Month: October 2024

Note to subscribers: This immigration article was previously published some years ago. Since immigration consistently polls as one of the top three voter concerns for this election, and because neither Trump nor Harris have articulated a specific plan to deal with the issue, I am providing an updated concept of operations to shut down the open border and stop the flow of illegal immigrants into the U.S.

All persons residing in the U.S. are supposed to fall into one of three categories; that is, a U.S. citizen or those with a Green Card permanent resident status or temporary inhabitants with Visitor or Student Visas.  However, an estimated 20-plus million inhabitants exist outside those categories; WE DO NOT KNOW WHO THEY ARE OR WHERE THEY RESIDE. They are undocumented and therefore illegal inhabitants.

According to polled voters, immigration is one of the top issues in this campaign.  Candidate Trump has said he will execute a “mass deportation.”  The questions are, who goes, who stays and how do we sort it out?

Of course, the Democrat’s “solution” to illegal immigrants in the U.S. is amnesty-for-all which will be a complete disaster for the country.  “Amnesty for all” means ALL, including criminals, cartel operatives, trans-American gang members, human traffickers, drug dealers those out of work, those who don’t want to work, those sucking on welfare, food stamps, Medicaid, Medicare, government housing and the many hard-working honest folks who love this country. To the Democrats, illegal immigrants are just another identity group to be sucked into the Left’s ideology and put on the voter rolls.  

In 1954, border officials worked with local law enforcement to, they claimed, round up more than 1 million Mexican nationals and deported them to the Mexico side of the border.

IMMIGRATION REFORM END STATE.

 If the Republican Party was to brain-storm a possible 2025 campaign plan to clean up the illegal immigration mess, what would we be looking for? It might look something like this:

Institute a policy that will shut down the mases of illegals crossing our borders, forever.

Free up the Border Patrol agents to fulfill their intended mission; catch all illegals  and stop the flow of drugs and human trafficking.

Create a path to citizenship for the hard-working, law-abiding illegals already in the U.S.

Provide a clear distinction for potential deportees so that ICE can locate, arrest and deport them.

Do all this with a program that pays for itself.

HERE IS A DETAILED PLAN:

The objective of this Immigration Reform Plan is, by a certain near-term date, make documentation available to every non-citizen U.S. inhabitant.  Thereafter, everyone undocumented becomes subject to deportation. 

The “document” for the undocumented inhabitants will be an Illegal Alien Card (for simplicity, hereafter referred to as the IA Card). The cards will have the high technology of a drivers’ license to inhibit counterfeiting; will be changed and reissued annually; and each card will contain a picture, fingerprint and an IA Card number assigned from a U.S. central registry.  This is a multi-phased operation but the Immigration Reform Plan can be fully operational within a few months after being signed into law. 

This plan is simple, self-regulating, and does not require supplemental regulations or a federal bureaucracy to execute. This concept of operations is based on the assumption that Trump will be elected president 5 November, 2024.

PHASE ONE, THE FIRST 100 DAYS OF THE NEW TRUMP ADMINISTRATION

The President prepares a 10-page law based on the procedures explained herein followed by Congressional passage of the Immigration Reform Plan.  The language in the law must be very specific and not subject to interpretation or change by States or local authorities.  The reason for specificity in the law is to preclude the requirement for federal bureaucrats to interpret the law and re-write it into policy with unintended consequences. 

PHASE TWO, MAY, JUNE, 2025

Each State will set up IA Card registration sites.  A logical solution is to add one or two positions to every DMV office.  Additionally, in Phase Two, every law enforcement agency in the United States will forward information to the Federal Bureau of Investigation on every felony committed by an undocumented inhabitant (who, what, when and where).  The FBI will establish and maintain a continuously updated national database of these cases which allows for an immediate check against an application for an IA Card.

PHASE THREE, JUL thru DEC, 2025

The tens of millions of undocumented inhabitants may report to an IA CARD registration site in the state where they reside in accordance with a published alphabetical schedule (last name beginning with A, B, C, or D report during July, 2025 etc.).  If the applicant has a felony conviction, that person will be taken into custody, deported and will NEVER be eligible for an IA Card. 

This is an example of the specificity of the language that must be in the Immigration Reform Law; one strike and out. 

Prior to appearing at the IA Card registration site, each applicant must download a Federal Form, Employer’s Statement of Employment, fill it out and have it signed by their employer. No employer signature, no IA Card.  The form must contain a statement of strong penalties for any employer signing a false statement.  Registration fee for the IA Card is $50 per year. 

When phase 3 ends it will never be repeated.  Every illegal immigrant in the United States on 1 January, 2026 is either a legal holder of an IA Card or THEY ARE deportable.  The IA Card holders will tell us who is employed, where they live, where they work, what they do and how many direct family (spouse and children) members they have. 

PHASE FOUR, JANUARY, 2026: 

This is the phase that begins to change behavior and thereby solve the dual problems of undocumented inhabitants and unsecured borders.

On 1 January, 2026, any employer who employs an undocumented worker (no IA Card) will be subject to a fine of $25,000 for each worker, first offense; $50,000 each worker, second offense. No exceptions, no excuses. No employer is going to risk his livelihood over the employment of an illegal alien.

Laws change behavior and add accountability of employers into the immigration solution.   

This simple act of requiring illegal aliens to carry an IA Card will have four positive and immediate results:

First, employers will protect themselves from potentially heavy fines by only hiring inhabitants who have a valid IA Card.

Second, undocumented inhabitants who choose not to apply for an IA Card or were denied an IA Card will not be able to find an employer who will take them on.  They will therefore be unemployable, will be constantly liable for deportation if detained for any reason and many may choose to return to their country of citizenship.

Third, and this is where a secure border begins to become a reality, foreigners contemplating illegal entry into the United States in order to work will soon learn that no employer is going to hire them and illegal entry will be futile. This inevitable behavior change will, by default, reduce illegal immigration to a trickle.     

Fourth, this will provide Border Patrol officers the opportunity to concentrate their efforts on the illegal entry of drugs, terrorists, gang members, criminals, cartel operatives and human traffickers.    

PHASE FIVE, 1 JULY 2026: 

This phase begins the twelve-month reissue of IA Cards; $50 fee.  The card color will change each calendar year.  ONLY (again, specificity in the law) those inhabitants holding an IA Card can receive a renewal card.  Additionally, they will be denied renewal if they have been unemployed and made less than $5000 or if they have been convicted of a felony.  Once denied, they will be detained, deported and NEVER receive another card. Any IA Card that is not renewed by the annual renewal date will automatically be moved to the government’s deportation list.

In order to fund the Immigration Reform Law, a provision in the law will require IA Card holders to pay 10% Federal income taxes on earned income.  Employers must issue a 1099 using the individual’s IA Card number to identify them to the IRS. 

The Federal Government will retain 2% of the tax revenue to fund three national data bases for The Immigration Reform Plan. The remaining 8% will be returned to the States in proportion to the number of IA Card holders. 

IRS REGISTRY OF IA CARD HOLDERS

The IRS will establish the National Registry of Card holders and their card number.  That data base will eventually list earned income and taxes paid for the previous year.  During the IA Card renewal process, the registration center will immediately access the IRS data base to determine if the applicant has in fact been employed, made at least $5000 and paid taxes.  No tax records, no renewal and the applicant will be detained and deported. 

DEPARTMENT OF LABOR REGISTRY

An IA Card holder who loses his or her job may immediately place an employment application to a National IA Card holder registry website maintained by the Department of Labor.  This database will describe the IA Card holder’s skills and be broken down by zip code.  An employer seeking to hire, for example, a carpenter has two options. One is to make direct contact with an IA Card holder; second is to review the Department of Labor national data base of unemployed IA Card holders.

FBI REGISTRY OF KNOWN NON-CITIZEN CRIMINALS

This will be accessed by the state application center for the initial IA Card and during each card renewal process.

PRIVILEGES FOR IA CARD HOLDERS

One, they may apply for a state vehicle operator’s license and will be tested in English. A provision of the law will be that every State must prominently display the individual’s IA Card number on the State Driver’s License.  Additionally, every applicant must show proof of auto insurance.

Two, a current IA Card will authorize the holder to legally cross U.S. borders. 

Three, legal holders may apply for an IA Card Dependent Card (using the sponsor’s IA Card number with a suffix) for their spouse and children (no extended family members).  If granted, the sponsor will be authorized to escort the dependents across the U.S. border.

Four, children born to IA Card holders in the U.S. will not automatically be granted U.S. citizenship.  If, however, the parents eventually gain citizenship, dependent children under the age of 18 will also be granted citizenship.  This law will undoubtedly be challenged in the courts. The current law is based on post-Civil War intent to protect children born to freed slaves who had no documentation to substantiate their citizenship.  That law should be updated as part of the Immigration Reform Plan

Five, after legally holding an IA Card for five consecutive years, that person is eligible to apply for U.S. citizenship for themselves and their immediate family (spouse and children).

Remember, these people are here illegally.  Therefore, they will NOT be eligible for social security, welfare payments of any kind, food assistance programs, Medicaid, Medicare, or social services.  This will save billions of dollars per year in federal and state assistance payments.  

CONCLUSIONS

Is this plan doable? Yes.

This plan provides the sorting process to answer the key questions, who may stay and who should be deported.

If employers want foreign workers, they must become involved and accountable. Their only requirements are to hire IA Card holders and to report employee earnings on a 1099.

Enforcement:  Let’s say a person is stopped for a traffic violation.  If the driver’s license contains an IA Card number the law enforcement officer can immediately access the FBI data base to determine if the person has a felony conviction, if the card is overdue for annual renewal or if the person is on the FBI’s deportation list.  If any violations are found, the alien will be arrested, detained and deported. 

For this to work two things have to happen.  First, the Congress has to pass a pure, non-watered down, straight-talk law with only a few pages of specificity that is not subject to interpretation by bureaucrats at the Federal, State or Local levels.  Secondly, the FBI, IRS and Department of Labor, will need to develop high-speed, simple, secure, data bases that are immediately accessible by State and Local officials.  We cannot afford to create a bungling bureaucratic morass like the current Immigration and Naturalization Service. 

This will save the tens of billions of dollars state and the federal governments are currently spending on illegal immigrants.

This will get the Border Patrol agents out of the business of processing, on average, over 7,000 illegals per day and back to intercepting criminals, gang members, terrorists, cartel operatives, human traffickers and drug dealers.  This criminal element is currently referred to as “gotaways” by the border patrol and have been arriving in the U.S at an average rate of over 36,000 per month under the Biden/Harris administration.  That’s about 1,200 per day.  And we wonder why our streets are no longer safe.

BOTTOM LINE

We should assume that most immigrants come here with the expectation that they can eventually get a job.  Under this plan, 14 months from now on 1 january 2026 there will never be another IA Card issue and therefore everyone crossing the border illegally will be a potential deportee.  This will voluntarily stop the flow of the thousands per day we have experienced under Biden/Harris policy.

Immigration reform is not about amnesty or open borders; it is about accountability and changing behavior. 

Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO EXECUTION, a book for leaders, FIX THE SYSTEMS, TRANSFORM AMERICA as well as the author of a blog WeThePeopleSpeaking.com.

TRUMP vs BIDEN/HARRIS SCORE CARD

11 October, 2024

Memorandum for Conservative Voters

Subject: A Voting Score Card

The purpose of this memo is to provide a compilation of fact-checked data that you can provide to your Liberal and Unaffiliated friends before they go to vote.

THE ECONOMY:

INFLATION: Trump inflation January 2021 was 1.4%..

Biden/Harris took inflation to 9.1%.  How did they do this?  the simplest economic formula that everyone knows is that inflation is caused by, “too much money chasing too few products.”  Also. what everyone knows is that Trump sponsored a $2 trillion stimulus package for the American people May, 2020 because the nation was shut down from Covid. Few were working or getting paid.

Trump signed, what was to be the final stimulus package December, 2020: $900 billion. Everyone was getting a Covid shot which would put people back to work.

Soon after the Biden/Harris inauguration, January 2021, Biden signed the American Rescue Plan Act which contained an additional covid stimulus package of $1.9 trillion. By then everyone had a Covid shot and the economy was up and running. But because production of products throughout the world in 2020 had been reduced by businesses being shut down, there were few products to buy with the $1.9 trillion in the hands of consumers; “too much money chasing too few product.”  Any first-year economics student could have predicted the 40-year high inflation rate that went to 9.1%.  Middle class and lower income class families suffered from terrible decision making and still do today.

Throughout the Biden/Haris administration whenever the inflation rate has gone down a half a per centage point, there would be a White House briefing declaring that “Bidenomics is working.”  Yes, the rate went down but the prices didn’t, especially for daily family essentials such as food, gas and rent.

Trump-era bottom line; paychecks grew faster than inflation. Average weekly earnings for all workers were up 8.4% after inflation.

Biden/Harris bottom line; Biden/Harris claim, “this country’s working people actually got a raise.” The truth is, they did with an overall increase of 4.7%. But with inflation at 7%, the average person lost ground in terms of real income. 

CONSUMER DEBT:  In 2019 consumer debt was $13.67 trillion. In 2024 it is $17.8 trillion.  A 30 % increase under Biden/Harris. Bidenomics is unsuccessful economic policy and will likely continue into a Harris administration. Are you better off now than you were 4 years ago?

GAS PRICES:  January, 2021 the average price for a gallon of gas across the U.S. was $2.25.  Under Biden/Harris the average price peaked in June, 2022 at $5.06.  An increase of 125%. That also increased the price of everything we buy that comes out of a truck. The average price today, 11 October, is $3.25.

INTEREST RATES:  In January, 2021 the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage Annual Percentage Rate was 2.65%. On October 8, 2024, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage APR was 6.45%. And the highest rate in the past 3 years under Biden/Harris was 7.51% which stalled out business expansion and home buying.

IMMIGRATION:  Under the Trump administration, there were 2.4 million encounters on the border. Since January 2021, there have been more than 10 million encounters. An increase of 320% by Biden/Harris. These figures do not include people who crossed the border undetected.

“Gotaways” are illegal immigrants who were detected by cameras and other means but were not apprehended. Gotaways include criminals, gang members, terrorists, human traffickers, cartel operatives and drug transporters/dealers. 

From 2010 to 2020, when former presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump held office, around 1.4 million gotaways entered the country. That is an average of about 15,000 per month. Under Biden/Harris there have been at least 1.6 million gotaways in their first 36 months, an average of over 44,000 per month. A serious threat to national security.

As his number one priority, getting control of the border, Trump initiated 472 Executive actions on immigration. During the first 364 days of the Biden/Harris administration, they took 296 executive actions to reverse or undo Trump policies on immigration.

To be more specific, a recent release from ICE reveals, “over 13,000 murderers, 15,000 rapists and 425,000 convicted criminals were allowed into America by Biden-Harris open border.” They are walking our streets today.

Violent crime in Venezuela is at its lowest mark in 22 years. Why? Venezuela cleaned out their prisons, rounded up gang members and sent them to us under Biden/Harris.

THE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY:

In October 1973, the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries announced that it was implementing a total oil embargo against the countries who had supported Israel at any point during the 1973 Yom Kippur War. That oil embargo shook the global energy market, reset geopolitics and reordered the global economy. Therefore, for the past 5 decades it has been U.S. policy to find a way to gain energy independence.  Trump set out to do just that and in 2019 and 2020 U.S. exports of primary energy exceeded energy imports from foreign sources.

Biden/Harris immediately torpedoed the U.S. oil industry.

For a lot of complex reasons, the U.S. began importing crude oil from Russia. When Russia invaded Ukraine, Biden/Harris decided to drop Russian imports.  So, Biden went hat-in-hand to Saudi Arabia which he had earlier publicly proclaimed to be a, “pariah nation.”  The Saudis, who had been our Middle East friend for decades, refused to provide oil.  So, Biden/Harris turned to Venezuela, a nation led by a brutal dictator Maduro where the economy has nose-dived and children are starving.

U.S. oil and gas drilling takes years of planning and financing by the oil industry.  As normally happens, before leaving office Trump proposed 47 lease sales over a 5-year period.  Biden/Harris cancelled all lease sales for 2024 and will only allow 3 sales in 2025-2028. Just another anti-Trump action with no thought behind it.

STRATEGIC OIL RESERVE:

The energy crisis spawned by a Middle East war 50 years ago spurred the U.S. to create a huge crude oil stockpile to shield the country from threats by unfriendly nations.

Normal levels over the years have ranged from 600,000 to 700,000 barrels. When Biden/Harris took over, the inventory was 638,000 barrels and a gallon of gas was $2.25.  When gas prices reached over $5 a gallon and the 2022 midterm elections were upon us, Biden/Harris sold off more than 40 percent of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve leaving the stockpile at its lowest levels since the early 1980s. National security means nothing to Biden/Harris. What do they think the word “strategic” implies?

TAXES:

In 2017 Trump cut taxes, the economy grew, minority and female employment was the highest ever and from that tax cut the federal government revenue was the highest in history in 2019.

Biden/Harris’ economic policies are based on a simple but ridiculous philosophy of “tax and spend.”  That is, continuously look for new ways to tax and to increase existing tax rates. Then look for ways to return those tax dollars to identity groups.  It’s called “vote buying,” For example using billions of tax payers’ money to pay down student debt is a perfect example off vote buying to build a young-voters identity group.

Biden/Harris continuously target the wealthy for higher taxes. Rich folks do not put their extra money under their mattress.  They invest it; it’s called capital. “Capital” finances capitalism, the heart and soul of America.  Biden/Harris believe rich folks are prime tax targets to “pay their fair share.”  The latest data available tells us the bottom half of taxpayers paid 2.3 % of all federal individual income taxes while the top 1% paid 45.8 % of all federal income and Biden/Harris say that is not fair?

Harris says, “the rich corporations need to pay more taxes.” Trump’s tax cuts slashed corporate rates from 35% to 21%. Why? In today’s globalized world, U.S. corporations were at a huge competitive disadvantage. Our 35% tax rate was the highest among the 33 other industrialized countries that make up the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) which had an average rate of 25 %.

First of all, Harris needs to understand that corporations do not pay taxes, people pay taxes.  That is, a corporation’s product is the sum of many expenses; raw materials, production, wages, advertising etc.  They add up all the expenses, plus a profit and that becomes the product’s selling price.  A corporate tax is just another cost of producing the product and results in a higher price to the consumer which also makes it less competitive in the global market.  Harris proposes to raise the corporate tax rate from 21 to 28%. Why?  Because she needs tax revenue to support her new expensive give-away programs.

She is also proposing an unrealized capital gains tax. That is, you own an asset, it increases in value and you are taxed on that current value that year even though you didn’t sell it.  Did she ever think that assets may increase in value one year and the next year decrease in value? This is pure nonsense.

FENTANYL DEATHS:

While Trump was getting some control over the border. American deaths from fentanyl in 2019 were 22,900.  By 2022 with the Biden/Harris border wide open the deaths were 45,300, an increase of 99%.  By 2023 the U.S. fentanyl deaths rose to 112,000, which eclipses every previous drug epidemic. The 112,000 averages out at about 307, mostly young Americans, dying from fentanyl overdose every single day in 2023. When have you heard either Biden or Harris mention fentanyl? What have they done about it?  Absolutely nothing. There is blood on Biden/Harris’ hands.  

WORLD WAR III IN THE MIDDLE EAST?

WW III is a possibility with the Israelis fighting Hamas, Hizballah, Houthi and Iran. They are in fact not four wars they are one war based on Iran’s financing, training, supplying and leading all of the above.  Why is Iran capable of financing all of this mayhem?

The Trump administration renewed UN sanctions on Iran and enforced them.  Iran’s foreign currency reserves fell from $128 billion in 2015 to $15 billion in 2019.

During the Trump administration, Iran’s capabilities and options were reduced and the U.S. was gaining ground in Middle East countries’ acceptance of Israel’s right to exist and prosper as a friendly neighbor. For the Biden/Harris administration it has been three plus years of appeasement towards Iran. Biden has rewarded the Ayatollah to the tune of about $100 billion; that is, massive revenue from the non-enforcement of U.S. oil sanctions over three years, a $6 billion ransom payment and a $10 billion sanctions waiver. Iran’s oil exports and sale of massive numbers of weapon systems and drones allows it to live up to their 40-year title as, “the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism.” 

What is it about this simple equation that Biden/Harris cannot comprehend? The turmoil and blood-shed in the Middle East today is their doing. It didn’t have to happen.  It should not have happened.  Someone with an ounce of common sense when it comes to foreign policy has to lead this nation.

LEADERSHIP 

Defining leadership can be a complicated task.  But there are some simple pieces that can tell a huge story.  Great leaders by design or sometimes it just happens to work out that they create an environment wherein there is a continuous sense of trust and respect that runs both up and down the chain of command throughout an organization no matter how large of small.  

Staffers who worked for Harris before she was vice president said one consistent problem was that Harris would refuse to wade into briefing materials prepared by staff members, then berate employees when she appeared unprepared. 

VP Harris currently has a staff of 47. In just 3 yeas the turnover rate has been 91.5 %. 24 of the departees, nearly half, have departed in just the last 12 months; one departee said in an interview, “VP Harris destroyed my soul.”  Trust and respect?

The White House needs to be the ultimate work place where our best and brightest will gladly work long, hard days to be all they can be for America.

BIDEN/HARRIS SUMMARY

Increased prices from inflation have become the new normal.

The deterrent level of our military has been shattered; our former allies no longer trust us and our enemies do not fear us. 

Many of our once-great cities are unrecognizable with homeless people living on the streets littered with human feces and drug paraphernalia.

Too many Americans are fearful to walk the streets and use public transportation because of gang violence.

It is not uncommon for someone arrested for committing a violent crime already has a rap-sheet showing 10, 20 or even 30 prior arrests without having served a day in jail.

No-cash bail, putting criminals immediately back on the street, has become all too common. 

Too many prosecutors do not prosecute obvious criminals.

Too many liberal judges do not send convicted criminals to jail.

Too many communities are now controlled by violent trans-American gangs.

We are living in a failing society.

CHANGE 2025-2028

The above scorecard paints a frightening picture of what the American people have experienced under Biden/Harris.  The takeaway for a voter is the pronouncement last week by VP Harris while appearing live on THE VIEW. When asked by the host, “would you have done anything differently than Biden?”  She responded, “there is not a thing that comes to mind in terms of—-and I’ve been a part of—–of the decisions that have had impact.” 

How does that no-change-necessary statement VP Harris link to her almost daily public assertion that her campaign is about, “a new way forward?” She has consistently avoided explaining what “new way” means.

The above scorecard has nothing to do with gender.  I’m convinced that if the likes of Nikki Haley were running for president with her background of successfully leading as governor of South Carolina and her four years up-close-and-personal dealing in foreign affairs as U.S Ambassador to the United Nations, the potential future for America would look very different.

WE NEED AN INFORMED PRESIDENT

What we have observed from the Biden/Harris administration are leaders who are not only reluctant but appear incapable of standing in front of a room full of reporters and answering tough questions for an hour or so. Our conclusions from watching pre-scripted questions and pre-scripted answers being read to us from note cards is that they are generally uninformed, uncomfortable and unsure of their own capabilities.  We are in fact hearing from some nameless, faceless staffer or bureaucrat.  A very uncomfortable situation for we-the-people.

TRUMP OR HARRIS?

While most of you conservatives clearly recognize the VP Harris is not qualified to be president, many of you are also uncomfortable with former President Trump’s ego, communications skills and sometimes pompous attitude. What I am suggesting is that under the circumstances we need to look beyond his personality and recognize that his policies are almost without exception in the best interest of all Americans.  Also recognize that he has a tireless work ethic and will not shy away from any issue, no matter how distasteful or controversial it might be.

BOTOM LINE

America is going through one of the most trying times in our history.  When considering which candidate has the better chance of cleaning up this mess, I see a striking difference between the two candidates.  There is every reason to believe Harris will be a disaster.  Trump, on the other hand, will likely leave the country in better shape in January 2029 than he found it in January 2025.  For the sake of this country, do not fail to vote just because you do not think highly of former President Trump, your country is counting on you. Again, as requested in the opening, please share this with your Democrat and Unaffiliated friends.  Thank you.   

Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of two books, Vision to Execution and Fix the Systems, Transform America as well as the author of a blog, WeThePeopleSpeaking.com.

One view of the warring efforts by Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Houthis in Yemen is that they are independent actions and that Israel should seek cease fires, hostage release and peace negotiations with each of them.  That kind of thinking fails to consider the definition of the overall problem in the Middle East.

FACTS BEARING ON THE PROBLEM:

Iran has the 3^rd largest world reserves of oil and the 2^nd largest reserves of gas.

The Iranians have mastered the art of sanctions circumvention and thereby are currently giving their economy a $35 billion-a-year boost.

Since 1984 Iran has been designated “the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism.” For four decades the Iranian leaders have consistently articulated their twofold objectives; “destruction of Israel and “death to America”.

The Trump administration renewed UN sanctions on Iran and enforced them.  Iran’s foreign currency reserves fell from $128 billion in 2015 to $15 billion in 2019.

During the Trump administration, Iran’s capabilities and options were reduced and the U.S. was gaining ground in Middle East countries’ acceptance of Israel’s right to exist and prosper as a friendly neighbor. For the Biden administration it has been three plus years of appeasement. Biden has rewarded the Ayatollah to the tune of about $100 billion; that is, massive revenue from the non-enforcement of U.S. oil sanctions over three years, a $6 billion ransom payment and a $10 billion sanctions waiver.

Tehran has used its so-called “proxy army” of more than a dozen militias and terror groups across the Middle East with outposts around the world to help foment instability, carry out attacks, and expand the scope of the Islamic Revolution.

Iran has contributed hundreds of millions of dollars towards training and equipping Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi terrorist organizations with thousands of rockets, missiles, drones and other warfighting equipment.

The Houthi have conducted hundreds of attacks against regional targets in Saudi Arabia and are now endangering world shipping in the Red Sea.  When Trump took office, he put the Houthi organization on the world terrorist list.  Biden, immediately took them off the terrorist list for no reason other than to undo a Trump initiative.

CONCLUSIONS FROM THE ABOVE:

While war fighting in the Middle East appears to be separate wars they are not.  What is going on right now in the Middle East is Iran’s promised destruction of Isreal and creation of a new Iran-controlled Middle east.

Placing responsibility for negotiations on Netanyahu is absolutely the wrong approach and will not end well. 

Let’s be honest about what Homas, Hezbollah and Houthi are; they are Iran trained, equipped, financed and led forward-deployed forces. Iran calls all the shots. 

We and the remainder of the world have to take “negotiations” directly to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The U.S. must lead this effort because the United Nations is helpless and cannot lead anyone towards a productive end of anything.

A WAY FORWARD

Begin by getting President Biden on the phone with all of the other 30 NATO country’s leaders.  Ask for their naval forces to converge on the Persian Gulf with U.S. carrier battle groups providing total control of the air. Then call on our allies in the Pacific, Indian Ocean, Latin America and Africa to also participate in the Persian Gulf.  That is, nothing going in to Iran and nothing coming out without Coalition approval; a 100% embargo.  

Three years ago, Iran opened its first oil terminal in the Gulf of Oman, a move that allows it to avoid using the narrow Strait of Hormuz shipping route that is vulnerable to being shut down. Therefore, expand the embargo into the Gulf of Oman.

THE OBJECTIVES OF THE MIDDLE EAST EMBARGO COALITION ARE TO:

Get this multi-nation impenetrable embargo in place within two to three weeks.

Immediately convince Iran’s leaders that the embargo will last until all terrorist aggression has ceased throughout the Middle East.

The embargo will shut down oil and gas exports and thereby shut down Iran’s financial support to world terrorist organizations.

The embargo will shut down Iran’s import of all nations’ supplies of hardware and software that support their large and expanding weapons manufacturing and export capabilities.

As of January 2024, Tehran has exported drones and/or drone technology to at least five countries on four continents as well as to at least seven of their force projection terrorist organizations and militias in the Middle East.

Drones pose a continuing threat to Middle East security because of their low cost, widespread availability, and potential deniability, since their point of origin can be disguised.

Iran’s missile proliferation efforts have enormous destabilizing potential for the region. Iran has about 20 different ballistic missile models as well as cruise missiles with delivery ranges up to 2,000 kilometers. Nine different Iranian missile models can reach Israel.

BOTTOM LINE:

For four decades Iran has been allowed to build a force projection capability consisting of Iran-trained, equipped and led terrorist organizations operating outside Iran’s borders. Take away Iran’s ability to support those forces and they will no longer be a significant conventional threat to Middle East stability.

Simply stated, we need to stop thinking about 12 Iran-supported terrorist organizations as independent operators and begin referring to them as forward-deployed elements of the greater Iran military establishment.

Forward deploying forces is not a new concept. For example, the U.S. has had forward air and land forces on European soil continuously since WW II and in South Korea since the armistice was signed in 1952. 

IRAN’S SUPREME LEADER AYATOLLAH ALI KHOMENEI:

He is the most powerful figure in Iran; the country’s Supreme Leader since 1989. He is head of state and commander-in-chief. He has authority over the national police and the “morality police.” The Ayatollah also controls the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps which is in charge of internal security, and its volunteer wing, the Basiji Resistance Force which has repeatedly quelled internal dissent. When the Iranian people begin to rise up against their leaders, the world should support them.

Upon implementation of the Middle East Embargo Coalition, send the following message, signed by the leaders of all participating nations, to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Supreme Leader, naval and air forces of the world are enroute to establish and impenetrable shipping embargo in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Ground forces will not invade your nation if you adhere to the following conditions.

 CONDITION ONE FOR ESCALATION: 

The coalition is taking the same position of that practiced by NATO nations over the past eight decades. That is, Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty states: “The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them . . . shall be considered an attack against them all.” 

The point being, the Coalition is hereby advising you that if there are any counter attacks, including cyber, conventional military, manned air, drones of any kind, missiles, rockets or nuclear, against any Middle East Embargo Coalition member from this moment forward by your forces in Iran or any of the terrorist or militias forward deployed that you support in any way, will result in an immediate escalated response from the Middle East Embargo Coalition nations. 

The response will be to immediately transition from an air and naval operation to an all-out air-ground operation.  The Ground operation’s intent will be to accomplish the following: 

All military forces and every associated facility and military item will be dissolved and/or destroyed.

Military forces resisting the Coalition ground force will become casualties or captured. POWs will be incarcerated.

Any military leader of a company-level sized force or larger may surrender in-mass if every person in the unit comes forward with their uniforms and every piece of equipment associated with their military duties. The equipment will be destroyed and the personnel released to go home.

Any individual military member may, of their own choosing, appear at a designated site with uniforms and equipment, surrender his/her allegiance to your military and be released to go home. 

Within hours or days, you will have no military force or military equipment.

Your government will cease to exist.

The coalition will provide all support necessary for a new government of-the-people and by-the-people to be selected and seated.

The general nature of the Iranian society will include equal opportunities for all men and women alike in education, property ownership, general rights and privileges, professional careers in law, medicine, teaching, government, etc. 

THE SECOND CONDITION that will cause the Coalition to escalate to ground operations described above has to do with your intent to become a nuclear power. If it is determined that you have completed development of a nuclear weapon or that you have purchased or bartered for and have on hand all the necessary elements to produce a nuclear weapon within days or if you have purchased a completed nuclear weapon, the Coalition ground forces will engage and take down that entire nuclear capability and destroy every associated facility you have hidden underground or inside mountains.

At this point, Ayatollah, you are possibly concluding that this Coalition is likely to be an impossible undertaking. We are telling you a coalition effort is certainly within the art of the possible. You will recall in 1990 Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi forces attacked, defeated and occupied Kuwait. Many believed it was a stepping-stone move towards the Saudi Arabian oil fields. In January 1991 a 39-nation coalition attacked and defeated Saddam Hussien’s vaunted “Mother of All Armies” in just six weeks of air and ground operations. Please pay attention to these numbers which tell a powerful story.

Coalition: 39 countries, of which 28 contributed combat forces.

Force size: Approximately 670,000 troops from 28 countries, 425,000 of which were from the United States.

Coalition air component size: 2,250 combat aircraft, 1,800 of which were American.

Coalition airlift: 509,129 passengers and 594,730 tons of cargo carried.

Coalition sorties flown: 100,000+.

Aerial refueling: 15,434 sorties and dispensed 110.2 million gallons of fuel.

Number of dumb bombs dropped: 210,000.

Number of smart bombs dropped: 9,342.

30mm depleted uranium rounds fired by A-10 manned aircraft (tank-killers): 782,514.

Duration of air campaign before ground invasion: 39 days.

Iraqi tanks lost during the war: 3,700 out of 4,280 in inventory.

Number of U.S. Carrier Battle Groups on station: 6.

Coalition POWs taken during the war: 26.

Iraqi POWs taken during the war: 70,000+.

U.S. combat related deaths: 147

Iraqi military deaths: 100,000+.

Ground war duration: 100 hours.

The U.S. has done it once and we can do it again. That, Supreme Leader, is a glimpse into your future if you so choose.  It is up to you. The message to you articulated in this memo is not a “threat”, it Is a “promise”. From this day forward, your relationship with your forward deployed terrorist organizations and various militia’s must not include offensive military actions or training them for military actions or financing them to further their offensive actions or providing them with military equipment to carry out military actions or assisting them in planning for military actions.  Cease being a sponsor of world-wide terrorism, cease being a destabilizing force throughout the Middle East.

 You, Supreme Leader, must understand that, from this moment forward,  one more Hamas rocket into Israel or one more missile by Hizballah into Israel or one more drone from Houthis into the Red Sea shipping lanes or into Saudi oil production areas or one more attack on U.S. anti-terrorist forces throughout the Middle East, you will be personally responsible for initiation of Coalition ground-force operations inside Iran and the mayhem resulting from it.  We are not doing this to the great Iranian people, we are doing it for them.

You may import food, medicine, medical equipment for humanitarian purposes after the supplies have been inspected by Coalition force members.

We, the leaders of the following listed Coalition nations, hereby pledge our willingness and equipment to fulfilling the Middle East Embargo Coalition commitment.

In alphabetical order: (for example)

Australia, Brazil, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Finland, Germany, India, Israil, Italy, Japan, Jordan, Kenya, Mexico, Morocco, Netherlands, Norway, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, United Arab Emirates, United States of America, United Kingdom.

End of the memorandum to Iran’s Supreme Leader. Copy furnished to the world.

Note to President Biden: 

President Biden, you and VP Harris are in fact complicit (“association or participation in a wrongful act”) in the on-going wars in the Middle East.  Knowing that Iran is the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism, knowing that Iran has been and continues to finance, arm and encourage thousands of rocket and missile attacks against Israeli civilian targets, and knowing that Iran’s Supreme Leader has for decades publicly declared his objective to destroy Israel; in spite of all that knowledge you have orchestrated a policy of appeasement towards Iran for the past 3 ½  years.  By lifting sanctions, you have allowed Iran to develop the financial strength to train, arm and encourage Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi to put the entire Middle East on a path towards WW III.  

And in the first four months of the Israeli/Hamas war, Iran-backed terrorist groups and militias attacked U.S. and allied forces stationed in the Middle East over 150 times, killing three and wounded dozens without a U.S. response from our Commander in Chief, you.

That, Mr. President is your legacy.

A WAY AHEAD:

Neither Biden nor Harris have demonstrated the leadership skills or credibility to initiate the Middle East Embargo Coalition force described above. This then is a recommendation that, if elected, President Trump do the above beginning on 20 January, 2025.

Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO EXECUTION, a book for leaders, FIX THE SYSTEMS, TRANSFORM AMERICA as well as the author of a blog WeThePeopleSpeaking.com