THE REAL STORY
Former President Biden tried to make us believe, “White supremacists are the most lethal threat to America.” That was just another diversional lie to the American people while Cartel drug kings were killing, on average, 294 mostly young Americans EVERY DAY in 2023 with drugs crossing the open southern border.
Fentanyl is the nation’s greatest and most urgent drug threat. Two milligrams (mg) of fentanyl are considered a potentially fatal dose. In 2023 the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) seized 29,048 pounds of fentanyl. Let’s do the math.
There are 453,592 milligrams in one pound. Two, just 2, milligrams are considered a potentially lethal dose. That’s 227,000 lethal doses in EACH of the 29,048 pounds seized. The unknown number is how many thousands of pounds were not seized.
Add to those horrific numbers the fact that in 2023 DEA also seized 79 million fentanyl pills and each pill tested in DEA laboratories averaged 2.4 mg of fentanyl, a potentially lethal dose.
The rest of the world also has a fentanyl problem but the Council on Foreign Relation reported that the U.S. had more fentanyl deaths in 2021 than the remainder of the world combined.
According to the DEA Administrator, Anne Milgram, the 2024 National Drug Threat Assessment tells us that “The shift from plant-based drugs, like heroin and cocaine, to synthetic, chemical-based drugs, like fentanyl and methamphetamine, has resulted in the most dangerous and deadly drug crisis the United States has ever faced.”
In four years, did you ever hear Biden discuss the dangers of Cartel exported drugs into the United States? Neither did I.
CARTEL BACKGROUND:
Mexican Cartels are a narco-terrorist organizations operating inside the U.S. and they are gaining ground every day.
The primary actors are the Sinaloa Cartel, for many years the most dominant drug trafficking organization in Mexico. Cartel Jalisco is the emerging power; engaged in drug trafficking, kidnapping, extortion, oil pipeline tapping and general criminal activity.
Additionally in the mix are the Los Zetas Cartel, Gulf Cartel and Juarez Cartel. All are engaged in holding their current territory and/or expanding their territory thus creating one of the most violent areas in the world today with an enormous impact on the Mexican economy and society as a whole.
A footnote to all of this is that fentanyl has changed everything. It is so profitable and can be moved in such small quantities thereby making the Cartels ever more empowered and enriched.
On 20 January after being sworn in as president, Trump named Tren de Aragua in Venezuela, MS-13 in El Salvador and six Mexican Carels as Foreign Terrorists Organizations.
By comparison, ISIS is a terrorist organization that took up lodging in Syria and Iraq and created a separate state from 2014 through 2017. The U.S. was instrumental in eliminating ISIS leaders and collapsing their caliphate. Could we, should we do the same to the Mexican terrorists Cartels?
RECENT U.S. AND MEXICAN LEADERSHIP
President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, in office from 2018 to 2024 executed a non-confrontational security strategy against some of the most violent organizations in the world. During his morning briefing on 28 February, 2023, he referred to his strategy as “hugs not guns. Here we do not produce fentanyl, and we do not have consumption of fentanyl.”
President Biden’s response to the narco-terrorists was, “the border is secure.” Let’s call it the head-in-the-sand security strategy. Both leaders were pathetic, disappointing, an insult to our intelligence and clearly in violation of their oaths of office.
On 7 March, 2023 Senator Lindsey Graham said he was prepared to introduce a bill in Congress to set the stage for the U.S. to use military force in Mexico. Two days later Lopez Obrador called any plan for U.S. military action against the Cartels, “irresponsible.”
On 13 March Lopez Obrador additionally commented, “Mexico is safer than the United States; there is no problem traveling safely in Mexico.” By the way, Mexico’s nationwide homicide rate at the time was 28 per 100,000 inhabitants while the U.S. was about one fourth that number.
The Biden administration never missed an opportunity to show off a confiscated shipment of drugs from Mexico. One event included more than 4.5 million fentanyl pills, 140 pounds of fentanyl powder, 3,000 pounds of methamphetamine and 135 kilograms of cocaine totaling a street value of roughly $13 million. That’s the good news. But the take-away from this comes from Anthony Coulson, a retired DEA special agent, who pointed out that. “A $13 million loss won’t stop the Sinaloa Cartel, first because it’s a drop in the bucket, and second, because this is to be expected. An insignificant loss such as this is just a normal part of their operation.”
What the Biden Administration did not do was speculate on the estimated quantity of drugs that actually got released illegally into the U.S.
CARTELS, HOW THEY OPERATE
The Cartels are violent organizations engaged almost continuously in turf battles with rival Cartels. Additionally, Cartels are known to use a portion of their vast profits to pay off judges, police, military and politicians. Should the individuals reject the bribe their families will likely be at risk of torture, kidnapping or worse.
U.S. gangs have an important role in Cartel operations. In 2024 the FBI reported there are at least 33,000 violent street gangs, motorcycle gangs, and prison gangs criminally active in the U.S. with about 1.4 million members. Many gangs are sophisticated and well organized; all use violence to control neighborhoods and boost their illegal money-making activities, which include robbery, drug and gun trafficking, prostitution and human trafficking.
The relationship between U.S. gangs and the Cartels is that the gangs represent an in-place nation-wide resource of foot soldiers for drug distribution and street sales.
Cartels excel at getting drugs over the border; then, for the most part, they cede operations in the U.S. to local or regional groups. The Drug Enforcement Agency’s 2024 Drug Threat Assessment reports that Mexican Cartels have operations in all 50 states.
Most of the illicit drugs entering the U.S. that are seized by authorities are discovered at the 300-plus official ports of entry. More than 90% of the Meth, fentanyl and heroin seized is at ports of entry.
THE FENTANYL TRIP
Fentanyl, which often gets mixed with heroin or cocaine is 50 times stronger than heroin and 100 times more powerful than morphine. It’s also cheaper to produce than either of those drugs.
Here’s how fentanyl gets from China to America’s streets; data taken from an article in the NEW YORK POST, February 18, 2023 by Michael Kaplan.
- STEP 1: China to the west coast of Mexico.
Chinese chemists produce powdered chemicals known as “precursors” that are fentanyl’s building blocks. It is not unusual for the precursors to be packages looking like dog food.
Approximate value of the precursor, $200 per kilogram. One kilogram is 2.2 pounds. It is interesting to watch the price grow as the journey continues so they will be in bold type.
- STEP 2: Mexico.
There is so much corruption at the ports that a couple hundred bucks will make authorities look the other way as chemicals are unloaded from China.
“Laboratory” is a glorified word for the Mexican fentanyl production facilities. Much of the fentanyl is brewed outdoors in pots over open flames where the “cook” tries to stay up-wind in order to live through the process The drugs get diluted, mixed with other chemicals and the final product is either powder or fentanyl pressed into pills that resemble pharmaceuticals or candy.
Approximate value per kilogram: $3,000 to $5,000 (depending on purity).
- STEP 3: Crossing the border.
Drug dealers routinely stash the fentanyl in trucks, usually mixed in with other shipping products. With 200,000 vehicles crossing the Mexico/US border each day, it’s not difficult for the deadly cargo to slip through.
Approximate value per kilogram: $20,000
- STEP 4: Urban hubs.
Once over the border, the idea is to quickly reach a drop-off spot. For example, before drugs enter New York City, there is often a distribution point where the trucker will rendezvous with smaller vehicles.
Approximate value per kilogram: $35,000
- STEP 5: Drug mills.
Inside apartments, houses, garages, wherever it is convenient, fentanyl is cut with adulterants and sealed in glassine (smooth and glossy paper that is air, water and grease resistant) envelopes that contain single-sized doses. A crew of 12 can package 100,000 glassines in 24 hours. On the street a glassine packet becomes a $10 sale.
One glassine usually contains less than two milligrams of fentanyl. Keep in mind that there are about 28,000 milligrams in one ounce. Properly divided, one ounce of fentanyl can equate to about 14,000 lethal doses.
Approximate value per kilogram: $300,000
- STEP 6: From the streets to the user.
This is where U.S. gangs become an important part of the Cartels’ distribution plan. Wholesalers’ pick-up glassine-enveloped goods from the drug mill and then meet up with their street dealers. Street dealers make approximately $2 for each $10 bag of fentanyl that they sell to their customers.
Approximate value per kilogram: $1 million; from $200 per kilogram leaving China to $1 million on U.S. streets killing about 300 Americans per day.
AUTHORITY TO USE THE U.S. MILITARY IN MEXICO
Can the U.S. use military force inside Mexico to defeat the Cartels? Former Attorney General William Barr, I assume after extensive research by his Justice Department staff, believes so. In 2020 he wrote;
“What will it take to defeat the Mexican Cartels?
First, a far more aggressive American effort inside Mexico than ever before, including a significant U.S. law-enforcement and intelligence presence, as well as select military capabilities. Optimally, the Mexican government will support and participate in this effort, and it is likely to do so once they understand that the U.S. is committed to do whatever is necessary to cripple the Cartels, whether or not the Mexican government participates.
Second, the danger Cartels pose to the U.S. requires that we confront them primarily as national-security threats, not a law-enforcement matter. These narco-terrorist groups are more like ISIS than like the American mafia. The only way to defeat them is to use every tool at our disposal inside Mexico.”
Constitutional War Powers (PPG), Article II, Section 2 grants the President the power to direct the military after a declaration of war by Congress.
Presidential Policy Guidance (PPG) on Procedures for Approving Direct Action Against Terrorist Targets Located Outside the United States and Areas of Active Hostilities. Put into place under the Obama administration, the PPG established standard operating procedures for circumstances when the U.S. takes direct action against terrorist targets outside of the US and outside of areas of active hostilities.
Article 51 of the United Nations Charter specifies that, “Nothing in this Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs.” The U.S. interpretation of the Charter recognizes three circumstances under which the use of force is permitted: 1) the use of force authorized by the UN Security Council under Chapter VII of the Charter; 2) the use of force in self-defense, including against imminent attacks; and 3) the use of force in an otherwise lawful manner with the consent of the territorial state.
SOME EXAMPLES OF THE U.S. ENGAGING TERRORISTS IN FOREIGN NATIONS IN THE PAST
Somalia: Over the past 10 years U. S. military operations against al-Shabaab terrorists with the consent of the government of Somalia in furtherance of U.S. national self-defense.
Libya: Operations against Daesh terrorists were conducted 2015-2019 with the consent of the Government of National Accord in furtherance of U.S. national self-defense.
Yemen: Operations against al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula have been conducted since 2015.
Given the above, one could argue that the Cartels have become a clear and present danger to the United States and that Congress has acknowledged inherent executive power in accordance with the Joint Resolution passed by Congress on September 14, 2001 which states the President may deploy military force preemptively against terrorist organizations in the states that harbor or support them, whether or not they can be linked to the specific terrorist incidents of September 1
January, 2025, President Trump declared the cartels terrorist organizations.
During the campaign Trump said, “When I am president, it will be the policy of the United States to take down the cartels, just as we took down ISIS and the ISIS caliphate
CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS FOR THE USE OF U.S. MILITARY IN MEXICO
During his State of the Union address on 4 March President Trump did not mince words about the threat drug cartels pose, saying “The cartels are waging war on America, and it’s time for America to wage war on the cartels.”
Begin by defining the overarching Rules of Engagement, ROE.
- Trust no one. Too many Mexican politicians, law enforcement and military at all levels are on the Cartels’ payroll, accepting bribes and/or living under threat of violence for themselves and their families.
Case in point: A former Mexican cabinet member, Garcia Luna, was convicted February 2023 in the U.S. for taking bribes to protect the violent drug Cartels. He has been sentenced to 20 years in prison. Note he was convicted in the U.S., not in Mexico.
- The second ROE is to secretly develop detailed strategic and tactical plans before any U.S. forces are introduced into Mexico.
- Conduct Mexico-wide operations without a visible military foot-print inside Mexico. This may be very difficult.
- Do all of this with, at least, tacit approval by Mexico’s new President Sheinbaum. This may be a difficult process. On 5 February,2025, the U.S. Attorney General published a memo for all Department of Justice employees announcing that President Donald Trump had issued a directive urging the federal government, “To revise existing national security and counter-narcotics strategies.” When apprised of this, Mexico’s President Sheinbaum responded during a news conference stating, “They (the U.S.) should start with their own country; of course, we are going to coordinate and collaborate, never subordination or interference; it is coordination.”
- All of the planning and on into execution must be Close Hold in order to preserve and protect military operational security; Need-to-Know only. There will be no media briefs.
- Presidents Trump and Sheinbaum should meet secretly and agree to this concept of operations for the benefit of both countries. The point of the meeting is for President Trump to assert to his Mexican counterpart President Sheinbaum, that her country is in serious trouble, her government has lost control of large sections of territory, it is getting worse, it is negatively impacting the U.S. and we have no intentions of having a narco-terrorists nation, the likes of ISIS, on our southern border. We are not asking for permission but very much want President Sheinbaum’s blessing and cooperation.
- The internal U.S. Trump team should consist of the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) Commander, CIA Director and the Director of National Intelligence.
Of course, there could be a very long list of senior government officials (Sec Def, Joint Chiefs, Secretary Homeland Security, Secretary of State, etc. etc.) who believe they should be included. But therein lies a big problem. Each would have subordinates working on remarks, power point slides, fact sheets, position papers, etc. Questions would be asked down the chains of command and within a few days thousands would be on the Close Hold, Need-to-Know list followed by headlines in the Washington Post, NY Times, CNN, etc. The Cartels would be ready and negative world opinion (China, Russia, etc.) would flood back to President Trump. .
- President Trump then turns the meeting over to the JSOC Commander who will explain that tanks will not be rolling south, the 82nd Airborne Division will not be parachuting into Sinaloa State, and we have no intention to subsume control of any Mexican territory.
- Commander JSOC will go on to explain that the military footprint inside Mexico will be almost invisible. This will be a war fought at night by special operations forces; namely, Navy Seals, Marine Force Recon, Army Rangers, Army Special Forces and Army Delta Force. Mexicans will not see U.S. military vehicles patrolling their countryside, road blocks, checkpoints, or military formations attacking Cartel militias.
- President Trump interjects to explain that what President Sheinbaum will see and hear is that Cartel leaders are missing, their chains of command are being killed and captured, incoming supplies and outgoing products are not on schedule, production facilities are disappearing and Cartels are blaming other Cartels for a takeover of their territory. This will allow Mexican military and law enforcement to go on the offensive and regain control of territory and generally reduce the violence.
- The meeting will then be turned over to the Director of National Intelligence who will explain that every operational collection element of the U.S. intelligence inventory will be focused on Mexico. These intel capabilities will be temporarily placed under the operational control of a special intel task force for Operation Cartel. Of particular importance will be Humint, Human intelligence. Because of the decentralized, mom-and-pop production of fentanyl powder and tablets, we need a nation-wide Humint collection effort. Find a production facility today, take it out tonight. Find a collection point today, take it out tonight. Locate cartel leaders, at every level, today take them out tonight.
The Director of National Intelligence will go on to explain that every intel organization in the U.S. will be tasked to provide all of their individuals of Latin American heritage to be temporarily assigned to a CIA-led Operation Cartel task force for human intel collection. They will be given credentials for in-country personal security, inserted into communities all over Mexico, begin building local cells and reporting findings.
- Drones of every size and capability will fill the sky; surveillance drones with real-time downlinks to Special Operations forces on the ground; drones armed with Hellfire missiles in the air and on station for immediate use by ground forces against high-value targets and targets of opportunity.
- Tell President Sheinbaum that nothing that has been discussed during the meeting will be disclosed down her chain of command because of the likelihood that many of them have been compromised by violent threats from the Cartel leaders. The first ROE will be immediately applicable; trust no one.
- The applicable elements of the U.S. government will begin immediately to transform the concept into a phased plan for execution of actionable intelligence. Every element will be placed under the operational control of the JSOC Commander for phase 1, planning (about six weeks) and throughout the execution phases. The intent is to begin operations with a Mexico-wide shock-and-awe attack on Cartel headquarters, production facilities, collection/distribution points and supply chains to immediately put the Cartels on their heels and in a defensive posture. Then increase the operational tempo to the maximum extent possible.
CONCLUSIONS
Mexico is in deep trouble. Cartels are gaining ground every day and there does not appear to be any aggressive counter-Cartel actions by President Sheinbaum.
Currently the U.S. has no counter-cartel plan. The U.S. and Mexico must help each other. We must take the initiative away from the Cartels and give Mexico’s law enforcement and military the confidence to wade in and finish the job.
While taking out the Cartels, the U.S. must completely rethink its operations at the 300-plus U.S. ports of entry. Over 90% of all the hard drugs confiscated is accomplished at the ports of entry. While that is good news, it also implies that there is such an enormous volume that gets through and on to the streets.
Going back to a previous note, the FBI reports there are about 33,000 violent street gangs, motorcycle gangs, and prison gangs criminally active in the U.S. today with about 1.4 million members. President Trump, the Justice Department, ICE and nation-wide law enforcement must become fully engaged to convince Mexico that we are fully committed to simultaneously clean up our own house.
We should continue President Trump’s initiatives to physically close our borders.
BOTTOM LINE
“Where there is a will, there is a way.” If the United States does not take positive overwhelming action to take out the Cartels, they will find a way to get their drugs into the U.S. and thereby continue their billion-dollar operations.
With the post-Biden initiatives for change, for greater national security and for law and order, this concept of operations is now within the art of the possible.
Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of two books, Vision to Execution and Fix the Systems, Transform America as well as the author of a blog, WeThePeopleSpeaking.com.