THE FUTURE IS NOW AND ITS UGLY
By about 4 p.m. on 20 January 2021, President Biden signed an Executive Order that threw the oil and gas industry into turmoil. In part it was a 60-day suspension of new oil and gas leasing and drilling permits for U.S. lands and waters. This served two purposes for the new administration; first it was an obvious gotcha to reverse Trump policies on energy. Secondly, it was a gift to the environmentalists and climate-change advocates.
BACKGROUND: Throughout much of its history, the United States has imported more petroleum than it has exported. A report, February, 2021 by The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) tells us that, “2020 marked the first year that the United States exported more petroleum than it imported on an annual basis. Unfortunately, thanks to President Biden, EIA expects the United States to return to being a net petroleum importer on an annual basis in 2021.”
Was this immediate knee-jerk policy well thought out? Had there been any debate in Congress? Did President Biden or his handlers know, on the afternoon of 20 January, what the US public reaction would be? No.
What it ended up to be is Bidens first new “tax” (a rose by any other name…..) and it has negatively impacted every single American. In six months, crude oil prices are up 54% and the price for gasoline at the pump has skyrocketed. Additionally, transportation costs for every single product we buy has gone up because, at some point, every single product comes out of the back of a gas/diesel guzzling truck. Result, higher prices for everything for everyone.
But beyond US gasoline prices, the unanticipated consequences are more far-reaching with huge national security implications.
THE US STANDING IN THE WORLD OF OIL: It has taken the US about 50 years to overcome our dependency on foreign oil. For the leading nation in the fee world, “dependency” is not a good place to be. It reduces or negates leverage that we need in dealing with other countries and regions. Here is a prime example of what can happen when we are dependent on others to supply us with petroleum.
OIL EMBARGO: Many of you will not remember the 1973 oil embargo. There was a nation-wide gasoline shortage, long lines at the pump, lots of inconvenience but beyond that, the geopolitical implications were huge.
During the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, Arab members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) imposed an embargo against the United States in retaliation for the U.S. decision to re-supply the Israeli military and to gain leverage in the post-Arab-Israeli war peace negotiations.
The price of oil per barrel first doubled, then quadrupled, imposing skyrocketing costs on consumers around the world.
U.S. allies in Europe and Japan had stockpiled oil supplies, and thereby secured for themselves at least a short-term cushion. These circumstances precipitated a rift within the Atlantic Alliance. European nations and Japan found themselves in the uncomfortable position of needing U.S. assistance to secure energy sources, even as they sought to disassociate themselves from US Middle East policy.
In response to these developments, on November 7, 1973 the Nixon administration announced Project Independence to promote domestic energy independence. It has taken us about 50 years to get there. Forecasters expect US net imports of crude oil to increase from its 2020 average of 2.7 million barrels per day (b/d) to 3.7 million b/d in 2021 and 4.4 million b/d in 2022.”
OIL AND GEOPOLITICS: That short history lesson brings us back to today’s geopolitical situation. Iran is the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism. The Iranian Supreme Leader has for years declared openly that it is Iran’s duty to destroy America and Israel. Iran is our enemy.
After the Obama/Biden 2015 Iran Peace Treaty was in place, Iran’s GDP grew 12.3%, much of that growth was attributed to the oil and gas industry. Iran’s support to global terrorist groups was at an all-time high, spending as much as $700 million per year to support global terrorism.
US sanctions on Iran, imposed by President Trump in 2018, caused Iran’s GDP to drop by 4.8% in 2018 and 9.5% in 209 according to the International Monetary Fund. Additionally, the IMF estimated that inflation soared to 30.5% in 2018 and 35.7% in 2019. Iran was crippled economically as were their contributions to terrorists.
President Biden has returned to the bargaining table with Iran. Iran’s leaders have already taken advantage of a less hostile climate, reviving petroleum sales, increasing production almost 20% in 2020 to 2.4 million barrels a day in April, up by 1,30,000 barrels per day from March. Iran could increase production to almost 4 million barrels a day in three to six months.
When President Trump cancelled the Obama/Biden deal with Iran, senior Iranian officials admitted that after signing the US/Iran deal they never ceased operations to produce a nuclear weapon. But Biden is so committed to reviving the deal as part of his anti-Trump agenda that in recent weeks, during six meetings with Iranian negotiators, the US has already indicated they will lift sanctions in return for “nuclear compliance”. What nuclear compliance? Iran has admitted being capable of having a bomb within six months; which probably means they already have one. Decreased sanctions will only lead to a stronger and more aggressive Iran, increased global terrorism and a more destabilized Middle East. There is an old saying, “if you want a deal bad enough, that’s what you will get, a bad deal.”
One additional note on Iran’s nuclear weapons: Iran will probably never admit that they have a nuclear weapon because Israel has repeatedly vowed to do everything possible to destroy it. Furthermore, if Israel did launch a first-strike that would provide Iran an excuse to attack Israel. All of this is very destabilizing for the Middle East region.
Note to President Biden: oil isn’t just about leases on US public land and pandering to your environmentalist base; it is a global issue and our soon-to-be dependency puts the US at an enormous disadvantage and, by extension, at greater risk.
IRAN/AFGHANISTAN CONNECTION: We can foresee a whole new set of problems emerging.
The Taliban have been sweeping through Afghanistan as the US and other forces pull out of the country and Afghan security forces surrender or flee. Additionally, within the past few days, the Taliban secured the main border crossing into Iran.
Just a few weeks ago, published estimates were that the Taliban might be in control of the capital, Kabul, within three years. Reality is, Kabul, a city of at least six million people, is already falling. The Taliban have blown up the power infrastructure, there are serious issues with the water supply and the city is being overrun with refugees from adjoining provinces; a humanitarian disaster in the making.
In spite of being the most benevolent nation on earth for the past century, there is no shortage of enemies that want to take us down. I believe there are four enemies at the top of the list. Iran, as pointed out above, North Korea, Russia and China.
IRAN/AFGHANISTAN POTENTIAL: Given the gravity of the overall situation in that region, one could build a credible argument that Afghanistan, with Iran’s direction and support, could once again become a safe haven for terrorists and terrorist training thereby ratcheting up the global war on terror with a particular focus on taking down the United States.
NORTH KOREA: Their foreign minister, speaking before the United Nations General Assembly, September 2017, warned that a strike against the US mainland is “inevitable”. This from a rogue nation which has, for many years, been starving its people in order to spend whatever it takes to develop a nuclear weapon, an intercontinental ballistic missile to carry it and/or a submarine capable of launching a short-range missile on an unsuspecting enemy.
North Korea is estimated to have approximately 30-40 nuclear weapons plus a significant quantity of chemical and biological weapons. Are they capable of attacking the US? Yes, but why would they? What greater bragging rights could “The Great Leader” Kim Jong-Un garner than having taken down the great and powerful United States? Reason enough? Enough to worry about and do something about it as President Trump did in 2018.
Kim Jong-Un threatened America in the UN speech and President Trump went on the offensive, setting up a one-on-one meeting with Kim in Singapore. Imagine the private conversation they must have had concerning the “inevitable” NK strike against the US. It might have gone something like this as President Trump handed Kim a close-up, clear, 8-10 photo of Kim on his big white stallion riding at his sea-side retreat: “Kim, we know where you are 24/7 and can reach out to you on a moment’s notice. Just thought you should know.”
Delivery of those weapons is North Korea’s main problem. President Trump confronted Kim personally and conveyed a strong message that missile testing is a bad idea. Now, after only 4 ½ months into the Biden Administration North Korea is at it again. On 4 May, they fired a new type of solid-fuel short range ballistic missile and tested two separate multiple rocket launch systems. Biden’s reaction, “We will respond if North Korea escalates.” Well, Mr. Biden, renewed missile testing is escalation!
RUSSIA: The US has been Russia’s nemesis for the past 75 years; we engaged them in a Cold War for about 50 of those years at tremendous expense to the US. Putin would like nothing better that to see the US fall.
Putin and his crowd probably at least had knowledge of the pipeline cyberattack in May, 2021. Whatever the case it was an excellent trial balloon with no ramifications. Proof of concept.
At their meeting in June, President Biden handed Putin a list of 16 critical infrastructure targets that, “should be off-limits to attack, period, by cyber or any other means.” When the world is becoming more and more concerned about cyber warfare, should Biden be so naïve that he believes Putin is above using that highly prioritized list to take down our country?
Oil and gas are responsible for more than 60% of Russia’s exports and provide more than 30% of the country’s GDP. Following a lean 2020, Russia is having a resurgence of oil and gas prices. With that comes power and influence, especially over European nations, our allies, who are currently suffering from a shortage of natural gas supplies.
CHINA: they are on track with a long-range strategic plan to rule the world and in the process, significantly reduce US global influence.
During what was to have been a simple meet-and-greet meeting, 18 March 2021, between our new Secretary of State Blinken and National Security Advisor Sullivan with top-ranking Chinese diplomats, a former Chinese ambassador to the US, in a 15-minute speech, publicly dressed down the US charging hypocrisy on human rights and its treatment of minorities, criticized U.S. foreign interventions, and accused U.S. officials of possessing a “cold war mentality. This was a dramatic shift in demeanor by the Chinese towards America. Why did it happen? Here is one theory.
Vengeful and dangerous. During a visit to China in 2016 to attend a G20 meeting, the Chinese had literally rolled out the red carpet for G20 heads of state who had already arrived. When President Obama arrived on Air Force One, the Chinese refused to provide a staircase to deplane. Obama, lacked the fortitude to crank his aircraft and depart immediately; so, he disembarked through an emergency exit in the plane’s belly. When Obama finally met the Chinese delegation on the tarmac there was a harsh verbal exchange during which one official was caught on video shouting, “This is our country! This is our airport!”.
Why the snub? This was Obama’s eighth, and last, meeting with the Chinese president. During those meetings, Obama was prone to “lecture” Xi Jinping about China’s human rights or the lack thereof. The Chinese leaders are vengeful and dangerous with long memories. They will give you a big smile and a small bow while simultaneously stabbing you in the back. So, in my opinion, in March of this year during the first formal interaction with the Biden Administration, the Chinese took the initiative and turned the tables on our Secretary of State on the subject of human rights. Live and learn.
China has a grand plan for Taiwan in particular and the South China Sea in general. Thirty-three years ago, when I was the deputy policy guy for the Pacific Region, China was building shacks on stilts in the shallow waters along Fiery Cross Reef in the South China Sea, planting the Chinese flag on them and claiming it was China’s territory. Today that built-up “reef” is one square mile in size and home to a military base with a 10,000-foot airstrip and a missile defense system. There are also five other military bases in the South China Sea built on similar built-up reefs.
Why is China interested in the South China Sea? It has an estimated 11 billion barrels of oil, 190 trillion feet of natural gas and 50 percent of all the fishing vessels globally. Thirty percent of the world’s shipping trade, about $4 trillion worth, flows through, as China claims, Chinese territorial waters. Availability of “local” oil and gas could become the solution to China’s Achilles heel.
For decades China has wanted to reclaim Taiwan and rid itself of the embarrassment of the flourishing democratic independent Chinese nation next-door. They now have a navy capable of challenging the US and acquiring Taiwan (as they have Hong Kong) will solidify their efforts over the past 30 years to develop the South China Sea. Now could be the time when China will force a confrontation with US Naval forces in the Western Pacific and bring to the forefront the question that has been hanging out there for the last 30 years, is the US willing to go to war to protect Taiwan?
THE THREAT/ VULNERABILITIES: None of these four enemies have the capability to launch conventional forces, land or air, to defeat us. Having said that, I believe this nation is more vulnerable today than perhaps at any time since the Revolutionary War, 1775-1783.
CYBERATTACK by individuals, foreign organizations or by enemy nations is becoming too commonplace. The recent cyberattack on the Colonial Pipeline, one of the US’ largest pipelines and shutting it down for five days in May, 2021 demonstrated how quickly our economy can be negatively impacted. US intel sources believe the strike emanated from inside Russia.
POWER GRID: Frequently we hear talk about the vulnerability of our power grid. There are thirty substations in the U.S. that play a critical role in the nation’s electric grid operations. A Federal Energy Regulatory Commission report says, “Destroy nine interconnection substations and the entire United States grid could be down for at least 18 months, probably longer,” Experts say such an attack would be “irrecoverable.” For example, how do we pump water to 330 million people every day without electricity? Tens of millions would die. What nations are probably capable of doing this? The answer is China, Russia, North Korea and Iran.
EMP: Perhaps the most devastating attack could come in the form of EMP, electromagnetic pulse. That is, a huge burst of electromagnetic energy from a nuclear explosion high in the atmosphere over the US on a scale that could destroy any electronics that it comes in contact with. It would instantly shutdown all transportation, computers, networks, electronic equipment, medical and communication systems. There would be no timely resupply of anything.
Within two days all food, bottled water, guns, ammunition and hand tools will have been looted. Millions of people in the targeted region would find themselves in a 1700’s environment. Currency would be worthless. There would be no law and order. A state of anarchy would exist everywhere. Within days millions would be dying every day, first simply from lack of water and later for a whole array of reasons. What nations are probably capable of doing this? China, Russia, North Korea and in the near future, probably Iran.
A Taepo Dong-2 missile launched from North Korea could deliver and detonate a warhead 300 km above the US. It could set up a devastating electrical field over nearly all of the United States.
For a more thorough understanding of the impact of EMP, read One Second After by William Forstchen with a forward by Newt Gingrich.
Will these catastrophic events happen? Hopefully not but can they happen? Yes.
VULNERABILITY: There was not a general sense of vulnerability during WW I or WW II or Korea or VN or even the last twenty years but now I believe we are more vulnerable than ever in our history. It will not be China hordes attacking over the California beaches. It will not be that obvious; we won’t see it coming and it could be tomorrow. Trump was brash, unpredictable and rubbed a lot of the world leaders the wrong way but friend and foe knew he was up to the task of protecting America, he would do what he said he would do, he could be counted on to attack and attack hard if threatened and our allies knew he would have their back.
For example, Obama/Biden ignored the growing ISIS threat in the Iraq/Syria region, calling it the “JV squad”. By the time Trump took over ISIS had established their own country (califate), had put together a government of sorts, were collecting taxes and building a safe-haven to plan, train and finance terrorism against the US. Trump immediately focused on the problem, put together the resources and destroyed ISIS and its califate within a few months.
What causes a nation to become vulnerable? In a word, WEAKNESS; either real or perceived and sometimes perception is more dangerous than reality.
The US is the leading economy in the world with the best and most capable military that can deploy and strike anywhere at any time. The question is, is that enough to keep China, Russia, Iran and North Korea at bay? Six months ago, I would have said yes with some slight reservations. Now my answer is no. Our enemies are more emboldened than ever and our allies are beginning to have doubts about a lot of things going on in the US, and perhaps also doubts about our leaders. The world watches and listens to everything we say and do. We are constantly under the microscope, being analyzed and sending signals.
SIGNALS: What signals are we sending, not just to China, Russia, North Korea and Iran, but the remainder of the world? Here is a sampling:
- A nation that refuses to secure its borders is not acting like a world leader. Can a nation that accepts the fact that criminals, terrorists, MS 13 gang members, drug dealers and human traffickers are illegally coming into its society be respected? The number of illegal immigrants in the last six months is unprecedented; over one million that we know about.
- Renewed foreign oil dependency provides other nations leverage against the US every day and it was caused by a Biden administration politically motivated self-inflicted wound. Can we expect our allies to understand that?
3. Houthi, a terrorist organization controlling Yemen, is supported by Iran, fires Iranian-made rockets into Saudi Arabia disrupting oil refining and is a destabilizing force in the Middle East. The Biden administration has formally notified Congress that it will remove Yemen’s Houthi rebels from our list of terrorist organizations. How serious do our allies believe we are with respect to the war on global terrorism?
4. What did not go unnoticed by our allies was the weeks-long absence of any contact or mention of our decades-old relationship with Israel by the new Biden administration.
5.Who is in charge? That is the key question being asked by our friends and enemies around the world. Who speaks for America? Who is writing the script for Biden’s teleprompter? Until six months ago there was no question about who was running the show in the US.
6. The world listened to President Biden, saying in his inauguration address that he would be the uniter of all Americans and reassure our allies that “America is back”. But have his actions conveyed the same message? World leaders were soon listening to Biden explain that the US has been and remains systemically racist. Systemically: “In a manner that affects the entire system.” Is that what we want the world to believe about the greatest nation on earth?
Biden goes on to tell us that internal white supremacist terrorism is the deadliest threat to the United States and our democracy. And who are the white supremacists? Senior Democrat leaders defines them and anyone who was or is a Trump supporter; all 70 million of us? Is that rational? Is any of that an intelligent deduction? I think not. To add insult to this discussion, the Biden administration is pushing for indoctrination of every school child to make them believe that in the US each of us exists in one of two groups, the oppressed or the oppressor. That is supposed to unify our nation? That is what we want the world to believe?
And Biden’s new cabinet has chimed in: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin called for a worldwide “stand down” of the U.S. military in April to focus on extremism in the ranks. Attorney General Merrick Garland declares that white supremacy is the greatest threat to our country today. Secretary of State, Antony Blinken asked the United Nations to investigate racism in the United States. Why? What good will it do except give our enemies fodder to criticize us. Who will make the assessment, UN members from China or Russia or Iran or North Korea? What is this administration thinking?
7. After decades of working “peace negotiations” in the Middle East, the Trump Administration finally hit on a successful formula. That is, convince the leaders of Arab nations that Israel is not their enemy and that Iran’s end-state is Middle East hegemony. From this initiative, a number of Arab nations reached out to Israel and normalized relations.
This is in contrast to the Obama/Biden/Kerry formula which is to make nice with the Palestinians in Gaza and have them share a state with Israel. That has always been a failed formula because the Palestinian government does not recognize Israel’s right to exist and Hamas is a terrorist group dedicated to Israel’s destruction. The Palestinian National Authority (the Gaza Strip government) has been Hamas since 2007. Hamas is considered a terrorist organization by the US and the European Union and is supported by the governments of Syria and Iran. Hamas is the organization that fired over 4000 rockets into Israel in May, 2021.
The Biden administration will have nothing to do with the Trump peace plan simply because it is a Trump plan and they will in all likelihood return to the failed Kerry plan. Our allies are as interested in Middle East peace as much as we and are completely baffled by Biden’s Middle East policies.
8. World leaders have watched crime in America increase dramatically in 2021 and continue unabated. Our cities are being burned and looted like a third-world country. Leaders the world over were immediately questioning some of Biden’s Executive Orders such as lifting the ban on travel from hostile Muslim nations and why stop building the wall on the southern border. Our loyal allies are asking, what is happening to the United States?
WHY ARE WE VULNERABLE? There are three good reasons; emboldened enemies, confused allies and self-inflicted wounds. And in just the past six months the needle has moved considerably in a negative direction.
It was not my intent to produce an article with so much gloom and doom. At the conclusion of President Biden’s inaugural address, most of us had a sense of calm and hopefulness concerning the state of our divided nation. But actions have spoken louder than words and within hours it became clear that President Biden’s foremost intent was to vengefully erase every Trumpism no matter how positive it might have been for the American people, for our allies and against our enemies. The extent to which our vulnerability has ratcheted up in just the first six months of the Biden Administration is alarming and dangerous. Where will it take us?
Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO EXECUTION, a book for leaders, a columnist for THE PILOT, a national award-winning local newspaper in Southern Pines, NC and the author of a blog, WeThePeopleSpeaking.com