One view of the warring efforts by Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Houthis in Yemen is that they are independent actions and that Israel should seek cease fires, hostage release and peace negotiations with each of them. That kind of thinking fails to consider the definition of the overall problem in the Middle East.
FACTS BEARING ON THE PROBLEM:
Iran has the 3rd largest world reserves of oil and the 2nd largest reserves of gas.
The Iranians have mastered the art of sanctions circumvention and thereby are currently giving their economy a $35 billion-a-year boost.
Since 1984 Iran has been designated “the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism.” For four decades the Iranian leaders have consistently articulated their twofold objectives; “destruction of Israel and “death to America”.
The Trump administration renewed UN sanctions on Iran and enforced them. Iran’s foreign currency reserves fell from $128 billion in 2015 to $15 billion in 2019.
During the Trump administration, Iran’s capabilities and options were reduced and the U.S. was gaining ground in Middle East countries’ acceptance of Israel’s right to exist and prosper as a friendly neighbor. For the Biden administration it has been three plus years of appeasement. Biden has rewarded the Ayatollah to the tune of about $100 billion; that is, massive revenue from the non-enforcement of U.S. oil sanctions over three years, a $6 billion ransom payment and a $10 billion sanctions waiver.
Tehran has used its so-called “proxy army” of more than a dozen militias and terror groups across the Middle East with outposts around the world to help foment instability, carry out attacks, and expand the scope of the Islamic Revolution.
Iran has contributed hundreds of millions of dollars towards training and equipping Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi terrorist organizations with thousands of rockets, missiles, drones and other warfighting equipment.
The Houthi have conducted hundreds of attacks against regional targets in Saudi Arabia and are now endangering world shipping in the Red Sea. When Trump took office, he put the Houthi organization on the world terrorist list. Biden, immediately took them off the terrorist list for no reason other than to undo a Trump initiative.
CONCLUSIONS FROM THE ABOVE:
While war fighting in the Middle East appears to be separate wars they are not. What is going on right now in the Middle East is Iran’s promised destruction of Isreal and creation of a new Iran-controlled Middle east.
Placing responsibility for negotiations on Netanyahu is absolutely the wrong approach and will not end well.
Let’s be honest about what Homas, Hezbollah and Houthi are; they are Iran trained, equipped, financed and led forward-deployed forces. Iran calls all the shots.
We and the remainder of the world have to take “negotiations” directly to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The U.S. must lead this effort because the United Nations is helpless and cannot lead anyone towards a productive end of anything.
A WAY FORWARD
Begin by getting President Biden on the phone with all of the other 30 NATO country’s leaders. Ask for their naval forces to converge on the Persian Gulf with U.S. carrier battle groups providing total control of the air. Then call on our allies in the Pacific, Indian Ocean, Latin America and Africa to also participate in the Persian Gulf. That is, nothing going in to Iran and nothing coming out without Coalition approval; a 100% embargo.
Three years ago, Iran opened its first oil terminal in the Gulf of Oman, a move that allows it to avoid using the narrow Strait of Hormuz shipping route that is vulnerable to being shut down. Therefore, expand the embargo into the Gulf of Oman.
THE OBJECTIVES OF THE MIDDLE EAST EMBARGO COALITION ARE TO:
Get this multi-nation impenetrable embargo in place within two to three weeks.
Immediately convince Iran’s leaders that the embargo will last until all terrorist aggression has ceased throughout the Middle East.
The embargo will shut down oil and gas exports and thereby shut down Iran’s financial support to world terrorist organizations.
The embargo will shut down Iran’s import of all nations’ supplies of hardware and software that support their large and expanding weapons manufacturing and export capabilities.
As of January 2024, Tehran has exported drones and/or drone technology to at least five countries on four continents as well as to at least seven of their force projection terrorist organizations and militias in the Middle East.
Drones pose a continuing threat to Middle East security because of their low cost, widespread availability, and potential deniability, since their point of origin can be disguised.
Iran’s missile proliferation efforts have enormous destabilizing potential for the region. Iran has about 20 different ballistic missile models as well as cruise missiles with delivery ranges up to 2,000 kilometers. Nine different Iranian missile models can reach Israel.
BOTTOM LINE:
For four decades Iran has been allowed to build a force projection capability consisting of Iran-trained, equipped and led terrorist organizations operating outside Iran’s borders. Take away Iran’s ability to support those forces and they will no longer be a significant conventional threat to Middle East stability.
Simply stated, we need to stop thinking about 12 Iran-supported terrorist organizations as independent operators and begin referring to them as forward-deployed elements of the greater Iran military establishment.
Forward deploying forces is not a new concept. For example, the U.S. has had forward air and land forces on European soil continuously since WW II and in South Korea since the armistice was signed in 1952.
IRAN’S SUPREME LEADER AYATOLLAH ALI KHOMENEI:
He is the most powerful figure in Iran; the country’s Supreme Leader since 1989. He is head of state and commander-in-chief. He has authority over the national police and the “morality police.” The Ayatollah also controls the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps which is in charge of internal security, and its volunteer wing, the Basiji Resistance Force which has repeatedly quelled internal dissent. When the Iranian people begin to rise up against their leaders, the world should support them.
Upon implementation of the Middle East Embargo Coalition, send the following message, signed by the leaders of all participating nations, to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Supreme Leader, naval and air forces of the world are enroute to establish and impenetrable shipping embargo in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Ground forces will not invade your nation if you adhere to the following conditions.
CONDITION ONE FOR ESCALATION:
The coalition is taking the same position of that practiced by NATO nations over the past eight decades. That is, Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty states: “The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them . . . shall be considered an attack against them all.”
The point being, the Coalition is hereby advising you that if there are any counter attacks, including cyber, conventional military, manned air, drones of any kind, missiles, rockets or nuclear, against any Middle East Embargo Coalition member from this moment forward by your forces in Iran or any of the terrorist or militias forward deployed that you support in any way, will result in an immediate escalated response from the Middle East Embargo Coalition nations.
The response will be to immediately transition from an air and naval operation to an all-out air-ground operation. The Ground operation’s intent will be to accomplish the following:
All military forces and every associated facility and military item will be dissolved and/or destroyed.
Military forces resisting the Coalition ground force will become casualties or captured. POWs will be incarcerated.
Any military leader of a company-level sized force or larger may surrender in-mass if every person in the unit comes forward with their uniforms and every piece of equipment associated with their military duties. The equipment will be destroyed and the personnel released to go home.
Any individual military member may, of their own choosing, appear at a designated site with uniforms and equipment, surrender his/her allegiance to your military and be released to go home.
Within hours or days, you will have no military force or military equipment.
Your government will cease to exist.
The coalition will provide all support necessary for a new government of-the-people and by-the-people to be selected and seated.
The general nature of the Iranian society will include equal opportunities for all men and women alike in education, property ownership, general rights and privileges, professional careers in law, medicine, teaching, government, etc.
THE SECOND CONDITION that will cause the Coalition to escalate to ground operations described above has to do with your intent to become a nuclear power. If it is determined that you have completed development of a nuclear weapon or that you have purchased or bartered for and have on hand all the necessary elements to produce a nuclear weapon within days or if you have purchased a completed nuclear weapon, the Coalition ground forces will engage and take down that entire nuclear capability and destroy every associated facility you have hidden underground or inside mountains.
At this point, Ayatollah, you are possibly concluding that this Coalition is likely to be an impossible undertaking. We are telling you a coalition effort is certainly within the art of the possible. You will recall in 1990 Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi forces attacked, defeated and occupied Kuwait. Many believed it was a stepping-stone move towards the Saudi Arabian oil fields. In January 1991 a 39-nation coalition attacked and defeated Saddam Hussien’s vaunted “Mother of All Armies” in just six weeks of air and ground operations. Please pay attention to these numbers which tell a powerful story.
Coalition: 39 countries, of which 28 contributed combat forces.
Force size: Approximately 670,000 troops from 28 countries, 425,000 of which were from the United States.
Coalition air component size: 2,250 combat aircraft, 1,800 of which were American.
Coalition airlift: 509,129 passengers and 594,730 tons of cargo carried.
Coalition sorties flown: 100,000+.
Aerial refueling: 15,434 sorties and dispensed 110.2 million gallons of fuel.
Number of dumb bombs dropped: 210,000.
Number of smart bombs dropped: 9,342.
30mm depleted uranium rounds fired by A-10 manned aircraft (tank-killers): 782,514.
Duration of air campaign before ground invasion: 39 days.
Iraqi tanks lost during the war: 3,700 out of 4,280 in inventory.
Number of U.S. Carrier Battle Groups on station: 6.
Coalition POWs taken during the war: 26.
Iraqi POWs taken during the war: 70,000+.
U.S. combat related deaths: 147
Iraqi military deaths: 100,000+.
Ground war duration: 100 hours.
The U.S. has done it once and we can do it again. That, Supreme Leader, is a glimpse into your future if you so choose. It is up to you. The message to you articulated in this memo is not a “threat”, it Is a “promise”. From this day forward, your relationship with your forward deployed terrorist organizations and various militia’s must not include offensive military actions or training them for military actions or financing them to further their offensive actions or providing them with military equipment to carry out military actions or assisting them in planning for military actions. Cease being a sponsor of world-wide terrorism, cease being a destabilizing force throughout the Middle East.
You, Supreme Leader, must understand that, from this moment forward, one more Hamas rocket into Israel or one more missile by Hizballah into Israel or one more drone from Houthis into the Red Sea shipping lanes or into Saudi oil production areas or one more attack on U.S. anti-terrorist forces throughout the Middle East, you will be personally responsible for initiation of Coalition ground-force operations inside Iran and the mayhem resulting from it. We are not doing this to the great Iranian people, we are doing it for them.
You may import food, medicine, medical equipment for humanitarian purposes after the supplies have been inspected by Coalition force members.
We, the leaders of the following listed Coalition nations, hereby pledge our willingness and equipment to fulfilling the Middle East Embargo Coalition commitment.
In alphabetical order: (for example)
Australia, Brazil, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Finland, Germany, India, Israil, Italy, Japan, Jordan, Kenya, Mexico, Morocco, Netherlands, Norway, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, United Arab Emirates, United States of America, United Kingdom.
End of the memorandum to Iran’s Supreme Leader. Copy furnished to the world.
Note to President Biden:
President Biden, you and VP Harris are in fact complicit (“association or participation in a wrongful act”) in the on-going wars in the Middle East. Knowing that Iran is the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism, knowing that Iran has been and continues to finance, arm and encourage thousands of rocket and missile attacks against Israeli civilian targets, and knowing that Iran’s Supreme Leader has for decades publicly declared his objective to destroy Israel; in spite of all that knowledge you have orchestrated a policy of appeasement towards Iran for the past 3 ½ years. By lifting sanctions, you have allowed Iran to develop the financial strength to train, arm and encourage Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi to put the entire Middle East on a path towards WW III.
And in the first four months of the Israeli/Hamas war, Iran-backed terrorist groups and militias attacked U.S. and allied forces stationed in the Middle East over 150 times, killing three and wounded dozens without a U.S. response from our Commander in Chief, you.
That, Mr. President is your legacy.
A WAY AHEAD:
Neither Biden nor Harris have demonstrated the leadership skills or credibility to initiate the Middle East Embargo Coalition force described above. This then is a recommendation that, if elected, President Trump do the above beginning on 20 January, 2025.
Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO EXECUTION, a book for leaders, FIX THE SYSTEMS, TRANSFORM AMERICA as well as the author of a blog WeThePeopleSpeaking.com