(Proposed memo from the White House National Security Council staff)
National Security Council
The White House
1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
Washington DC
30 September, 2020
Memorandum for: President Biden
Subject: Terrorist Threat
Mr. President, day-in and day-out we, members of your NSC staff, concern ourselves with the deeply important issues that impact both positively and negatively on the security of our nation. We take our work very seriously and feel obligated to keep you informed of all critical issues associated with security.
The purpose of this memo is to advise you of a possible eminent threat that could have catastrophic consequences. The issue centers around our open southern border. I know that you, the VP and all your loyal senior subordinates are telling the American people, “The border is not open” and “The border is secure”, but, Mr. President, no one else in America believes you because it is simply not true. America watches TV and we all see the multitudes wading across the Rio Grande River every day and gathering in large groups to be met and processed by the Border Patrol. So please just stop saying it. Morale among the Border Patrol agents is about as low as it can get because they know first-hand that the border is open and therefore not secure.
You may not get updates from your staff on the alarming statistics about what is really happening every day along the border with Mexico. Over 2 million illegals will have crossed the border during this fiscal year. That’s about 5500 per day. Also, about 265,000 unaccompanied children have walked or been carried across the border since you were inaugurated.
Notwithstanding these tragic open-border illegal migrant statistics, there is an additional jaw-dropping estimate. That is, since January 2021, on your watch, over a million illegals, referred to as “got-aways”, entered the U.S. without being apprehended. Many of them are criminals, gang members, sex traffickers, drug carriers and terrorists. This Mr. President is nothing less than an on-going national security crisis. And then there are the 300-plus Americans dying every day from illegal Chinese/Cartel drugs.
Conclusions from the above data: The agents are so overwhelmed on a daily basis processing illegal adult and unaccompanied children that willingly present themselves to be “apprehended” that the Border Patrol cannot adequately patrol the border looking for the got-aways. Therein lies the national security problem.
Now let’s get to the heart of the matter, terrorists. One of the most important security endeavors since 9/11 is the maintenance of the Terrorist Watchlist by the National Counterterrorism Center in connection with the U.S. intelligence community and security agencies. The U.S. counterterrorism strategy has focused on the risk of terrorist attacks from abroad. On 15 June, 2021 you, Mr. President, shifted that emphasis by announcing the Strategy for Countering Domestic Terrorism. That would include parents objecting to local school board curriculum decisions, MAGA extremists and white supremacists. This is not to imply that you are not concerned with international terrorists but it begs the question, what are your priorities, political or national security?
Author’s note on assumptions: When planning for any complex operation one never has all of the facts necessary to complete the planning process. Therefore, it becomes necessary to make some assumptions in order to move the process forward. But assumptions should pass the smell test by being possible, feasible and maybe even probable. Also, it is essential that the assumptions get continuously evaluated as the plan unfolds because there is nothing more damaging that completing a plan that is based on an invalid assumption.
Some assumptions: The terrorists are not coming here to live the American dream. They are unlikely operating on their own. They are likely part of an organization that wants to severely damage America. They are likely trained, financed and know where they are to go once inside the U.S.
Some facts: Illegal immigrants who are on the terrorists watch list have been apprehended at our Mexican border; FY 17 (2), FY 18 (6), FY19 (0), FY 20 (3), FY 21 (15), FY 22 (as of 30 August, 66). Eighty-one terrorists apprehended on your watch, Mr. President, in less than two years compared to 11 during the four-year Trump administration. Something is going on and it can’t be good.
Another assumption: Terrorists who are especially selected, trained and financed by their organizations to come to the U.S. are much more likely to have sponsors already in the U.S. who will facilitate crossing the border without being apprehended. Going back to the previously stated estimate that since January 2021 over a million “got-aways”, entered the U.S. without being apprehended; one could/should conclude that out of that one million there could be at least hundreds, if not thousands, of terrorists who successfully crossed the border and faded into American society.
Questions: Are they already assigned to terrorist cells? Are they undergoing additional training (ala 9-11 pilot training) appropriate for their upcoming mission? How many cells could there be? What is their most likely mission(s)? Of the approximately 2800 mosques in the U.S. how many are housing and/or otherwise supporting terrorist cells? How soon can they strike? These are the questions we, in your National Security Council, need to be answering.
What could a few well organized, trained and equipped terrorists do to the United States? Let’s begin with an easy one, the Power Grid.
Power Grid Facts: The power grid is a distribution system of power plants, substations, transformers, and power lines that help connect energy sources with the people that use that energy. It consists of more than 10,000 functioning power plants, nearly 20,000 electrical generators and a combined 450,000 miles of distribution and transmission lines serviced by over 55,000 substations. The systems are increasingly decrepit, poorly maintained and frightfully vulnerable to a variety of mishaps, accidents, disasters and enemy action including cyber warfare.
A particularly powerful natural event or a deliberate enemy attack could quite literally fry the entirety of the grid in the blink of an eye, rolling us back to the Stone Age.
Most of these installations and components are totally unguarded. The vulnerability can be illustrated by looking back at the California Substation Sniper Attack, April 16th, 2013. That night multiple shooters began firing at and severely damaged 17 transformers at the Metcalf transmission substation in Coyote, California.
At that time, Jon Wellinghoff was chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, a small government agency with jurisdiction over the U.S. high voltage transmission system. This is a summary of his on-scene findings and conclusions:
For about 20 minutes, gunmen methodically fired at high voltage transformers hitting them at least 90 times; all during darkness. Their primary targets were the narrow cooling fins, causing 17 of the 21 transformers to overheat and stop working.
The attackers had obviously reconnoitered the site and marked at least four firing positions with piles of rocks. Additionally, that night they broke into two underground vaults and cut off communications coming from the substation. There was no security at the site.
Someone outside the plant heard the gunfire and called 911. The gunmen disappeared without a trace about a minute before a patrol car arrived. The substation was down for weeks.
Though low-tech in nature, the attack was highly organized and professionally executed; the perpetrators are yet to be apprehended. It remains one of the best examples of how easily small organized teams can impact the power grid.
Because the entire grid is so complex and constantly operating at changing levels of effort throughout the grid, any failure in the system has the possibility of creating a “cascading failure effect.” When that happens, shutdowns can cascade like dominoes and it is possible for the entire grid to be subject to shutting down. Mercifully no cascading failure resulted from the 2013 attack in California.
BOTTOM LINE, HOW VULNERABLE ARE WE?
Of the 55,000 substations there are 30 that are most critical for interconnection of the entire grid. There are so many open-source-studies out there about grid vulnerability, I’m confident almost anyone could pin-point where those 30 are located. Furthermore, by initiating a coordinated attack (as in the 20-minute attack on Metcalf in 2013) and destroying only 9 of those 30 interconnection substations, studies estimate the entire United States grid could be down for, “At least 18 months, probably longer.”
Instantly it would not be 2022, it would be 1822 or perhaps 1722 and we are not prepared to live like that. What would happen in those few minutes? Consider this short list of what would be no longer available:
- Water supply and wastewater treatment
- Telecommunications and the internet
- Food production and delivery
- Fuel extraction, refining, and distribution
- Financial systems
- Transportation and traffic controls
- Government, including public works, law enforcement, and emergency services
- Hospitals and healthcare
- Supply chains
- The reality that you may never hear from family and loved ones again. Ever
Immediate anarchy would prevail across the nation. All food would be removed from stores and warehouses within about 48 hours. Tens of millions of Americans would be dead in the first month. And then what? Just let your imagination work that over for a few minutes. How long until 100 million are dead? Rural America would be the most likely to survive; huge metropolitan areas the least likely.
Could this happen? Yes. Another possibility is detonation of a nuclear weapon at high altitude thereby creating an electromagnetic pulse, EMP, that would instantly fry anything electrical to include every vehicle. The impact would be the same as the above list of what would be instantly unavailable. A massive, coordinated cyber-attack would be a possible third scenario.
WHO WOULD/COULD DO THIS AND WHY? Consider this scenario:
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has repeatedly called for the destruction of Israel, stating, “The barbaric Jewish state has no cure but to be annihilated.” Additionally, over the years he has repeatedly led the chants during Friday prayers, “Death to America.” Khamenei wants to go down in Islamic history as the man who defeated America.
Iran wants to be the Middle East kingpin and part of that plan is to become the Middle East’s only nuclear power. Their problem is that as recently as 21 September, before the United Nations General Assembly Biden declared, “We will not allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon.” Over the years Israel leaders have repeatedly said, “Israel must prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear bomb.”
Iran sits on the world’s second largest gas reserves and has the fourth largest oil reserves, but U.S. sanctions hinder Iran’s progress in developing gas exports.
Note in March 2021 China and Iran, both subject to U.S. sanctions, signed a 25-year cooperation agreement to strengthen their economic and political alliance.
Note in February, 2022 Russia and China sign a partnership agreement which is considered a bold declaration of the “New World Order.”
Note in July 2022, Russia and Iran signed a deal wherein Russia will assist Iran in development of their gas and oil production and export. Russia is currently the third largest producer of oil and first in gas production.
Anyone see where all these China/Russia/Iran agreements are taking the world? We are already in the early stages of a world energy war with Russia/Putin controlling the energy supply to Europe.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is an organization of 13 countries founded in 1960. With Iran in control of the Middle East, they and Russia could delete OPEC and become the controlling nations of world petroleum exporting; thereby setting prices and deciding which importing nations get what and how much. Given their long-term agreements with Russia and Iran, this outcome would solve China’s problem as the world’s largest importer of oil and gas.
CONCLUSIONS to, who would/could do this and why?
Why destroy America? The U.S. is hindering Iran’s progress towards becoming an equal partner with Russia and China in the overall movement for the three of them to control the world.
Who could destroy America? Iran is the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism with access to and some control over most terrorist organizations. Iran’s leadership is morally corrupt, power hungry and would like nothing more than to achieve their long-term stated goal of “Death to America.”
The above information leads one to believe that a dozen 3-4-person terrorist teams of marksmen could simultaneously take down the 9 critical substations out of the existing 55,000 and thereby take America into darkness.
Mr. President, if you are reading this memo, you will have noted that we did not route it through your National Security Advisor, our boss Jake Sullivan, who is one of your spokespersons for, “The border is secure.” We understand that we, “serve at the pleasure of the president” and you can fire us all immediately. But doing so, won’t make the terrorist issue go away.
RECOMMENDATIONS:
Of the 55,000 substations, the 30 that are most critical to preventing a cascading nation-wide blackout need 24/7 security with sophisticated redundant alert systems that will immediately call up local law enforcement rapid reaction forces to quickly counter attack.
Get your priorities straight on domestic vs international threats. White supremacists not an existential threat. MAGA enthusiasts are not an existential threat. Parents speaking out on education are not an existential threat. But Mr. President, well organized, well trained, well financed international terrorists are an existential threat and we need to address the issue head-on before it is too late.
Mr. President, your number one responsibility is the safety and security of the American people. The terrorists need to take out only a specified list of 9 of the 55,000 substations and we cease to exist.
(Memo signed by National Security Council staff members)
Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO EXECUTION, a book for leaders, and a new book May 2022, FIX THE SYSTEMS, TRANSFORM AMERICA as well as the author of a blog WeThePeopleSpeaking.com