Month: May 2019

I have a guest blogger today, my older brother Jerry.  Background: He spent his entire professional life with the US Forest Service, mostly leading huge national forests in Colorado and Montana. After “retiring” he taught in the Forestry Department at the University of Montana and has been a prolific author and thinker about trees, plants, air, water and dirt. He is also a sought-after national expert on forest fires, when/where/why/how to fight them.

The following is designed to scare the hell out of you as you think about the future for your grandkids (my words, not his).  I do recall a few decades ago reading a proclamation that most future wars will be fought over water rights.  Maybe the future is right around the corner. 

400 Generations?  Think About It.

by Jerry Covault

May 2019

People’s economic systems and the Earth:

The previous economic system on the North American Continent, the hunter-gather economy, managed the natural resources; water, air, soil, plants and animals to sustain the people’s way-of-life for 10,000 years.  The natural resources this economic system left in place have been the driving source for the economic system that followed, that system is capitalism.

In ten generations, 245 years, capitalism, has been startlingly efficient in converting natural resources to military strength, a nation-wide infrastructure, industry, energy production and personal comforts for people.  The cost has been terrible with possible irreversible damage to the basic natural resources of the continent; water, soil, air, plants, animals and minerals.  The damage to the resources is so severe that the Earth may not be able to sustain the way people are living now. Many years ago, I read an article that said if China reached the standard-of-living of the US, it would take the resources of six Earths to support the people.  That may or may not be true, but it is worth thinking about. 

Capitalism, our present, successful, power producing economic system was defined by Adam Smith in his 1776 book, The Wealth of Nations.  Adam Smith, as I understand it, identified the ideas of division of labor, productivity and free markets.    Under these descriptions, and individual can do whatever he or she wants and if the goods or services the individual produces are in demand by others, the “market place” will set the price for those goods or services.  The ideas were revolutionary. They raised the material wealth and comfort of those who successfully worked the system.  This Capitalism has become so ingrained in American culture that we cannot draw a line between ourselves as individuals, the economy, and our government. 

It makes sense that American Democracy and Capitalism are inseparable by most of us, they came to the world in the same year, 1776.  Democracy and capitalism have grown-up together on the same continent, shaping the values and understanding of a nation of people, Americans. 

About Capitalism:

Adam Smith basically said when every person has the right to do what is best for him or herself, there will be more goods and services for everyone.  And for 245 years it has worked out that way. 

However, as I understand Smith’s ideas, he failed to consider and deal with two critical factors that are presenting themselves in the 21st century.  Those two factors are; limited natural resources, and human greed.  The Earth’s air is filling with pollutants that are changing climate and making it unhealthy to breath.  Water supplies are less than what are needed and becoming more polluted throughout the Earth.  Soil, that grows our food, is polluted with fertilizers, insecticides, herbicides and eroded of its texture throughout the Earth.  The United Nations tells us more than a million living species on Earth are facing extinction and the oceans are becoming polluted and less supportive of a variety of life. Capitalism has been the vehicle for tremendous national power and comfort for citizens and it is painfully evident that it has caused so much damage to the Earth that the life-style it has enabled is unsustainable. 

Increasing technology produced by the capitalistic system cannot offsets lack of water, atmospheric pollution, soil depletion, extinct species of plants and animals and other irreversible impacts on basic Earth resources.

Morality of it all:

Capitalism is amoral, it has no moral compass, whatever an individual (person or company) can do to make money is ok with capitalism.  Government is the institution that has the authority and responsibility to determine what is right, legal and moral within a society.  We are well aware of laws and regulations that limit personal and corporate behavior in relationship with other people or companies. These laws and regulations are boundaries to capitalism’s behavior.  However, governments have established very few laws that address respectful treatment and rights for non-human life.  There are few laws limiting how non-human life and natural resources (such as air and water) can be used, abused, or sustained.  This is because these non-human lives and inarticulate resources do not have “standing” in the human legal systems.  As a result, the health of Earth is threatened with more than one million living species in danger of extinction, Earth’s diseases are getting worse and they are caused by people.

There needs to be changes, but change can only occur if we people care about future people and the Earth as much or more than we care about NOW.

The Economics profession

Capitalism will not change itself.  The gatekeepers of the economy, economists, have been co-opted by the lords of industry and banking.  Economists are trained and committed to studying the minutia of economies to provide information that will benefit those with enough wealth to manipulate the entire economy to their advantage.  Government economists are often complicit in these efforts to concentrate wealth. The profession should be developing economic strategies that will lead to long term sustainability of the basic earth resources and sustainability of human societies that will provide health, comfort and peace with all life on Earth.  But they’re not interested in the next century, their efforts are toward economic growth and the next quarter’s profit, or loss.  Economists don’t seem to know that NOTHING GROWS FOREVER, and certainly not an economy.  Long-term (a century plus) thinking and planning needs to be incorporated into every economic strategy, but economists are not leading that way.

Governments:

Democratic government will not approach the problem of limited natural resources.  Government’s primary responsibility is to the security of the citizenry:  military security; security from crime, violent crime and monetary and white-collar crime; security of safe food and medicine.  Governments do not look generations ahead, in a democracy, the people’s representatives are elected for short terms (2 to 6 years at a time) and their interests do not extend beyond their term. 

Governments have the power, and responsibility, to limit the use and abuse of all-natural resources so that future generations will be sustained.  But they won’t.  Whether they are, democracies, autocracy, dictatorship, theocracies, socialist or whatever, they will do what is most beneficial to individuals in power, in the short-term. 

Governments have the power to limit the amount of pollutants in the air, water, soil and oceans, the destruction of plants (forests) and animals, but they won’t because, at this time, we people are not demanding it.  

A way toward sustainability:

Democracy is the form of government that can make changes with the least amount of domestic violence.   The formula for change is, Public Awareness, followed by Public Education, followed by Public Voting.   With the exception of America’s Civil War, this formula has been the process for great civil changes in national values, policies and direction in America.

As far as I can see, there are three institutions in our culture that have a chance to focus public attention on the long-term imperatives that we must live within to protect the productivity of the Earth’s natural resources,

These institutions are:  our education system, the news media, and the entertainment industry.  These three institutions have the potential to raise public awareness of the urgency of addressing the Earth’s illnesses, and educate the public about the issues, and to show what is at stake.  When the public is committed to a course of corrective action, the votes for change will be there and politicians in a Democracy will act on behalf of the people and the Earth as well as their own interests. 

A vote is a statement of hope.  This strategy is a long-shot, but possibly the only one our grandchildren and beyond have for a peaceful and comfortable life on Earth.  

Who’s going to do it and why?

Only the United States can move the world to help heal the Earth, because:

• The US is a Democracy and can and will respond to public pressure, i.e. votes.
• The US can change, no other country in history or present has been able to change as drastically and as rapidly as the US has demonstrated.
• The US has strong institutions served by competent and honest bureaucracies.
• The US has such a strong economy it can influence world-wide policies through rewards, sanctions, and other non-military means.

Why?  Because, if actions are not taken to heal the Earth, generations, beginning with the Millennials, will begin to face issues the world is now seeing in Yemen.  War over resources, food insecurity and mass starvation.  The United States will not be insulated from these issues as resources become more scarce throughout the world.

We need to get our priorities right and to that end, we must recognize that economic growth is not the answer to a sustainable future.  We must instead, insist that our government representatives consider the Earth’s ecology with as much or more urgency as they consider our economy.

And there you have it from my big brother, Jerry.  A very thoughtful piece.  And if you liked this article, there is a lot more.  A couple years ago he published a book, FORESTS AND PEOPLE.  If you are at all interested in world history and some answers to the questions, (why is the earth the way it is today and what were the factors that caused it to be this way?) then I’m sure you will enjoy his book, I certainly did and so did my wife.  It is down-to-earth (no pun intended) interesting reading with a lot of personal anecdotes about the wonders of nature. 

Marv Covault 

B

April 25^th, Joe Biden threw his hat in the ring and became the 20^th democratic candidate for president. 

HERE ARE BIDEN’S THOUGHTS SEVERAL MONTHS AGO:

OK, that’s it, I am going to run for president again but I believe it will be best if I just let the anticipation and will-he/won’t-he debate raise expectations for a few months.  I’ll let all the newbies jump in early and get a sense of what they are promising.  Sometime next April seems to be about the right time to declare. 

But rather than waste time, I might as well work on the first draft of my coming-out speech.  And since I was this country’s number two guy for eight years, there has to be a lot I can talk about. 

I COULD BEGIN WITH THE ECONOMY:

As I recall, we struggled the whole eight years to get to a 2% GDP growth.  But our economists were telling us 2% was the “new normal” and we had a campaign going to convince the American people of this. It seemed to be working. 

Manufacturing kept departing overseas but there didn’t seem to be any way to stop it. We were definitely moving towards a service economy.  What can I say good about that? Hmmm.

The economic stability of the middle class kept slipping downward but we were doing the best we could. 

The millions on food stamps set new highs every year but maybe I shouldn’t bring that up. 

The problem as I see it right now is this: unemployment is at all-time lows, wages are up, the GDP is over 3% growth, hundreds of thousands of new jobs are created every month, our “identity voting groups”, like women, black Americans, and Hispanics now have jobs, are making good money and coming off food stamps by the millions.

On second thought I don’t believe the folks out there really understand economics anyway so maybe I won’t bring that up on day one.  (however, I do need to make a note to myself to figure out how in the hell Trump did a total economic turnaround in his first year and maybe I can find a way for Barack and me to take credit for it. 

FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND FOREIGN POLICY: 

OK, here is familiar territory since before being VP I was chairman of the Senate Foreign Affairs committee.

In retrospect, Barack’s 10-speech “apology tour” right out of the starting blocks may have set us back a little as all our allies and enemies were saying, “what is that all about; is the US with us or not?”

Our focus was on the Middle East.  We told everyone exactly when we were going to pull out of Iraq and by golly we did it.  I thought of it as our “cut and run” policy.  Kind of a catchy phrase but maybe not quite right for the coming out speech.  How could we possible have known that it would become the “GO” signal for ISIS?

Barack sent me to Iraq to put together a Status of Forces Agreement.  What a waste of time; I just sort of blew that one off.  Just because a Status of Forces Agreement has been the center piece for decades in our very successful relations with Germany, Japan and South Korea, that is no reason the think we needed one in Iraq. Or is it?

Barack and I were sure he hit just the right tone when he called ISIS, “The JV squad”.  How were we expected to know ISIS would grow, carve out a country, establish a government, collect taxes, sell oil to finance expansion into 40 countries and terrorize the world? 

We knew China was a key element in our foreign policy but were caught up a little short when Barack went to China and they would not provide steps to get off Air Force One.  Well, any way he crawled out the back end, had his meeting with (what’s his name) the Chinese leader and lectured him about humanitarian rights. 

The “red line” ultimatum we made over Assad’s use of chemical weapons against thousands of his own people, seemed really Presidential and a good idea.  I still don’t understand why all our allies made such a big deal out of the fact that Assad did it again and we did nothing.  What were we supposed to do, nuc em? 

As I recall we had a pretty cool relationship with the Saudi King; not sure how all that came about.

Our real focus was to cozy up with Iran at any cost, literally.  There was the $400 million in cash on pallets aboard what was to have been a secret middle-of-the-night unmarked airplane arrival. I thought we had that one nailed tight. If we hadn’t been caught the four American prisoners released the next day would have looked like the result of great White House diplomacy.  Oh well what’s done is done. 

Then someone leaked that Barack and I fixed up a deal for a $1.7 billion cash payment to Iran in a settlement of a decades-old arbitration claim.  Congress was a little upset because they had not been consulted but they got over it and the press didn’t hammer us too bad.  A bunch of republicans were complaining that we should not be giving billions in cash to the world’s number one state-sponsor of terrorism but we had to do something to keep them negotiating our nuclear agreement, even if there would eventually be American blood on that cash.

Ultimately, we got the Iran agreement and a lot of good press with it.  But it didn’t seem to Barack and me that we could risk sending it to Congress for ratification because the loop holes may actually allow Iran to build a nuc in 12 years.  But 12 years is a long way away.  Maybe I should just avoid that one; after all most people just don’t understand how to conduct foreign affairs. 

I believe the hands-off approach with North Korea was all we could do.  How were Barack and I to know that after they nearly completed their nuclear and long-range missile testing, the NK foreign minister would stand before the United Nations Assembly and say, “a North Korean strike against a major US city is inevitable”. 

Barack made a speech once about NATO nations not living up to their signed agreement to budget 2% of their GDP for defense while the US paid most of NATO funding.  It was a good speech, what else could we do?

Looking back, maybe I will save my foreign affairs accomplishment for later in the campaign.  Maybe I will get lucky and it won’t even come up. 

IMMIGRATION:

Open borders seemed like a good policy or at the very least catch-and-release.  Immigration has been at the heart of America since our founding.  What’s different today?  Maybe some drugs, gang members, fugitives, terrorists, sex slaves and cartel backing today but still it’s the American way.  I think.

I’m sure this will be an issue but maybe I shouldn’t lead with it. 

TRADE AGREEMENTS: 

 All the big ones, China, Europe, NAFTA, seemed to be moving along with no complaints from our trading partners.  I could see no reason for Barack and me to put that on the front burner.  There was the half-trillion-dollar annual trade deficit for the US but we didn’t seem to have any trouble borrowing the money to pay for it. 

But, there again, maybe I should not be the one to bring it up. I’ll let one of the newbie candidates open that can of worms.  

OUR SCANDAL-FREE ADMINISTRATION FOR EIGHT YEARS:

This may be my opener; we made sure the Executive Branch was squeaky clean and absolutely transparent.  

Most folks have forgotten that in 2013 the IRS revealed that it had selected over 400 conservative political groups for intensive scrutiny based on their names and political themes.  Anyway, I recall Barack issuing a statement that the IRS shouldn’t do that.  Let sleeping dogs lie.

The Justice Department program to give guns to the cartels seemed like a good idea.  It still might have worked if one of the guns had not been used to kill one of our agents.  Anyway, no one was supposed to know about the program. 

Also, I wish our Attorney General, Loretta Lynch, would have been a little more discrete when she met with Bill Clinton on the tarmac in Arizona at what was to have been a secret meeting.  The problem was that Bill and Hillary were, at the time, subjects in an FBI investigation.  Somehow not all Americans believed they just, “talked about our grandchildren.”   The mainstream media pretty much gave us a pass on that one also so not a big deal. 

The one that really galled me was on 5 July, 2016 when FBI Director, Comey, addressed the nation on the year-long investigation concerning Hillary’s unsecured server.  He spent about ten minutes telling us in great detail how many times she violated the US Code and published some of our highest classified information in the clear. Then he concluded she was not guilty.  Comey’s presentation was just too messy, unprofessional, and ill-timed because it was exactly when Barack was making speeches telling Americans “Hillary Clinton is the best qualified candidate for president in history.” 

That damned Comey, if he would have nailed Hillary like he should have, she would have been forced to quit her campaign, I would have swept into the Democratic Convention and been nominated.  I would be president today with Elizabeth Warren VP and wouldn’t have to go through all this again.  Barack should have fired Comey that very afternoon for stupidity if nothing else. 

Also, I’m thinking this campaign isn’t going to be much fun because I can’t be seen hugging all the pretty girls.  In this “me to” environment someone is likely to call me on it. 

That reminds me, I better think through that whole Clinton/Trump campaign thing in case the Mueller investigation doesn’t turn out the way we expect it to.  We certainly don’t want anyone looking too closely at why Trump got investigated.  But, not to worry, Mueller will come through for us.

Maybe we were not completely scandal free.  I have a few months to think about it. Also makes me wonder what Barack is actually going to put in his library. 

MILITARY READINESS:

It is always a positive to say good things about the military; greatest in the world, best trained fighting men and women, etc. Good stuff. 

I doubt that anyone will go back and look at the military readiness at the end of our eight years.  Is it a big deal that only three of the US Army’s 58 brigade combat teams were ready for combat?   The Navy’s fleet was the smallest in nearly 100 years.  Eighty percent of Marine aviation units did not have the minimum number of aircraft they need for training and basic operations.  The air force is the smallest and oldest it has ever been, each aircraft averaging 27 years old and less than half are prepared to conduct combat operations.

These statistics on the military readiness were somewhat understandable after the fall of the Soviet Union and the end of the cold war 30 years ago.  But for this to happen while engaged in a global war on terrorism may be a hard sell.  I would hate for some young whipper snapper reporter to bring up those stats in the first few days.  I’ll just plan to make some military remarks later on. 

Another thing to think through is my age.  It is a fact that I will be a few decades older than most except Bernie during the initial part of the campaign.  I need some catchy statement……let me think……maybe something like, I will not make age an issue in this campaign.  I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponents’ youth and inexperience.  Sounds great, hmmm, and a little too familiar.  Maybe someone has already used that.  More work to do.

HEALTH CARE:

In almost every poll, health care is always one of the top three concerns of the American people.  I thought Barack and I did a good job of rolling out Obamacare with the hard sell that it would save the average family $2500 a year, allow you to keep your current health plan and keep you doctor.  In retrospect some of that may have been a little over-stated; well maybe a lot overstated.  In fact, none of it actually happened and health care costs for the average family skyrocketed, in some states increasing 100% a year. 

But the good news on health care is that the democrats have done a fabulous job of brainwashing the American people into believing the high costs they are suffering through for health care are the fault of the Republicans because they cannot come up with a plan to fix Obamacare.  The press will be with us all the way so if we just keep hammering away blaming the republicans, we should be OK.  Health care may be my lead-off topic.

FAST FORWARD TO THE FIRST OF APRIL, 2019.  BIDEN IS THINKING THROUGH HIS CANDIDENCY LAUNCH VIDEO. 

I spent a lot of time on that first draft but somehow it seems to ring a little hollow.  And after listening to the other nineteen democrat/liberal/progressive/socialist candidates, it seems the trend is to do one of three things.  One, go beyond far-left with a bunch of outlandish, undefinable, unaffordable hair-brained new policies.  Or two, just talk around the major issues facing America today and, in effect, say nothing.  Or three, join the crowd and just attack Trump. 

All that stuff in the first draft can be left for later.  The objective is to defeat Trump then get on with what I really want to do as President.  Irrespective of the praise Jessie Jackson and Al Sharpton heaped on Donald Trump a few years ago for his decades of work helping minorities and the poor, the vocal left and the press have millions of Americans believing trump is a racist.  While I have no knowledge that it is true, we can keep a full-court-press on the issue.  If enough people say it is true, more will believe it and racism will take on a life of its own. 

SO ON 25 APRIL, 2019 JOE BIDEN SAID: “We are in a battle for the soul of this nation.”

He joined the hatemongers of the democratic/liberal/progressive/socialist left because the bottom line is, that is about all he has to work with. 

JOE BIDEN’S THINKING THIS PAST WEEKEND:

This next year is going to be a real drag arguing with all those other strange-name want-a-be candidates who are mostly clueless and don’t have a chance of getting the nomination. 

SAYING TO HIMSELF:  Just remember Joe, you don’t have to win every primary.  You just have to do enough to get to the 2020 Democratic Convention.  If my age has become too much of an issue, I will tell the attendees that I am only planning to serve four years.  Also, I will ask Michele Obama to be my Vice President and she can then run and take over in 2024 for eight years.  They will go crazy.  It will be a slam dunk. 

JOE, REMINDER TO SELF: While I’m thinking about the convention, I need to make a note to insure we have an American flag on the stage this time.  I recall at the beginning of the 2016 convention The Daily Caller reported that, “It doesn’t look like there are any American Flags.  The stage is bland and grey, with no red, white or blue present. A thorough look at the crowd present also turns up no American flags”.

FINALLY, IN CLOSING:

MEMO TO JOE BIDEN

Date: 26 April, 2019

From:  The American People

Subject:  How to Not Win

Joe, four things you need to lock into your brain and believe:

One, Americans are sick and tired of the culture of hate the Left and Media have perpetrated on us and continue to do so.  Remember, those on the Right, have no one to hate.  The Republicans are not a part of the hatemonger movement.  If you take a deep breath, site back and be intellectually honest with yourself you will begin to understand that. The best way to, “win the battle for the soul of this nation” is to lead the democrat/liberal/progressive/socialists away from the hate culture. 

Two, if you believe you can win an election by just hammering on the baseless theme that, “Trump is a racist” you will be sorely disappointed.  Your cohorts and the media are doing a good job of pursuing a campaign to get millions saying, “Trump is a racist”, in the hope that the remainder will sign up to that thesis because of the brainless tactic, “If everyone is saying it, it must be true.”

Three, if you want to win you have to acknowledge that we the people are better off today than we were in 2016; much better.  Then you have to convince us that you can build on that situation better than President Trump can.  Lots of luck with that.   If you don’t, you fail again. 

Four, “third time is a charm” is just a senseless saying with no basis in fact. 

Signed:  WE THE PEOPLE

Marv Covault