No one knows what today’s election results will be. But, I have a reason to suggest that the Republicans will win big. I call it the Roseanne Barr model.
Recall last year ABC decided to bring back the Roseanne sitcom and there was great anticipation because she was going to play her traditional family role but with a bent towards conservative political views. It worked. Her show not only became the number one Nielson rated show on TV but it also got the highest rating in history for that category of show.
So, you ask, where is the “model”? Let me explain. Throughout the history of Nielson TV rating the show that held the number one spot also held the top spot in the greater New York City and Los Angeles areas. That is, you could not make it to number one unless you carried those two markets, or at least that was the conventional thinking.
Roseanne’s show hit number one nationally while simultaneously her New York area rating was number 20 and number 30 in Los Angeles.
Conclusion: from the west suburbs of New York City to the east side of Los Angeles there is a lot of space and a different America. And it was that different America that surprised us all and elected President Trump two years ago. All the polls and most of the prognosticators were wrong and surprised. Some were devastated and still are.
Those “in-between citizens” are pragmatic; see a problem, solve it, politics be damned. They see and live a bigger picture of America. They are more comfortable with innovation and change. They are still out there and voting today.
There is a second reason I am predicting success today for the Republican party. I am a news junkie and start my day at 0500 with news. I have a TV at the barn and catch news snippets throughout the day. The last few months leading up to today’s election I have been focused on the Democratic platform. What is it? I watch the Democrat’s best and brightest every day unsuccessfully try to explain what they want to do to move the country forward. Tax, impeach, leave immigration policy alone, federalize big businesses with massive new regulations, government health care, reduce military spending, that’s what I come away with. I don’t see the in-between (NY to LA) folks thinking that this is progress or good for middle Americans.
The Democrats are adamant about moving forward on one issue and it is one of the great political ironies of our time. In this election, the Democrat’s number one issue is health care reform. They are running hard blaming the Republicans for not fixing health care. The in-place health care system they are talking about is Obamacare. Every single Democrat in Congress voted for Obamacare, without reading it, and it has proven to be the single largest “tax” ever foisted on the middle class and now the Republicans get blamed for it.
Aint politics wonderful?
Marv Covault