The world is frantically searching for answers to the question, what to do about Iran? The discussions seem to quickly turn into a debate about military options; who will/should do “it”, what military actions will be best/possible, when to strike, where to strike, why course of action A is better than others and how to strike (conventional munitions, nuclear weapons, drones, missiles, manned aircraft, etc.).
Every day there seems to be a new version of the above. Perhaps they all miss the mark. Let’s begin by dissecting the problem.
FACTS BEARING ON THE PROBLEM:
- Iran has the 3rd largest world reserves of oil and the 2nd largest reserves of gas.
Iran is exporting more oil than at any time in the past six years, around 3 million barrels per day, giving its economy a $35 billion-a-year boost,
The Iranians have mastered the art of sanctions circumvention and thereby created an increase of 20 % oil production over the last 12 months and will continue to grow throughout 2024, currently averaging about 3.2 million barrels per day.
2. Since 1984 Iran has been designated “the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism.” Tehran played a major role in forming Hezbollah and helping it conduct attacks in Lebanon, including the 1983 bombings of the U.S. Marine barracks and embassy, which together killed more than 300 people.
3. For four decades the Iranian leaders have consistently articulated their twofold objectives; “destruction of Israel and “death to America”.
4. Iran recently demonstrated their force-projection capability by launching over 300 drones and missiles in a single failed attack against Israel.
5. The UN is a toothless bureaucracy and in its current configuration worthless with respect to their mission, “to achieve and maintain international security.”
6. The Trump administration renewed UN sanctions on Iran and enforced them. Iran’s foreign currency reserves fell from $128 billion in 2015 to $15 billion in 2019,
7. During the Trump administration, Iran’s capabilities and options were reduced and the U.S. was gaining ground in Middle East countries’ acceptance of Israel’s right to exist and prosper as a friendly neighbor.
8. For the Biden administration it has been three years of appeasement. Biden has rewarded the Ayatollah to the tune of about $100 billion; that is, massive revenue from the non-enforcement of U.S. oil sanctions over three years, a $6 billion ransom payment and a $10 billion sanctions waiver.
9. Tehran has used its proxy army of more than a dozen militias and terror groups across the Middle East with outposts around the world to help foment instability, carry out attacks, and expand the scope of the Islamic Revolution.
10. Iran has contributed hundreds of millions of dollars on training and equipping Hamas and Hizballah terrorist organizations in the past few years. In Yemen, Iran has provided a wide range of weapons, training, advanced equipment such as unmanned aerial systems, and other support to Houthi militants, who engaged in hundreds of attacks against regional targets in Saudi Arabia and are now endangering world shipping in the Red Sea. When Trump took office, he put the Houthi organization on the world terrorist list. Biden, immediately took them off the terrorist list for no reason other than to undo a Trump initiative.
11. Currently, the U.S. has about 4,000 troops deployed throughout the Middle East. Since 7 October, 2023 there have been over 150 Iran-sponsored attacks on these soldiers. In January three U.S. soldiers were killed and 40 others injured when an Iran-backed militia struck their base in Jordan.
12. NUCLEAR WEAPONS: Periodically since 2021 various sources have speculated that Iran could possibly produce a nuclear weapon within “weeks”. Do they now have one? No one knows or they are afraid to tell. But the bottom line is that IRAN CANNOT BE TRUSTED WITH A NUCLEAR WEAPON. This Coalition concept of getting Iran’s attention can also be used on the nuclear issue.
CONCLUSIONS FROM THE ABOVE:
- Erase oil and gas exports from their economic equation and Iran would become basically a poor country.
- Iran’s land-force military capability is of little concern in the larger context of their intent to destroy Israel and death to America.
- Iran has been, is currently and will continue to be THE problem in the Middle East and for the past three years the Biden Administration has supported that destabilization, thereby threatening Israel, threatening world-wide shipping lanes and de facto supported Iran’s soon-to-be nuclear capability.
Given the above information and conclusions, we can now more clearly define the problem with Iran. Without gas and oil exports, Iran is basically a poor nation that would be unable to support terrorist organization with hundreds of millions of dollars in funding, training and equipment. With their billions of dollars from oil and gas exports, Iran is a world-wide threat to international stability and security.
Simply stated, the problem is that for four decades Iran has been allowed to build a force projection capability consisting of Iran-trained, equipped and led terrorist organizations operating outside Iran’s borders. Take away Iran’s ability to financially support those forces and they will no longer be a significant conventional threat to Middle East stability.
The intent of this essay is to get the current administration off its collective butt, cool off the armed conflict in the Middle East, and get the attention of the Iranian Ayatollah who feels comfortable blowing off criticism from the remainder of the world.
BOTTOM LINE:
We need to stop thinking about 12 Iran-supported terrorist organizations as independent operators and begin referring to them as forward-deployed elements of the greater Iran military establishment. Forward deploying forces is not a new concept. For example, the U.S. has had forward air and land forces on European soil continuously since WW II and in South Korea since the armistice was signed in 1952.
Accepting that Hamas, Hizballah, Houthis and militias in Iraq and Syria are an active and essential part of Iran’s military efforts in the Middle East leads us to the conclusion that, in fact, Iran attacked Israel on 7 October 2023, just as in a bold move they tried and failed miserably to attack Israel directly with drones and missiles on 13 April, 2024.
Direct action needs to be taken against Iran and the UN is incapable of leading such an effort.
Course of action A is to take the fight directly to Iran with an American-led coalition of nations.
We know that an American-led Coalition is possible because we did it in Desert Storm,1991 against Saddam Hussein after Iraqi forces invaded and occupied Kuwait in 1990. Call it Operation Middle East Freedom, 2024
PHASE ONE: BUILD THE ORGANIZATION AND DATA BASE.
Use the existing G7 as the base of the coalition. The Group of Seven is an intergovernmental political and economic forum consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States; additionally, the European Union is a “non-enumerated member”. Invite all other nations to join the coalition with air assets and missiles or just in name only.
Define the end-state. Take away Iran’s ability to support their forward-deployed terrorist organizations that are destabilizing world-wide peace and stability.
Immediately begin a detailed intelligence gathering operation using the capabilities of all coalition members. Emphasis will be on Humint, human intelligence resources to accomplish the following:
- Determine the exact location of every Iranian air defense asset.
- Determine the exact location of every combat aircraft and helicopter.
- Determine the address of every facility that is engaged in the production of weapons, drones, military gear and ammunition.
- Build a data base of everything associated with production, transportation and exporting of gas and oil.
PHASE TWO: FORWARD DEPLOYMENT
Move the coalition force to Saudi Arabia; just as we did in 1991.
PHASE THREE: EXECUTE
The intent of Operation Middle East Freedom is to use airpower to minimize Iran’s 40-year reign as the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism. No boots on the ground at this time for Operation Middle East Freedom.
FIRST STRIKE, unannounced, will destroy all of Iran’s air defense assets; command and control and air defense weapons systems. Their 2024 inventory of combat aircraft is 219 plus 126 helicopters; destroy them on the ground with air and missile munitions.
SECOND STRIKE: Take down their capability to export millions of barrels of crude oil per day and thereby reduce financing to support forward-deployed terrorists and militias. This strike will include a 2-hour warning to Iran’s leaders to immediately remove all civilians from every area that is engaged in any activity associated with drilling, production, transport and export of gas and oil.
Three years ago, Iran opened its first oil terminal in the Gulf of Oman, a move that allows it to avoid using the narrow Strait of Hormuz shipping route that is vulnerable to being shut down. Take out the pipeline and terminal capable of handling 1 million barrels per day of export oil.
When the second-strike warning is issued, ensure that it is available to the whole world. Take away Iran’s ability to claim the coalition targeted civilians and caused some ridiculous number of causalities.
THIRD STRIKE: Iran has become a major producer of weapons, missiles, ammunition and drones to supply their forward deployed terrorist organization. Use aerial attacks to destroy every weapons production site; some are undoubtedly deep underground.
Iran’s military-industrial complex has been growing rapidly since the mid-1990s. Today, it reportedly exports weapons to fifty-seven countries, many in conflict areas, in violation of UNSCR 1747.
Iranian military equipment suitable for regional proxies and other customers includes but is not limited to small arms and ammunition, explosively formed penetrators (EFPs), communications equipment, night-vision goggles, thermal scopes, high-power sniper rifles, long-range mortars, man-portable air-defense systems and artillery rockets.
DRONES: Iran’s military-industrial complex has produced thousands of advanced drones used for surveillance, reconnaissance, and combat against U.S. forces as well as American allies in the Middle East. The drones, unmanned aerial vehicles, have become one of the greatest assets of the Iranian-backed “Axis of Resistance”, a network of militias in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.
As of January 2024, Tehran has exported drones or drone technology to at least five countries on four continents as well as to at least seven proxy militias in the Middle East.
Drones pose a continuing threat to Middle East security because of their low cost, widespread availability, and potential deniability, since their point of origin can be disguised.
Drones to Russia: October, 2022 the Ukrainian Defense Minister announced, “Approximately 300 Iranian drones remain in the Russian arsenal and they plan to buy several thousand more.”
MISSILES: Iran’s missile proliferation efforts have enormous destabilizing potential for the region. Iran has about 20 different ballistic missile models as well as cruise missiles with delivery ranges up to 2,000 Kilometers. Nine different Iranian missile models can reach Israel.
PHASE FOUR, SANCTIONS:
Every nation in the coalition will agree to participate in the most severe sanctions imposed on Iran that have any impact on rebuilding their gas/oil export business, on rebuilding their military industrial capabilities and on their ability to transfer financing to any of their forward deployed terrorist organizations and militias.
MESSAGE TO IRAN’S SUPREME LEADER AYATOLLAH ALL KHOMENEI: Hi is the most powerful figure in Iran; the country’s supreme leader since 1989. He is head of state and commander-in-chief. He has authority over the national police and the “morality police.” The Ayatollah also controls the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps which is in charge of internal security, and its volunteer wing, the Basiji Resistance Force which has repeatedly quelled internal dissent.
Simultaneously with the beginning of the FIRST STRIKE, this official Coalition message will be delivered to the Ayatollah and also publicized to the world.
Date and time🙁as the first strike begins)
Memorandum for: Ayatollah All Khamenei
Subject: This strike is the beginning of Operation Middle East Freedom. The Coalition of (number) nations intends to take away your capability to continue to be “the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism.”
There is no intent to cause military or civilian casualties.
In future strikes you will be warned at least two hours prior to the strike. When the message announcing the 2-hour dispersal alert to you, the coalition will also use all available communications means to inform your citizens because we do not trust you to protect them. Any reports of citizen casualties, if they are true, is on you and the world will know that.
Ayatollah, there are three circumstances explained next that will cause the coalition to escalate the operation to include ground operations.
CONDITION ONE FOR ESCALATION:
The coalition is taking the same position of that practiced by NATO nations over the past eight decades. That is, Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty states: “The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them . . . shall be considered an attack against them all.”
The point being, the Coalition is hereby advising you that if there is any counter attack, including cyber, conventional military, manned air, drones of any kind, missiles, rockets or nuclear, against any Coalition member from this moment forward by your forces in Iran or any of the terrorist or militias forwarded deployed that you support in any way will result in an immediate response from the Coalition.
The response will be to immediately transition from an air-only operation to an all-out air-ground operation. The Ground operation’s intent will be to accomplish the following:
- All military forces and every associated facility and military item will be dissolved and/or destroyed.
- Military forces resisting the Coalition ground force will become casualties or captured. POWs will be incarcerated.
- Any military leader of a company-level sized force or larger may surrender in-mass if every person in the unit comes forward with their uniforms and every piece of equipment associated with their military duties. The equipment will be destroyed and the personnel released to go home.
- Any individual military member may of their own choosing appear at a designated site with uniforms and equipment, surrender his/her allegiance to your military and be released to go home.
- Within hours or days, you will have no military force or military equipment.
- Your government will cease to exist.
- The coalition will provide all support necessary for a new government of-the-people and by-the-people to be selected and seated.
- The general nature of the Iranian society will include equal opportunities for all men and women alike in education, property ownership, general rights and privileges, professional careers in law, medicine, teaching, government, etc.
THE SECOND CONDITION that will cause the Coalition to escalate to ground operations described above has to do with your intent to become a nuclear power. If it is determined that you have (1) completed development a nuclear weapon or (2) that you have purchased or bartered for and have on hand all the necessary elements to produce a nuclear weapon within days or (3) if you have purchased a completed nuclear weapon, the Coalition ground forces will engage and take down that entire nuclear capability and destroy every associated facility you have hidden underground or inside mountains.
THE THIRD CONDITION that will cause the Coalition to escalate to ground operations described above has to do with your barbaric dehumanizing of women in a modern world.
During the late 20th and early 21st centuries in Iran, women’s rights have been severely restricted, compared with those in most developed nations. The World Economic Forum in 2017 ranked Iran 140, out of 144 countries, for gender parity. In 2017, in Iran, females comprised just 19% of the paid workforce,
Ayatollah, as you are well aware, you formed up the “Morality Police Force” in 1979 and still control them today.
While Iran has reported that the morality police force was abolished in 2022, the same day Iran launched its first ever direct attack on Israel,13 April, 2024, you ordered your morality police force in several cities to take to the streets to arrest women accused of flouting its strict Islamic dress code.
Under Iran’s sharia, or Islamic law, women are obliged to cover their hair and wear long, loose-fitting clothes. Offenders face public rebuke, fines or arrest and reeducation centers.
The laws have become a political flashpoint since protests over the death of a young woman in the custody of the country’s “morality police” in 2022 spiraled into the worst political turmoil since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Women who are too casually dressed are frequently arrested for “inciting public opinion”, sometimes tortured, sometimes killed and often detained in re-education centers.
Ayatollah, this rabid discrimination against women is unprecedented even in neighboring Muslim countries.
This barbaric behavior must be stopped and it is up to you to do so. The morality police force must once-and-for-all be completely disbanded.
Act immediately, the Coalition is watching and waiting for positive actions.
At this point, Ayatollah, you are possibly concluding that this Coalition is likely to be an impossible undertaking. We are telling you a coalition effort is certainly within the art of the possible. You will recall in 1990 Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi forces attacked, defeated and occupied Kuwait. Many believed it was a stepping-stone move towards the Saudi Arabian oil fields. In January 1991 a 38-nation coalition attacked and defeated Saddam Hussien’s vaunted “mother of all armies” in just six weeks of air and ground operations. Please pay attention to these numbers which tell a powerful story.
Coalition: 39 countries, of which 28 contributed combat forces
Force size: Approximately 670,000 troops from 28 countries, 425,000 of which were from the United States.
Coalition air component size: 2,250 combat aircraft, 1,800 of which were American.
Coalition airlift: 509,129 passengers and 594,730 tons of cargo carried.
Coalition sorties flown: 100,000+.
Aerial refueling: 15,434 sorties and dispensed 110.2 million gallons of fuel.
Number of dumb bombs dropped: 210,000.
Number of smart bombs dropped: 9,342.
30mm depleted uranium rounds fired by A-10 manned aircraft (tank-killers): 782,514.
Duration of air campaign before ground invasion: 39 days.
Iraqi tanks lost during the war: 3,700 out of 4,280 in inventory.
Number of U.S. Carrier Battle Groups on station: 6.
Coalition POWs taken during the war: 26.
Iraqi POWs taken during the war: 70,000+.
U.S. combat related deaths: 147
Iraqi military deaths: 100,000+.
Ground war duration: 100 hours.
That, Ayatollah, is a glimpse into your future if you so choose. It is up to you. The message to you articulated in this memo is not a “threat”, it Is a “promise”. From this day forward, your relationship with your forward deployed terrorist organizations and various militia’s must not include offensive military actions or training them for military actions or financing them to further their offensive actions or providing them with military equipment to carry out military actions or assisting them in planning for military actions. Cease being a sponsor of world-wide terrorism, cease being a destabilizing force throughout the Middle East. You, Ayatollah, must understand that one more Hamas rocket into Israel or one more missile by Hizballah into Israel or one more drone from Houthis into the Red Sea shipping lanes or into Saudi oil production areas or one more attack on U.S. anti-terrorist forces in the Middle East and you will be personally responsible for initiation of phase two Coalition ground operations inside Iran and the mayhem resulting from it. We are not doing this to the great Iranian people, we are doing it for them.
We, the leaders of the following listed Coalition nations, hereby pledge our willingness and equipment to fulfilling the Coalition commitment.
In alphabetical order: (for example)
Australia, Brazil, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Finland, Germany, India, Israil, Italy, Japan, Jordan, Kenya, Mexico, Morocco, Netherlands, Norway, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, United Arab Emirates, United States of America, United Kingdom.
End of the memorandum to the Ayatollah.
Note to President Biden:
- During your first three years in office, you have played nice with Iran allowing them to build a sophisticated military-industrial complex and establish an extensive weapons-export capability.
- You have provided the Ayatollah with billions of dollars used to support terrorist activities.
- You have expanded their training, equipping and funding of active terrorist organizations and militias, thereby destabilizing the Middle East.
- You have softened the previously imposed sanctions, particularly on gas and oil exports, to enrich Iran to embellish its across-the-board destabilizing activities culminating on a long-promise of attack on Israel.
- And in the first four months of the Israeli/Hamas war, Iran-backed terrorist groups and militias have attacked U.S. and allied forces stationed in the Middle East over 150 times, killing three and wounded dozens without a U.S. response from our Commander in Chief, you.
- That, Mr. President is your legacy.
A WAY AHEAD:
- Get the above information (readers please help) into the hands of a senior official in the State Department, DOD and the National Security Advisor’s staff. Initially handle it as close-hold and eyes-only in order to keep it from leaking from the Government into the media as an official action.
- Get President Biden involved.
- The President should send the Secretaries of State and Defense to Saudi Arabia to meet with Mohammed Bin Salman and get him on board to accept the Coalition onto Saudi soil.
- The President should call each G-7 nations and ask them to sign on to a close-hold eyes-only probable campaign. Aks them to help expand the Coalition membership.
- Set the operation’s timeline.
- The President will offer up our entire air cargo fleet to rapidly deploy the Coalition’s forces into the Middle East and then our entire air-refueling fleet in support of Coalition air-ops execution. See again the amazing numbers from Operate Desert Storm in 1991.
- Select the best air component commander for the Coalition; it may be other than a U.S. officer. Select the best ground component commander, who also may not be a U.S. soldier. Select the best overall Coalition Commander, hopefully a U.S. leader.
- Execute soonest and make the world a more safe and secure place.
Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO EXECUTION, a book for leaders, FIX THE SYSTEMS, TRANSFORM AMERICA as well as the author of a blog WeThePeopleSpeaking.com