Month: September 2023

Results from a 2023 Maryland state math exam reveals that 13, which is 40%, of Baltimore’s High Schools did not have a single math-proficient student. ZERO.

We have heard ad-nauseum about the devastating impact on education during the Covid pandemic.  However, these 2023 results are not a Covid problem; Baltimore has actually improved test scores over the post-pandemic period.  Six years ago, in 2017, Project Baltimore produced a similar report of test scores and found 13 city schools had zero students proficient in math. Many of the schools from 2017 are also on the 2023 list.

Last school year, Baltimore City Schools received $1.6 billion from taxpayers, the most ever. The district also received $799 million in Covid relief funding from the federal government. This is not a funding issue.

BALTIMORE IS NOT ALONE; DATA FROM ACROSS THE NATION:

• 20% of U.S. students do not graduate high school.
• Every year, over 1.2 million students drop out of high school in the U.S.; that’s a student every 26 seconds, 7,000 every school day; thereby creating a linkage to a life of crime and/or welfare.
• About 25% of high school freshmen fail to graduate from high school on time.
• Almost 2,000 high schools across the U.S. graduate less than 60% of their students. Those “dropout factories” account for over 50% of the students who leave school every year. One in six U.S. students attend a dropout factory.  One in three minority students (32%) attend a dropout factory compared to 8% of white students.
• Of those graduating high school, over 20% are unable to pass the test to enter the U.S. military because they are functionally illiterate.
• In the U.S. high school dropouts commit about 75% of the crimes.
• About 70% of prison inmates do not have a high school diploma.

“PROFICIENCY”, WHAT IS IT?

The National Assessment of Education Progress, NAEP, results provide educators, policymakers, elected officials, and parents with invaluable information regarding how our children are doing in school.  NAEP measures the academic performance of the nation’s students by testing 4^th and 8^th grade students every 2 years and 12^th grade every 4 years.

NAEP reports on student achievement/capability in three categories: Basic, Proficient and Advanced.

• Students performing at NAEP Basic level have only partial mastery of fundamentals. These students are failing.

• Students performing at the NAEP Proficient level have demonstrated some competency over challenging subject matter.

• Students performing at the NAEP Advanced level have shown superior performance.

Most recent NAEP national data on math proficiency.  Baltimore is not alone.  

4^th grade, 67% are below Proficiency level and almost 1/3 of them are even below Basic level.

8^th grade, 75% are below Proficiency level and more than half are even below Basic level.

12^th grade, 76% are below Proficiency level and more than half are even below Basic level.

CONCLUSIONS FROM NATIONAL TEST RESULTS:

Our nation is in serious trouble and the light at the end of the tunnel is unfortunately an on-coming train.  The U.S. is currently getting an F in education results. The high percentages below Proficiency level in 4^th grade do not improve through middle and high school. 

SOME THOUGHTS ON A PROBLEM STATEMENT: 

My sense is that there is too much emphasis on End of Grade, EOG, testing. “Let’s wait and see how we do on EOG tests”; “We are hoping for a better result this year from EOG tests.”

The problem with those courses of action is that when we don’t do well on EOG tests, it is already too late to do anything about it.  Proficiency deficiencies just get passed on and, of course, compounded the next year. It is a formula that will guarantee failure on through middle and high school and leads our country to the 7,000 dropouts every school day.  If the system is fixated on EOG results that is a big part of the problem and explains why our education system is on the downward path to a nation of functional illiteracy.

The focus the past two years has been to correct the Covid down-curve.  But, generally speaking we have not sufficiently defined the problem and therefore have no solution going forward.

THE TWO-TIERED PROBLEM:

First tier: The day-to-day education process lets “unproficiency” slip into the system throughout every school year. Those who are in a position to fix it don’t recognize that it is happening or don’t care that it is happening. Or, if they do recognize the daily unproficiency problem, they just do not know what to do about it. Nonproficiency grows, is compounded every year until, at some point, usually in high school, when the student is failing, embarrassed, ridiculed by his/her peers and frequently skipping school they conclude enough is enough; I’m done. The circumstances that led to that drop-out day probably began in 3^rd grade and grew like a cancer getting more pronounced every year.

Second tier: The problem is that we do not have a dynamic, in-place, continuous, immediate-action process of 1) identifying that Billy just got behind and 2) getting Billy immediately caught up with his classmates. We can always hope for better EOG test scores but, as we all know, hope is not a process.

THESIS: 

My thesis is that a good teacher can, at any time during the school year, go through the student roster and separate those who “got it”, are up-to-speed and ready to face the next, more complicated building block on the lesson plan from those who did not get it and will have difficulty going forward if not corrected immediately.  

A WAY AHEAD:

If my problem assessment is correct, we need a comprehensive movement and cannot continue to wing it in the individual schools and classrooms. We need a definable campaign.

Campaign planning is a series of organized actions aimed at accomplishing a stated purpose and typically focused on a path toward an identifiable end-state. 

Without a formal, phased campaign, individual schools (in Baltimore) will wonder off in different directions with no continuity.  Some will prosper. Most will flounder. It is analogous to someone having a half million dollars’ worth of materials piled on their lot and the vision is to build a fabulous dream home; the only thing missing is a blueprint. How is that going to turn out? 

Planning is proactive thinking at another level, a journey not a destination, never perfect (think contingencies) and never final. “No plan survives contact with the enemy.” von Moltke.

Simply stated building a campaign takes us through a series of steps in a logical sequence, all of which should be written down in a formal proposal. Let’s call it a Framework for Action, with emphasis on the word, “action.”

A special note before we begin building the Framework.  This problem cannot be solved by the U.S. Department of Education with their 4,400 bureaucrats and $88 billion budget. Even if they understood the problem, they would undoubtedly let a multi-million-dollar contract to a bunch of psychologists and education “experts” who would, in a couple of years, produce a 500-page document that demands more money, more regulations, more bureaucrats and is not actionable. Ditto for State Departments of Education.  This is a problem that needs to be/can be defined and fixed within each of the 13,452 school districts.

THE PLAYERS; 

The leaders in the education organization are easily identifiable because the organization, in many ways, resembles thousands of other organizations in our society.

First there is the Board of Education analogist to corporate boards with one advantageous difference.  Who is on the Board of Directors at General Motors?  I don’t know and neither do you.  But we know our Board of Education members because we-the-people elected them and we can vote them out.

Second, at the strategic leader, level, there is the CEO, aka the Superintendent of schools. He/she should be the first in the chain of command that has daily responsibilities associated with quality teaching and learning and the Product.

Third, at the operational leader level, there are the vice presidents for academics, aka school Principals.

Finally, at the tactical leader level, there are the First-Line-Leaders, aka teachers, at the point of execution.

The education organization has a clean, simple, uncomplicated chain of command that can/should be more effective than it apparently is. 

BUILDING A FRAMEWORK FOR ACTION:

Identify the problem; without it there is no solution which, I believe is where we generally are today across America. After that just answer these simple questions; who, what, when, where, why and how.

VISION is first out of the Framework tool box: Have a written vision of the end state; a sentence, not a paragraph. Why? “If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there.” Be realistic; there is a fine line between vision and hallucination. Vision defines WHERE the organization is going.

STRATEGY is alignment of assets to their greatest advantage. Strategy is the big picture, the long-pole in the tent. Three rules for strategy:

First, have one.

Second, keep it simple. Subordinates need to see it, understand it, buy in and talk about it. it is convenient to have a short-hand description in a word or phrase, e.g., Innovate and change to be all we can be. Be able to explain it in 50 words; an elevator-brief.

Third, if it’s working, don’t change it.There will be zealots for and against most strategies.

The CEO might say: Our strategy is to turn over every single rock, see what crawls out, change a lot of what we currently do, innovate, identify all best practices, key on excellence in teaching and learning. The centerpiece of our culture will be accountability at every leadership level. K-5 will constitute the main attack.

Comment RE “main attack”.  What I concluded in the above discussion on the problem is that if we don’t get “it” right in K-5, there is no recovery in middle and high school.  A friend of mine who is on the local Board of Education is working the “main attack” issue in our district. Translated, main attack means the three traditional levels of K-12 education, elementary, middle and high school should not be considered equals when it comes to priorities, funding, resourcing, etc. If the main attack is not properly resourced and fails, we’re toast?

Development of the strategy is not a 5-minute process.  Perhaps put together several 2–3-person task forces and assign them to look at the existing culture, consistent shortcomings, strengths, vulnerabilities, potential capabilities, internal and external forces, define the art of the possible, discover what the “A” schools are doing different etc. DO NOT build a pie-in-the-sky unworkable, unrealistic strategy and launch a failed campaign which would play directly into the hands of the I-told-you-so naysayers. Strategy is HOW we are going to get to the end state.

MISSION: State the mission in one sentence. There will be a mission statement at each leadership level with increasing levels of detail from top to bottom. Mission is the beginning of the process of communicating, throughout the entire leadership continuum. It is the launch point.  It is on public display. The measures of merit for a good mission statement are clarity (no ambiguous words) and brevity (a sentence, never a paragraph). Mission flows throughout the organization and becomes relevant and actionable at every level from the Board’s mission, to the Superintendent’s mission, to the Principals’ missions and on to the individual teachers’ mission statements. Mission is WHAT we are all going to do.

The Superintendent’s mission is to change the organization, its culture and inculcate enhanced teaching and learning.

A Principal’s mission might read: Ensure that every teacher is teaching to standard from prepared/approved lesson plans and that they use a teach-test, teach-test technique that identifies students who got behind followed by immediate steps to get them back in a state of proficiency.

A teacher’s mission is to teach to standard using best practices, know when a student falls behind, use immediate communications among the parent/teacher/student trifecta to solve the problem and have everyone at least on a proficient level at year’s end.

There are two types of mission statements and both could be applicable to the education organization.  One use of mission is as described in the above paragraph for any campaign or plan. Secondly, many organizations have a single, unwavering, unchanging, overarching mission statement.  For example, “The mission of the U.S. Army is to fight and win the nation’s wars.”  The value of such a statement is that it provides a rock-solid reference point for everything that follows; training doctrine, fighting doctrine, standards, budget, weapons systems, deployability, etc.

One way to put some day-to-day thinking and action into the “main attack” scenario is to tag an overarching mission statement for the elementary schools.  Put it on the front door; have a big banner hanging in the gym and set K-5 apart from middle and high schools.  When considering resourcing, hiring, standards, teaching, testing, dealing with the parent/teacher/student trifecta etc., all of those issues should stand alone just for K-5.  It follows then that there may need to be a revised mission statement for middle and high school.  The nay-sayers will argue that the school “system” is all one K-12 issue.  They are wrong. For example, The mission of our elementary school system, K-5 is to achieve a proficiency level for all students of at least X% before entry into middle school.

INTENT: None of the above is rocket science but the process puts forward the necessary steps leading to Intent, the most powerful tool available to a leader. Intent characteristics:

• Lets everyone inside their leader’s head.
• Singular possessive, (My intent is to …….)
• Public information, (everyone knows it, talks about it, builds their plan of action from it). Every leader at every level should have a published statement of intent. Measures of merit are brevity (four short paragraphs) and clarity (no ambiguity).

Paragraph one of Intent is a simple description of the end-state at every leader level. For example, a principal’s intent: Right now, the proficiency level of the students we are sending to middle school is unacceptably low; X % proficient.  My intent is for us to improve those proficiency results by at least X% every year until we are consistently sending Y% of our elementary graduates to middle school proficient in every discipline. 

Paragraph two: A brief description of the school’s operation. The overall thrust will be to optimize inspired teaching and learning; every day identify students who are not proficient and have a plan to fix it immediately. My intent is that every teacher is empowered to be all they can be every day. Develop a very strong, consistent, useful student-teacher-parent trifecta. Seek out and try out best practices of your profession and discipline. Self-evaluate and continuously ask yourself; could I have done this or that better? Establish your own best practices and institutionalize them. AAR (after-action-review) everything and answer 1) What did I/we do good? 2) What could I/we have done better? 3 How do I/we institutionalize change and improvement? (Good/Better/How AAR every day). Have a mentor and lean on them.

Paragraph three:  Explain why we are doing this, why it is important, why it is essential to our survival. We are doing this now because we are an organization that is failing in our mission which eventually leads to too many student drop-outs or to high school graduates who are actually functionally illiterate.  During World War II, General Eisenhower, commander of all forces in Europe said, “The U.S. soldier will accomplish anything you ask of them as long as you tell them why it is necessary.”

Paragraph four: Keys to success are acceptance of change and innovation. While this is an overall team effort, each of you, individually, must accept that we must change, innovate and be all we are capable of being. Figuratively speaking, change or die.

Intent bottom line:  You hear it, you see it in writing, you see the end state, you participate as part of a team that is bound together in a common cause, you continue to act in the absence of specific daily guidance based on what you understand your leader intends for you to do.

Intent, the most powerful tool available to a leader, answers who, when and why.

A PHASED CAMPAIGN:  For any complex operations plan, it must be broken into logical, identifiable phases.  It keeps everyone focused on first things first.  It keeps some from stumbling ahead without having properly set the stage for future actions. Do three things:

One, give each phase a name; phase 1 is usually Planning. 

Two, set an end date for each phase.

Three, and most importantly, define a set of Centers of Gravity for each phase just before that phase timeline begins.  A Center of Gravity could be a person, place, thing or circumstance that is CRITICAL to success or could cause it to fail.  It is not a long list, perhaps 2 or 3 issues.  Publish them and make it a daily function for everyone to be aware and on the look-out for indicators.

CONCLUSIONS: this Framework for Action outlined above will work and must be written down. Why?  When important leader thoughts and directions are recorded, the author will be especially cognizant of the verbiage; is it correct, will they “get it”, are we performing tasks in the most logical sequence, does it pass the smell test? If the campaign pieces are published it becomes a readily available reference document.

The alternative to writing the vision, strategy, mission, intent, phasing and the first set of Centers of Gravity is that a principal may put all of this critical information out one time verbally during a teacher assembly.   Among those attending will be a few who take copious notes, those who take none, those who are currently burdened with some crisis that has them completely tuned out and perhaps those who hear something early on that they disagree with and just shut down at that point.  Verbal can be very imperfect and can be a failed leader tactic.

CEOs: 

While daily observing senior leaders of large organizations in the military (32 years) and then 10 years working with senior leaders in civilian organizations, I have come to some conclusions about how successful CEOs operate.  First of all, they recognize that they can easily become overwhelmed with the breadth of their responsibilities. The successful ones find the best and brightest directors and delegate the day-today leadership of that element with perhaps a weekly up-date to remain current on the issues.  Then successful CEOs can focus the majority of their time and efforts on the Product.  Every organization has a Product.  As mentioned earlier, the U.S. military’s Product is trained leaders and combat-ready forces. GM’s Product is vehicles. An education organization’s Product is students at proficiency level.

I recently saw an education organization diagram with the Superintendent’s direct reports being the Directors of budget, human resources and communications.  The school Principals were at the bottom of the org diagram filtered away from the CEO by two layers of intermediate bosses.  Obviously, there was little if any daily focus by the CEO on the Product.  That school system is at about 60% proficiency. Loooong ago in my little country one-room K-8 school I learned that 60% is an “F”.

BOTTOM LINE:

Our nation is in an education crisis of major proportions, not getting any better and the only thing our president will say about education is that unions are wonderful and charter schools are not.

I promise you building a Framework for action is not theory; I know it works.  One example: In my post-military 10-year consulting career, one of my customers was a top-ten Fortune 500 Corporation operating in 120 countries. After 3 ½ years into a Framework for Action campaign, with no new products, no additional territory and the same employees, their gross revenue had increase tens of billions of dollars annually.

Using the Framework for Action as a tool box does not require a new law or new regulations or a new budget; it’s free.

Note to subscribers:  If you agree with this proposal, send a copy to the members of your local School Board.  I’m not trying to sell books; I’m trying to sell solutions. If a school system took on this program their leaders might find I advantageous to read VISION TO EXECUTION which amplifies the above Framework for Action tools and introduces additional tools that can be helpful. 

Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO EXECUTION, a book for leaders, FIX THE SYSTEMS, TRANSFORM AMERICA as well as the author of a blog WeThePeopleSpeaking.com

Just for the heck of it let’s say we are under attack by another country or organization and last year we suffered about 208 KIA per day. It would be nice if this was just a hypothetical scenario, but as unbelievable as it may seem, it is happening every day across our once-great land.  208 per day, average.

But what makes the situation even more incredulous is that our Commander in Chief will not talk about it, neither the Secretary of Defense nor the Secretary of State will confront the situation, the Secretary of Home Land Security tells us repeatedly, under oath, that, “our borders are secure” and the mainstream media for the most part is ambivalent about the whole subject. 

We are under attack; the aggressor state is China, their ammunition is fentanyl, the non-state proxy warriors are the Latin American Cartels and the Cartel host nation is our supposed-to-be-friend Mexico and their leader, President Obrador, could care less, saying “U.S. fentanyl deaths are due to lack of love, of brotherhood, of hugs”.  23 June, 2023 Mexican President Obrador said during a press conference, “We do not produce fentanyl.” 

KIAs by comparison: In all the years of daily combat with the enemy there are 58,000 KIA names on the Vietnam Memorial in Washington D.C. while just last year, 2022, we suffered 75,900 KIA on U.S. soil in the fentanyl war.

And the 208 KIA per day are just from fentanyl; the overall opioid numbers from 2022 were 110,236 deaths, 302 per day.

President Biden tells us,  “White supremacists are the most lethal threat to America.” No president in our history has knowingly and deliberately threatened our national security to this degree. Vietnam protest demonstrations were commonplace from 1965-1973.  Where are the protesters today?  Where is the media outrage demanding a counter attack?

THE PROBLEM: The beginning of finding a solution is to define the problem.  But it is not just about fentanyl, it is a two-part problem.

FIRST, THE FENTANYL PROBLEM:

Here is a snapshot of how China and the Cartels get its ammunition (fentanyl) to the soldiers on the ground across America.  Data taken from an article in the NEW YORK POST, February 18, 2023 by Michael Kaplan.

$200 per kilogram (in round numbers, two kilograms equals about one pound):

Chinese chemists produce powdered chemical “precursors” that are fentanyl’s building blocks. There is so much corruption at the ports that a couple hundred bucks will make authorities look the other way as chemicals are unloaded in Mexican ports.

$3000-$5000 per kilogram:

 “Laboratory” is a glorified word for Mexican fentanyl production facilities. Much of the fentanyl is brewed by mom-and pop operations outdoors in pots over open flames where the “cook” tries to stay up-wind in order to live through the process The drugs get diluted, mixed with other chemicals and the final product is either powder or fentanyl pressed into pills that resemble pharmaceuticals or candy.

$20,000 per kilogram:

Drug dealers routinely stash the fentanyl in trucks, usually mixed in with other shipping products. With 200,000 vehicles crossing the Mexico/US border each day, it’s not difficult for the deadly cargo to slip through.

$35,000 per kilogram:

 Most of the product is delivered to drop-off hubs near large cities.

$300,000 per kilogram:

Inside apartments, houses, garages, wherever it is convenient, fentanyl is cut with adulterants and sealed in glassine (smooth and glossy paper that is air, water and grease resistant) envelopes that contain single-sized doses.  A crew of 12 can package 100,000 glassines in 24 hours. On the street a glassine packet becomes a $10 sale.  One glassine usually contains less than two milligrams of fentanyl. Keep in mind that there are about 28 grams in an ounce so that means there are about 28,000 milligrams in one ounce. According to the DEA, two milligrams, just 2mg, of fentanyl constitute a lethal dose. By comparison, one small Bayer baby aspirin weighs in at 81 mg.

$1 million per kilogram ($2million per pound):

Wholesalers’ pick-up glassine-enveloped goods from the drug mills and then meet up with their street dealers. Street dealers make approximately $2 for each $10 bag of fentanyl that they sell to their customers.

 While the Biden administration will occasionally brag about seizing a big shipment of fentanyl at the border, the Border Patrol and DEA will tell you that whatever the number of pounds, it is just a drop in the bucket and considered a small cost-of-doing-business to the Cartels.

THE LARGER PROBLEM, CARTEL ORGANIZATIONS COMING SOON TO YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD:                    

Cartels are not just about drug trafficking. Their expertise also includes bribery, kidnapping, extortion, oil pipeline tapping, sex trafficking, general human trafficking (as in millions of illegal aliens crossing the border), money laundering, gun running, contract killing, robbery and general lawlessness.

BACKGROUND ON THE CARTELS:

The primary actors are the Sinaloa Cartel, for many years the most dominant drug trafficking organization in Mexico. Cartel Jalisco is the emerging power. Additionally in the mix is the Los Zetas Cartel, Gulf Cartel and Juarez Cartel. All are engaged in holding their current territory and/or expanding their territory thus creating one of the most violent areas in the world today with an enormous impact on the Mexican economy and society as a whole.

Additionally, the Sinaloa and Jalisco Cartels have each split into 35-40 subordinate cells each with a chain of command similar to paramilitary organizations.  

Furthermore, over the past few years there have been about 400 new gangs and splinter groups formed to challenge the Cartels; all of which has overwhelmed Mexican law enforcement.

The Cartels are like a cancer on society; you may not know you have it until it’s too late.  The Cartels thrive in a dysfunctional society and further turn it into an unlivable catastrophe.

In 2006 the Mexican President Felipe Calderon declared a “war on drugs.”  Since then, more than 60,000 people have disappeared in Mexico. The Cartels won that war. They operate with broad impunity in Mexico, terrorizing local populations with their brutal tactics.

How do the Cartel’s operate in Mexico on a day-to-day basis with such impunity?  The answer is simple, they gain control over leaders and influential people. Elected leaders, police leaders, military leaders, media leaders at the local, state and national levels are all vulnerable to Cartel tactics.  It’s not a complex formula, they simply kill the opposition or approach them and suggest an alternative they cannot refuse.  That is, the leaders become part of the problem by accepting bribes to look the other way or the Cartel operatives threaten the lives of the leaders’ family members.  Simple but effective. 

When there are no boundaries to the level of violence the Cartel enforcers will employ, there daily operations are simple.  A phone call or visit from someone you don’t know or may never see again who simply provides an ultimatum; you will not interfere in our operation or we will kill you and or your family. 

With this terrorist tactic in place, it is impossible to know which side of the fence any leader is operating from. Case in point: A former Mexican presidential cabinet member, Garcia Luna, was convicted February 2023 in the U.S. for taking bribes to protect the violent drug Cartels. He has been sentenced to 20 years in prison.  Note he was convicted in the U.S., not in Mexico.

The Mexican media is generally mute on Cartel terrorism because Mexico is one of the most dangerous countries in the world for journalists. You publish a contrary article and your body may be discovered with your hands cut off.  Message sent; message received.

Political candidates who campaign on a promise to clean out the Cartels will likely be “encouraged” by the Cartels to drop out or change his or her intent.

The questions facing the general Mexican public on a daily basis are who can I trust? Is my best friend actually taking Cartel bribes?  Will the police help me if I am threatened? Are my local, state and national representatives in bed with the Cartels? Will the Cartels eventually take over my business?  What will I do if my family is threatened? Mexico is a country living in fear with no solution in sight.

CARTEL EXPANSION:

The United States of America is right now a target rich environment, we are more than just vulnerable, we are likely next on the Cartel’s expansion list.  Why?  Four reasons:

• One, the Cartels’ foot soldiers are already in place throughout the U.S., the Cartels just have to get them organized. The FBI reports there are about 33,000 violent street gangs, motorcycle gangs, and prison gangs criminally active in the U.S. today with about 1.4 million members.  Additionally, the number of street gang members is increasing in about half of FBI jurisdictions. Many gangs are sophisticated and well organized; all use violence to control neighborhoods and boost their illegal money-making activities, which include robbery, drug and gun trafficking, prostitution and human trafficking. The gangs represent an in-place nation-wide resource of foot soldiers for drug distribution, street sales, crime, general lawlessness and violence.

• Two, general lawlessness is becoming pervasive throughout our nation. Under current leadership at the local, state and national levels, police forces, prosecutors and judges appear helpless or unwilling to solve the lawless problem.

• Three, why should the Cartels delay when the U.S. Commander in Chief is, by policy, leaving the southern border open.

• Four, this is where the money is.

The Drug Enforcement Agency’s 2023 assessment is that Mexican Cartels already have operations in at least 60 American cities.

And what are we doing about it? With this administration, absolutely nothing.

HOW CAN WE MOVE TOWARDS A SOLUTION:

• First, officially classify the Cartels as International Terrorist Organizations.

Republican attorneys general from 21 states have called on President Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken to declare Mexican drug Cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations. They argue that the Cartels pose a threat to U.S. national security beyond their drug-related activities.

Opponents say there are already sufficient laws on the books to deal with the Cartels. Notwithstanding that objection, there are also compelling reasons to do so.  

The terrorist label will have some appeal not because it expands legal authority, but because it sends a loud message. People view terrorism as more heinous than ordinary crime. Calling it drug trafficking, kidnapping, and murder by themselves doesn’t adequately reflect the national outrage that we should be feeling.

The terrorist label elevates the issue, suggesting that more must be done to prevent the Cartels current actions against the U.S. and furthermore to send the message not to attempt to expand operations on our soil.

Other countries will likely get behind the U.S. position thereby reenforcing consensus at an international level on counterterrorism. DEA says, “The Sinaloa Cartel is operating in 45 countries around the world”.

• Second, begin this process of taking down the Cartels with a secret meeting between the presidents of the U.S. and Mexico (Biden and Obrador are up for reelection in 2024) along with their Secretaries of Defense and State.  No one else in the room.  No press release.

The point of the meeting is for our next president to assert to his Mexican counterpart that his country is in serious trouble, his government has lost control of large sections of territory, it is getting worse, it is negatively impacting the U.S. and we have no intentions of having a narco-terrorists nation on our southern border. We are not asking for permission but very much want the Mexican president’s blessing and cooperation. It will be a win for both countries. Neighbors helping neighbors.  The status quo is unacceptable

Mexican President Obrador is currently part of the problem. Elected in 2018, he has undertaken a non-confrontational security strategy which he has referred to as “hugs not guns.”  On 9 March 2023, he called any plan for U.S. military action against the Cartels, “irresponsible.” On 13 March he stated that “Mexico is safer than the United States; there is no problem traveling safely in Mexico.”  By the way, Mexico’s nationwide homicide rate is 28 per 100,000 inhabitants while the U.S. is one quarter as high.

• Third, labeling the Cartels as terrorists also automatically opens the door to discussions of use of U.S. military forces in Mexico. There needs to be a precursor to begin the dialogue about use of military in Mexico. If we just dump the military force idea on the public the mental picture for many will be that of the 82^nd Airborne Division jumping into areas of Mexico and taking control. Or a mental picture of tanks from the 1^st Armored Division (currently stationed outside El Paso Texas) rolling across the Rio Grande River headed for points south.  We do not need that kind of hysteria going public and, in all probability, loudly opposed by the left media. 

Last spring, Senator Lindsey Graham said, “We are going to unleash “the fury and the might of the United States. It’s time now to get serious and use all the tools in our toolbox, not just in the prosecution way, not just in the law enforcement lane, but in the military lane as well.”

We may need to be a little more subtle than Senator Graham as we approach the subject of military action in Mexico; remember Mexico is a vital trade partner. In 2022 trade between the two countries totaled more than three-quarters of a trillion dollars and nearly 5 million U.S. jobs depend on that trade.

• Fourth, our president needs to have a serious talk with China’s leader. It has been reported that in 2019 China stopped shipping fentanyl to the United States, and instead began shipping separate chemicals.  If China wanted to stop their chemical companies from exporting, they could. Our president needs to pressure him to do so.  Obviously, Biden is not up to this task.

AUTHORITY TO USE THE U.S. MILITARY IN MEXICO:

Constitutional War Powers, Article II, Section 2 grants the President the power to direct the military after a declaration of war by Congress.

Presidential Policy Guidance, PPG, on Procedures for Approving Direct Action Against Terrorist Targets Located Outside the United States and Areas of Active Hostilities: This was put into place under the Obama administration, the PPG established standard operating procedures for circumstances when the U.S. takes direct action against terrorist targets outside of the US and outside of areas of active hostilities.

Additionally, Article 51 of the United Nations Charter specifies that, “Nothing in this Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs.”  The U.S. interpretation of the Charter recognizes three circumstances under which the use of force is permitted: 1) the use of force authorized by the UN Security Council under Chapter VII of the Charter; 2) the use of force in self-defense, including against imminent attacks; and 3) the use of force in an otherwise lawful manner with the consent of the territorial state.

Some examples of the U.S. engaging terrorists in foreign nations in the past:

Somalia. Operations against al-Shabaab terrorists with the consent of the government of Somalia in furtherance of U.S. national self-defense.

Libya. Operations against Daesh were conducted 2015-2019 with the consent of the Government of National Accord in furtherance of U.S. national self-defense.

Yemen. Operations against al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula have been conducted since 2015.

Given the above, one could argue that the Cartels have become a clear and present danger to the United States; that Congress has acknowledged inherent executive power in accordance with the Joint Resolution passed by Congress on September 14, 2001 which states the President may deploy military force preemptively against terrorist organizations in the states that harbor or support them.

CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS FOR THE USE OF OUR MILITARY IN MEXICO:

The intent is to begin operations with a Mexico-wide shock-and-awe attack on headquarters, production facilities, collection/distribution points and supply chains to immediately put the Cartels on their heels and in a defensive mode. Then increase the operational tempo to the maximum extent.

Trust no one.  Too many Mexican politicians, law enforcement and military at all levels are on the Cartels’ payroll, accepting bribes and/or living under threat of violence for themselves and their families. 

Every U.S. intelligence gathering/reporting element will be temporarily focused on Mexico. Humint, human intelligence, is the center of gravity.  The locals know the Cartel operatives in their area and where they live.  They know where the mom-and-pop fentanyl production facilities are located. They know the drivers, the pick-up points, the routes to the border. etc. An intel tip in the afternoon becomes an operation that night.

The objective is to gain the local trust.  After a few weeks of operations, a conversation between a couple locals might go like this:  Hey, have you seen Jose (the local Cartel leader) lately?  No, he just seemed to have disappeared and now his replacement is also missing.  Wonder if it has anything to do with those gringo military guys around here at night?  Hmm, they might really be doing some good for us. 

Conduct Mexico-wide operations without a significant visible military foot-print inside Mexico. The intent is NOT to use large forces to take control of geographic areas, to have someone sitting in the mayor’s office, to be setting up road blocks, patrolling roads, to be visible.   The force will consist mostly of Special Operations elements; Army Rangers, Army Special Forces, Navy Seals, Marine Corps Forced Recon and Delta Force.  Night ops will be the norm. The idea is not for the community to see these forces but to see and feel the results of our military’s efforts. Information will begin to leak out then spread across the nation that the entire senior leadership of a particular Cartel has “disappeared.”  Across the country the local fentanyl production facilities will go up in smoke night after night. 

At some point in time after the U.S. effort has shown success and has gained the trust and respect of the Mexican leaders and the public, the U.S. forces can begin to integrate local police and military forces into their daily operations moving towards the Cartels’ defeat and a handoff to the Mexican government to sustain the peace.

As a high priority, port security to intercept shipments from China will be beefed up and the port Cartel operators will be taken out.

As the Mexican operations wreak havoc on fentanyl production and distribution, drug inventories, transport and distribution will be in disarray. The DEA, FBI, law enforcement, prosecutors and judges across the country must commit to the arrest and prosecution of everyone in the drug operation chain inside the U.S. and to putting the criminals in jail. Thousands of them.

What the Mexican president will see and hear is that Cartel leaders are missing, their chains of command are being killed and captured, incoming raw chemical supplies and outgoing fentanyl products are not on schedule and production facilities are disappearing. This will allow Mexican military and law enforcement to go on the offensive and regain control of territory and generally reduce the violence.  

Drones of every size and capability will fill the sky; surveillance drones with real-time downlinks to Special Operations forces on the ground; drones armed with Hellfire missiles in the air and on station for immediate use by ground forces against high-value targets and targets of opportunity.

While taking out the Cartels, the U.S. must completely rethink its operations at the 300-plus ports of entry. Over 90% of all the hard drugs confiscated is accomplished at the ports of entry.

CONCLUSIONS:

The U.S. is vulnerable and completely exposed to an all-out covert assault by the Cartels. Doing nothing is not a feasible alternative; the stakes are too high.

The Biden administration is powerless to initiate any actions against the Cartels because of the in-place Biden policy of open borders. President Biden continues to completely ignore his number one priority, the safety and security of all Americans. Therefore, this concept of operations will have to be an action for the 2024 president-elect.  This the becomes an important campaign issue for the Republican candidates.

BOTTOM LINE:

Without taking positive action against the Cartels, We-the-People run the risk of living in fear of violence from the Cartel operatives every day. Do we want to wake up every morning wondering if our neighbor is part of the Cartel organization, wondering if we can count on the police in time of need, worrying that something I recently said about Cartel violence will result in harm to me or my family, worrying that the Cartels will demand a weekly or monthly “tax” on my business, worrying that my journalist son will become a Cartel target, etc. etc. etc.  

If this is not the environment we want to live in, we better wake the hell up America, grab the preverbal bull by the horns, not let this become a political issue and encourage the media to look in the mirror and again become the honest broker for America. We must take action. 

This impending crisis and need for immediate counter action highlights the fact that the two actionable leaders, Presidents Biden and Obrador, are unwilling to accept that there is a pending crisis, are incapable of leading this initiative and are abrogating their most basic leadership requirement; the safety and security of their citizens.

Knock on the door, I need for you to cease all actions against the Cartels or your life and the lives of your family are at risk.  Have a nice day.

Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of two books, Vision to Execution and Fix the Systems, Transform America as well as the author of a blog, WeThePeopleSpeaking.com.