“IT’S THE ECONOMY STUPID”

It’s the economy stupid“, that famous phrase from the Clinton presidential campaign seems to rear its head with some application every four years. As I see it, in the 2024 campaign it could be used by Biden speaking down to his subjects and then going on to tell us all how great Bidenomics is and how it is, “building an economy from the middle out and the bottom up.” To me, using that interpretation, Biden will be telling We-The-People in the Middle Class and below economic strata that, “Bidenomics is working” and you all are better off than you were four years ago. More on that at the end.

POLLING DATA:

Any person, particularly those subject to the polling questions, will normally have a lot of negative things to say about polling results that are contrary to what that person believes. Those less skeptical and with an open mind will generally look at polling results and conclude that, while it could be a little off, generally it tells a believable story. That is, if you look at enough polling data over a protracted period and there tends to be a consistent theme, then we can conclude that the story might be about right.

August 17, 2023, The Associated Press published a poll telling us that while President Joe Biden has devoted the past several weeks to promoting the positive impacts of his policies, his efforts have yet to meaningfully register with the public. Only 36% of U.S. adults approve of Biden’s handling of the economy and he is at his lowest overall approval rating of 40%.
Over 60% of voters disapprove of President Biden’s foreign policy actions, according to a new poll from NBC News.
Even though Biden has been on a 3-year effort to buy votes by paying off college tuition debt, 70% of voters ages 18 to 34 disapprove of how Biden is handling the Israeli war.
Biden’s approval among small business owners stood at only 30 percent in a November 2023 CNBC survey with feedback from more than 2,000 small business owners.
Americans have lost confidence that their children will be better off than they are, according to a new poll. Nearly 80% of respondents said they “do not feel confident” in their children’s future.
September 15, 2023 Recent polling data suggested 63% of Americans are negative on the US economy, while 45% said their financial situation had deteriorated in the last two years.

Conclusions: There is a trend there and the American people are not buying what the White House is selling.

BIDENOMICS AND INFLATION:

In any discussion of inflation, keep in mind that the wealthy among us are not overly concerned if the cost of a dozen eggs or a loaf of bread doubles. The concern is for the masses who are hit the hardest; those in the lower income brackets because “poverty is a measure of how many families are unable to afford basic necessities for life.”

The One-hundred-year Inflation Rates table,1914-2023, published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, paints the inflation picture:

January 2021, Biden was sworn in with an inflation rate or 1.4 %; the lowest since 1998.
In his first 60 days in office the inflation rate nearly doubled to 2.6%.
In 90 days, it had tripled to 4.2%. By June 2021 it had nearly quadrupled to 5.4%. At that point, July 2021, Biden delivered a national address on inflation saying, “inflation is temporary and expected after the COVID-19 pandemic” (blame, blame, blame). Biden argued that about 60 percent of price increases were caused by “transitory effects” linked to COVID-19, such as shortages of lumber and semiconductors, and aren’t a sign of substantial long-term inflation linked to deficit spending.
2021 inflation was not temporary, it kept going up and by the end of his first year, January 2022, the inflation rate was 7.5%; from 1.4% to 7.5%, an increase of 436%.
It continued to rise in 2022 finally peaking in June at 9.1%; the highest inflation rate since February, 1981.

INFLATION DEFINED:

Econ 101, a simple, easy to understand definition; “Inflation occurs when too much money is chasing too few goods”. Let’s explore both elements of the equation in time and place.

Three critical dates for Covid relief legislation:

March, 2020: The pandemic was in high gear. The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, also known as the CARES Act, was a $2.2 trillion economic stimulus bill signed into law by President Trump on March 27, 2020, in response to the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. CARES Act, the largest fiscal stimulus in modern history, focused on these primary policy goals: increasing consumer spending through direct cash payments to households; providing liquidity to small-and medium-sized firms, keeping workers on payroll through the Paycheck Protection Program and providing an extended safety net to millions of Americans by temporarily expanding the unemployment insurance system. This program provided critical resources to individuals and businesses during the most critical period of the pandemic.

December, 2020: The COVID-related Tax Relief Act of 2020, enacted in late December 2020, authorized additional payments of up to $600 per adult for eligible individuals and up to $600 for each qualifying child under age 17.

The relief packages in March and December, 2020 were successful, bringing covid relief to millions, on target and on time. The result was that about the time Biden was sworn in, the economy was on the rise; businesses were reopening, those laid off were reentering the labor force, Covid cases were decreasing and things were looking up.

And then, not to be upstaged by Trump in give-away programs, Biden’s Democrats quickly produced the American Rescue Plan even though the country had already been “rescued” by the 2020 relief legislation.

March, 2021: The $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan bill included $1,400 payments to about 85% of Americans, $360 billion for state and local governments, $242 billion in expanded unemployment benefits, among other things.

Simultaneously in 2020 and 2021 there was a supply crisis; everything from lumber to refrigerators to microchips. Tens of billions of dollars’ worth of goods were backed up off the U.S. coasts in scores of cargo ships.

And there you have it, the perfect inflation storm; too much money in the hands of consumers chasing too few goods. “Biden’s The American Rescue Plan was far larger than the economy could support,” said Marc Goldwein with the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

By the time Biden’s inflation generating rescue plan went into effect, the country was already reeling from a previous Biden inflation-generating decision as follows:

BIDEN AND FOSSIL FUEL:

January 2021, without warning, without consultation with Congress, without a White House team in place, without discussion, without We-The-People having a clue, Biden signed an Executive Order that placed

an indefinite “pause on new oil and natural gas leases on public lands” until a comprehensive review on the climate change impacts can be completed. During 2020 crude oil production on public lands was about 2.9 million barrels per day or about 25% of total barrels per day.

Then in November, 2021, Biden’s Build Back Better Bill contained a long list of increases in federal royalties and fees, plus new fees, new taxes, and barriers to leasing in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, the Pacific, Atlantic, and eastern Gulf of Mexico which added millions of dollars in operating costs, pricing out U.S. production.

Here is what Biden’s actions did to diesel fuel prices:

January 2021: $2.68 per gallon, national average. About $800 to fill the tank of a long-haul 18-wheeler tractor trailer which gets about ten miles per gallon.
March 2021: $3.15 per gallon
November 2021: $3.75
March 2022: $5.11
June 2022: $5.75; a 215% increase since Biden took office 17 months earlier. About $1700 to fill the long-haul fuel tank.
September 2023: $4.37

Because of Biden-induced inevitable rising fuel prices negatively impacting everyone in America, Biden needed to take action to slow down the rate of rising fuel prices before the 2022 elections. First, he pleaded with Saudi Arabia, Iran, Venezuela and other oil-producing nations, some unfriendly to the United States, to increase their supply of oil. They blew him off.

This then prompted Biden to remove about 200 million barrels, more than 40% of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, leaving the stockpile at its lowest levels since 1984, and thereby putting the nation’s energy security at considerable risk. Considering that the U.S. daily consumption of oil is about 19 million barrels; that’s about 2 1/2 week’s supply from the Strategic reserve. Given the mess the world is in today and the U.S. vulnerability to terrorists’ attacks on U.S. soil right now, Biden has set the stage for a potential national security calamity.

These actions against the oil industry to appease the far-left wing of the Democrat Party caused an historic shift from net energy exporter in 2020, to net importer in 2021. The U.S. finally, after a 50-year effort, achieved energy independence in 2020 only to be squandered by Biden’s actions. America’s total bill for its imported crude oil purchases accelerated by 47.8% from 2021 to 2022. In 2022 the U.S. net imports of crude oil was about 2.7 million barrels per day. Oil imports from Venezuela, previously halted in 2019, were resumed under Biden’s sanctions relief in January 2023 and increased to 153,000 barrels per day in July 2023.

YOU NEED A NEW HAND SAW; a flat piece of metal about 2-3 inches wide at the front, tapering back to about 4 inches wide at the handle, a single set of teeth the entire length of about 2 feet.

Facts bearing on the new saw issue:

There is a lot of very heavy machinery involved in mining iron ore using huge amounts of diesel fuel.
Ore is transported to a processing plant by diesel-guzzling trucks and trains.
The ore is transposed into sheet metal and moved by truck to a warehouse.
A tool-manufacturing company orders the sheet metal; back on a truck to a tool manufacturing facility.
The new saw is sent by truck or train to their product distribution warehouses.
Lowes Hardware orders 500 saws that will be transported by truck to the Lowes regional warehouses.
The local Lowes Hardware orders 5 saws transported by truck from the warehouse to the store.
You get in your car, go to Lowes and purchase your new saw, thinking WOW, this seems expensive.

Moral of the story; every object you purchase has, at some time, been on a train or in multiple trucks. You, the consumer pays all of those transportation costs and when the price of diesel fuel increases from $2.68 to $5.75, you pay an inflation-related price. And, by the way, the wooden handle on your new saw that you purchased in Miami Florida was, a couple months ago, part of a tree in Montana.

This is Bidenomics inflation, he made it, he has sustained it, he has negatively impacted the lives of every American and he must be held accountable by We-The-People.

INFLATION, WHAT IT DOES:

Too many Americans are being forced to choose between paying for groceries and heating their house.

A December 2022 study from The Heritage Foundation determined that Americans had lost around $7,100 in spending power since Biden’s inauguration in January 2021.

November, 2023, according to a Lending Club report, 60% of adults said they are living paycheck to paycheck.

A Federal Reserve report last week shows that credit card debt climbed to a record high in the third quarter of 2023, surging nearly 5% from the previous quarter and leaving a growing share of borrowers late on payments.

The federal government reported November, 2022 that personal savings under Biden have fallen off a cliff. The personal saving rate, meaning personal saving as a percentage of disposable income, fell to 3.3%. Adjusted for inflation, savings are down 88% from their 2020 peak and 61% lower than before the pandemic.

HOW TO STOP RISING INFLATION RATES:

The good news is rising inflation can be slowed. The bad news is that the method involves rising interest rates.

The average 30-year fixed rate reached an all-time record low of 2.65% in January 2021 when Biden took office before surging to 7.79% in October 2023, according to Freddie Mac.

Hundreds of thousands of small-to-large businesses have had to delay their growth plans because of the cost of borrowing money.

Interest costs on the national debt soared to $659 billion in fiscal year 2023. That’s up $184 billion, or 39%, from FY 2022 and is nearly double what it was in fiscal year 2020. Taxpayers spend nearly $2 billion every day just on interest on the national debt. According to the Congressional Budget Office’s long-term projections, interest on the debt is expected to hit $1.4 trillion by fiscal year 2033.

BIDENOMICS IN EVERY HOUSEHOLD:

Prices for electricity are 24.73% higher in 2023 than in 2020.
Prices for food are 22.1% higher in 2023 than in 2020.
Heating oil, April 2020, $.86; October 2022, $5.72. A 565% increase.
Poverty: September 2023, the Census Bureau announced that the U.S. poverty rate rose to 12.4 % in 2022 from 7.8 % in 2021, the largest one-year jump on record. Poverty among children more than doubled, to 12.4%. As illustrated above, family necessities such as food, electricity and energy will hit low-income families the hardest.

INFLATION REDUCTION ACT:

Help is on the way??? Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 into law on Aug. 16th.

According to the Penn Wharton Budget Model, there’s low confidence the legislation will have any impact on inflation.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the bill will barely make a dent on inflation in the near term and could even nudge it upward.

Biden told us, “After all, this bill cuts costs for families to help reduce inflation at the kitchen table.”

Who do you believe?

ANOTHER BIDENOMICS STAB IN THE HEART OF TAXPAYERS:

Biden has proposed that the corporate tax rate should increase from 21% to 28%, plus a15% minimum tax would apply to corporate book income. Additionally American corporations’ foreign income generally would be subject to a tax of 21%.

When will he get it through his head that corporations DO NOT PAY TAXES. Oh yes, they eventually write the check but where did they get the money? When any company makes a product there are costs; raw materials, transportation, plant operations, wages/salaries, advertising and tax. AND YOU AND I PAY FOR ALL OF IT WHEN WE BUY THE PRODUCT!! Corporate tax is just another cost of producing the product. The company’s profit is added on and that becomes the sales price. By taxing the corporation and thereby raising the price, the U.S. becomes less competitive in the global market.

While 60% of American households are already living from paycheck to paycheck, they can look forward to paying “their fair share” of corporate tax increases which will be added to everything they purchase.

BIDENOMICS SUMMAY TO DATE:

Real disposable income, DOWN 7.5%
Home ownership affordability, DOWN 37.3%
Credit card debt, UP 36;2%
Monthly savings, DOWN 81.4%

BOTTOM LINE:

In the first paragraph I theorized that there are perhaps two applications of the Clinton quote from 1992, “It’s the economy stupid.” The first application is that, in the 2024 campaign, it could be used by Biden speaking down to his subjects and then going on to tell us all how great Bidenomics is and how it is, “building an economy from the middle out and the bottom up.” To me, by using that interpretation, Biden will be telling all those in the Middle Class and below economic strata that, “Bidenomics is working” and you all are better off than you were four years ago.

A second application, and one that seems more fitting today is for those in the Middle Class and below economic strata to speak in the voting booth, saying to their president, “It’s the economy stupid.”

FINALLY, IT’S TIME FOR THE “TO” AND “FOR” QUESTIONS:

What has Biden done “to” We-The-People in his first three years in office? See the answer in all of the above.

What has Biden done “for” We-The-People in his first three years in office? Please put together your own list; that one is in my too-hard box.

Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of two books, Vision to Execution and Fix the Systems, Transform America as well as the author of a blog, WeThePeopleSpeaking.com