candidates should campaign on specific proposals that will alleviate the spending and debt crises and, if elected, will make it a priority to execute detailed reform processes.

PHASE 4: During the 2024 general-election campaign, the Republican presidential candidate will make it clear that the priority for his/her vice president will be to lead Spending and Debt Reform execution.

PHASE 5, post-election:  Nomination of Executive Branch Leaders, November 2024 through January 2025. The president/vice president-elect should concentrate their selection process on principals and their deputies who understand organizations, who have successfully led large complex organizations, and who will lead the effort to re-think their mission and to restructure their organization to most effectively and efficiently achieve their mission while cutting spending.

PHASE 6: Spending and Debt Reform Execution, January 2025-June 2025.  This will be a difficult process because we are talking about change, massive change, within each Executive Branch organization. We must recognize that for any large organization, especially one as large as the Executive Branch, change is very difficult. Fear of the unknown is a powerful human force, especially in government with an entrenched, layered bureaucracy that is stiff, stifling, and, in many respects, self-serving.

The newly elected Vice President will provide hands-on leadership from start to finish with periodic in-progress reviews provided to the American people.

How does all this get accomplished? It is a long and tedious process; even explaining it is a long tedious read but there are no viable shortcuts to re-thinking, re-designing, and re-structuring large organizations and making them be all they can and should be. 

  • First, during the last week in January 2025, the vice president should set up a senior Spending and Debt Reform Task Force consisting of the deputies of all the departments, agencies, and commissions. They will be the change-agents and become the junkyard dogs of Washington.
  • Second, early February, 2025, define the end state and end date for the campaign. For example, the VP might say, “Over the next six months, or as long as it takes, our task force will look inside every organizational element of the Executive Branch.  We will assess their mission (is it relevant today), their structure (too many or too few people), layering (is it OK or dysfunctional), can the organization integrate (communicate) vertically and horizontally efficiently and effectively on a day-to-day basis? Is the organization as a whole agile (able to deal with change as a matter of course) and is there overall value-added for the government and especially for the American people?”
  • Third, February through August 2025, execute: The process begins in every named organization by putting together a very detailed organization chart. That’s the visual for the task force and it provides an immediate sense of size, complexity, and layering.  Big government is layer after layer after layer, some of which produce nothing; they exist just to oversee what is being produced at the layers below.  Why the organization chart?  Because it allows the task force to begin the analysis and restructure at the bottom of the organization. One cannot reorganize and restructure top-down; to be successful it must be bottom-up. 

BOTTOM-UP FROM THE ORGANIZATION CHARTS:

Using the Department of Agriculture as an example, there are 65 different organizational elements that come under the headings of departments, agencies, councils, institutes, programs, foundations, services, authorities, offices of, boards and facilities.  Inside them are departments, directorates, branches, sections, cells, and individual elements.  Every one of those becomes a “box” in the organization chart.  Each organizational box must list the name of the element, number of employees, and the grade of the leader, GS 10, 12, whatever.

Within the Department of Agriculture, for example, the Deputy Secretary, part of the VP’s senior task force, will form his/her own internal departmental task force. The Department Task Force’s first action will be to send out an internal memo to the leaders of every “box” to submit, in one week, a no-more-than-two-page report to the Deputy Secretary.  The report format should include, as a minimum these six elements:

  • First, a one or two-sentence mission statement that describes what it is that element collectively does; for example, responsible for writing, executing, and enforcing Department Regulation 135, Beef Export Program, and reporting results quarterly to ………

During the following week, the Department Task Force will begin a detailed review of every input report. Their job is to ask, do we need Dept Reg 135 any longer?  If so, could this be done with fewer people?  Could the same number of employees also be responsible for Dept Reg 246, Pork Export Program? Do we need the report quarterly? And most importantly, what is the value-added of that organizational element to the overall Department’s mission?

Keep in mind that there are undoubtedly tens of thousands of worthless reports written every year by an entrenched bureaucratic mass that lives on forever sucking up tax dollars, stifling initiative, and being a roadblock to progress.

  • Second, the report should describe the grade structure of all the employees in the box.

The Department task Force will look at the grade structure for each of the boxes in the organization chart.  Is it commensurate with the degree of complexity of the mission? Could two or more similar “boxes” be combined, perhaps scaled-down and led by this same leader (a span of control issue)? Is the leader a “working leader” or just grading the papers of his/her subordinates and passing them up the chain?

  • Third, describe a typical work week; number of meetings, amount of travel, etc.  

This can reveal a lot about an organizational element and its leader.  Many meetings are just to fill up time, or are a daily social coffee clutch, or make the person in charge feel like he/she is actually “leading”.  Many are a colossal waste of time. If employees have time to attend too many meetings, they probably are not very busy to begin with. Is the travel critical to success, nice to have, or perhaps just to fill up the workweek? Travel is very expensive.

  • Fourth, what laws and/or regulations guide that organization’s work? 

This is a critical element in the review.  Has this organization been acting out a scenario that is unnecessary or at least should better reside at the state or local level?

  • Fifth, a list, in single sentences, of major accomplishments in the past twelve months

The task force will then determine if the accomplishments are in line with the mission or are just doing busy work?

  • Sixth and finally, a short statement of value-added. For example, without us the Department would not/could not do the following………

The Departments’ Task Force reviews of the input from the bottom-up is all about policy, practices, process, grade structure commensurate with overall responsibility, span of control, layering, and value-added determination.  When the Vice President routinely attends Departmental Task Force sessions, he/she will be grading their work and progress; are they tough enough, too tough, thorough enough, on the right track, or being overly protective of the status quo?  The VP will also be able to pick up strong points and pass them along to other Departments as best practices. 

The leaders of the Executive Departments along with their deputies will attend, in mass, a monthly in-progress-review with the president and vice president where they will lay out their findings to date.

Once the task force has worked its way up from the bottom, looking at every element, their individual mission, and value added, then and only then will they be capable of looking back and seeing how many subordinate elements are off track, irrelevant, unnecessary or even counterproductive.  They will then be capable of restructuring, re-aligning, re-tasking, reorganizing the subordinate elements to create an organization that is more focused, aligned, responsive, innovative, agile, and rid of pockets of resistance.

What must be emphasized here is the importance of the bottom-up review process.  As the task force works up from layer to layer on the organization chart, they will come to some conclusions about value added at each level. Having reached the top of the organization chart it is possible the Vice President’s senior task force could conclude that an entire department’s continued existence should be questioned.  A prime example is the Department of Education.   We know that education in America is a national disgrace and not getting better in spite of (or because of) the 4,400 employees and a 2023 budget of $68 billion; not to mention the hundreds of billions of tax dollars expended by the department since its inception 43 years ago.

This process may look tedious and time-consuming because it is.  But unless we begin at the bottom and unless we include every element, we will never achieve an acceptable level of success.

CONCLUSIONS:

The task forces must be especially mindful of the phrase, we provide oversight.”That is a red flashing light that an organization does not, in and of itself, produce anything of value. They simply exist to grade papers, expand their purview, inhibit progress and expend tax dollars.  As President Reagan reminded us, “The most terrifying words in the English language are, I’m from the government and I’m here to help.”

During the process, it is important to not lose sight of the two-fold objectives.  First, the objective is NOT to reach some specific lower end-strength number of federal employees.  The objective is to rid the government of boxes” in the organization charts that have no valueadded, they just exist because they have always been there.  The end state is an organization that is leaner, more focused, more efficient, more effective, and agile. The second objective is to end up with an organization that has a much smaller and more realistic annual budget.

Why do all of this work?  Two reasons:

One the most common attempts at downsizing, in my experience used numerous times over the past decades, have been to declare a hiring freeze or order an across-the-board, for example, ten percent personnel cut, neither of which make any sense nor achieve any lasting positive results. 

Second, what I have described above has never been done before.  We have just allowed the Executive Branch to grow without ever undertaking a necessary pruning process.

When completed, many positions, perhaps hundreds of thousands of them, will be eliminated. It will then take a couple years of shuffling the deck by the Office of Personnel Management to get folks reassigned or retired, but it is within the art of the possible and worth the effort. 

Let me remind you one more time, the president’s budget is the sum of what all of the departments, agencies, councils, institutes, programs, foundations, services, authorities, offices of, boards, and facilities believe they need to accomplish their mission.  When, perhaps tens of thousands of actions, programs, and policies are eliminated because they are outdated, unnecessary, and/or redundant, the budget requirement can in all probability be downsized by hundreds of billions of dollars.

There is also a states’ rights issues in all of this.  As the federal government grows, a natural outcome is that they over-reach into areas that are better and more effectively handled at the local and state levels.  Federal over-reach tends to result in a one-size-fits-all approach to problem-solving and creates a stifling regulation-nation.

BOTTOM LINE:

Getting spending and hence debt under control will resonate with the American people a lot more than the tax-and-spend economic baseline of the Democrat Party.  This is a necessary, positive endeavor the Republican Party needs to embrace now with legislation that will call for this to happen with the next administration.

This legislation will send a powerful message to Congress and the voters; Congress has become increasingly irresponsible with deficit spending and debt.  They need a wake-up call and now is the optimum time.

President Reagan got it right when he reminded us that:

“Government does not solve problems; it subsidizes them.”

“Government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem.”

“Government always finds a need for whatever money it gets.”

Transforming Congress and the Executive Branch are not the do-all, be-all efforts to cut spending but they are a start, they are understandable, they will save taxpayer money and they are within the art of the possible.  The Republican Party needs to embrace this concept of operations and Republican leaders in the House and 2024 Republican presidential candidates need to lead the way.

Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO EXECUTION, a book for leaders, and  FIX THE SYSTEMS, TRANSFORM AMERICA as well as the author of a blog WeThePeopleSpeaking.com

CUT SPENDING BY TRASFORMING CONGRESS INTO A MORE EFECTIVE AND EFFICIENT ORGANIZATION

In 2020 when the pandemic was beating up every aspect of our society the Congress concocted a 5,593-page-bill monstrosity for Covid-19 relief, The Cares Act.  Of course, it passed; nearly everyone could use a little relief from Covid and the taxpayers were stuck with the bill, all $1.8 trillion dollars.  But here is the pathetic part; under the guise of helping Americans through the pandemic, members of Congress took the opportunity to pork-up the bill with dozens, if not hundreds, of earmarked funding directives that had absolutely nothing to do with Covid or Covid relief.  Here is a sampling:

$10 million for “gender programs” in Pakistan,

$300 million for fisheries,

$100 million for NASA,

$300 million to Endowment for the Arts,

$300 million to Endowment for the Humanities,

$300 million to Public Broadcasting,

$500 million for Museums and Libraries, 

$720 million to Social Security Administration,

$315 million to the State Department,

$90 million to the Peace Corp,

$492 million to National Railroad Passenger Corp,

$526 million grant to Amtrak. 

$4.7 billion in foreign aid to nine countries.

The takeaway from this example is that under different circumstances, each of these expenditures could have/should have seen the light of day in one or more congressional committees where expert witnesses would have testified to the pros and cons of passing the funding.

The second takeaway is that the Covid Relief Act was not a one-off occurrence. Producing multi-thousand-page bills has become the norm. No one who votes for them has actually read them and therefore do not know what they are voting for or against. Should we be borrowing money for earmarks that have never been exposed to public scrutiny? If viewed separately by the American taxpayers, would they all pass the smell test?  Absolutely not.

For years politicians have been emphasizing the need for infrastructure spending.  So, in 2021 congress finally passed, in a bipartisan vote, a $1.2 trillion Infrastructure bill which, by the way, is also funding universal pre-K, child care, enhanced child tax credit, earned income tax credit, Affordable Care Act subsidies, Medicaid expansion, medical hearing benefits, affordable housing, Pell grants, children’s nutrition, immigration, state and local tax deductions, etc. etc. etc.  Only about 25% of the expenditures actually exist for real infrastructure such as roads, bridges and airports. What happened to the remaining $900 billion?

Why has Congress become so continuously inept when it comes to responsible spending?  Simply stated, they do not have a set of established operational standards and any organization without standards is a failed organization. Establish and enforce a set of simple standards and a lot of things in Washington can get fixed, quickly, including irrational spending of hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars.  

However, keep in mind that change is a frightening concept to most organizations.  Fixing Congress will take courage and strong, sensible, insightful leadership. The Republican Party is supposed to be the party of fiscal responsibility.  Now is the time.  We just finished a fiscal year with $1.7 trillion in deficit spending; up 23% from the previous year.

$33 trillion in national debt is a frighting reality. But what is worse is the realization that no one in Congress is doing anything to shut down the deficit spending and continuous borrowing.  The are two ways to go about achieving real fiscal constraints. 

One, we have to realize that the president’s annual budget is the sum of what it takes to fund every branch and division in the massive Executive Branch bureaucracy.  We need to also realize that too much of that bureaucracy is outdated, unnecessary, redundant, providing no value-added and just needs to go away.  The solution is to tear the U.S. Executive Branch apart piece by piece, rebuild it with elements that are actually providing value added and cut out hundreds of billions of dollars from the President’s budget each spring. But that project must wait for a president/vice president team of Republican fiscal conservatives; maybe 2024. 

The second way to cut spending is to change the way Congress operates.  Make it more efficient, more effective, more timely, more responsible.  Now is the time, right now with a new Speaker in the House of Representatives.  This can be Speaker Johnson’s greatest contribution, his legacy.  Certainly, it will be met with resistance but the American tax payers will welcome a simple, workable, inexpensive plan to cut spending rather than just keep saying, “we need spending cuts” as a sound bite and a headline.  

FIX THE SYSTEM, TRANSFORM CONGRSSIONAL SPENDING

I am suggesting institutionalizing a set of seven new operational standards for Congress.   But before we get to that, the members need to think about serving in Congress as a full-time job.  From 2001 to 2018, the Senate spent an average of 165 days in session each year, and the House spent an average of 140 days in session; less than three days average per week. 

Under the following plan, a small agency will be formed under the Inspector General (free from Congressional influence) inside the General Services Administration (an independent government organization) called the Congressional Legislation Standards Authority (CLSA) Their sole purpose will be to enforce these seven standards and to administer the life-cycle of a piece of legislation as explained below. The CLSA will NOT be in charge of the Congress.  They will NOT make policy.  But they will become the administrators of the day-to-day process of creating new legislation.  The Congress has proven that it is incapable of successfully and efficiently administrating themselves.  The CLSA would be something akin to the very valuable oversight we see from the Congressional Budget Office.

Since 1975 the Congressional Budget Office, CBO, has produced independent analyses of budgetary and economic issues to support the congressional budget process. Each year, the agency’s economists and budget analysts produce dozens of reports and hundreds of cost estimates for proposed legislation. Their work is objective, impartial and nonpartisan. 

Under the CLSA every bill will first appear on a Congressional web site operated solely by the CLSA that is totally dedicated to enforcing the standards for every bill.  Every member of Congress will receive an alert each time a new bill is proposed and posted on a congressional new-legislation website.  This website will be managed solely by the CLSA; The sponsors of a bill may contact the CLSA at any time to update schedules, to notify members of committee hearings, to make changes to the legislation, etc.  But the CLSA employees are the only ones who can access the site to add, delete or change any piece of information.

The CLSA does not have the authority to recommend changes, additions or deletions to the intent of the legislation.  Their function is to determine if the proposed legislation meets certain established standards, with particular emphasis on Standard Number Three, Applicability. 

STANDARD NUMBER ONE, OUTLAW “EARMARKING”: An earmark is a provision inserted into a discretionary spending bill that directs funds to a specific recipient while circumventing the merit-based or competitive funds allocation process.  Most earmarks are attached to a “must-pass” bill so that it is protected from non-passage or presidential veto. My definition of an earmark is an idea that would not have a snowball’s chance in hell of getting passed if, standing alone, it was exposed to the light of day.

STANDARD NUMBER TWO, SUNSET LEGISLATION: This is a measure, within a statute or regulation, that provides that the law shall cease to have effect after a specific future date, unless further legislative action is taken to extend the law. Most laws do not have sunset clauses and therefore remain in force indefinitely. Keep in mind that many laws cause some new Executive Branch organization to be created.  Our government is full of agencies, divisions and branches that require annual funding, while having outlived their requirement to exit.

STANDARD NUMBER THREE, APPLICABILITY: In the 2020, 5593-page Covid-19 relief bill there were scores of organizations funded from this bill that had absolutely zero association with the Covid-19 outbreak or relief thereof.

Hereafter all of the provisions of a particular bill must clearly identify with the subject, purpose and intent of the bill which could save hundreds of billions of needless expenditures per year.  It will prevent publishing bills that are too lengthy to read; e.g., not a single Representative or Senator actually read the 5593-page Covid-19 relief bill before they voted on it.

STANDARD NUMBER FOUR, STAND-ALONE: Every bill will be a single-issue piece of legislation. Period.

STANDARD NUMBER FIVE, TIME LIMITS: There are wo different situations to consider. One is the federal budget process and the other is all bills other than those in the budget process.

The non-budget process bills will get processed in one continuous process not to exceed 90-days.  The CLSA will grade the scheduling of all activities to insure it is ready to be voted on within the 90-day timeframe.  The exception to this is, at any time the bill’s sponsor or committee may pull it from consideration. (We will get to the federal budget process in a few minutes.)

STANDARD NUMBER SIX, LEADERS CANNOT HIDE A PENDING BILL:  The Speaker of the House and the Majority Leader in the Senate continuously practice sitting on bills, not allowing them to be voted on for protracted periods of time. This will not be allowed.  Every bill will be voted on or before the end of its 90-day window.

STANDARD NUMBER SEVEN, STANDARD WEBSITE FORMAT:  Every piece of legislation will be formatted with four specific sections and pages as follows:

SECTION ONE OF THE CLSA STANDARD FORMAT IS ALL ABOUT ACCOUNTABILITY AND TRANSPARENCY AND WILL LOOK LIKE THIS:

CONGRESSIONAL LEGISLATION STANDARDS AUTHORITY

Page 1, Administrative data

Current as of: ____ (date ____ All of the below data will be filled in as it becomes available from Congress.  For each new or changed data point, this “current as of” date will also be updated.

Title of the legislation:  ___   ($10 million for “gender programs” in Pakistan)_________

Date which starts the 90-day calendar:    ( the date the CLSA initially sends this out)

Not-later-than-date to be presented, debated and voted on the floor of the House of Representatives or Senate___(90 days after the above “start” date)_____

The member of Congress who is the principal sponsor: ______________________

co-sponsors: _______________________

                                                _______________________

                                                _______________________

Author of the proposed bill: ______________ (a member of Congress, the White House, a Congressional committee staff, Executive Branch Department, Non-governmental organization, lobbyist, private citizen, etc.)

Sunset legislation date:  ___(a date that must be included inside the Bill)_______

Schedule for committee hearings: ___(determined by congressional leaders)____

            ____(Foreign Affairs Committee)______

            ____(___etc.______Committee)______

COMMENTS ON DRAFTING OF LEGISLATION:  

Lobbyists. There are nearly 12,000 registered lobbyists in the US.  They work for businesses, professional associations, cities, states, non-profit organizations, etc.  They get paid to make things happen in government and mostly that is in the form of special interest legislation. Lobbyist are a prime source of today’s legislation and earmarks. It is not a completely negative concept but the downside is that they can too frequently get politicians to earmark appropriations that are self-serving and not in the best interest of the general public. 

Congressional committee staffers.  Staffers write much of the legislation today and therein lies a big problem.  Because many issues rarely fit nicely inside the domain of a single committee, there will ultimately be multiple committee staffers, working on behalf of their politicians and bringing their individual thoughts and prejudices to the effort. Too often, having begun in good faith to build a thoroughbred race horse, they end up with a camel. Under today’s system that “camel” ends up earmarked to some “must pass” bill and eventually in some Executive Branch, department or agency for execution. By then, the original intent for the bill may be so convoluted that it is potentially a complete waste of time, energy, money and is one of the causes of the gross inefficiency of government. 

The Executive Branch of government, to include the president, should author a larger portion of the bills.  Why?  Because they know the who, what, when, where, why and how details of their proposals and should not be delegated to lobbyists or congressional staffers. Why not let the experts, those who will be responsible for execution, do the up-front piece?  For example, if the Department of Homeland Security needs $400 million for border security, they should write the proposed bill and seek out some member(s) of Congress to sponsor it.

SECTION 2 OF THE STANDARD WEBSITE FORMAT WILL LOOK LIKE THIS:

CONGRESSIONAL LEGISLATION STANDARDS AUTHORITY

Page 2, Legislation Intent

Current as of: ____(date inserted by CLSA)_____

(CLSA Instructions:  This narrative must be limited to one single-spaced page, font 12 and must begin with the words, THE PURPOSE OF THIS LEGISLATION IS TO…….

Intent is one of the least used and most important aspects of any law.  Congress and the authors of a bill should not leave it to the applicable governmental departments to infuse their own intent for what the laws should or should not be about. 

SECTION 3 OF THE STANDARD WEBSITE FORMAT WILL LOOK LIKE THIS:

CONGRESSIONAL LEGISLATION STANDARDS AUTHORITY

Page 3, Component outline

Current as of: ____(date inserted by CLSA)_____

            (CLSA instructions: provide an outline of the major elements.  The format

will be similar to a Table of Contents but with a few sentences explaining each entry.

SECTION 4 OF THE STANDARD WEBSITE FORMAT WILL LOOK LIKE THIS:

CONGRESSIONAL LEGISLATION STANDARDS AUTHORITY

The Entire Bill, (e.g.HR-12 or S-16}

Current as of: ____(date inserted by CLSA)_____

CONCLUSIONS about having Congressional Legislation Standards Authority oversight of day-to-day stand-alone legislation:

  • $10 million for gender programs in Pakistan. After the fact; that’s when we found out about this and dozens more ridiculous “Covid-19 relief” packages.  Who knew about them before they became law?  None of us.  Why?  Because the Congress can waste our tax dollars almost at will while hiding behind a wall of anonymity. What happened to accountability?  Without standards there is no accountability.
  • Under the above proposed program, The Congressional Legislation Standards Authority (CLSA), we would have known on day-one who sponsored this insane earmark.  We would have known when a committee was going to discuss it.  We would have known weeks in advance when it was going to be voted on.  We would have known all this because it would have been a stand-alone bill, not hidden inside a 5593-page unread bill.  Accountability and transparency would have been front and center. The fact is, it would never have made it to the floor for a vote because visibility to the press and to we-the-people would have caused it to go away. 
  • Furthermore, one of the great advantages of a standards-based legislative process is that in all likelihood, the bill would never have been written because anonymity is non-existent.
  • Journalists will use the CLSA website as a source for up-to-the-minute reporting on pending legislation.  Citizens can read it, learn what the legislation is all about, understand the positives and negatives of the intent and weigh in with their elected legislators before, not after, it becomes the law of the land.
  • After about a year, this simple process will guide all new-legislation activities in the Congress and will be accepted as the new normal.  This process has the potential to save hundreds of billions of dollars per year.  It will have the effect of spending our tax dollars first in support of we-the-people.
  • Additionally, and perhaps most importantly, this more disciplined approach to legislation could have the long-term impact of moving toward greater fiscal responsibility building towards a future balanced budget mindset.   
  • Successful, admired organizations operate this way every day. It is as simple as one-two-three.  One, thoroughly define a single TASK at hand.  Two, define the CONDITIONS, in this case stand-alone bills. Three, set and enforce the operating STANDARDS without exceptions. 
  • Task, conditions, standards; this new approach to doing the peoples’ business in Washington is within the art of the possible and it will not cost a dime to adopt and institutionalize operational change.  But as noted earlier it will take great leadership to put it in place and make it happen.

THE FEDERAL BUDGET PROCESS STANDARDS:

As previously stated above in STANDARD NUMBER FIVE, TIME LIMITS, there are two different situations to consider; the non-budget related bill with sections 1-4 defined above, and now a look at the federal budget process legislation.  

THE FEDERAL BUDGET PROCESS LEGISLATION: To develop and pass a new budget with twelve separate appropriations bills is supposed to be a standardized 8-month process from early February through the end of the current fiscal year on 30 September.  

THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH RESPONSIBILITIES:  Each October federal agencies begin compiling their budgets for the following fiscal year and submit their proposals to the President via the Office of Management and Budget (OMB).  OMB edits, calculates, and coordinates the budget for final review and approval by the President.  The President then forwards the approved proposal to the House and Senate, hopefully, by the first Monday in February.  

CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEE ACTIONS: The Budget Act of 1974 lays out the required congressional actions, February through September of each year, in order to have a completed, agreed upon and signed budget by 30 September. Upon receipt of the president’s budget, various Committees begin reviewing their respective sections of the budget; the process is spear-headed by the Budget Committee.

BUDGET RESOLUTION:  The Budget Resolution document is then worked in the House and Senate. The budget resolution process allows Congress to establish a framework within which the House and Senate will consider budget-related legislation and set revenue and spending levels. The Budget Act set a target date of 15 April for adoption of a budget resolution by both chambers. The CLSA will closely monitor the resolution process looking for violations of the standards on earmarking and applicability.

The Budget Act further sets a target date of 15 June for completing action on reconciliation legislation if required in able to complete the resolution. Without resolution between the House and Senate there are no rules, no timelines, no standards and no discipline.  All of that leads directly to the chaos and disasters of completing a budget for all twelve separate appropriations bills by 30 September.

Following budget resolution and reconciliation, April through June, the 90-day CLSA standard window begins for passage of the twelve budget appropriations. 

Resolution and reconciliation during April, May and June sounds reasonable.  But in fact, that is the period when congressional ineptitude begins to impact the Budget Resolution process because they choose to disregard protocols and standards. For example, in six of the seven fiscal years, 2014-2020, Congress never adopted a formal budget resolution at all.

Comment:  One of the most basic Constitutional tasks for Congress is to pass a fiscal year budget and do it on time.  However, Congressional indiscipline continues to place the day-to-day functioning of the federal government in jeopardy and thereby negatively affecting nearly all Americans.

Failure to pass the appropriation bills on time results in either passing continuing resolutions (CRs) or shut down the government.  Congress has used CRs in 40 of the 44 fiscal years, 1976-2020. In FY 2013 a full-year CR covered 7 of the 12 budget appropriations. As of 2020 it has been 23 years since all of the appropriations bills were passed prior to the beginning of the next fiscal year.  This is unacceptable institutionalized irresponsibility and ineptitude.  The system is seriously broken because of the failure of the senior leaders, House Speaker, Senate Majority Leader and Committee Chairpersons.

Continuing resolutions in the absence of a budget can waste billions of dollars. A new fiscal year budget will always drop obligations, programs and spending that are no longer needed or desired. Going forward into the new fiscal year, efficiency and effectiveness are hampered because of the absence of new fiscal year funding for essential new programs.

This has become so routine that Congress seems to treat this monumental failure as business as usual, as OK. Well, it is not OK. It is first of all against the law, The Budget Act of 1974. It is not fair to we-the-people who sent you there to do the peoples’ business and the first order of business is to have a budget.

STANDARDS FOR THE ANNUAL BUDGET PROCESS, FEBRUARY THROUGH SEPTEMBER. STANDARD NUMBER ONE:  Leaders publish detailed plans

STANDARD NUMBER TWO:  IPRs

STANDARD NUMBER THREE:  Work days

STANDARD NUMBER FOUR:  Election year schedule

the Congressional Legislation Standards Authority needs to come into play again as follows beginning with these website pages:

CONGRESSIONAL LEGISLATION STANDARDS AUTHORITY and THE ANNUAL BUDGET PROCESS

The Speaker of the House, the Majority Leader in the Senate and House and Senate Budget Committee chairpersons will be required to prepare and publish a Concept of Operations for the FY 2025 budget preparation process published on the CLSA website not later than 15 January.  Their narratives will cover the who/what/when/where/why and how of the process in great detail. 

(The CLSA will, prior to putting the above proposals on the web site, reconcile any conflicts in dates or products.) 

Milestones will be set and not broken.  Committee chairpersons will frequently be required to brief their senior leaders on their progress, problems, issues and likelihood of meeting their deadlines. They are called in-progress reviews, IPRs. 

If committee work is behind schedule, the senior leaders will direct night and weekend work to ensure on-time results. 

Each of the leaders’ directives will include consideration of the fact that 2024 is an election year and August/September will be campaign time for all but a few of the Senators.

BOTTOM LINE:

We cannot go into FY 2025 with continuing resolutions and a potential

 government shutdown with a post-election lame-duke government.

The new Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, is in a perfect position to bring forward a new idea on how to make the budget process an annual success vs the annual disaster it has been for decades. 

Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of two books, Vision to Execution and Fix the Systems, Transform America as well as the author of a blog, WeThePeopleSpeaking.com

2022-2023, UKRAINE, SUDAN, ISRAEL CONFLICTS. WHY NOT WORLD PEACE INSTEAD?

Russia invades the sovereign nation of Ukraine, in February 2022.  The world watches, in real-time, levels of destruction not seen since World War II newsreels that would, after the fact, be shown in movie theaters.

Ninety-eight percent of the world’s current population of 8 billion have no personal recollection of the WWII destruction in Europe. Therefore, this ongoing invasion of Ukraine is a game-changer invoking questions like, “How could this possibly happen today?  Why have we not stopped it?  What can we do?  How can they deliberately target women and children?  Who can help?  Should some collective group of countries join forces and counterattack Russian forces?  What should NATO do?  Should the EU put together a counteroffensive force?  Who would/should lead such a force?  Can Ukrainians ever rebuild the tens of thousands of destroyed structures?  If the invasion ended tomorrow, where would the returning refugees live?  Who could/should finance rebuilding Ukraine? Where will they find food and clean water?  Where will they work?   Will there be electricity?” etc. etc. etc.  The questions are almost endless because it is an understatement to say, “This is unprecedented today.” Good questions. We need answers and actions.

The escalation in the conflict between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) reaches its sixth month, 15 October 2023, resulting in the deaths of at least 5,000 civilians, more than 12,000 injured, and over 5.7 million people forcibly displaced. What if this could have been prevented?

October 2023 Hamas militias attacked Israel from Gaza with ground forces and rockets killing and injuring thousands of innocent civilians and taking hundreds of hostages. What if these types of attacks from organization were to never happen again?

The daily media dose of reality from Ukraine, Sudan and Israel has touched nearly everyone’s heart and mind with feelings of disbelief, distrust, disgust, and anger towards the aggressor leaders; empathy, sorrow, and compassion for the millions of in-country displaced citizens, out of country refugees, those mourning killed or missing family members and what the people face in the foreseeable future. What if there was a system in place to prevent this?

The purpose of this essay is to present a concept of operations for implementation of an in-place, continuously operational International Deterrence Force to preemptively prevent conflict and create lasting world peace. 

When Ukraine, Sudan and Hamas/Israel are over, an international after-action review should be initiated.  It must not be a thousand-page bureaucratic “study” published in a couple of years which would be worse than worthless. What it must be is a succinct accounting of three simple, but essential, questions:

First, what, collectively, did we, the world, do well?

Second, what should we, could we, the world, have done better?

Finally, and most importantly, how can we institutionalize a faster, better, more organized, more aggressive, and all-inclusive plan for preemptive actions that would preclude these acts from ever happening again?

THE PROBLEM:  If we cannot define the problem, there is no solution.  The problem is two-fold.  First, is the realization that throughout mankind there have always been and will always be evil men who will kill others for control, power and profit.  The second problem is that we, the innocent, do not have a plan to prevent the evil among us from killing others on a massive scale.  Case in point, Ukraine, Sudan, Israel today.

BACKGROUND leading to a proposed solution:

THE LEAGUE OF NATIONS: 

With technically-advanced machine guns, tanks, and chemical warfare, World War I was optimistically referred to as “The war to end all wars.”  January 1918, U.S. President Woodrow Wilson outlined an idea for an organization that would be charged with resolving conflicts before they exploded into bloodshed.  In 1919 the structure of The League of Nations was laid out in Paris and the Treaty of Versailles went into effect in January 1920 with 48 member countries. The U.S. Congress failed to ratify our membership in the League.  Between 1920 and World War II there were numerous opportunities to act, but it never did.  The League of Nations was abandoned during World War II.  The League was not necessarily a bad idea, but numerous times, when actions were required, European countries found it too difficult to put together an effective united front against an aggressor to include the rise of Germany.

THE UNITED NATIONS:

In June 1941 representatives from thirteen nations (the U.S. was not included) met in London and signed the Declaration of St. James’s Palace expressing a vision for postwar world order.  The next step was the Atlantic Conference in August 1941, at which President Roosevelt and Prime Minister Winston Churchill laid out a more detailed form of the alliance called The Atlantic Charter. The final step was the Yalta Conference, in February 1945 when Roosevelt, Churchill, and Stalin agreed on the establishment of the United Nations as well as the structure of the Security Council.   

Despite having endured for 77 years, generally speaking, the UN is a weak-intentioned bureaucratic mass that is involved in everything and accomplishes very little.  Case in point, has the UN responded to the Russian invasion?  Yes, on March 3rd they voted overwhelmingly for a resolution deploring Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and called for the immediate withdrawal of its forces.  Wow, that must have shaken Putin to his core.

The UN is an established international organization perfectly positioned to be a greater force for the greater good of the collective world.  But in its current condition, it is incapable of deterring or bringing to a close a conflict such as that exists in Ukraine, Sudan and Israel today. We need to completely rethink this issue, right now.

THE UN TODAY: 

To understand what must be fixed, here is a short-hand view of what is wrong. The UN consists of Six Principle Organs:

·       General Assembly

·       Security Council

·       Economic and Social Council

·       Secretariat

·       International Court of Justice

·       Trusteeship Council (currently inactive)

THE SECURITY COUNCIL:

The Security Council consists of five permanent members, the U.S., China, Russia, France, and the UK (allies during WW II), and ten elected members.  The presidency of the Council rotates among the fifteen members, each serving for one month.  Is anyone surprised that Russia was president in February 2022 when they attacked Ukraine?

Under the United Nations Charter, the principal function of the Security Council is to “Ensure international peace and security.” Additionally, the subset authority allows the Council to: 

  • Investigate any dispute or situation which might lead to international friction.
  • Recommend methods of adjusting such disputes or the terms of a settlement.
  • Formulate plans for the establishment of a system to regulate armaments. Determine the existence of a threat to the peace or act of aggression and recommend what action should be taken.
  • Call on Members to apply economic sanctions and other measures not involving the use of force to prevent or stop aggression. 
  • Take military action against an aggressor.

Given these clearly articulated responsibilities and authority, we can conclude that the UN in general and the Security Council, in particular, have been abject failures for seven decades. First of all, can you imagine a large international company CEO having fifteen Executive Vice Presidents, each allowed to lead for a month every fifteen months; thereby allowing each to bring his or her biases and priorities to the forefront.  It’s insane.

A perfect example of the UN’s ineptitude is that they have never identified either Hamas or Hizballah as terrorist organizations.! They are “legitimate political movements.”

A UN INITIATIVE FOR WORLD PEACE:

How is world peace possible? In a word, deterrence.  That is fear, in the mind of any potential aggressor, of rapid retaliation by a superior force.  It is possible for the United Nations to establish and sustain a world military force to deter and, if necessary, bring to bear on the battlefield the collective military might of the other 194 member nations?  Here is an outline:

Every member nation would agree to contribute to a worldwide deterrent force that can be deployed anywhere in the world within seven days.  Every nation will contribute according to its capabilities.  Some examples

The U.S. has the greatest capability in the world for worldwide force projection.  For example, the world watched in awe in 1990 as the U.S. deployed an overwhelming force to the Gulf War and, in two days of fighting, defeated Iraqi forces which had invaded Kuwait.  One U.S. contribution to the UN force could be our entire air-cargo fleet to fly directly to various countries and transport their force contribution directly to the targeted area.  Another critical U.S. contribution could be our fleet of about 650 aerial refueling tankers; by comparison, the remaining countries have about 250. Another could be our aircraft carriers and submarine fleets.

Countries with few military resources (36 nations do not have a defense budget) could provide field hospitals, portable field surgical units with doctors and nurses, aircraft maintenance capabilities, truck drivers, border patrol personnel, etc. Nations with only small maneuver organizations could provide, for example, man-portable air defense and anti-tank teams and snipers.  There would be a very long list of non-combatant rear-area support requirements.  Countries with established combat forces could provide special operations personnel, armored units, light infantry, artillery, helicopters, tactical aircraft, naval vessels, air defense, combat engineers, all the elements for a military theater of operations. Selected nations in several regions would be responsible for providing an airport that can be quickly transformed into a full-up military operation with multiple runways, an expanded tarmac, maintenance facilities, and housing for the military contingent. 

The force could be called the International Deterrence Force, IDF.  The “D” in IDF does not stand for Defense.  The IDF will not be designed for defense. It will send an undeniable message to any nation that is contemplating an offensive action that within seven days an overwhelming force compiled from over 150 contributing nations can be in place for a counteroffensive.  That is the real-world definition of deterrence.  The UN/IDF could borrow NATO’s Article 5 concept, An attack on one member is an attack against all members.”

Who pulls this all together?  A 4-star military leader with senior command experience would be nominated by the UN Secretary-General.  After being thoroughly vetted, he/she will be voted on by the General Assembly by secret ballot. A majority vote will secure a two-year assignment which can be extended to four years.  The IDF Commander will select a deputy and the two of them will put together a lean-and-mean, full-time, rapidly deployable international staff.  The commander’s headquarters will be in Europe while the deputy will be in Asia.  For the sake of continuity, upon completion of the IDF Commander’s tour, the deputy will get first consideration as the replacement. The IDF staff will consist of subordinate commanders for ground forces, air, naval, theater logistics, and humanitarian issues. 

Every six months the Commander will personally brief the UN General Assembly on IDF readiness.  For every nation, their IDF contribution will be subject to inspection by the IDF Commander/Deputy Commander and their staffs. Every nation must regularly inform the IDF when their force will be engaged in military exercises so that they can be observed.  The IDF Commander will establish and publish standards for every contributed element.  Every nation will provide a very detailed quarterly readiness report on the trained-to-standard and deployability status of their IDF contribution.

The IDF headquarters will maintain a robust intel-processing element linked to the intel gathering capabilities of all 195 countries. 

International Deterrence Force Condition, IDFCON: All contributing nations will exist in a state of one of four different readiness IDFCONs.

IDFCON 1:  Normal peacetime condition.  A completed plan will be in place in every member nation.  Readiness standards will be in force for every IDF element.

IDFCON 2:  The Secretary-General and IDF Commander, having identified a potential threat to a member nation, will tailor a force for deployment and place them on 24-hour alert.

IDFCON 3:  All personnel and equipment for the designated units will move to assembly areas.  Deployment aircraft will move to their first pick-up airfield.

IDFCON 4:  Deployment of all designated deterrence elements to the target area and preparing to initiate an overwhelming counteroffensive.

FUNDING: 

The UN will budget for the two IDF headquarters.  The participating nations will budget for and fund their participating units and sustain them at trained-and-ready IDF combat-ready standards. 

The IDF Operations Plan will first and foremost be designed with the intent for every element to rapidly deploy to an area of operation where they can represent an overwhelming deterrent force from all 194-member nations.  But the total force may not, in all cases, be necessary.  Therefore, the next planning step is to have the capability to rapidly tailor a force for scenarios that require a lesser, but still overwhelming (as the saying goes, “always take a gun to a knife fight”), a force sufficient to deter, and if necessary, counter attack.  Two examples:

An attack on small country “A” in Africa appears imminent by a more powerful neighboring country “B”.  The IDF Commander determines that inserting a couple infantry battalions on the ground could sufficiently deter the attack. Using the concept to always have an overwhelming advantage, the commander will deploy a full infantry brigade along with combat supporting forces and tactical air support. Result, Country “B” packs up and goes home. Deterrence is a powerful force for world peace. 

A more serious and far-ranging scenario might look like this:  China continues to threaten Taiwan with aggressive air and naval operations.  It is determined that the demonstrations are a rehearsal for an actual attack.   The Secretary-General and IDF Commander agree to go to IDFCON 3.  China’s Achilles heel is imported gas and oil.  Inform China that a combined naval force from member nations is in route to the South China Sea to create an impenetrable blockade of all incoming gas and oil tankers.  Additionally, missiles and aircraft capable of taking out the gas and oil pipelines from Russia will be immediately forward deployed.  This scenario could shut down China in a few weeks and result in half-a-billion unemployed workers.  The Secretary General will demand that China publicly sign a pledge to acknowledge that forevermore Taiwan will be considered an independent nation free of all ties to China and provocative military actions against Taiwan are forbidden. Deterrence in action in support of world peace. 

BOTTOM LINE ON THE UN:

Having laid out a concept of operations for an International Deterrence Force capable of achieving world peace, it is time to admit that, given today’s reality, it cannot happen inside the existing UN.

The UN has been a failed institution since its inception in 1945 for one reason, “the veto”.  At the Yalta Conference in 1945 President Roosevelt, General Secretary Stalin, and Prime Minister Churchill agreed that each of the permanent members of the Security Council was to be granted veto power over any resolution under consideration.  The UN Secretary-General is a powerless position, the power resides in the Security Council.  More specifically, the power resides with the five permanent members, U.S., UK, France, China, and Russia.

Every significant resolution to be considered by the General Assembly must first be voted out of the Security Council.  Each of the fifteen members (five permanent and ten elected for a temporary term) have one vote.  But here is the problem, the Charter says, “Affirmative decisions shall be made by a vote of nine members, including the concurring votes of all five of the permanent members.”  One veto by a permanent member and the resolution is dead. Most would agree that Communist China and Communist Russia will never agree to changes to the UN Charter that would stand up to the IDF. 

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Hamas invasion of Israel, the Sudan fight, the unprecedented civilian casualties, and the wanton destruction of civilian property have become a wake-up call for the world.  Now is the time, and it may never be more relevant, to strike with a plan that will, to the greatest extent possible, guarantee world peace.  There are two courses of action, one internal to the UN and the second external:

COURSE OF ACTION ONE: INTERNAL UN UPRISING: 

The Secretary-General could work to garner support from, let’s say, about 150 member nations for a change to the UN Charter.  The changes, none of which are currently authorized, could be as follows:

  • Do away with the Security Council.
  • Move the mission statement, that for seven decades has been the unfulfilled responsibility of the Security Council, to the Secretariat; “Ensure international peace and security.”
  • Replace the appointment process for a new Secretary-General with a system whereby anyone from a member nation can campaign for the position.  A new Secretary-General will be elected for a 6-year term by a majority vote of the General Assembly. 
  • Proceed to establish the International Deterrence Force.

COURSE OF ACTION TWO: UPRISING EXTERNAL TO THE UN:

The U.S. could initiate actions to seek support from most of the 195 current UN member nations to join a new organization called United for World Peace. The organization would look like this:

  • A small headquarters anywhere in the world.
  • An elected president for one six-year term.
  • A fully operational International Deterrence Force as described above.
  • The United for World Peace mission statement could be pulled directly from the UN Charter: 

Ensure international peace and security” by executing the following:

  • Investigate any dispute or situation which might lead to international friction.
  • Recommend methods of adjusting such disputes or the terms of the settlement.
  • Formulate plans for the establishment of a system to regulate armaments.
  • Determine the existence of a threat to the peace or act of aggression and recommend what action should be taken.
  • Call on Members to apply economic sanctions and other measures not involving the use of force to prevent or stop aggression. 
  • Take military action against an aggressor.

The U.S. could lead this initiative and it should be done now while the Ukraine/Sudan/Israeli situations are fresh in everyone’s minds.  The selling points are obvious:

  • The UN Charter, with its “one veto” policy cannot be fixed and renders the UN helpless. 
  • We must prevent a repeat of a Ukrainian-like disaster.
  • We must be proactive with an overwhelming deterrence force continuously in place.
  • NATO, in being since 1949, is a perfect example of deterrence in action.
  • For all United for World Peace member nations, an attack against one would be an attack against all.
  • Every member nation would commit some resource to an International Deterrence Force by their capability.

Why would countries sign up to be a member? Here is a starter list of answers as to why a United for World Peace organization is needed now and why it would be an easy sell at this point. 

  • Middle East countries and Israel are fearful of the hegemony intentions of a nuclear-equipped Iran but powerless individually to stop it.
  • South Korea and Japan are very nervous about North Korea’s aggressive offensive missile and nuclear programs. 
  • Taiwan is fearful of a China invasion. 
  • Europe is fearful of Russian aggression. 
  • Former Soviet Republics are fearful that they may be next on Putin’s list.
  • The Baltic countries and Finland are fearful of Russia, and
  •  India is in a constant state of unrest over China’s border incursions.
  • Who knows what the next move may be by dictators in Latin America? 
  • African border disputes are a recurring concern. 
  • Nations’, such as Iran, support for terrorist activities threatens the world.
  • Aggressors who would use cyberattacks to inflict humanitarian and economic disaster on another nation are a growing threat. 

It is not difficult to believe the United for World Peace organization could quickly become a 150-nation force for peace.

CONCLUSIONS for both courses of action:

  • A successful United for World Peace organization (Course of action 2) could be subsumed by the UN if they can find a way to revise the existing Charter (course of action 1). 
  • With an International Deterrence Force in place there is no longer a requirement for NATO. 
  •  With the IDF in place, defense funding could probably be reduced around the world by hundreds of billions, if not trillions of dollars per year. For example, right now NATO members (Germany in particular) are ramping up their defense spending for forces that may be redundant beyond IDF requirements. 
  • There will no longer be a need for nations’ bilateral treaties for mutual defense. 
  • Since 2016 the European Union has been talking about the need for an EU armed force.  Cancel that.
  • With world peace assurances in place, the next step could be a world without nuclear weapons, chemical weapons, or biological weapons.
  • The UN “peacekeeping force” budget for 2021 was $6.38 billion.  With active worldwide deterrence and an overwhelming rapidly-deployable counter-offensive force, peace will be the standard day-to-day condition.
  • The next step could be for the IDF Commander to visit North Korea to discuss ICBM and nuclear testing.  Then on to Iran to discuss Iran’s role as the world’s leading supporter of terrorist organizations.  Etc. etc. etc.
  •  With a proactive International Deterrence Force in place, no nation would ever need to feel alone or stand-alone.
  • There is currently a lot of discussion about the New World Order. Well, here is a new twist on The New World Order, call it World Peace.

FINAL THOUGHTS:

Mr. President, you are currently, “The leader of the free world” in name only.  Here is an opportunity to lead the world towards sustained world peace.  Make it your number one, non-political priority. 

From Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar, “There is a tide in the affairs of men when taken at the flood leads one to fortune.” There will never be a more appropriate time than now to pursue a solution for future world peace.

Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO EXECUTION, a book for leaders, FIX THE SYSTEMS, TRANSFORM AMERICA as well as the author of a blog WeThePeopleSpeaking.com

LEADERS COMMAND THE PRESENT, ADVANCE IDEAS AND SHAPE THE FUTURE

COMMAND THE PRESENT:

“Present” is a relative term.  In some scenarios “present” could mean immediately or in others it could mean in hours, days, weeks or even months.  For example, on Saturday morning, 7 September, 2023 Israeli President Netanyahu was probably making command decisions within minutes but certainly within hours of the Hamas militant’s invasion.

By close of business on 7 September the barbarity of the invaders had become common knowledge around the world.  Such is the nature of today’s communications capabilities.

President Biden, supposedly and also questionably the “leader of the free world” would, it was assumed, at some point speak for the United States and, again questionably, for our allies around the free world about the Hamas invasion.  Prepared remarks by close of business Saturday would have been appropriate.  A speech on Sunday was surely expected. But wait, we must consider that first of all Biden does not work on the weekends and secondly the schedule was already full.  Late Sunday afternoon and on into the early evening he was busy hosting a picnic barbecue in the White House Rose Garden with a live band while Hamas was hosting Israeli and American hostages in Gaza City. No kidding, you can’t make this stuff up.

So, Monday, everyone said we should be hearing from the President.  There was no new news; Monday was pretty much a continuation of what took place beginning on Saturday.  Where is he, everyone was asking?

Finally on Tuesday afternoon after a 1-hour 15-minute delay Biden spoke.  His words were graphic, on-target and appropriate as he described what Hamas was doing on the ground.

But, OMG, after a few minutes of what was sounding like “setting the stage” comments, he abruptly shut his notebook and exited stage right. 

If you are either an American citizen or one of our allies, you wanted more, expected more and should have been given more.  As is the Biden routine, I’m sure the media representatives seated in the room had submitted their questions in advance and the White House staff had carefully crafted note-card responses for each question for the President just in case he decided at the last moment to actually take questions.  The fact that he could not conduct a Q and A on the single topic of the day speaks volumes.

Mr. President, what about the $6 billion you just gave to Iran; what was Iran’s roll in the invasion; will you send U.S. forces to help Israel; they shouted as he literally and figuratively turned his back on the world. 

So much for “commanding the present.”  Not even an “E” for effort, that was an “F”.

“ADVANCE IDEAS:”

In the usual course of events, one advances ideas to solve a problem.  So, first things first, we have to define the problem.  We are in a global war on terrorism and have been, actively, since the 9/11 attack on the U.S.

The U.S. State Department listing of terrorists includes 60+ organizations around the world; most of them are nothing more than small hate groups with few if any military resources. But over the last about 40 years, the Iranian regime has built a network of armed groups on Israel’s borders to create instability and foment terrorism.  Potentially ready to join Hamas and Hezbollah, are 17 more Islamic Jihad groups who receive funding, training, and weapons from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.  That is not classified information, why didn’t our President tell us that as part of his leader responsibility to “advance ideas?

The Monday, October 9th edition of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL, writing about the attack on Israel, reported, “Officers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had worked with Hamas since August to devise the air, land and sea incursion. Details of the operation were refined during several meetings in Beirut Lebanon attended by IRGC officers and representatives of four Iran-backed militant groups.” The WSJ went on to report, “The IRGC’s wider plan is to create a multifront threat that can strangle Israel from all sides.  We know that there were meetings in Syria and in Lebanon with other leaders of the terror armies that surround Israel. We are now free to focus on the Zionist entity, the Iranian official said, they are now very isolated.”  

The U.S. intelligence budget exceeds $70 billion per year for 17 agencies and we have to find this out from THE WALL STREET JOURNAL?  And our president wouldn’t tell us?

Back to defining the problem.  On a day-to-day basis around the world the terrorists are not THE problem.  THE problem is Iran.  Iran was first designated as a State Sponsor of Terrorism in 1984 so they have a long history of how to provide the necessary support for a terrorist group to become an actual threat.  

SHAPE THE FUTURE:

The future is now.  Get on with it Congress.  Get on with it Biden. For years, Iran Ayatollahs have been publicly calling for “death to America and destruction of Israel.” When the hell is Biden going to get his back up and say it, “Iran is our enemy and we need to do something about it now.”

Consider this scenario.  Iran has been training and equipping terrorist organizations to fight as their military proxy for years.  According to the Institute for Science and International Security, 11 September, 2023, “Iran now has the capacity to fuel 6 nuclear warheads in one month’s time, and 10 within four months.”

So, the next Iran-sponsored terrorist attack could be from a van legally parked in Manhattan loaded with a dirty nuclear bomb. Experts warn that it would be relatively easy for terrorists to build an “improvised nuclear bomb” and smuggle it into America. Building a ten-kiloton bomb nearly as destructive as the one dropped on Hiroshima would require little more than some technical expertise and 46 kilograms of highly enriched uranium; a quantity about the size of a bowling ball.

Should we just sit around sucking our collective thumbs waiting for Iran to strike?  We should take their “destruction of America” seriously and begin to SHAPE THE FUTURE.

As retribution for its role in the attack on Israel, Congress and Biden should move immediately to place every possible sanction on Iran. Convince our allies to sign on to the same sanctions menu. Pull back the $6 billion check to Iran, now.

Convince the UN or NATO or just some number of allies to participate in an embargo on oil exports.  Keep in mind that Iran is currently exporting about 3.5 million barrels per day which is filling their coffers to support, for example, the current attack on Israel.  There is an addition side to the oil issue.  China, who has been courting Iran as their Middle East “partner” imports over 11 million barrels of oil per day to survive. In August 2023 China imported 1.5 million barrels per day from Iran. An oil embargo puts the squeeze on Iran and also gets China’s attention. The embargo could be enforced by a naval force from UN members, from NATO or perhaps even from some Middle East countries who see Iran’s long-range plan to bully other Middle East countries into submission. 

Make the world understand that Iran is an international threat and must be promptly taken down economically.

BOTTOM LINE:

Real leaders command the present, advance ideas and shape the future. We are in deep trouble.

Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of two books, Vision to Execution and Fix the Systems, Transform America as well as the author of a blog, WeThePeopleSpeaking.com

ISRAEL INVASION, FIRST THOUGHTS

First Associated Press release 7 October:  Hamas militants fired thousands of rockets and sent dozens of fighters into Israeli towns near the Gaza Strip in an unprecedented surprise early morning attack during a major Jewish holiday killing dozens and stunning the country. Israel said it was now at war with Hamas and launched airstrikes in Gaza, vowing to inflict an “unprecedented price.”

It’ Saturday morning, first thoughts on what should happen this weekend.

FACTS BEARING ON THE ISSUE:

Israel cannot utilize all of the Israeli Defense Force, IDF against the invading Hamas militants because of the potential for Hizballah terrorists in Lebanon on the Israeli northern border to join the invasion and/or attacks from Syria bordering the Israeli Golon Heights.

This invasion is Iran’s doing.  Hamas militants are Iran’s proxy fighters today. They are fighting with Iran-supplied arms and ammunition.  They are destroying Israeli facilities and killing Israeli civilians with thousands of Iran-supplied rockets.

IDF TACTICS:  Hamas forces reportedly occupy small towns near the Gaza/Israel border and have taken Israeli hostages. I would, in this order:

First, use all available IDF ground forces to stop the advancement of Hamas further into Israeli territory and collect as many POWs as possible.

Second, then attempt to get behind Hamas and reestablish control of the Gaza/Israel border.  And send a message to the Hamas leadership that for every Israeli hostage released, Israel will return ten captured Hamas militants across the border into Gaza.  Then, using “Israeli math”, inform Hamas that for every dead Israeli captive, Israel will send back a truck load of 100 Hamas militants killed in action.

President Netanyahu should immediately inform Hizballah in Lebanon that for every militant who crosses the northern border, Israeli air forces will send 10 air strikes against all suspect Hizballah forces and/or facilities. Also send the same message to Syrian leader, Bashar al-Assad.

AS SUPPOSED LEADER OF THE FREE WORLD, President Biden should spend the weekend in the Situation Room and immediately contact the leaders of the other four permanent UN Security Council members (China, Russia, France and the UK) and insist that the Council meet immediately to condemn the invasion.  Russia and China will object and this will tell the world where they stand on the invasion.  The remaining ten temporary Security Council members, (Albania, Brazil, Ecuador, Gabon, Ghana, Japan, Malta, Mozambique, Switzerland, United Arab Emirates) should be contacted and encouraged to vote for an immediate condemnation.

Also President Biden should call the President of the UN General Assembly, Dennis Frances, and insist on a General Assembly meeting over the weekend to do several things:

  • Condemnation of the invasion.
  • Approve a long list of immediate sanctions against Iran, the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism. For years Iran Ayatollahs have been publicly calling for “death to America and destruction of Israel.” It’s time for the UN to put on its big-boy pants and shut them down.
  • Immediately impose a UN sanctioned embargo of oil exports from Iran. Iran exports of oil per day averages about 3.5 million barrels.  Oil exports is what holds up their economy and allows them to move forward with support for world-wide terrorism as well as all the necessary ingredients to soon have a nuclear weapon.  China imports over 11 million barrels per day to survive. In August 2023 China imported 1.5 million barrels per day from Iran. The oil embargo puts the squeeze on Iran and also gets China’s attention. The embargo could be enforced by a naval force from UN members.

The problem with the above is that it won’t happen for two reasons.

First of all, Biden is incapable of creating that kind of global influence.

Secondly, the UN as a functioning organization is essentially powerless.  Nothing happens in the General Assemble unless it is passed in the Security Council.  The rules in the security council provide that 9 of the 15 members must vote yes. But here is the kicker; if only one of the permanent members votes “no” the issue is dead.  Bottom line, China and Russia are in almost total control. Interesting that under the UN Charter the function of the Security Council is to, “Ensure international peace and security.”

CONCLUSIONS: 

This type of limited invasion always holds the potential for Middle East nations to pile on with potential devastating results. The U.S. could lose our longest and most loyal ally in the region.

Without UN action, Iran is on point to perpetuate havoc around the world.

The UN will probably do nothing.

BOTTOM LINE:

There is another path to world peace; no more Ukraine-like invasions.  No more Israelis living in fear every day. No more bullies with nuclear weapons like North Korea and soon-to-be Iran.  But it cannot happen under a Biden Administration; they are incapable.  The Concept of Operations for a world peace plan is contained in a book, FIX THE SYSTEMS, TRANSFORM AMERICA.

Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of two books, Vision to Execution and Fix the Systems, Transform America as well as the author of a blog, WeThePeopleSpeaking.com.

ELECTION, 2024; A POTENTIAL THREAT

In 2016 Hillary said, “the election was stolen.”  In 2020 Trump said, “the election was rigged.”

The 2024 election has the potential to be an existential threat to America.  Mail-in ballots, drop boxes, ballot harvesting and out of date error-ridden voter registration rolls will be in-play and threaten, as a minimum, to further divide the nation and as a worse-case scenario take it into an uncontrollable downward spiral. 

Los Angeles County, the most populous county in the U.S. had a 2022 population of 9,861,224 residents. So far so good, it’s just a big number.  Of those 9.9 million folks, about 4.3 million of them are supposedly registered voters. OK so far, what could possibly go wrong? During the 2022 election cycle L.A. County election officials mailed out about 5.7 million vote-by-mail ballots to those 4.3 million registered voters. This could be taking the old Chicago adage, “vote early, vote often” to a new level.

The states are in charge of their voting rules which is a good news/bad news situation. States’ rights is a good thing.  When taken to an extreme it can be bad, harmful and out of control.  There are two distinct voting processes in play going into the 2024 election cycle:

One, though all states offer some form of voting by mail, nine states, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Nevada, New Jersey, Oregon, Utah, Vermont, Washinton state and Washington, D.C., now mandate that every registered voter be mailed a ballot ahead of an election by default; it’s called all-mail voting.  All of the listed states but Utah are controlled by Democrats.

This all-mail voting system claims to increase voter turnout by expanding voting accessibility, especially among disabled people, rural residents, older people and members of the military.

The second system in play is request-required mail-in ballot systems, traditionally known as absentee voting. It requires eligible voters to initiate the process of receiving a mail-in ballot. Dozens of states allow voters to mail in their ballots without specifying why they are doing so, but several states, mostly in the South, require voters to provide an “excuse” for mailing in their ballots, forcing more people to vote in person at polling places.

All of the above could be OK if, and this is the big IF, the voter registration rolls were up to date (no dead people), correct (actually living at the recorded address) and are in fact eligible to vote (U.S. citizens). 

Fact: across the nation, voter registration rolls need to be correct if mail-in voting is going to be free of potential massive voter fraud.

This data is a few years old but there is every reason to believe it is still a huge problem.

In 2017 the Public Interest Legal Foundation found 17 counties in Illinois that have more registered voters than residents who are eligible to vote which is a violation of the National Voter Registration Act.  Franklin County, Illinois, for example, had an overcount of 190%. There were 21 states with over-registered counties. Michigan had the most with 24,

 In September 2020 just prior to the last presidential election, a Judicial watch Study revealed that 353 U.S. counties in 8 states had 1.8 million more registered voters than eligible voting-age citizens.

An actual case of fraud associated with mail-in ballots and ballot harvesting is well documented for a U.S. Congressional race in North Carolina. The North Carolina State Board of Elections refused to certify the results after evidence of what it called “concerted fraudulent activities related to absentee by-mail ballots.” The fraudulent activities included “collection of absentee request forms, collection of absentee ballots, and falsifying absentee ballot witness certifications.”  Corrupt incentives were built into the scam in that those participating in the activities were compensated based on how many absentee ballots they corrupted.

The Election Board ordered a new special election after determining that the scheme was “enabled by a well-funded and highly organized criminal operation.”

The board further determined the election “was corrupted by fraud, improprieties, and irregularities so pervasive that its results are tainted as the fruit of an operation manifestly unfair to the voters and corrosive to our system of representative government.”

WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT:

Right now, 13 months from the election, we seem to be in a state of expecting the worst and hoping for the best.  Considering the potential downside of contested election results throughout the country, doing nothing is distasteful, ignorant, irresponsible and cowardly.

The first element of solving a problem is to define it. Here is the problem.  The basis of election fraud is the pathetic state of voter registration rolls throughout the country.  While not interfering with states’ rights to define their election processes, the federal government should pass a law right now that mandates two things.  First, as of 1 January, 2024 every voter registration role in every state will become null and void.  Secondly every eligible voter who wishes to vote in 2024 must reregister between 1 January and 5 November, 2024; election day. Simply stated, we desperately need a one-time, 100% reboot of the voter registration system.  

The law will then go on to specify how the voter will go about proving in person that they are in fact, an eligible voter.

BACKGROUND:

In 2005, Congress passed THE REAL ID ACT 2005:

In accordance with that law (finally) on May 7, 2025, U.S. travelers must be REAL ID compliant to board domestic flights in the U.S. 

Secure driver’s licenses and personal ID cards are a vital component of our national security framework. The REAL ID Act enacted the 9/11 Commission’s recommendation that the Federal Government “set standards for the issuance of sources of identification, such as driver’s licenses.” 

Every state is required by this federal law to provide the facilities capable of providing REAL ID drivers licenses or personal ID cards.  The applicable parts of that law are:

TITLE II, THE REAL ID ACT 2005, IMPROVED SECURITY FOR DRIVERS’ LICENSES AND PERSONAL IDENTIFICATION CARDS

SEC. 202. MINIMUM DOCUMENT REQUIREMENTS AND ISSUANCE STANDARDS FOR FEDERAL RECOGNITION.

Features on each driver’s license and identification card issued to a person by the States:

(1) The person’s full legal name.

(2) The person’s date of birth.

(3) The person’s gender.

(4) The person’s driver’s license or identification card number.

(5) A digital photograph of the person.

(6) The person’s address of principle residence.

(7) The person’s signature.

(8) Physical security features designed to prevent tampering, counterfeiting, or duplication of the document for fraudulent purposes.

(9) A common machine-readable technology, with defined minimum data elements.

(10) An expiration date.

As millions of Americans already know, when you appear to get the REAL ID, you must have in your possession proof of all the above information; birth certificate, U.S. passport, social security card, a current bill addressed to you at your legal address, etc.

Here is how the existing REAL ID law can be used for the voter registration reboot. At some point after 1 January 2024, every eligible voter will appear at a voting office in their area or download their REAL ID data onto an online application form that can be mailed to their local election office. The name, address, expiration date and most importantly the number on the driver’s license or personal ID will be entered into the new state voter registration data base. 

It is the number on the ID that will make voter fraud very difficult.  As part of this new voter fraud law, every single ballot, either mail-in or in-person voting will have that number on it. Every single ballot will have a number on it that directly links it to one eligible voter.  Period.

This new law, let’s call it SECURE THE 2024 ELECTION ACT, will also specify that every voting machine in the nation will be updated to reject any ballot that does not contain a voter ID number, that the number corresponds to a particular individual whose name and address is on the ballot and that the number has not been previously used in that election cycle.  

Under this system, part of the on-going process with the voter registration roll is that upon reaching an expiration date, that person will be dropped from the rolls.  Also, each time a license or ID is renewed, that data will be automatically forwarded to the state voter registration to put that individual back on the voter rolls. On a continuous basis, this cleans out the dead voters.

THE PERSON WHO DOES NOT WANT TO GET A REAL ID BUT DOES WANT TO VOTE.

The SECURE THE 2024 ELECTION ACT will provide for in-person election day voter registration (to include early in-person voting dates).  That voter must present the same documentation required for a REAL ID and present it at the voting venue.  The documentation must include a Social Security card and the social security number will become the voter number used on the ballot.

CONCLUSIONS:

What this all boils down to is this question; are you, an eligible voter, at least patriotic enough that you will make the same effort for the right to vote that you would make for eligibility to get on a U.S. airliner?

If this program gets some traction in Congress, stand by to be called a racist by democrats beginning with Biden and Kamala even though by saying it they are implying that minorities are not capable of executing the REAL ID process; which in and of itself is a racist statement.

This is going to be a difficult sell in Congress in that they do not think in terms of doing something quickly or for a longer-range impact.  And also, because they are currently overwhelmed with the fact that there is no FY 2024 budget in place. There are reasons for not having a budget passed on time. It’s called laziness, unaccountability, lack of attention to details, lack of prioritization, ignored deadlines by most committees and generally sloppy, ineffective leadership. In any other organization, leaders acting like this would have been long ago fired.   

Next to amnesty-for-all, open voting is what the democrats want across America. For example, December 2021 in New York City, the Democrat-controlled city council passed a measure known as “Our City, Our Vote.” Noncitizen green card holders and individuals with workers permits who have lived in the city for at least 30 days will be allowed to vote in city elections.  They were describing themselves as a, “model for the nation.”

BOTTOM LINE:

This law, SECURE THE 2024 ELECTION ACT, can/should be an easy, quick fix to offset what could/might end up being an election that completely crumbles one of the most sacred foundational elements of this country; free and honest elections.

The basis for this new law is already on the books, THE REAL ID ACT.  The states are already performing the functions to produce IDs for eligible voters. Tens of millions of Americans already have a Real ID. All that is needed is a requirement to reboot the voter registration rolls during 2024. 

One more time; during the 2022 election cycle L.A. County election officials mailed out about 5.7 million vote-by-mail ballots to 4.3 million registered voters. Wake the hell up America and take off your rose-colored glasses; voter fraud is out there just waiting to be activated.  

I know what many of you are thinking; this might be a good idea but it will never become law.  While you are probably correct, the Republican party needs to be on record and talking to the we-the-people about this problem.  The House of Representatives can and should pass this proposal right now and thereby show the nation what the Democrat party is all about as they argue against it in the Senate.  Or, if by some miracle it did go to Biden for signature, we could watch him put another disgraceful paragraph in his legacy.  A final thought is that the Republicans currently controls 54.86% of all state legislative seats nationally and this dialogue could convince them to pass and implement this program in their states.

Note to subscribers:  If everyone who believes this will be a positive move sends a copy to their Congressperson, perhaps one of them will take the concept and run with it. Thank you.

Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO EXECUTION, a book for leaders, FIX THE SYSTEMS, TRANSFORM AMERICA as well as the author of a blog WeThePeopleSpeaking.com.

HEADLINE, SEPTEMBER 2023: 40% OF BALTIMORE’S HIGH SCHOOLS HAVE ZERO STUDENTS PROFICIENT IN MATH

Results from a 2023 Maryland state math exam reveals that 13, which is 40%, of Baltimore’s High Schools did not have a single math-proficient student. ZERO.

We have heard ad-nauseum about the devastating impact on education during the Covid pandemic.  However, these 2023 results are not a Covid problem; Baltimore has actually improved test scores over the post-pandemic period.  Six years ago, in 2017, Project Baltimore produced a similar report of test scores and found 13 city schools had zero students proficient in math. Many of the schools from 2017 are also on the 2023 list.

Last school year, Baltimore City Schools received $1.6 billion from taxpayers, the most ever. The district also received $799 million in Covid relief funding from the federal government. This is not a funding issue.

BALTIMORE IS NOT ALONE; DATA FROM ACROSS THE NATION:

  • 20% of U.S. students do not graduate high school.
  • Every year, over 1.2 million students drop out of high school in the U.S.; that’s a student every 26 seconds, 7,000 every school day; thereby creating a linkage to a life of crime and/or welfare.
  • About 25% of high school freshmen fail to graduate from high school on time.
  • Almost 2,000 high schools across the U.S. graduate less than 60% of their students. Those “dropout factories” account for over 50% of the students who leave school every year. One in six U.S. students attend a dropout factory.  One in three minority students (32%) attend a dropout factory compared to 8% of white students.
  • Of those graduating high school, over 20% are unable to pass the test to enter the U.S. military because they are functionally illiterate.
  • In the U.S. high school dropouts commit about 75% of the crimes.
  • About 70% of prison inmates do not have a high school diploma.

“PROFICIENCY”, WHAT IS IT?

The National Assessment of Education Progress, NAEP, results provide educators, policymakers, elected officials, and parents with invaluable information regarding how our children are doing in school.  NAEP measures the academic performance of the nation’s students by testing 4th and 8th grade students every 2 years and 12th grade every 4 years.

NAEP reports on student achievement/capability in three categories: Basic, Proficient and Advanced.

  • Students performing at NAEP Basic level have only partial mastery of fundamentals. These students are failing.
  • Students performing at the NAEP Proficient level have demonstrated some competency over challenging subject matter.
  • Students performing at the NAEP Advanced level have shown superior performance.

Most recent NAEP national data on math proficiency.  Baltimore is not alone.  

4th grade, 67% are below Proficiency level and almost 1/3 of them are even below Basic level.

8th grade, 75% are below Proficiency level and more than half are even below Basic level.

12th grade, 76% are below Proficiency level and more than half are even below Basic level.

CONCLUSIONS FROM NATIONAL TEST RESULTS:

Our nation is in serious trouble and the light at the end of the tunnel is unfortunately an on-coming train.  The U.S. is currently getting an F in education results. The high percentages below Proficiency level in 4th grade do not improve through middle and high school. 

SOME THOUGHTS ON A PROBLEM STATEMENT: 

My sense is that there is too much emphasis on End of Grade, EOG, testing. “Let’s wait and see how we do on EOG tests”; “We are hoping for a better result this year from EOG tests.”

The problem with those courses of action is that when we don’t do well on EOG tests, it is already too late to do anything about it.  Proficiency deficiencies just get passed on and, of course, compounded the next year. It is a formula that will guarantee failure on through middle and high school and leads our country to the 7,000 dropouts every school day.  If the system is fixated on EOG results that is a big part of the problem and explains why our education system is on the downward path to a nation of functional illiteracy.

The focus the past two years has been to correct the Covid down-curve.  But, generally speaking we have not sufficiently defined the problem and therefore have no solution going forward.

THE TWO-TIERED PROBLEM:

First tier: The day-to-day education process lets “unproficiency” slip into the system throughout every school year. Those who are in a position to fix it don’t recognize that it is happening or don’t care that it is happening. Or, if they do recognize the daily unproficiency problem, they just do not know what to do about it. Nonproficiency grows, is compounded every year until, at some point, usually in high school, when the student is failing, embarrassed, ridiculed by his/her peers and frequently skipping school they conclude enough is enough; I’m done. The circumstances that led to that drop-out day probably began in 3rd grade and grew like a cancer getting more pronounced every year.

Second tier: The problem is that we do not have a dynamic, in-place, continuous, immediate-action process of 1) identifying that Billy just got behind and 2) getting Billy immediately caught up with his classmates. We can always hope for better EOG test scores but, as we all know, hope is not a process.

THESIS: 

My thesis is that a good teacher can, at any time during the school year, go through the student roster and separate those who “got it”, are up-to-speed and ready to face the next, more complicated building block on the lesson plan from those who did not get it and will have difficulty going forward if not corrected immediately.  

A WAY AHEAD:

If my problem assessment is correct, we need a comprehensive movement and cannot continue to wing it in the individual schools and classrooms. We need a definable campaign.

Campaign planning is a series of organized actions aimed at accomplishing a stated purpose and typically focused on a path toward an identifiable end-state. 

Without a formal, phased campaign, individual schools (in Baltimore) will wonder off in different directions with no continuity.  Some will prosper. Most will flounder. It is analogous to someone having a half million dollars’ worth of materials piled on their lot and the vision is to build a fabulous dream home; the only thing missing is a blueprint. How is that going to turn out? 

Planning is proactive thinking at another level, a journey not a destination, never perfect (think contingencies) and never final. “No plan survives contact with the enemy.” von Moltke.

Simply stated building a campaign takes us through a series of steps in a logical sequence, all of which should be written down in a formal proposal. Let’s call it a Framework for Action, with emphasis on the word, “action.”

A special note before we begin building the Framework.  This problem cannot be solved by the U.S. Department of Education with their 4,400 bureaucrats and $88 billion budget. Even if they understood the problem, they would undoubtedly let a multi-million-dollar contract to a bunch of psychologists and education “experts” who would, in a couple of years, produce a 500-page document that demands more money, more regulations, more bureaucrats and is not actionable. Ditto for State Departments of Education.  This is a problem that needs to be/can be defined and fixed within each of the 13,452 school districts.

THE PLAYERS; 

The leaders in the education organization are easily identifiable because the organization, in many ways, resembles thousands of other organizations in our society.

First there is the Board of Education analogist to corporate boards with one advantageous difference.  Who is on the Board of Directors at General Motors?  I don’t know and neither do you.  But we know our Board of Education members because we-the-people elected them and we can vote them out.

Second, at the strategic leader, level, there is the CEO, aka the Superintendent of schools. He/she should be the first in the chain of command that has daily responsibilities associated with quality teaching and learning and the Product.

Third, at the operational leader level, there are the vice presidents for academics, aka school Principals.

Finally, at the tactical leader level, there are the First-Line-Leaders, aka teachers, at the point of execution.

The education organization has a clean, simple, uncomplicated chain of command that can/should be more effective than it apparently is. 

BUILDING A FRAMEWORK FOR ACTION:

Identify the problem; without it there is no solution which, I believe is where we generally are today across America. After that just answer these simple questions; who, what, when, where, why and how.

VISION is first out of the Framework tool box: Have a written vision of the end state; a sentence, not a paragraph. Why? “If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there.” Be realistic; there is a fine line between vision and hallucination. Vision defines WHERE the organization is going.

STRATEGY is alignment of assets to their greatest advantage. Strategy is the big picture, the long-pole in the tent. Three rules for strategy:

First, have one.

Second, keep it simple. Subordinates need to see it, understand it, buy in and talk about it. it is convenient to have a short-hand description in a word or phrase, e.g., Innovate and change to be all we can be. Be able to explain it in 50 words; an elevator-brief.

Third, if it’s working, don’t change it.There will be zealots for and against most strategies.

The CEO might say: Our strategy is to turn over every single rock, see what crawls out, change a lot of what we currently do, innovate, identify all best practices, key on excellence in teaching and learning. The centerpiece of our culture will be accountability at every leadership level. K-5 will constitute the main attack.

Comment RE “main attack”.  What I concluded in the above discussion on the problem is that if we don’t get “it” right in K-5, there is no recovery in middle and high school.  A friend of mine who is on the local Board of Education is working the “main attack” issue in our district. Translated, main attack means the three traditional levels of K-12 education, elementary, middle and high school should not be considered equals when it comes to priorities, funding, resourcing, etc. If the main attack is not properly resourced and fails, we’re toast?

Development of the strategy is not a 5-minute process.  Perhaps put together several 2–3-person task forces and assign them to look at the existing culture, consistent shortcomings, strengths, vulnerabilities, potential capabilities, internal and external forces, define the art of the possible, discover what the “A” schools are doing different etc. DO NOT build a pie-in-the-sky unworkable, unrealistic strategy and launch a failed campaign which would play directly into the hands of the I-told-you-so naysayers. Strategy is HOW we are going to get to the end state.

MISSION: State the mission in one sentence. There will be a mission statement at each leadership level with increasing levels of detail from top to bottom. Mission is the beginning of the process of communicating, throughout the entire leadership continuum. It is the launch point.  It is on public display. The measures of merit for a good mission statement are clarity (no ambiguous words) and brevity (a sentence, never a paragraph). Mission flows throughout the organization and becomes relevant and actionable at every level from the Board’s mission, to the Superintendent’s mission, to the Principals’ missions and on to the individual teachers’ mission statements. Mission is WHAT we are all going to do.

The Superintendent’s mission is to change the organization, its culture and inculcate enhanced teaching and learning.

A Principal’s mission might read: Ensure that every teacher is teaching to standard from prepared/approved lesson plans and that they use a teach-test, teach-test technique that identifies students who got behind followed by immediate steps to get them back in a state of proficiency.

A teacher’s mission is to teach to standard using best practices, know when a student falls behind, use immediate communications among the parent/teacher/student trifecta to solve the problem and have everyone at least on a proficient level at year’s end.

There are two types of mission statements and both could be applicable to the education organization.  One use of mission is as described in the above paragraph for any campaign or plan. Secondly, many organizations have a single, unwavering, unchanging, overarching mission statement.  For example, “The mission of the U.S. Army is to fight and win the nation’s wars.”  The value of such a statement is that it provides a rock-solid reference point for everything that follows; training doctrine, fighting doctrine, standards, budget, weapons systems, deployability, etc.

One way to put some day-to-day thinking and action into the “main attack” scenario is to tag an overarching mission statement for the elementary schools.  Put it on the front door; have a big banner hanging in the gym and set K-5 apart from middle and high schools.  When considering resourcing, hiring, standards, teaching, testing, dealing with the parent/teacher/student trifecta etc., all of those issues should stand alone just for K-5.  It follows then that there may need to be a revised mission statement for middle and high school.  The nay-sayers will argue that the school “system” is all one K-12 issue.  They are wrong. For example, The mission of our elementary school system, K-5 is to achieve a proficiency level for all students of at least X% before entry into middle school.

INTENT: None of the above is rocket science but the process puts forward the necessary steps leading to Intent, the most powerful tool available to a leader. Intent characteristics:

  • Lets everyone inside their leader’s head.
  • Singular possessive, (My intent is to …….)
  • Public information, (everyone knows it, talks about it, builds their plan of action from it). Every leader at every level should have a published statement of intent. Measures of merit are brevity (four short paragraphs) and clarity (no ambiguity).

Paragraph one of Intent is a simple description of the end-state at every leader level. For example, a principal’s intent: Right now, the proficiency level of the students we are sending to middle school is unacceptably low; X % proficient.  My intent is for us to improve those proficiency results by at least X% every year until we are consistently sending Y% of our elementary graduates to middle school proficient in every discipline. 

Paragraph two: A brief description of the school’s operation. The overall thrust will be to optimize inspired teaching and learning; every day identify students who are not proficient and have a plan to fix it immediately. My intent is that every teacher is empowered to be all they can be every day. Develop a very strong, consistent, useful student-teacher-parent trifecta. Seek out and try out best practices of your profession and discipline. Self-evaluate and continuously ask yourself; could I have done this or that better? Establish your own best practices and institutionalize them. AAR (after-action-review) everything and answer 1) What did I/we do good? 2) What could I/we have done better? 3 How do I/we institutionalize change and improvement? (Good/Better/How AAR every day). Have a mentor and lean on them.

Paragraph three:  Explain why we are doing this, why it is important, why it is essential to our survival. We are doing this now because we are an organization that is failing in our mission which eventually leads to too many student drop-outs or to high school graduates who are actually functionally illiterate.  During World War II, General Eisenhower, commander of all forces in Europe said, “The U.S. soldier will accomplish anything you ask of them as long as you tell them why it is necessary.”

Paragraph four: Keys to success are acceptance of change and innovation. While this is an overall team effort, each of you, individually, must accept that we must change, innovate and be all we are capable of being. Figuratively speaking, change or die.

Intent bottom line:  You hear it, you see it in writing, you see the end state, you participate as part of a team that is bound together in a common cause, you continue to act in the absence of specific daily guidance based on what you understand your leader intends for you to do.

Intent, the most powerful tool available to a leader, answers who, when and why.

A PHASED CAMPAIGN:  For any complex operations plan, it must be broken into logical, identifiable phases.  It keeps everyone focused on first things first.  It keeps some from stumbling ahead without having properly set the stage for future actions. Do three things:

One, give each phase a name; phase 1 is usually Planning. 

Two, set an end date for each phase.

Three, and most importantly, define a set of Centers of Gravity for each phase just before that phase timeline begins.  A Center of Gravity could be a person, place, thing or circumstance that is CRITICAL to success or could cause it to fail.  It is not a long list, perhaps 2 or 3 issues.  Publish them and make it a daily function for everyone to be aware and on the look-out for indicators.

CONCLUSIONS: this Framework for Action outlined above will work and must be written down. Why?  When important leader thoughts and directions are recorded, the author will be especially cognizant of the verbiage; is it correct, will they “get it”, are we performing tasks in the most logical sequence, does it pass the smell test? If the campaign pieces are published it becomes a readily available reference document.

The alternative to writing the vision, strategy, mission, intent, phasing and the first set of Centers of Gravity is that a principal may put all of this critical information out one time verbally during a teacher assembly.   Among those attending will be a few who take copious notes, those who take none, those who are currently burdened with some crisis that has them completely tuned out and perhaps those who hear something early on that they disagree with and just shut down at that point.  Verbal can be very imperfect and can be a failed leader tactic.

CEOs: 

While daily observing senior leaders of large organizations in the military (32 years) and then 10 years working with senior leaders in civilian organizations, I have come to some conclusions about how successful CEOs operate.  First of all, they recognize that they can easily become overwhelmed with the breadth of their responsibilities. The successful ones find the best and brightest directors and delegate the day-today leadership of that element with perhaps a weekly up-date to remain current on the issues.  Then successful CEOs can focus the majority of their time and efforts on the Product.  Every organization has a Product.  As mentioned earlier, the U.S. military’s Product is trained leaders and combat-ready forces. GM’s Product is vehicles. An education organization’s Product is students at proficiency level.

I recently saw an education organization diagram with the Superintendent’s direct reports being the Directors of budget, human resources and communications.  The school Principals were at the bottom of the org diagram filtered away from the CEO by two layers of intermediate bosses.  Obviously, there was little if any daily focus by the CEO on the Product.  That school system is at about 60% proficiency. Loooong ago in my little country one-room K-8 school I learned that 60% is an “F”.

BOTTOM LINE:

Our nation is in an education crisis of major proportions, not getting any better and the only thing our president will say about education is that unions are wonderful and charter schools are not.

I promise you building a Framework for action is not theory; I know it works.  One example: In my post-military 10-year consulting career, one of my customers was a top-ten Fortune 500 Corporation operating in 120 countries. After 3 ½ years into a Framework for Action campaign, with no new products, no additional territory and the same employees, their gross revenue had increase tens of billions of dollars annually.

Using the Framework for Action as a tool box does not require a new law or new regulations or a new budget; it’s free.

Note to subscribers:  If you agree with this proposal, send a copy to the members of your local School Board.  I’m not trying to sell books; I’m trying to sell solutions. If a school system took on this program their leaders might find I advantageous to read VISION TO EXECUTION which amplifies the above Framework for Action tools and introduces additional tools that can be helpful. 

Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO EXECUTION, a book for leaders, FIX THE SYSTEMS, TRANSFORM AMERICA as well as the author of a blog WeThePeopleSpeaking.com

THE U.S. IS UNDER ATTACK

Just for the heck of it let’s say we are under attack by another country or organization and last year we suffered about 208 KIA per day. It would be nice if this was just a hypothetical scenario, but as unbelievable as it may seem, it is happening every day across our once-great land.  208 per day, average.

But what makes the situation even more incredulous is that our Commander in Chief will not talk about it, neither the Secretary of Defense nor the Secretary of State will confront the situation, the Secretary of Home Land Security tells us repeatedly, under oath, that, “our borders are secure” and the mainstream media for the most part is ambivalent about the whole subject. 

We are under attack; the aggressor state is China, their ammunition is fentanyl, the non-state proxy warriors are the Latin American Cartels and the Cartel host nation is our supposed-to-be-friend Mexico and their leader, President Obrador, could care less, saying “U.S. fentanyl deaths are due to lack of love, of brotherhood, of hugs”.  23 June, 2023 Mexican President Obrador said during a press conference, “We do not produce fentanyl.” 

KIAs by comparison: In all the years of daily combat with the enemy there are 58,000 KIA names on the Vietnam Memorial in Washington D.C. while just last year, 2022, we suffered 75,900 KIA on U.S. soil in the fentanyl war.

And the 208 KIA per day are just from fentanyl; the overall opioid numbers from 2022 were 110,236 deaths, 302 per day.

President Biden tells us,  “White supremacists are the most lethal threat to America.” No president in our history has knowingly and deliberately threatened our national security to this degree. Vietnam protest demonstrations were commonplace from 1965-1973.  Where are the protesters today?  Where is the media outrage demanding a counter attack?

THE PROBLEM: The beginning of finding a solution is to define the problem.  But it is not just about fentanyl, it is a two-part problem.

FIRST, THE FENTANYL PROBLEM:

Here is a snapshot of how China and the Cartels get its ammunition (fentanyl) to the soldiers on the ground across America.  Data taken from an article in the NEW YORK POST, February 18, 2023 by Michael Kaplan.

$200 per kilogram (in round numbers, two kilograms equals about one pound):

Chinese chemists produce powdered chemical “precursors” that are fentanyl’s building blocks. There is so much corruption at the ports that a couple hundred bucks will make authorities look the other way as chemicals are unloaded in Mexican ports.

$3000-$5000 per kilogram:

 “Laboratory” is a glorified word for Mexican fentanyl production facilities. Much of the fentanyl is brewed by mom-and pop operations outdoors in pots over open flames where the “cook” tries to stay up-wind in order to live through the process The drugs get diluted, mixed with other chemicals and the final product is either powder or fentanyl pressed into pills that resemble pharmaceuticals or candy.

$20,000 per kilogram:

Drug dealers routinely stash the fentanyl in trucks, usually mixed in with other shipping products. With 200,000 vehicles crossing the Mexico/US border each day, it’s not difficult for the deadly cargo to slip through.

$35,000 per kilogram:

 Most of the product is delivered to drop-off hubs near large cities.

$300,000 per kilogram:

Inside apartments, houses, garages, wherever it is convenient, fentanyl is cut with adulterants and sealed in glassine (smooth and glossy paper that is air, water and grease resistant) envelopes that contain single-sized doses.  A crew of 12 can package 100,000 glassines in 24 hours. On the street a glassine packet becomes a $10 sale.  One glassine usually contains less than two milligrams of fentanyl. Keep in mind that there are about 28 grams in an ounce so that means there are about 28,000 milligrams in one ounce. According to the DEA, two milligrams, just 2mg, of fentanyl constitute a lethal dose. By comparison, one small Bayer baby aspirin weighs in at 81 mg.

$1 million per kilogram ($2million per pound):

Wholesalers’ pick-up glassine-enveloped goods from the drug mills and then meet up with their street dealers. Street dealers make approximately $2 for each $10 bag of fentanyl that they sell to their customers.

 While the Biden administration will occasionally brag about seizing a big shipment of fentanyl at the border, the Border Patrol and DEA will tell you that whatever the number of pounds, it is just a drop in the bucket and considered a small cost-of-doing-business to the Cartels.

THE LARGER PROBLEM, CARTEL ORGANIZATIONS COMING SOON TO YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD:                    

Cartels are not just about drug trafficking. Their expertise also includes bribery, kidnapping, extortion, oil pipeline tapping, sex trafficking, general human trafficking (as in millions of illegal aliens crossing the border), money laundering, gun running, contract killing, robbery and general lawlessness.

BACKGROUND ON THE CARTELS:

The primary actors are the Sinaloa Cartel, for many years the most dominant drug trafficking organization in Mexico. Cartel Jalisco is the emerging power. Additionally in the mix is the Los Zetas Cartel, Gulf Cartel and Juarez Cartel. All are engaged in holding their current territory and/or expanding their territory thus creating one of the most violent areas in the world today with an enormous impact on the Mexican economy and society as a whole.

Additionally, the Sinaloa and Jalisco Cartels have each split into 35-40 subordinate cells each with a chain of command similar to paramilitary organizations.  

Furthermore, over the past few years there have been about 400 new gangs and splinter groups formed to challenge the Cartels; all of which has overwhelmed Mexican law enforcement.

The Cartels are like a cancer on society; you may not know you have it until it’s too late.  The Cartels thrive in a dysfunctional society and further turn it into an unlivable catastrophe.

In 2006 the Mexican President Felipe Calderon declared a “war on drugs.”  Since then, more than 60,000 people have disappeared in Mexico. The Cartels won that war. They operate with broad impunity in Mexico, terrorizing local populations with their brutal tactics.

How do the Cartel’s operate in Mexico on a day-to-day basis with such impunity?  The answer is simple, they gain control over leaders and influential people. Elected leaders, police leaders, military leaders, media leaders at the local, state and national levels are all vulnerable to Cartel tactics.  It’s not a complex formula, they simply kill the opposition or approach them and suggest an alternative they cannot refuse.  That is, the leaders become part of the problem by accepting bribes to look the other way or the Cartel operatives threaten the lives of the leaders’ family members.  Simple but effective. 

When there are no boundaries to the level of violence the Cartel enforcers will employ, there daily operations are simple.  A phone call or visit from someone you don’t know or may never see again who simply provides an ultimatum; you will not interfere in our operation or we will kill you and or your family. 

With this terrorist tactic in place, it is impossible to know which side of the fence any leader is operating from. Case in point: A former Mexican presidential cabinet member, Garcia Luna, was convicted February 2023 in the U.S. for taking bribes to protect the violent drug Cartels. He has been sentenced to 20 years in prison.  Note he was convicted in the U.S., not in Mexico.

The Mexican media is generally mute on Cartel terrorism because Mexico is one of the most dangerous countries in the world for journalists. You publish a contrary article and your body may be discovered with your hands cut off.  Message sent; message received.

Political candidates who campaign on a promise to clean out the Cartels will likely be “encouraged” by the Cartels to drop out or change his or her intent.

The questions facing the general Mexican public on a daily basis are who can I trust? Is my best friend actually taking Cartel bribes?  Will the police help me if I am threatened? Are my local, state and national representatives in bed with the Cartels? Will the Cartels eventually take over my business?  What will I do if my family is threatened? Mexico is a country living in fear with no solution in sight.

CARTEL EXPANSION:

The United States of America is right now a target rich environment, we are more than just vulnerable, we are likely next on the Cartel’s expansion list.  Why?  Four reasons:

  • One, the Cartels’ foot soldiers are already in place throughout the U.S., the Cartels just have to get them organized. The FBI reports there are about 33,000 violent street gangs, motorcycle gangs, and prison gangs criminally active in the U.S. today with about 1.4 million members.  Additionally, the number of street gang members is increasing in about half of FBI jurisdictions. Many gangs are sophisticated and well organized; all use violence to control neighborhoods and boost their illegal money-making activities, which include robbery, drug and gun trafficking, prostitution and human trafficking. The gangs represent an in-place nation-wide resource of foot soldiers for drug distribution, street sales, crime, general lawlessness and violence.
  • Two, general lawlessness is becoming pervasive throughout our nation. Under current leadership at the local, state and national levels, police forces, prosecutors and judges appear helpless or unwilling to solve the lawless problem.
  • Three, why should the Cartels delay when the U.S. Commander in Chief is, by policy, leaving the southern border open.
  • Four, this is where the money is.

The Drug Enforcement Agency’s 2023 assessment is that Mexican Cartels already have operations in at least 60 American cities.

And what are we doing about it? With this administration, absolutely nothing.

HOW CAN WE MOVE TOWARDS A SOLUTION:

  • First, officially classify the Cartels as International Terrorist Organizations.

Republican attorneys general from 21 states have called on President Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken to declare Mexican drug Cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations. They argue that the Cartels pose a threat to U.S. national security beyond their drug-related activities.

Opponents say there are already sufficient laws on the books to deal with the Cartels. Notwithstanding that objection, there are also compelling reasons to do so.  

The terrorist label will have some appeal not because it expands legal authority, but because it sends a loud message. People view terrorism as more heinous than ordinary crime. Calling it drug trafficking, kidnapping, and murder by themselves doesn’t adequately reflect the national outrage that we should be feeling.

The terrorist label elevates the issue, suggesting that more must be done to prevent the Cartels current actions against the U.S. and furthermore to send the message not to attempt to expand operations on our soil.

Other countries will likely get behind the U.S. position thereby reenforcing consensus at an international level on counterterrorism. DEA says, “The Sinaloa Cartel is operating in 45 countries around the world”.

  • Second, begin this process of taking down the Cartels with a secret meeting between the presidents of the U.S. and Mexico (Biden and Obrador are up for reelection in 2024) along with their Secretaries of Defense and State.  No one else in the room.  No press release.

The point of the meeting is for our next president to assert to his Mexican counterpart that his country is in serious trouble, his government has lost control of large sections of territory, it is getting worse, it is negatively impacting the U.S. and we have no intentions of having a narco-terrorists nation on our southern border. We are not asking for permission but very much want the Mexican president’s blessing and cooperation. It will be a win for both countries. Neighbors helping neighbors.  The status quo is unacceptable

Mexican President Obrador is currently part of the problem. Elected in 2018, he has undertaken a non-confrontational security strategy which he has referred to as “hugs not guns.”  On 9 March 2023, he called any plan for U.S. military action against the Cartels, “irresponsible.” On 13 March he stated that “Mexico is safer than the United States; there is no problem traveling safely in Mexico.”  By the way, Mexico’s nationwide homicide rate is 28 per 100,000 inhabitants while the U.S. is one quarter as high.

  • Third, labeling the Cartels as terrorists also automatically opens the door to discussions of use of U.S. military forces in Mexico. There needs to be a precursor to begin the dialogue about use of military in Mexico. If we just dump the military force idea on the public the mental picture for many will be that of the 82nd Airborne Division jumping into areas of Mexico and taking control. Or a mental picture of tanks from the 1st Armored Division (currently stationed outside El Paso Texas) rolling across the Rio Grande River headed for points south.  We do not need that kind of hysteria going public and, in all probability, loudly opposed by the left media. 

Last spring, Senator Lindsey Graham said, “We are going to unleash “the fury and the might of the United States. It’s time now to get serious and use all the tools in our toolbox, not just in the prosecution way, not just in the law enforcement lane, but in the military lane as well.”

We may need to be a little more subtle than Senator Graham as we approach the subject of military action in Mexico; remember Mexico is a vital trade partner. In 2022 trade between the two countries totaled more than three-quarters of a trillion dollars and nearly 5 million U.S. jobs depend on that trade.

  • Fourth, our president needs to have a serious talk with China’s leader. It has been reported that in 2019 China stopped shipping fentanyl to the United States, and instead began shipping separate chemicals.  If China wanted to stop their chemical companies from exporting, they could. Our president needs to pressure him to do so.  Obviously, Biden is not up to this task.

AUTHORITY TO USE THE U.S. MILITARY IN MEXICO:

Constitutional War Powers, Article II, Section 2 grants the President the power to direct the military after a declaration of war by Congress.

Presidential Policy Guidance, PPG, on Procedures for Approving Direct Action Against Terrorist Targets Located Outside the United States and Areas of Active Hostilities: This was put into place under the Obama administration, the PPG established standard operating procedures for circumstances when the U.S. takes direct action against terrorist targets outside of the US and outside of areas of active hostilities.

Additionally, Article 51 of the United Nations Charter specifies that, “Nothing in this Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs.”  The U.S. interpretation of the Charter recognizes three circumstances under which the use of force is permitted: 1) the use of force authorized by the UN Security Council under Chapter VII of the Charter; 2) the use of force in self-defense, including against imminent attacks; and 3) the use of force in an otherwise lawful manner with the consent of the territorial state.

Some examples of the U.S. engaging terrorists in foreign nations in the past:

Somalia. Operations against al-Shabaab terrorists with the consent of the government of Somalia in furtherance of U.S. national self-defense.

Libya. Operations against Daesh were conducted 2015-2019 with the consent of the Government of National Accord in furtherance of U.S. national self-defense.

Yemen. Operations against al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula have been conducted since 2015.

Given the above, one could argue that the Cartels have become a clear and present danger to the United States; that Congress has acknowledged inherent executive power in accordance with the Joint Resolution passed by Congress on September 14, 2001 which states the President may deploy military force preemptively against terrorist organizations in the states that harbor or support them.

CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS FOR THE USE OF OUR MILITARY IN MEXICO:

The intent is to begin operations with a Mexico-wide shock-and-awe attack on headquarters, production facilities, collection/distribution points and supply chains to immediately put the Cartels on their heels and in a defensive mode. Then increase the operational tempo to the maximum extent.

Trust no one.  Too many Mexican politicians, law enforcement and military at all levels are on the Cartels’ payroll, accepting bribes and/or living under threat of violence for themselves and their families. 

Every U.S. intelligence gathering/reporting element will be temporarily focused on Mexico. Humint, human intelligence, is the center of gravity.  The locals know the Cartel operatives in their area and where they live.  They know where the mom-and-pop fentanyl production facilities are located. They know the drivers, the pick-up points, the routes to the border. etc. An intel tip in the afternoon becomes an operation that night.

The objective is to gain the local trust.  After a few weeks of operations, a conversation between a couple locals might go like this:  Hey, have you seen Jose (the local Cartel leader) lately?  No, he just seemed to have disappeared and now his replacement is also missing.  Wonder if it has anything to do with those gringo military guys around here at night?  Hmm, they might really be doing some good for us. 

Conduct Mexico-wide operations without a significant visible military foot-print inside Mexico. The intent is NOT to use large forces to take control of geographic areas, to have someone sitting in the mayor’s office, to be setting up road blocks, patrolling roads, to be visible.   The force will consist mostly of Special Operations elements; Army Rangers, Army Special Forces, Navy Seals, Marine Corps Forced Recon and Delta Force.  Night ops will be the norm. The idea is not for the community to see these forces but to see and feel the results of our military’s efforts. Information will begin to leak out then spread across the nation that the entire senior leadership of a particular Cartel has “disappeared.”  Across the country the local fentanyl production facilities will go up in smoke night after night. 

At some point in time after the U.S. effort has shown success and has gained the trust and respect of the Mexican leaders and the public, the U.S. forces can begin to integrate local police and military forces into their daily operations moving towards the Cartels’ defeat and a handoff to the Mexican government to sustain the peace.

As a high priority, port security to intercept shipments from China will be beefed up and the port Cartel operators will be taken out.

As the Mexican operations wreak havoc on fentanyl production and distribution, drug inventories, transport and distribution will be in disarray. The DEA, FBI, law enforcement, prosecutors and judges across the country must commit to the arrest and prosecution of everyone in the drug operation chain inside the U.S. and to putting the criminals in jail. Thousands of them.

What the Mexican president will see and hear is that Cartel leaders are missing, their chains of command are being killed and captured, incoming raw chemical supplies and outgoing fentanyl products are not on schedule and production facilities are disappearing. This will allow Mexican military and law enforcement to go on the offensive and regain control of territory and generally reduce the violence.  

Drones of every size and capability will fill the sky; surveillance drones with real-time downlinks to Special Operations forces on the ground; drones armed with Hellfire missiles in the air and on station for immediate use by ground forces against high-value targets and targets of opportunity.

While taking out the Cartels, the U.S. must completely rethink its operations at the 300-plus ports of entry. Over 90% of all the hard drugs confiscated is accomplished at the ports of entry.

CONCLUSIONS:

The U.S. is vulnerable and completely exposed to an all-out covert assault by the Cartels. Doing nothing is not a feasible alternative; the stakes are too high.

The Biden administration is powerless to initiate any actions against the Cartels because of the in-place Biden policy of open borders. President Biden continues to completely ignore his number one priority, the safety and security of all Americans. Therefore, this concept of operations will have to be an action for the 2024 president-elect.  This the becomes an important campaign issue for the Republican candidates.

BOTTOM LINE:

Without taking positive action against the Cartels, We-the-People run the risk of living in fear of violence from the Cartel operatives every day. Do we want to wake up every morning wondering if our neighbor is part of the Cartel organization, wondering if we can count on the police in time of need, worrying that something I recently said about Cartel violence will result in harm to me or my family, worrying that the Cartels will demand a weekly or monthly “tax” on my business, worrying that my journalist son will become a Cartel target, etc. etc. etc.  

If this is not the environment we want to live in, we better wake the hell up America, grab the preverbal bull by the horns, not let this become a political issue and encourage the media to look in the mirror and again become the honest broker for America. We must take action. 

This impending crisis and need for immediate counter action highlights the fact that the two actionable leaders, Presidents Biden and Obrador, are unwilling to accept that there is a pending crisis, are incapable of leading this initiative and are abrogating their most basic leadership requirement; the safety and security of their citizens.

Knock on the door, I need for you to cease all actions against the Cartels or your life and the lives of your family are at risk.  Have a nice day.

Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of two books, Vision to Execution and Fix the Systems, Transform America as well as the author of a blog, WeThePeopleSpeaking.com.